结构可靠度在水工结构设计中的应用研究

当前,结构可靠度理论及其应用研究已取得很大进展,并且在水工结构的设计和研究领域得到具体运用。文章根据现有的资料和文献,对结构可靠度在水工结构设计领域的研究和应用现状进行了概括性总结,针对存在的问题提出了一些建议,为我国在水工结构可靠度的进一步研究提供了有益借鉴。     

结构可靠度在水工结构设计中的应用研究

当前,结构可靠度理论及其应用研究已取得很大进展,并且在水工结构的设计和研究领域得到具体运用。文章根据现有的资料和文献,对结构可靠度在水工结构设计领域的研究和应用现状进行了概括性总结,针对存在的问题提出了一些建议,为我国在水工结构可靠度的进一步研究提供了有益借鉴。     

Collective assessment of the human resources management field: Meta-analytic needs and theory development prospects for the future

The other articles in this special issue of Human Resource Management Review present meta-analyses of specific topic areas, or articles on methodological issues associated with meta-analyses, within the human resources management field. Ours is a bit different in that we do not present actual meta-analytic results, but instead conduct a thorough review of the field in order to identify areas where meta-analyses have not been conducted. Then, we discuss why such analyses have not been provided, suggestions for how we might like to see research proceed in such areas, and also implications for theory development in these areas of the field. We conclude our paper with some additional thoughts on issues to keep in mind as we seek to utilize meta-analysis to its fullest potential, and thus yield the best results possible.     

Location decisions of high-technology firms: A case study

Forty-six firms in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area were surveyed to determine factors affecting their location decisions. These firms spanned the range of “high-technology,” including biomedical, computers, integrated manufacturing, optics, remote sensing, and others. The firms were generally small, rapidly growing, new companies with a large percentage of their personnel devoted to research and development activities. The majority of the firms were founded in the area, rather than attracted from the outside; most did not consider sites outside of the Ann Arbor area when choosing their current site. According to the survey, the perceived strengths of the Ann Arbor area are its universities, quality of life, transportation networks, and work force. On the negative side, state and local taxes are seen as the area's greatest weaknesses. The area's lack of venture capital, certain local government regulations, and the perceived unavailability of certain support services and facilities are also troublesome. This set of positive and negative factors demonstrates how high-technology firms are different from traditional manufacturing firms in their location decisions. Consequently, any economic development strategies generated with the goal of developing high-technology firms in mind must be carefully tailored to the specific characteristics and needs of those firms.     

Beyond belief: A benchmark for human resources

Many Human Resource (HR) professionals feel and believe that they have made progress during the 1980s. Unfortunately, without data to benchmark progress, assessments must depend on perception rather than evidence. To move beyond belief towards a national HR database, this article reports research on over 10,000 individuals in 1200 businesses in 91 firms. It establishes a benchmark for HR practices and HR professionals. It also highlights areas where HR professionals may focus attention to become more successful as business partners.     

岩溶地区桩基设计施工及监控措施探讨

随着桩基施工技术与设计方法研究的不断深入,岩溶地区桥梁桩基的设计理论、施工技术及处理方法的研究也变得日益重要。文章结合某桥桩基的施工技术,研究岩溶地区桩基设计、施工应该考虑的一些因素,从监理的角度对监控措施进行了简要的分析。     

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis Using Latent and Manifest Variables

The relative virtues of quantitative and qualitative research have been vigorously debated. Several researchers recommend combining methodologies but there is little evidence in the literature to suggest how different research methods might be integrated (Bryman, 1988). The current study addresses this deficiency in the research by examining the use of latent variables in quantitative and qualitative research as a means of blending the two approaches. A study of entrepreneurial Locus of Control where quantitative and qualitative data were available illustrates the methodological issues. Analysis of quantitative data was conducted using LISREL (7.20) and qualitative data were categorised using NUD.IST (Non-numerical Unstructured Data Indexing Searching and Theorising computer software). Detailed comparisons are made between the methods described in this paper and other approaches to content analysis.     

陕西凤县县城周边农村农房抗震效果研究及优化

2008年5月12日汶川特大地震的造成的影响波及陕西省宝鸡市凤县,该地区农村中相当数量的房屋出现墙体开裂,坍塌等严重后果。本课题研究小组对凤县县城周围农村农房进行建房场地,用材,结构等方面进行实地调查,通过运用工程力学、抗震结构设计等方法对该地区农房做出相应的抗震优化方案。此抗震优化方案能有效地减少地震造成的重大损失,同时科研小组进行实地调研时当地政府也给予了很大的支持,这也表明社会正逐步加强对农房抗震的关注程度。本科研小组提供的有效抗震优化方案能改进农房建造过程中存在的抗震不足之处,进而减少广大农民因地震而引起的生命财产损失,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

LEEping into the future of labor economics: the research potential of linking employer and employee data

Linked employer–employee (LEE) data sets are a new and increasingly available tool for research in labor economics. This study indicates a variety of areas in which this tool might be useful and offers a large number of research questions that can be studied with LEE data. Any area where we believe that outcomes are generated by interactions of employers and workers can be profitably analyzed using such data. The answers generated by these studies can enhance our understanding of nearly every labor-market policy.     

Methodological and operational issues in the construction of absence variables

Methodological studies have materially altered thinking about the nature of absence variables. Because of this research, the research community is now aware that absence variables frequently follow irregular data distributions [J. Appl. Psychol. 66 (1981) 574; J. Appl. Psychol. 74 (1989) 300]. Researchers have also been made aware that the reliability of absence metrics depends on the way the measures are configured [Pers. Psychol. 24 (1971) 463; J. Appl. Psychol. 66 (1981) 574]. What has received less attention are research design decisions (i.e., procedural and operational) impacting the psychometric properties of absenteeism variables. The current discussion focuses on the operational and methodological decisions researchers make that impact the measurement properties of absence variables.     

Do liberal cities limit new housing development? Evidence from California

Traditional explanations for why some communities block new housing construction focus on incumbent home owner incentives to block entry. Local resident political ideology may also influence community permitting decisions. This paper uses city level panel data across California metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2008 to document that liberal cities grant fewer new housing permits than observationally similar cities located within the same metropolitan area. Cities experiencing a growth in their liberal voter share have a lower new housing permit growth rate.     

Forecasting small area populations with long short-term memory networks

Local and state governments depend on small area population forecasts to make important decisions concerning the development of local infrastructure and services. Despite their importance, current methods often produce highly inaccurate forecasts. Recent years have witnessed promising developments in time series forecasting using Machine Learning across a wide range of social and economic variables. However, limited work has been undertaken to investigate the potential application of Machine Learning methods in demography, particularly for small area population forecasting. In this paper we describe the development of two Long-Short Term Memory network architectures for small area populations. We employ the Keras Tuner to select layer unit numbers, vary the window width of input data, and apply a double training and validation regime which supports work with short time series and prioritises later sequence values for forecasts. These methods are transferable and can be applied to other data sets. Retrospective small area population forecasts for Australia were created for the periods 2006–16 and 2011–16. Model performance was evaluated against actual data and two benchmark methods (LIN/EXP and CSP-VSG). We also evaluated the impact of constraining small area population forecasts to an independent national forecast. Forecast accuracy was influenced by jump-off year, constraining, area size, and remoteness. The LIN/EXP model was the best performing method for the 2011-based forecasts whilst deep learning methods performed best for the 2006-based forecasts, including significant improvements in the accuracy of 10 year forecasts. However, benchmark methods were consistently more accurate for more remote areas and for those with populations <5000.     

Demand forecasting with user-generated online information

Recently, there has been substantial research on the augmentation of aggregate forecasts with individual consumer data from internet platforms, such as search traffic or social network shares. Although the majority of studies have reported increases in accuracy, many exhibit design weaknesses, including a lack of adequate benchmarks or rigorous evaluation. Furthermore, their usefulness over the product life-cycle has not been investigated, even though this may change, as consumers may search initially for pre-purchase information, but later for after-sales support. This study begins by reviewing the relevant literature, then attempts to support the key findings using two forecasting case studies. Our findings are in stark contrast to those in the previous literature, as we find that established univariate forecasting benchmarks, such as exponential smoothing, consistently perform better those that include online information. Our research underlines the need for a thorough forecast evaluation and argues that the usefulness of online platform data for supporting operational decisions may be limited.     

An examination of national supply-chain flow time

The US and other national governments invest in research and development to spur competitiveness in their domestic manufacturing industries. However, there are limited studies on identifying the research efforts that will have the largest possible return on investment, resulting in suboptimal returns. Manufacturers commonly measure production time in order to identify areas for efficiency improvement, but this is typically not applied at the national level where efficiency issues may cross between enterprises and industries. Such methods and results can be used to prioritize efficiency improvement efforts at an industry supply-chain level. This paper utilizes data on manufacturing inventory along with data on inter-industry interactions to develop a method for tracking industry-level flow time and identifying bottlenecks in US manufacturing. As a proof of concept, this method is applied to the production of three commodities: aircraft, automobiles/trucks, and computers. The robustness of bottleneck identification is tested utilizing Monte Carlo techniques.     

The Emergence of Post-Suburban Landscapes on the North Coast of New South Wales: A Case Study of Contested Space

Since 1980, population trends in Australia have indicated new patterns of urbanization involving substantial growth not only in the dominant conurbations, but also in suburban areas and in an extensive coastal zone (Paris, 1994). Comparisons can be made with the emergence of post-suburban forms and processes in other parts of the world (Kling et. al., 1991). The principal aim of this paper is to present an analysis of some of the major local development conflicts and planning and environmental protection issues that are being faced by developers, planners and local communities as the urban restructuring of Australia takes place. The paper draws on evidence of urbanization on the upper North Coast of New South Wales and provides a detailed examination of two shires in the region — Ballina and Byron — where a study was carried out by the authors in 1994 and 1995. Previous research on the population and development trends in Australia is reviewed to provide a context within which the patterns in New South Wales and its North Coast may be placed, and a discussion is presented of the implications of new development with reference to Ballina Shire and Byron Shire. The usefulness of the postfordist model as an explanatory framework for examining these post-suburban landscapes and contested space issues on the North Coast of NSW is also explored.     

The use of mixed methods research in the field of behavioural sciences

Mixed methods research involves the combined use of quantitative and qualitative methods in the same research study, and it is becoming increasingly important in several scientific areas. The aim of this paper is to review and compare through a mixed methods multiple-case study the application of this methodology in three reputable behavioural science journals: the Journal of Organizational Behavior, Addictive Behaviors and Psicothema. A quantitative analysis was carried out to review all the papers published in these journals during the period 2003–2008 and classify them into two blocks: theoretical and empirical, with the latter being further subdivided into three subtypes (quantitative, qualitative and mixed). A qualitative analysis determined the main characteristics of the mixed methods studies identified, in order to describe in more detail the ways in which the two methods are combined based on their purpose, priority, implementation and research design. From the journals selected, a total of 1,958 articles were analysed, the majority of which corresponded to empirical studies, with only a small number referring to research that used mixed methods. Nonetheless, mixed methods research does appear in all the behavioural science journals studied within the period selected, showing a range of designs, where the sequential equal weight mixed methods research design seems to stand out.     

ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD LEISURE AND SHOPPING BEHAVIOR IN IBARAKI PREFECTURE, JAPAN

Understanding household leisure and shopping behavior is an important component of market research, shop location decisions, travel behavior, and consumer behavior studies. This paper estimates a gravity model of travel behaviors related to leisure and shopping trips in the Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, based on a 1998 survey data set by Poisson regression. The overall results indicate that GDP per capita of cities of origin and of destination, population, train stations, and store area of the destination city affect trip flow positively. Intercity distance, store areas in the city of origin, and higher density in the city of origin negatively affect trip flow. Different variables distinctly affect the shopping behavior for different commodities.     

Small Area Quantile Estimation

Sample surveys are widely used to obtain information about totals, means, medians and other parameters of finite populations. In many applications, similar information is desired for subpopulations such as individuals in specific geographic areas and socio‐demographic groups. When the surveys are conducted at national or similarly high levels, a probability sampling can result in just a few sampling units from many unplanned subpopulations at the design stage. Cost considerations may also lead to low sample sizes from individual small areas. Estimating the parameters of these subpopulations with satisfactory precision and evaluating their accuracy are serious challenges for statisticians. To overcome the difficulties, statisticians resort to pooling information across the small areas via suitable model assumptions, administrative archives and census data. In this paper, we develop an array of small area quantile estimators. The novelty is the introduction of a semiparametric density ratio model for the error distribution in the unit‐level nested error regression model. In contrast, the existing methods are usually most effective when the response values are jointly normal. We also propose a resampling procedure for estimating the mean square errors of these estimators. Simulation results indicate that the new methods have superior performance when the population distributions are skewed and remain competitive otherwise.     

Market attractiveness of developing countries

Companies operating in international markets must be able to evaluate the potential market attractiveness of developing countries with which they may wish to do business. To make decisions about where to go for business, they have access to much information from specialized sources and from statistical data supplied by international institutions. Such vast and diverse information is rarely used in a systematic way in the management decision processes. When it is used, the process is often inadequately formalized. The available information generally deals with economic factors, while in the present international arena, judgments about politics must also be taken into account. This paper investigates the applicability and advantages of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to this decision process, using it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods, 1990–1991 and 1995–1997.     

HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES FOR RESIDENTIAL HOUSING: A SURVEY,EVALUATION AND TAXONOMY

Every house is different. It is important that house price indexes take account of these quality differences. Hedonic methods which express house prices as a function of a vector of characteristics (such as number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and location) are particularly useful for this purpose. I consider here some developments in the hedonic methodology, as it is applied in a housing context, that have occurred in the last three decades. A number of hedonic house price indexes are now available. However, it is often difficult to see how these indexes relate to each other. For this reason I attempt to impose some structure on the literature by developing a taxonomy of hedonic indexes, and then show how existing indexes fit into this taxonomy. Also discussed are some promising areas for future research in the hedonic field. In particular, greater use needs to be made of spatial econometric and nonparametric methods to exploit the increased availability of geospatial data. The main criticisms of the hedonic approach are evaluated and compared with those of the repeat‐sales and stratified median methods. The overall conclusion is that the advantages of the hedonic approach outweigh its disadvantages.