Choice Certainty and Consistency in Repeated Choice Experiments

The main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments. We test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks. In a split-sample test, we show that follow-up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant. The self-reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs, but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks. Additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent.     

基于激励相容的企业绩效管理模式设计

激励性绩效模式是企业有效实施绩效管理和全面提升绩效水平的关键.针对我国企业绩效管理体系普遍缺乏激励性的问题,基于激励相容理论,设计了一种绩效管理模式.首先,构建了企业员工的绩效参与约束条件与激励相容条件.其次,根据企业与员工之间不同的信息披露情况,分别建立了信息对称条件下的激励相容绩效模型和信息不对称条件下的激励相容绩效模型.在此基础上,明确了企业绩效管理模式的实现路径.最后,通过企业实例验证了信息不对称条件下的企业激励相容绩效管理模式新颖、有效且合理,能够同时实现员工激励最大化和企业收益最大化.     

Using Choice Experiments to Value the Environment

This paper we outline the “choice experiment” approach to environmental valuation. This approach has its roots in Lancaster's characteristics theory of value, in random utility theory and in experimental design. We show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets, such as forests and rivers, can be estimated from pair-wise choices, as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole. These choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function, and to minimise required sample size. Choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods, such as contingent valuation and travel cost-type models, although many design issues remain unresolved. Applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited. We illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent UK study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes. This study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay.     

论汇率制度选择的影响因素--兼论我国汇率制度的选择

本文主要分析了影响一国汇率制度的四个因素。在市场经济条件下,各个经济变量的相互协调要求汇率制度的选择采取浮动汇率制度。最后,从这四个因素出发,分析指出我国汇率制度改革的最终取向应该是浮动汇率制度。     

金融风险与财政分担:基于激励相容的视角

本文以现行金融体系为背景,从激励相容的视角构建了政府与金融机构的委托代理模型.结果显示:(1)财政的最优分担比例由政府和金融机构的风险规避系数以及税率决定的;(2)最优的风险程度取决于政府和金融机构的风险规避系数、单位方差、风险对收益的影响度以及金融机构的资本金.为控制金融风险,应采取建立存款保险制度、按最优分担比例分担金融危机、提升政府和金融机构的风险规避系数以及增加金融机构的资本金等措施.     

创新激励:公共财税政策的工具选择

自主创新是一国兴旺发达的不竭动力,是国与国之间科技竞争的焦点。由于技术创新存在市场失灵,所以政府有必要利用政策工具实施干预,以促进本国自主创新事业的发展。从我国实施自主创新政策选择的必要性分析入手,通过对技术创新的理论剖析,得出政府必须运用财税政策实施干预,以及如何进行自主创新导向的财税政策选择。     

Choke Price Bias in Choice Experiments

This paper reports on the results from a split sample choice experiment, where the effect of changing the maximum level of the cost attribute is investigated. The hypothesis was that changing the maximum price level would either give rise to an income effect or have no effect on consumers’ preferences. This was tested in the framework of a valuation study of different quality characteristics of minced pork. The data was analysed using a mixed logit error component model, which accounts for correlation in the unobserved part of the utility. Results suggest that the size of the maximum price level does matter, and that changing the maximum price level has a statistically significant effect on both the general preferences structure and the WTP estimates. Hence, researchers should be very careful when defining not only the range of the price attribute but also the maximum level of the price attribute.     

Response Strategies and Learning in Discrete Choice Experiments

This study explores ordering effects and response strategies in repeated binary discrete choice experiments. Mechanism design theory and empirical evidence suggest that repeated choice tasks per respondent induce strategic behaviour. We find evidence that strategic opportunities provided by the order in which choice sets are presented to respondents affect choice decisions (strategic response). The results suggest, however, that respondents may solely respond to high cost rather than low cost inconsistencies. That is, respondents are more cost sensitive, and thus have a lower willingness to pay (WTP), if the same or a similar level of provision was offered in a previous choice set at a lower cost than if it was not. Yet, the cost sensitivity, and thus WTP, remains unaffected if the same or a similar level of provision was offered in a previous choice set at a higher cost. Our findings further indicate that cost sensitivity increases (and thus WTP decreases), when respondents progress through the choice task, with this increase (decrease) lessening as more choice questions are answered. Possible explanations are value learning and strategic learning.     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

基于网络外部性的产品差异化与兼容性选择

本文研究了网络外部性与转移成本存在下的新进入企业的产品差异化与兼容性选择问题,并考虑了在位企业的兼容性动机。研究结果表明:对于新进入企业而言,只存在两种策略组合,即(最大差异化,不兼容)和(最大差异化,兼容);在位企业是偏好兼容的。     

激励相容约束下农民工工伤保险制度的设计与实验

随着我国城镇化建设的发展,国家虽为农民工制定了一系列工伤保险条例,但这些法规却始终难以有效执行,本文认为其根本原因是政府难以全面监督企业.现行的工伤保险制度存在"道德风险"问题.政府应采用激励机制引导企业自愿参与工伤保险.为此,本文以委托一代理模型为基础,提出了我国农民工工伤保险改进路径,并通过实验经济学的方法模拟分析了该制度设计的合理性.     

Incorporating Discontinuous Preferences into the Analysis of Discrete Choice Experiments

Data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates. Using a multinomial error component logit model, we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives. Results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification, and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences.     

财富转移、决策成本与业主投票规则选择

本文考察了业主间的财富转移、投票成本与投票规则之间的关系.结果表明,提高投票决定规则水平有效抑制了业主间的财富转移,但仅在一定的区间内提高了投票决策成本.而按面积计票和按业主数计票的决议形成成本,在理论上虽有较大差距,而在实际操作中几乎相同.当采用一致同意规则时,业主间的财富转移成本和决策成本有可能同时为零.文中业主间讨价还价成本与业主集体规模之间的关系模型,协调了Buchanan,J.M. 等和Kiesling,H. J.之间的争议.     

Incentive Regulation and The Cost Structure of The Local Telephone Exchange Network

This paper combines an engineering process model of the cost of local exchange telecommunications firms with an analytical model of optimal incentive regulation (with ex post cost observability), to study empirically the properties of the optimal regulatory mechanism. Relying on detailed properties of the cost function, we examine three issues: (i) the extent of natural monopoly when informational rents associated with regulation are taken into account; (ii) the extent of incentive correction, which expresses the divergence of pricing under the optimal mechanism from optimal pricing under complete information; (iii) the implementation of optimal regulation through a menu of linear contracts. Our findings are that, for fixed territory, strong economies of scale allow local exchange telecommunications to retain monopoly characteristics even when the (informational) costs of regulation are properly accounted for, the incentive correction term is small in magnitude, and that optimal regulation can be well approximated through relatively simple linear contracts.     

Attending to the Reasons for Attribute Non-attendance in Choice Experiments

This paper focuses on behavioural reasons underlying stated attribute non-attendance in choice experiments. In order to identify and incorporate procedures for dealing with heterogeneous attribute processing strategies, we ask respondents follow-up questions regarding their reasons for ignoring attributes. Based on these statements, we conclude that the standard way of assigning a zero impact of ignored attributes on the likelihood is inappropriate. We find that some respondents act in accordance with the passive bounded rationality assumption since they ignore an attribute simply because it does not affect their utility. Excluding these genuine zero preferences, as the standard approach essentially does, might bias results. Other respondents claim to have ignored attributes to simplify choices. However, we find that these respondents have actually not completely ignored attributes. We argue along the rationally adaptive behavioural model that valid preference information may indeed be elicited in these cases, and we illustrate how recoding of non-attendance statements conditional on stated reasons may be a more appropriate solution than the current standard way of taking stated non-attendance into account.     

东亚国家或地区汇率制度的选择与演变

通过分析东亚国家在东亚金融危机前、中、后不同阶段汇率制度选择的变化,发现东亚国家或地区汇率制度以“钉住美元”为主线,基本符合东亚经济特征。汇率波动存在传染效应,汇率制度缺乏合作且存在一定程度的浮动恐慌。东亚汇率制度演变的基本结论是：东亚各国或地区能否抵抗货币攻击,与采取的汇率制度密切相关。东亚各国或地区的汇率制度需要根据内外经济形势变化进行相应调整,单一钉住美元的汇率制度变得困难且不合时宜。     

Identifying Heuristic Choice Rules in the Swedish Premium Pension Scheme

We analyze choices of a randomly selected sample of 10,999 citizens in the Swedish premium pension scheme. The aim is to identify the presence of various heuristic choice rules commonly observed in human decision making. Evidence suggests the prevalence of a default bias, the use of a diversification heuristic, extremeness aversion, a home bias, and the use of a 1/n heuristic. In some cases, cognitive simplification or wishful thinking may underlie the use of these heuristics. In other cases, their use seems to be consistent with recommendations provided by the responsible authority.     

新兴市场经济体的汇率制度选择

文章以1974年至2000年的年度数据为样本,运用多元Logit选择模型研究了31个新兴市场经济体自布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来的汇率制度选择。文章从提高经济运行效率与稳定经济波动两方面选择影响新兴市场经济体汇率制度选择的因素,文章发现从提高经济运行效率的角度来选择汇率制度有指导意义,而很多变量对中间汇率制度的影响不同于对浮动或固定汇率制度的影响。