美国金融危机对中国贸易影响的价格溢出效应分析

金融危机的贸易溢出效应主要是通过价格效应和收入效应实现的。中美两国存在密切的互补型贸易关系,本文就美国金融危机通过价格效应对我国贸易状况的影响进行了实证研究,并与收入效应的影响进行对比分析。研究发现,美国金融危机对我国贸易溢出的价格效应显著,而收入效应较小;美国金融危机对中国贸易的溢出效应主要是显著影响了出口,而对进口的影响较为短暂。     

欧盟东扩对我国制造业影响的实证分析

欧盟东扩后产生了贸易创造和贸易转移效应,其中贸易转移效应将影响我国对欧盟出口。东扩的国家人均GDP显著低于西欧,但也显著高于我国,所以与中国相比对欧盟出口可能拥有不同比较优势,对我国不同技术含量的制造业商品出口欧盟会产生不同程度的影响,本文首先分析了中东欧主要国家和我国制造业的双边贸易以及中国和中东欧国家出口欧盟的制造业商品结构,然后基于制造业相对显示性指数实证分析得出：欧盟东扩后,制造业商品出口结构恶化,特别是中低技能技术的制造业产品在东盟东扩后受到的贸易转移效应影响尤为明显,而对我国劳动和资源密集型产品影响不大,还有最近几年的贸易摩擦使得高技能技术产品的出口欧盟受阻,进一步恶化了我国对欧盟制造业商品出口结构。     

人民币名义汇率变动对中美贸易收支影响的研究——基于毕肯戴克—罗宾逊—梅茨勒条件视角的实证分析

从毕肯戴克—罗宾逊—梅茨勒条件的视角,同时考虑需求与供给两方面因素对中美贸易差额的影响,采用SPSS线性回归后退法分析中美贸易差额与人民币名义汇率、两国价格水平、国民收入、劳动力成本及储蓄率差额的相关关系,结果表明,中美双边货物贸易中美国的巨额逆差自有其深刻的经济政治原因,人民币升值无助于消除美国的逆差。     

Using Financial Accounting Data to Examine the Effect of Foreign Operations Located in Tax Havens and Other Countries on U.S. Multinational Firms' Tax Rates

This paper investigates the effect tax havens and other foreign jurisdictions have on the income tax rates of multinational firms based in the United States. We develop a new regression methodology using financial accounting data to estimate the average worldwide, federal, and foreign tax rates on worldwide, federal, and foreign pretax book income for a large sample of U.S. firms with and without tax haven operations. We find that on average U.S. firms that disclosed material operations in at least one tax haven country have a worldwide tax burden on worldwide income that is approximately 1.5 percentage points lower than firms without operations in at least one tax haven country. Our results also show that U.S. firms face a 4.4% current federal tax rate on foreign income whether or not they have tax haven operations. Finally, we find that U.S. firms with operations in some tax haven countries have higher federal tax rates on foreign income than other firms. This result suggests that in some cases, tax haven operations may increase U.S. tax collections at the expense of foreign country tax collections.     

Asset Prices,News Shocks,and the Trade Balance

We analyze the relationship between asset prices and the trade balance estimating a Bayesian VAR for a broad set of 38 industrialized and emerging market countries. To derive model‐based identifying restrictions, we model asset price shocks as news shocks about future productivity in a two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Such shocks are found to exert sizable effects on the trade balance. Moreover, the effects are highly heterogeneous across countries. For instance, following a news shock that implies on impact a 10% increase in domestic equity prices relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. trade balance will worsen by up to 1.0 percentage points, but much less so for most other economies. We find that this heterogeneity appears to be linked to the financial market depth and equity home bias of countries. Moreover, the channels via wealth effects and via the real exchange rate are important for understanding the heterogeneity in the transmission.     

Income shifting and U.S. international trade in goods statistics

Intrafirm trade represents greater than one-third of total U.S. international trade in goods. Since these are not arm’s-length transactions, trade policymakers have voiced concerns that income shifting may distort international trade in goods statistics through the manipulation of transfer prices. Using country-level data on intrafirm exports and imports, we estimate a path analysis that simultaneously tests how and to what extent tax-motivated transfer pricing and real investment decisions affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics. Contrary to speculation, we do not find an economically significant relation between transfer pricing and intrafirm trade in goods statistics. In contrast, we find that tax-motivated location decisions create a 21 (20) percent or $819.7 ($927.1) million difference in mean intrafirm exports (imports) between the U.S. and a low- and high-tax country. This study provides trade policymakers with relevant information about the extent to which real investment decisions and accounting manipulations affect intrafirm trade in goods statistics and contributes to the international trade and income shifting literatures.     

EXPLAINING PREMIUMS AND DISCOUNTS ON CLOSED-END EQUALITY COUNTRY FUNDS

Over the past decade or so, the surge of interest among U.S. investors in international investing has led to the creation of numerous foreign equity country funds. Like U.S. closed-end mutual funds, the prices of such closed-end country funds fluctuate widely in relation to their underlying net asset values (NAVs).
In this paper, the authors summarize the major findings of their recent study of the performance of 28 country funds relative to their NAVs over the period 1978–1995. While 20 of the 28 funds traded at average discounts to their net asset values, the discounts for the country funds were smaller than those of the average U.S. fund, and over a quarter of the funds sold at premiums.
In an attempt to explain such premiums or discounts, the authors examined primarily three factors: (1) the sensitivity of country-fund returns (relative to that of local market indices) to U.S. returns; (2) the possible effects of local government investment restrictions; and (3) the impact of exchange rate changes. Although most of the eight funds that traded at average premiums represented countries with significant restrictions on capital flows and foreign ownership, there were also a number of funds with similar restrictions trading at significant discounts. In exploring the reasons for such discounts, the authors noted that the returns to the country funds were "surprisingly sensitive" to U.S. market conditions, thus reducing the extent of their diversification benefits for U.S. investors. The article also raises the possibility that if such country funds are not "priced at the margin" by globally diversified investors, U.S investors' "country-risk sentiments" could cause such funds to trade at discounts.     

Equity valuation in a changing institutional climate: evidence from multinational utilities

The transformation of U.S. utilities from purely domestic to multinational enterprises commenced in 1992 with the passage of The Energy Policy Act (EPAct). In response to the liberalized regulatory climate, 29 U.S. utilities have diversified their holdings through the acquisition of foreign utilities, many of which are located in emerging market countries. This study analyzes the impact of international diversification on the profitability and valuation of U.S.-based multinational utilities during the years 1996-2000. In order to control for the effects of aggregate economic and regulatory changes, purely domestic utilities are also included in the sample. The empirical tests are conducted utilizing an earnings-and-book value model. Compared to purely domestic utilities, multinational utilities report lower absolute and relative rates of profitability, exhibit higher levels of systematic risk and trade at higher market-to-book ratios. Taken together, these results suggest investors may be systematically overpricing the equities of U.S.-based multinational utilities. A further finding of this paper is that accounting information explains a lower percentage of the variation in equity prices for multinational utilities relative to their domestic counterparts.     

The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications

Using novel estimates of sectoral total factor productivities for 72 countries across 5 decades we provide evidence of relative productivity convergence: productivity grew systematically faster in initially relatively less productive sectors. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. Had productivity in each country׳s manufacturing sector relative to the US remained the same as in the 1960s, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. Relative sectoral productivity convergence – holding average growth fixed – had a modest negative welfare impact.     

Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the U.S. and Malaysia

Previous research that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of Malaysia concentrated only on the aggregate exports of Malaysia to the rest of the world. In this paper we first concentrate on the trade flows between Malaysia and the U.S. After showing that exchange rate volatility has neither short-run nor long-run effect on the trade flows between the two countries, we disaggregate the trade data by industry and consider the experience of 101 U.S. exporting industries to Malaysia and 17 U.S. importing industries from Malaysia. While exchange rate volatility seems to have significant short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries, short-run effects translate into the long run only in a limited number of small industries.     

收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究

已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。     

Foreign cultures, Sarbanes–Oxley Act and cross-delisting

Using a sample of foreign firms listed in U.S. and delisting shares over the period 2000 and 2010, this paper studies the impact of Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) on the cross-delisting behavior of foreign firms based on the firm characteristics, legal tradition, overall culture and degree of individualism of the country of domicile. Pre-SOX, the propensity to delist is lower for firms from countries with cultural similarities to the U.S. and higher for firms from individualistic societies. Post-SOX these trends are reversed. Consistent with the existing research we find that the delisting decision of foreign firms cross-listed in the U.S. is based on the potential gains from listing based on the growth opportunities, length of presence in the U.S. and legal regulations of the country of domicile. Out findings provide evidence of the cultural factors that impact the competitiveness of U.S. capital markets.     

加征关税如何影响美国贸易逆差及全球福利——基于美元本位下两国动态一般均衡框架的分析

本文构建了一个包含美元本位特征的两国模型,在此基础上分析了美国加征关税及引发的贸易摩擦对美国贸易逆差和全球福利的影响,并详细探讨了相关传导机制。在基准模型设定下,美国单方面加征20%关税会使得美国贸易逆差占GDP比重小幅缩小约0.40个百分点,美国长期稳态GDP下降约2.50%,其他国家GDP下降约1.10%,美国居民福利上升约0.60%,其他国家居民福利下降约1.20%。美国单方面加征关税在抑制全球贸易和生产的同时,会通过更加不公平的国际贸易恶化全球福利分配。当其他国家采取报复性措施时,其他国家自身福利并不会进一步恶化,但美国福利会大幅下滑,同时美国贸易逆差相对规模变化不大。贸易摩擦博弈的“囚徒困境”特征在一定程度上能够解释贸易战的发生。削弱美元本位地位能促进国际贸易公平性的提升,进而能减弱贸易摩擦带来的负面影响、提升全球福利水平,并能有效缩窄美国贸易逆差。     

加征关税如何影响美国贸易逆差及全球福利——基于美元本位下两国动态一般均衡框架的分析

本文构建了一个包含美元本位特征的两国模型,在此基础上分析了美国加征关税及引发的贸易摩擦对美国贸易逆差和全球福利的影响,并详细探讨了相关传导机制。在基准模型设定下,美国单方面加征20%关税会使得美国贸易逆差占GDP比重小幅缩小约0.40个百分点,美国长期稳态GDP下降约2.50%,其他国家GDP下降约1.10%,美国居民福利上升约0.60%,其他国家居民福利下降约1.20%。美国单方面加征关税在抑制全球贸易和生产的同时,会通过更加不公平的国际贸易恶化全球福利分配。当其他国家采取报复性措施时,其他国家自身福利并不会进一步恶化,但美国福利会大幅下滑,同时美国贸易逆差相对规模变化不大。贸易摩擦博弈的“囚徒困境”特征在一定程度上能够解释贸易战的发生。削弱美元本位地位能促进国际贸易公平性的提升,进而能减弱贸易摩擦带来的负面影响、提升全球福利水平,并能有效缩窄美国贸易逆差。     

Inequality,Mobility and Income Distribution Comparisons

This paper examines the relationship between the cross-sectional and lifetime income distributions using a simple model of relative income mobility. It asks whether cross-sectional comparisons between countries can provide a good indication of lifetime inequality differences if income mobility is similar, and whether lifetime inequality increases by less than cross-sectional inequality if the latter increases as a result of higher mobility. Analytical and simulation methods are used to show that the answer to both questions is negative. Comparisons must allow for different types of mobility, the nature of the age-income profile and the age distribution in each country. JEL classification: D31.     

人民币汇率与东亚经济体汇率的相关性分析

随着中国经济近年来的快速增长,人民币在周边国家和地区得到了普遍认可。文章通过对8个东亚经济体汇率受其他货币汇率影响情况的实证研究,发现尽管美元影响向力仍为主导,但人民币对这些货币汇率的影响力正在逐步提升。近年来,中国与东亚经济体贸易联系的日益加强和东亚经济体汇率政策的调整,可能是人民币在东亚地区影响力增强的两个主要原因。     

Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries

We study a sample of nine developed and nine developing countries to evaluate the questions of how foreign income uncertainty and real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty impact international trade and how those impacts vary according to stage of development. RER uncertainty has a negative and significant impact on export growth for six of the nine less developed countries in our sample, while it has an insignificant effect for a majority of the developed countries. In both groups, foreign income uncertainty has a more pervasively significant (and frequently larger) influence on trade than does RER uncertainty.     

Macroeconomic interdependence and the international role of the dollar

The U.S. dollar holds a dominant place in the invoicing of international trade. In addition to a direct role for most U.S. exports and imports, it plays a global role for trade flows outside the United States. Using a simple center-periphery model, we show that this global role magnifies the exposure of periphery countries to the U.S.'s monetary policy even when trade flows with the U.S. are limited. This generates gains from coordinated monetary policy, as U.S. policy leads to inefficient movements in intra-periphery relative prices. Despite this inefficiency, flexible exchange rates remain valuable.     

Macroeconomic impact of the Sino–U.S. trade frictions: Based on a two-country,two-sector DSGE model

To examine the impact of the recent Sino–U.S. trade frictions on the macroeconomics of China and the United States, we constructed a two-country, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This model was used to explore the tariff transmission mechanism in such trade frictions and provide a basic analytical framework for future research on bilateral trade frictions. Based on our benchmark analysis, the tariff shocks affect non-tradable sectors through the tradable sectors, which, in turn, have impacted consumption, investments, prices, and production. Specifically, the tariffs on intermediate and final goods affect the economy from the supply and demand sides, respectively, and as the trade dependence decreases, the economic volatility caused by the tariff shocks also decreases. Moreover, our simulation showed that the impact of the trade frictions on the macroeconomics of the two countries has been asymmetrical, which is consistent with the objective economic realities.     

反倾销如何影响了跨国并购

当前,贸易壁垒对中国构建更高层次的开放型经济体制造成了多重复杂影响。基于中国微观企业跨国并购以及反倾销微观案件数据,本文全面探究了反倾销贸易壁垒对跨国并购的影响效应与作用机制。通过多种稳健性估计发现,国家、行业不同层面反倾销壁垒,对企业跨国并购规模、并购数量具有显著的抑制效应。进一步分析发现,反倾销贸易壁垒有助于企业规避特定国家政策冲击,进而对企业跨国并购成功率具有一定带动效应;反倾销贸易壁垒加大了“上下游企业”并购协同成本,显著抑制了跨行业并购;反倾销对企业跨国并购的多重影响,与一国行业贸易竞争力降低存在显著关联。因此,要全面理性分析反倾销带来的跨国并购障碍与风险,制定符合企业自身的并购策略,积极利用同行业协同并购优势,规避贸易壁垒带来的负向冲击。