The Great Capitol Hill Baby Sitting Co‐op: Anecdote or Evidence for the Optimum Quantity of Money?

This paper studies a centralized market with idiosyncratic uncertainty and money as a medium of exchange from a theoretical as well as an experimental perspective. In our model, prices are fixed and markets are cleared by rationing. We prove the existence of stationary monetary equilibria and of an optimum quantity of money. The rational solution of our model, which is based on the assumption of individual rationality and rational expectations, is compared with actual behavior in a laboratory experiment. The theoretical results are strongly supported by this experiment.     

A model of the Federal Reserve Act under the international gold standard system

Freeman (Am. Econom. Rev. 86 (1996a) 1126) shows that an elastic money supply enhances the efficiency of monetary equilibrium by clearing default-free debts at par value in the domestic credit market. This research adds a foreign exchange market to Freeman's model and extends his analysis into a two-country model, in which the arrival rates of agents are not equal between the two countries. In this model, an elastic money supply in the foreign exchange market to clear the exchange of fiat monies at gold standard parity, accompanied by an elastic money supply in the domestic credit market, could improve the efficiency of monetary equilibrium.     

外汇市场、股票市场及预期退货膨胀对货币需求的影响

本文利用2005年7月到2012年12月的月度数据,使用菲利普斯-奥肯曲线计算预期通货膨胀率,将汇率、股票市场以及预期通货膨胀率纳入货币需求函数模型,通过协整检验、VEC模型以及VAR模型,研究了汇率、股市以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响,结果发现汇率、股市收益率以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响具有统计显著性,但是影响程度很小。     

The financial crisis in Norway: effects on financial markets and measures taken

This article guides through the measures implemented in Norway in order to dampen negative effects stemming from the financial crisis. We also discuss some features of the Norwegian money market and the liquidity system in Norway. From the point of view of central banks, the widening gap between money market rates and the key policy rate has been one disturbing element of the financial crises. We develop a simple model, which illustrates how developments in forward exchange premiums can provide insight as to why money market premiums differ across currencies. The model shows that the excess supply of term liquidity in dollar relative to the excess supply of term liquidity in other currencies has an impact on the domestic money market premium relative to that on USD.     

Payments systems and monetary policy

A dynamic spatial model is constructed where there is a role for money and for centralized payments arrangements, and where there are aggregate fluctuations driven by fluctuations in aggregate productivity. With decentralized monetary exchange and no centralized payments arrangements, there is price level indeterminacy, and the equilibrium allocation is inefficient. A private clearinghouse arrangement improves efficiency but produces a real indeterminacy. The pricing of daylight overdrafts is irrelevant for the equilibrium allocation. Efficiency is achieved with a zero nominal interest rate on overnight central bank lending, or through private overnight interbank lending.     

我国外汇市场压力研究——基于马尔可夫区制转换方法

本文基于1996~2010年月度数据,采用马尔可夫三区制转换模型对人民币外汇市场压力进行了区制识别,并考察了货币扩张、通货膨胀、外汇储备、经济增长及人民币名义有效汇率变动5个变量在不同区制及区制转换过程中的动态变化情况。实证结果表明,MSIH(3)-VAR(1)模型能较好识别人民币外汇市场压力区制,人民币外汇市场经历了适度升值压力区制、贬值压力区制及较强升值压力区制三个阶段;其中,外汇储备是外汇市场压力区制转变的关键因素,较强升值压力区制向其他两种区制转换过程中会伴随着汇率的升值和外汇储备的减少。     

Safe Assets as Commodity Money

This paper presents a model in which safe assets are systemic because they are the medium of exchange in risky assets. It connects the literature from banking and finance on safe assets to the monetary literature on alternative monetary systems involving commodity money, interest bearing money, and private money creation. Because safe assets have intrinsic value, changes in their supply lead to changes in market efficiency. Additionally, because safe assets are costly to produce, there is overproduction of safe assets relative to the social optimum. When the model is calibrated to plausible liquidity premiums the resulting inefficiencies are not large.     

人民币升值、外币资产增长与货币供给

本文以汇率的资产组合决定论为基础,探讨了我国央行干预外汇市场对本币供给的影响机制.近年来,人民币产生升值预期,我国外币资产单边增长,央行通过干预外汇市场投放本币的方式,既维护了人民币汇率稳定,又解决了货币供给.伴随着外币资产的过快增长,这种货币供给机制势必引发外汇占款激增,理论上央行能够对冲过剩的流动性,但在实际操作中,央行的对冲流动性工具不能无限使用.只要人民币存在升值预期,我国货币供给受纠冲击的风险就不断累积.为了化解货币危机,必须消除人民币升值预期,对我国经济发展战略、人民币汇率形成机制进行涮整.     

Decentralized exchanges: The “wild west” of cryptocurrency trading

Cryptocurrencies are traded on two types of exchanges – centralized and decentralized. Although trading in the largest cryptocurrencies primarily occurs on centralized exchanges, most newly issued tokens can only be exchanged using decentralized platforms. Volumes in these decentralized exchanges (including automated market makers) has recently increased exponentially. We examine the role of this new and unmonitored market, utilizing an extensive sample of tokens exclusively traded on decentralized platforms. We show significant differences in the listing and trading characteristics of these tokens relative to their centralized equivalents. A small selection of these tokens obtain listing on a centralized exchange during the sample period, which is accompanied by a significant increase in trading activity, consistent with market segmentation. A centralized listing results in a migration of volume away from decentralized platforms, revealing a strong preference by tokenholders for deeper and more liquid markets over the increased security and anonymity offered by decentralized exchanges.     

Money,Bargaining, and Risk Sharing

We investigate the dual role of money as a self‐insurance device and a means of payment when perfect risk sharing is not possible, and when the two roles of money are disentangled. We use a variant of Lagos–Wright (2005) where agents face a risk in the centralized market (CM): in the decentralized market (DM) money’s main role is as a means of payment, while in the CM it is as a self‐insurance device. We show that state‐contingent inflation rates can improve agents’ ability to self‐insure in the CM, thereby improving the terms of trade in the DM. We then characterize the optimal monetary policy.     

国际资本流动下的中国金融安全实证分析

分析了国际资本流动对金融安全的冲击路径以及非均衡机制测试我国外汇市场压力指数的大小,建立了资本净流入和外汇市场压力指数之间的VAR（6）模型,研究结论表明,国际资本的净流入会增大外汇市场压力,但货币当局的冲销干预会削弱这种影响,降低发生货币危机的可能性;货币当局的政策选择应该是盯住外汇市场,而不是单纯的货币市场。     

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration

Engel and West (2005) show that the observed near random‐walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a partial equilibrium asset approach when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first‐order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor creates a theoretical trade‐off within a two‐country general equilibrium model. The unit discount factor generates near random‐walk nominal exchange rates, but it counterfactually implies perfect consumption risk sharing and flat money demand. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises, based on post‐Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States, reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random‐walk proposition within the canonical model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much smaller than one. A relative money demand shock is identified as the main driver of nominal exchange rates.     

Daytime Is Money

Based on trade data from the Swiss franc overnight interbank repo market, we gain valuable insights into the daytime value of money. In analogy to Baglioni and Monticini (2008) , we provide evidence that an implicit intraday money market exists. We further show that the introduction of foreign exchange settlement system, Continuous Linked Settlement, increased the implicit value of intraday liquidity during settlement cycle hours, thus providing further evidence of the cost of immediacy. Finally, we provide evidence that during the financial market turmoil the implicit intraday interest in a secured money market was less affected than that in an unsecured money market.     

Dollarization and currency exchange

We use a dual currency money search model to study dollarization. Agents hold portfolios consisting of two currencies, one of which is risky. We use numerical methods to solve for the steady-state distributions of currency portfolios, transaction patterns, and value functions. As risk increases, agents increasingly use the safe currency as a medium of exchange—dollarization occurs. Furthermore, the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky currency. This type of currency exchange, and the corresponding nominal exchange rate, are often observed in black market or unofficial currency exchange markets in developing countries. Due to decentralized trading, a distribution of exchange rates arises, whose mean and variance change in predictable ways when currency risk increases.     

The interrelatedness of global equity markets, money markets, and foreign exchange markets

This article investigates different aspects of global financial markets, specifically relationships among equity markets, money markets, and foreign exchange markets across countries. To represent the three major financial markets of the world, Japan is the proxy for Asia, Germany is the proxy for Europe, and the United States is the proxy for North America. Strong evidence exists that international money markets and international equity markets are becoming increasingly integrated over time. This article incorporates foreign exchange values as partial determinants of equity returns and money market returns and investigates the interactions among these three asset markets from a global perspective.     

Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises

This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible.     

Contract length, monetary policy and exchange rate variability

This paper investigates the dependence of exchange rate variability on average contract length in the goods market when changes in the money supply are the driving force for movements in the exchange rate. It is shown that, in general, an increase in average contract length will increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We then discuss how changes in the money supply process affect average contract length. Besides providing an explanation for changes in the conditional variance of the exchange rate our results are interesting in the light of the changes in Monetary Control Procedures implemented by the Federal Reserve Board in October 1979 and the consequent increase in exchange rate volatility.     

Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate

Although stable money demand functions are crucial for the monetary model of the exchange rate, empirical research on exchange rates and money demand is more or less disconnected. This paper tries to fill the gap for the euro/dollar exchange rate. We investigate whether monetary disequilibria provided by the empirical literature on US and European money demand functions contain useful information about exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model improves when insights from the money demand literature are explicitly taken into account.     

Money and capital

The effects of money (anticipated inflation) on capital formation is a classic issue in macroeconomics. Previous papers adopt reduced-form approaches, putting money in the utility function, or imposing cash in advance, but using otherwise frictionless models. We follow instead a literature that tries to be explicit about the frictions making money essential. This introduces new elements, including a two-sector structure with centralized and decentralized markets, stochastic trading opportunities, and bargaining. These elements matter quantitatively and numerical results differ from findings in the reduced-form literature. The analysis also reduces a gap between microfounded monetary economics and mainstream macro.     

经济增长、结构失衡与流动性过剩——论我国当前流动性过剩的成因与对策

由于社会保障制度的不完善和分配结构的不合理,经济增长带来居民收入增长的同时,消费需求难以有效放大,储蓄和净出口的高增长成为必然。储蓄的高增长导致银行的存贷差上升,其分流导致股市和房市的流动性过剩;净出口的持续高增长和国际资本的大量涌入导致国际收支持续的高顺差。由于汇率缺乏弹性,基础货币的被动增加和货币乘数的预期外上升一并导致货币供给过剩。强化储备货币发行国的发行约束;调整外贸发展战略,优化产业结构;扩大消费需求;扩大汇率浮动区间;提高货币政策的科学性等措施可以有效控制和利用流动性过剩。