A comparison of endogenous and exogenous timing in a social learning experiment

We experimentally investigate social learning in a two-agent prediction game with both exogenous and endogenous ordering of decisions on a continuous action space. We are first in comparing exogenous and endogenous ordering within one framework, which enables a direct comparison of both structures in terms of informational efficiency, strategic delay and welfare. More efficient observational learning leads to more accurate predictions in the endogenous setting and increases informational efficiency compared to an exogenous setting. However, strategic delay induces waiting costs that offset these benefits and lead to a parity of exogenous and endogenous ordering in terms of welfare results. Our results hold relevance for the efficient design of decision regimes in contexts characterized by continuous action spaces.     

Just keep it simple: a field experiment on fundraising letters

• This paper studies how the use of a colour picture in fundraising letters affect response rates and the amount donated in a fundraising campaign. Envelopes, with a full colour picture were tested against envelopes, without a picture in a controlled field experiment at a national religious charity in the Netherlands. Letters (89 937) were sent out to planned as well as incidental donors in four experimental groups. Results show that packages with more graphics yield lower donations, because both response rates are lower and the amount donated per letter is lower. We interpret this finding from donor aversion against high fundraising costs.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a simple structure: a comparison of different rotation techniques

This paper thematise the problem of seeking and devising a simple structure, when the solution envisages the extraction of more than one component or factor. To this avail, we shall make a comparison between a number of rotation techniques, both orthogonal and oblique, to evaluate just how capable they are of delivering the highest possible semplification of the data yielded by the analysis. To evaluate the results obtained through empirical controls, we have drawn up a simple structure index. For reasons of space, we shall apply principal components analysis to our method, although the results obtained here also hold for factor analysis.     

A note on the comparison between simple random sampling with and without replacement

Summary A new approach is suggested for comparing SRSWR and SRSWOR: SRSWR of integral expected sample size,n, is defined and is compared with SRSWOR of sizen, using suitable estimators.     

Temporary layoffs in the U.S. unemployment insurance system: A comparison of two experience rating methods

This study presents a comparison of temporary layoff behavior caused by the two most common methods of experience rating in the U.S. unemployment insurance system, the reserve ratio and the benefit ratio methods. Differences in layoff paths arise from different adjustment processes. Under the former, layoff rates adjust gradually to their optimal levels whereas under the latter, layoff rates adjust instantaneously. This leads to important differences in average layoff rates. However, neither method is judged to be superior in all circumstances.     

A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times

We model credit rating histories as continuous-time discrete-state Markov processes. Infrequent monitoring of the debtors’ solvency will result in erroneous observations of the rating transition times, and consequently in biased parameter estimates. We develop a score test against such measurement errors in the transition data that is independent of the error distribution. We derive the asymptotic χ²${\chi }^2$-distribution for the test statistic under the null by stochastic limit theory. The test is applied to an international corporate portfolio, while accounting for economic and debtor-specific covariates. The test indicates that measurement errors in the transition times are a real problem in practice.     

A process model of situational judgment test responding

Better understanding respondents' cognitions as they respond to situational judgment test (SJT) items and isolating which elements of knowledge they measure may allow psychologists to develop more predictive SJT items with greater ease. Consequently, we present a theoretical framework outlining the thought processes individuals engage in as they respond to SJT items. We review interactionist theories explaining how these models have shaped the understanding of how personality traits affect behavior and discuss the recent scholarly debate regarding the role of the situation in SJTs. We then describe our proposed tripartite model of the psychological processes test takers may engage in as they respond to SJT items. Finally, we conclude by discussing directions for future research and potential avenues for expanding the proposed model.     

A likelihood ratio test for stationarity of rating transitions

We study the time-stationarity of rating transitions, modelled by a time-continuous discrete-state Markov process and derive a likelihood ratio test. For multiple Markov processes from a multiplicative intensity model, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can be written as martingale transform of the processes, counting transitions between the rating states, so that the profile partial likelihood ratio is asymptotically χ²${\chi }^2$-distributed. An application to an internal rating data set reveals highly significant instationarity.     

A bayesian analysis of a random coefficient model in a simple keynesian system

The marginal propensity to consume in a simple Keynesian model is treated as a random coefficient. This gives rise to the problem of quotient of random variables, i.e., the Fieller-Creasy problem. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are compared in sampling experiments. The Bayesian estimators have smaller mean squared errors than the maximum likelihood estimators. Marginal posterior probability density functions for a given sample are also presented.     

A simple and effective scanning rule for a multi-channel system

We consider a multi-channel system in which one apparatus makes a sequence of observations, one at a time. By means of scanning, i.e. selecting a channel to be analyzed at any instant and deciding to stop at some stage, it is required to determine the channel in which there is the signal with prescribed constraints on error probabilities. A simple scanning rule, based on a cyclic application of a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is proposed for this problem. It is proved that in the case of Brownian motion, the expected scanning time of this rule is equal to the one of the optimal scanning rule (which is known only for this case). The simple structure of this rule permits to obtain corrected Brownian approximations for its characteristics in the case of exponential family of distributions. The same procedure is used in multi-channel change point problem.     

A simple matching domain with indifferences and a master list

Review of Economic Design - We present a two-sided one-to-one market setting where one side of the market is objectively ranked. Constraints prevent agents on the other side from matching with...     

Learning in a multilateral bargaining experiment

This paper analyzes data from an investigation of a majoritarian bargaining experiment. A learning model is proposed to account for the evolution of play in this experiment. It is also suggested that an adjustment must be made to account for the panel structure of the data. Such adjustments have been used in other fields and are known to be important as unadjusted standard errors may be severely biased downward. These results indicate that this adjustment also has an important effect in this application. Furthermore, an efficient estimator that takes into account heterogeneity across players is proposed. A unique learning model to account for the paths of play under two different amendment rules cannot be rejected with the standard estimator with adjusted standard errors, however it can be rejected using the efficient estimator. The data and the estimated learning model suggest that after proposing “fair” divisions, subjects adapt and their proposals change rapidly in the treatment where uneven proposals are almost always accepted. Their beliefs in the estimated learning model are influenced by more than just the most recent outcomes.     

A simple measure of skewness

Groeneveld (1986) in discussing the skewness for the Weibull family has pointed out the shortcomings of the classical measures of asymmetry—the standardized third moment and the Pearson measure of skewness. He has shown that a modified form of the Pearson measure b₃= (μ-m)/E|X-m| portrays the skewness of Weibull family quite well. We give another competitive measure of skewness T that is easy to interpret and is based on conditional expectations. The proposed measure satisfies the desirable properties of a skewness measure.     

Unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model with worker moral hazard

This paper studies the role of unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model that features an efficiency-wage view of the labor market based on unobservable effort. The risk-sharing mechanism central to the model permits, but does not force, agents to be fully insured. Structural parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure on US data. Formal hypothesis tests reveal that the data favor a model in which agents only partially insure each other against employment risk. The results also show that limited risk sharing helps the model capture many salient properties of the business cycle that a restricted version with full insurance fails to explain.     

德能和谐 科学发展

长治供电分公司作为国家大型二类企业,在企业文化建设中提出了构建"德能和谐"企业的工作思路,推动了企业与职工的共同发展.