Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

“Mr Keynes and the ‘Classics’” Again: A Methodological Enquiry

Keynes is usually interpreted as proposing, or intending to propose an original theory of employment and income. However, this paper shows that Keynes was actually proposing more than a theoretical alternative. He saw himself breaking away from the ‘Classics’ at the connected levels of theory and methodology. This paper thus argues that modern economists going back to the old story of the relation between Mr. Keynes and the ‘Classics’ can learn something about several controversial issues in macroeconomics and methodology like for instance the role of experiments and formal arguments in economics.The paper is the development of a chapter in my Ph.D. thesis and has greatly benefited from discussion with Mark Blaug, Anna Carabelli, Bill Gerrard, Marc Lavoie, Tony Lawson, Roy Rotheim, and especially Geoff Harcourt and Malcolm Sawyer. Errors and omissions are, of course, solely my responsibility. A first draft of the paper was presented at the UK Autumn HET Conference (Glasgow Caledonian University, September 1999) and the AISPE Conference (University of Florence, September 1999). Finally, the paper was completed when I was visiting Research Professor at the Economics Department and C-FEPS, University of Missouri Kansas City (UMKC), Kansas City (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Clare Hall College and CCEPP, University of Cambridge, Cambridge (UK). I would like to express appreciation to members of those institutions for providing a stimulating and pleasant working environment.     

It is Time for National Action to Reach the Lisbon Goals

Summary During the second half of 2004, the Netherlands held the Presidency of the European Union. One of the conferences during the Presidency was titled ‘More people at work: Policies to activate Europe’s labour potential’. It was organised on October 25 and 26, 2004 at the Beurs van Berlage in Amsterdam. The conference focused on four particular areas: the reconciliation of work and family life, activating social security systems, mobility and training. As a starting point for the discussions during the conference, academics who are experts in the specific policy areas were asked to write a paper. In this special edition of ‘De economist’ you will find a presentation of three of their papers. In my contribution I will explain why I have put the focus of this conference on increasing labour supply and more in particular why these four themes have been chosen as relevant for Member States and the Union. As time has not stopped after the Netherlands’ Presidency I will also take this opportunity to show that the conclusions of the conference have become an integrated part of the revitalised Lisbon strategy.     

Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States

Summary  The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the ‘traditional method’ for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this ‘import-adjusted method’ is more complex than the ‘traditional method’, it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.      

Urban Economic Development and Restorative Justice: Exploring the Relationship Between Creativity and Crime Control

This article examines the relationship between local economic development and a new approach to the problem of crime–i.e., ‘restorative justice.’ The latter concept is introduced and briefly explored, followed by a short review of Richard Florida's recently proposed theory of creative-class economic development. Against the backdrop of these theoretical innovations, an empirical question that arises is whether the specific character of creative-class economic growth enhances the probability that a given city will adopt a restorative justice paradigm in its efforts to reduce crime. Addressing this question using logistic regression analysis, the article provides preliminary evidence that creative-class economic development encourages experimentation with innovative approaches to social problems such as crime. Missouri Western State University—U.S.A. This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the 58th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Chicago, Illinois, October 8, 2004.     

Economic crisis: Management and innovative development issues

This article discusses the reasons for Russia’s vulnerability to the factors of the economic crisis. We propose a conception based on A.A. Bogdanov’s general theory of crisis and I. Shumpeter’s economic cycles. The concept involves crisis management as an alternative to traditional anticrisis approaches and the basis of a strategy for recovering from a crisis and the long-term innovative development of the economy.     

The evolution of the monetary system: Future possibilities

Summary This article discusses in the first place the functioning of floating exchange rates; the tendency to volatility and to unnecessary fluctuations is explained. The conclusion is drawn that the authorities of the main countries should cooperate in exchange rate policies that would bring about a greater stability in exchange rate movements. The article then sketches the historical development which brought us to the present multiple reserve currency system. The functioning of this system is analysed and some suggestions are presented for a more satisfactory management of this system by central banks, possibly along guidelines tobe developed in the IMF. Finally some possibilities are outlined to develop a stabler and better system in the future by creating a more attractive market-oriented SDR-substitution account in the IMF. This article is based on important parts of two speeches which I have given recently: ‘The changing monetary system; evolution and reform’ (20 years' anniversary Central Bank of Malaysia, Feb. 1979) ‘Managing reserves in the 1980s’ (Second International Monetary Conference, Philadelphia, Nov. 1980).     

Relative income position,individual and social income satisfaction,and income inequality

Summary The survival probability as estimated by an individual is,ceteris paribus supposed to depend on his relative income position in a set of reference incomes. The relative income position is thus defined in close connection to the preference formation theory of Kapteyn. It is shown that then this survival probability, called ‘utility,’ may be equated to the relative income position. A nice result of this approach is the possibility to formulate a utilitarian welfare function, which leads to the definition of income inequality measures. It is shown that the use of sets of reference incomes may lead to considerably smaller measured inequality.     

An Activating Social Security System

Convergence to the Lisbon employment targets requires absorbing large pools of long-term jobseekers, increasing labour force participation and dealing with a sizeable informal sector, composed for the most of low-productivity jobs. The purpose of this paper is to review the main design features of an activating social security strategy reconciling shifts of these three margins with the redistributive institutions characterising the European landscape. Evidence of experimental studies is reviewed. It is argued that EU supra-national authorities should confine themselves to promoting the exchange of information about best practices in welfare-to-work policies as implementation of this approach should be done at a decentralised level. Issues related to the implementation of this activating strategy in the countries that are more distant from the Lisbon targets are also discussed. A first draft of this paper was prepared for the Dutch Presidency Conference on ‘More People at Work’, Amsterdam, 25–26 October, 2004. I am grateful to participants in that conference, Henk Don and two anonymous referees for valuable comments.     

The influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates

Summary This article focuses onthe influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates. Four theories are discussed which try to explain the factors influencing the term-structure. It proved that the four theories could be distinguished according to three aspects which have been investigated by means of analysis of variance and of the estiamtion of two reduced form equations with Dutch data during the period 1950 through 1973. It could be concluded that the liquidity preference theory and to a smaller extent the preferred habitat theory fitted the data relatively well. From this it followed that the influence of debt management on the term-structure of interest rates is rather small. This article is an elaboration of a paper written at the end of the author’s study at Groningen State University. He thanks Dr. S. K. Kuipers, Mr. P. W. Otter and Mr. B. S. Wilpstra, all connected with the Groningen State University, for their advice during the writing of the paper. He also thanks Mr. A. van der Veen, who took care of all the calculation which was necessary for the elaboration. He further thanks Dr. M. M. G. Fase for the comments he made on a previous version of this article. The author works at the Central Bureau of Statistics in The Hague.     

Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates on base money—or equivalently ‘taxing money’—as a means for overcoming the zero bound on short-term nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates starting from the ‘taxing money’ proposal of Silvio Gesell up to current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. It is demonstrated that ‘taxing money’ proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step, the article points out that besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates.     

Microfoundations and Hicksian monetary theory

Summary John Hicks was the first economist to use a general equilibrium framework as a foundation for a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. A critical assessment of his work in this area is used to evaluate the contributions of the ‘micro-foundations’ discussions of the 1970’s. It is noted that Hicks’s starting point, the question of the role of money in a general equilibrium framework, is precisely where the current debate has arrived some fifty years later. This delay, and the foundations debate, were due in large part to Hicks’s own attempts to interpret Keynes’s theory in terms of his own, original framework. Suggestions and comments from P. Davidson, O. Steiger, and the editor, as well as the participants of seminars in the University of Bremen and the Economics Institute of the Faculty of Statistics of the University of Rome are acknowledged without implication of responsibility.     

Regional Economic Integration and the Location of Multinational Firms

A theoretical model of international location is applied to a process of regional economic integration in which a set of countries mutually removes barriers to trade and investment, thus overcoming the traditional ‘hub and spoke’ setup of regional agreements. The theoretical results are matched with actual trade and foreign investment data from a sample of some 4,200 multinational firms who have invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the 1990–1999 period. Controlling for the effects of the reduction in trade barriers through a proper specification of a gravity model, it is found that the conventional outcome of an agglomeration of economic activities in the centre of the integrating area does not necessarily hold. Multilateral regional integration agreements can act as an important dispersion force significantly driving the location of multinational firms. A panel probit econometric exercise confirms the findings. JEL no. F12, F15, F21     

Een dynamisch duopoliemodel II

Summary This paper is a continuation of ‘A Dynamic Duopoly Model’ (De Economist, 1970, pp. 458–490). According to the argument given in that paper, each duopolist changes his price twice in each period: first, there is an autonomous change, and, secondly, an induced one to neutralize the effect of the autonomous price change of the other duopolist. In the present paper, however, it is assumed that both duopolists change their prices only once a period. These ‘combined’ price changes are partly autonomous and partly induced; only the duopolist himself could tell in how far they are autonomous or induced. The steady state solution of this model corresponds with the endogenously determined duopoly solution of the earlier investigations.     

Is there an Anglo-American corporate governance model?

This paper questions the existence of an Anglo-American model of corporate governance and capitalism. Significant differences between the UK and US models of corporate governance are identified. The UK is a principles orientated system based more on voluntary codes operated on a ‘comply or explain’ basis, whilst the US system is more rules based and litigious. The UK focuses more on ex ante protection of ‘outside’ shareholders, whilst the US focuses on ex post protection of share traders. Institutional investors are expected to play a more prominent and wide ranging role in corporate governance in the UK than the US, though the evidence on their voting behaviour and wider ‘engagement’ activity is not readily available. The explosion of private equity led leveraged buy-out activity in the mid 2000s challenges the efficiency of both models and could be a harbinger of a ‘new capitalism’; relying more on incentive compatible remuneration packages and less on public disclosure and market discipline. Alternatively, it could simply be driven by the tax advantages currently enjoyed by debt over equity, the special deferred capital gains (‘carried interest’) tax treatment enjoyed by private equity, low (long as well as short term) real interest rates (‘cheap money’), and rising equity prices.     

Customs union and technical efficiency

Summary Customs unions are frequently suggested to have a salutary effect upon the efficiency of production. However, this is not part of received customs union theory. It is shown that the essence of the competitive ‘cold shower’ is very difficult to accommodate in standard theory, given its underlying theory of intrafirm behaviour, the assumed nature of competitive firm behaviour and the static framework. Neither can it be satisfactorily worked into X-inefficiency theory. A Schumpeterian view of competitive firm behaviour can explain how the customs union will be perceived by certain firms as an opportunity, causing them to intensify experiments and search for new forms of production, attempt new intrafirm decison rules and change market behaviour. This paper was written while still at the European University Institute, Florence.     

How to Share Our Risks Efficiently? Principles for Optimal Social Insurance and Pension Provision

The efficient organisation of social insurance is an important problem for modern societies. The paper discusses evidence that shocks in labour income have largely persistent effects and analyses the implications of this observation for the optimal design of institutions for wage contracting, social security, and pensions. In an optimal contract, wages reflect variations in individual productivity for incentives reasons. However, the optimal contract insures workers against firm specific shocks. These can better be born by shareholders who can diversify risks on capital markets. Progressive income taxation provides further insurance. On top of that there is scope for additional insurance based on ‘verifiable’ information on unemployment and health conditions. As final form of ‘insurance’, the paper analyzes the role of self-insurance. Income shocks can be absorbed partially by precautionary saving. The individual’s saving plans for retirement and for precaution are, therefore, related issues. In an institutional setting with mandatory saving for retirement, an integration of disability and unemployment insurance on the one hand and the pension system on the other hand in a lifetime savings account allows for this interrelation. The paper analyzes how to deal with the uncertainty in the return on savings in the framework of a lifetime saving account.     

Income distribution: Second thoughts

Summary As a follow-up of his book on income distribution the author reformulates his version on the scarcity theory of income from productive contributions. The need to introduce into an earnings theory several job characteristics, non-cognitive as well as cognitive, and the corresponding personality traits is stressed, the latter subdivided into innate and learnable capabilities. The theory is presented in two alternative mathematical versions: one where job and person characteristics are continuous and one where they have discrete values and their frequencies assume continuous values. Although, mainly in the United States, numerous empirical inquiries have been made, job characteristics and the corresponding personal characteristics have not been included in sufficient number.I want to express my profound gratitude to Professor Robert H. Haveman, who not only published a deep-delving review article on my book Income Distribution: Analysis and Policies but also commented on an earlier text of the present article. I also owe a great debt to Professor Jan Pen who in a long series of discussions challenged a number of my concepts and figures. Finally I want to thank Dr. S. K. Kuipers for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

How Influential is Economics?

Economists often claim that their discipline has a great influence on the economy. An analysis of the existing literature reveals, however, that little convincing empirical evidence exists. The two approaches used are subject to major shortcomings. The ‘Economics Production Function’ relating the input of economic ideas to economic outcomes, is faced with major estimation problems. The ‘Revealed Behaviour Approach’ of choosing to study economics is based on very restrictive assumptions. It is argued that the ‘Case Study Approach’ analysing specific policy instances constitutes a more promising avenue and should be undertaken to identify more general patterns of influence.     

Exploring the Structure of the Illegal Market for Cannabis

Summary This paper explores the middle and retail levels of the illegal market for cannabis in New Zealand using national household drug survey data. Those who reported purchasing half or full ounces of cannabis were defined as middle level market participants, while those who purchased smaller weights or merely used cannabis were defined as retail level participants. Those who had purchased cannabis were then further categorised as either cannabis ‘buyers’ (i.e. those who only purchased sufficient cannabis for their own consumption needs) or cannabis ‘dealers’ based on whether the surplus of cannabis they had, after their own personal consumption was deducted, exceeded the legal definition of cannabis dealing (i.e. possession of 28 g of cannabis or more). Nine per cent of those who had purchased cannabis in the previous year were categorised as middle level participants with 69% of these defined as middle level dealers and 31% as middle level buyers. Middle level cannabis dealers were projected to earn, on average, $2927 (NZD) net annual profit from selling surplus (rate of return of 34%). There was a wide variation in the projected net earnings of the middle level cannabis dealers with the majority earning only modest incomes (bottom 50% – $260 per year, top 10% – $25000 per year). Participants at all levels of the market commonly reported receiving cannabis for ‘free’ and this is likely to reflect the social sharing of cannabis during group consumption and non-cash payments for cannabis. This barter and gift giving tradition may provide cannabis users with a degree of insulation from any price increases for cannabis brought about by law enforcement activity. Cannabis selling creates a convenient source of income for heavy cannabis users to finance their own personal cannabis consumption, which may also dampen the impact of any rise in price brought about by law enforcement success.The 2003 HBS-Drug Use was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Health and carried out as part of the Public Health Intelligence (PHI) Health Behaviours Survey Monitor. The statistical design for the 2003 survey was completed by Dr. Megan Pledger at SHORE, and by James L. Reilly from Statistical-Insights. The questionnaire was adapted and extended from the National Drug Survey questionnaire for the Health Behaviours programme by Dr. Chris Wilkins. Data collection was managed by Dr. Chris Wilkins, Rachael Lane, Joe Morley and Mary Blade. The statistical analysis of 2003 HBS-Drug Use was completed by Paul Sweetsur. The analysis in this paper was partly funded by the New Zealand Police.