Firm financial behaviour dynamics and interactions: A structural vector autoregression approach

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions of firms' financial behaviours using a five-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. We provide empirical evidence that firms' financial behaviours are jointly determined. We demonstrate that a single-equation analysis on one financial behaviour generates biased estimates. We find that firms deviate from the desired level of each financial characteristic to absorb shocks to the other financial characteristics. Following such deviations, the characteristics revert in subsequent periods. Among these inter-related financial behaviours, equity decisions are the most independent, followed by dividend target, investment, and leverage target. Although firms prioritize financial behaviours differently, it appears that there is neither one financial behaviour that firms use only to absorb shocks nor one that never responds to the others.     

Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies

Using a panel of five Asian economies - Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand - over the period 1995-2007 we analyze the links between firm survival and financial development. We find that traditionally used measures of financial development play an important role in influencing firm survival. When stock markets become larger or more liquid firms’ survival chances improve. On the contrary, we show that higher levels of financial intermediation can increase firm failures. We also find that the beneficial effects of stock market development are more pronounced during the later years of our sample, while the adverse effects of bank intermediation have declined over time. Finally, large firms are more likely to benefit from developments in financial markets compared to small firms.     

Firm opacity and financial market information asymmetry

Information asymmetry could exist between the firm and the investors as well as among investors. If the information asymmetry between the firm and the investors is very high, all investors are largely uninformed, so information asymmetry between investors should be low. At the other extreme, if all investors are fully informed about the firm, again the information asymmetry between investors should be low. This paper finds evidence supporting such a nonlinear relationship between firm-to-investor and investor-to-investor information asymmetry. The inter-investor information asymmetry increases, and then declines, as the information asymmetry between the firm and the investor increases.     

Exploring household financial strain dynamics

Rising energy and food prices are causing living standards to fall across Europe and straining household budgets. The longer-term outlook for households is unclear as the dynamics of financial strain are not well understood. We address four important research questions on financial strain dynamics by applying a dynamic random coefficients probit model with duration and occurrence dependence to De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey panel data. We find no evidence that households become habituated or sensitised to financial strain over time unlike in studies of responses to stress. Entry into household financial strain is less likely when the household can cope by increasing earnings from work or by borrowing from family and friends but not by the economically inactive entering employment. Our third result is that the persistence of financial strain can be explained by a mutually-enforcing negative cycle through worse health but not through marital conflict or more short-sighted and risk averse decision-making. Finally, we find that neither income or wealth shocks affect financial strain in contrast to other studies. Further research into understanding the experience of financial hardship is warranted in the light of the economic challenges caused by the current cost of living crisis.     

Local financial development and growth

Using unique, district-level, economic growth data, I investigate the connection between banking sector development, human capital, and economic growth in Indian districts. Disaggregate data helps avoid many of the omitted variable problems that plague similar cross-country studies. The data show districts to be financially constrained by the lack of local banking sector development, and the relationship may be non-linear. For districts in the sample, moving from the 75th percentile of credit/net domestic product to the 25th percentile implies an average loss of 4% in growth over the 1990s decade. The data also shows that human capital deepening can reduce the financial constraint. In a district at the 25th literacy percentile, the implied growth loss due to a constrained banking sector is twice as large as in a district at the 75th literacy percentile. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls and changes in specification.     

金融功能、金融发展与中国金融体制改革

金融功能是金融与经济关系的实质、核心与基础。金融功能性资源比其他层次的金融资源更难得,从而更稀缺。金融功能层次的复杂化与提升,功能层次与种类的扩展与强化过程即是金融功能的演进,金融功能的演进即是金融发展。在此基础上以金融发展的金融功能观视角来进行中国金融发展状况的功能判断,提出中国金融体制改革的若干思考。     

Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle

We present a model in which net business formation is endogenously procyclical. Variations in the number of operating firms lead to countercyclical variations in markups that give rise to endogenous procyclical movements in measured total factor productivity (TFP). Based on this result, the paper suggests a simple structural decomposition of variations in TFP into those originating from exogenous shocks and those originating endogenously from the interaction between firms’ entry and exit decisions and the degree of competition. The decomposition suggests that around 40% of the movements in measured TFP can be attributed to this interaction. Moreover, the paper analyzes the effects on (i) the measurement of the volatility of exogenous shocks in the U.S. economy and (ii) the magnification of shocks over the business cycle.     

Firm R&D and financial analysis: How do they interact?

This paper demonstrates, theoretically and empirically, that firms’ research and development (R&D) efforts and investors’ analyses of their prospects are mutually reinforcing. Entrepreneurs attempt more research when financiers are better informed about projects’ profitability because they expect financiers to provide more funding to successful projects. Conversely, financiers collect more information about projects when entrepreneurs undertake more R&D because the opportunity cost of missing out on successful projects is then higher. Two natural experiments confirm that this interaction occurs and suggest that it contributes to about one third of the total effect of a policy designed to stimulate R&D. Overall, the analysis suggests that policies aimed at promoting R&D – such as research subsidies or tax breaks – have a multiplier effect owing to the induced improvement in capital efficiency. As a result, those policies can be rendered more effective by coupling them with other policies designed to increase capital efficiency. The feedback effect that we document also helps explaining why innovative ecosystems such as that in the Silicon Valley are challenging to set up.     

Interaction between economic and financial development

This paper presents a model of financial and economic development which assumes the consumption of real resources by the financial sector. Financial development occurs endogenously as the economy reaches a critical threshold of economic development. Compared to financial autarky, financial intermediaries allocate savings, net of their costs of operation, to more productive investments. Whenever the technology financed by intermediaries is more capital-intensive than that operated in financial autarky, the growth effect of financial development is ambiguous. As a result, financial development may be unsustainable. However, when financial development is sustainable, the credit market becomes more competitive and more efficient over time, and this could eventually contribute to economic growth. Nonetheless, given monopolistic competition in the financial sector, the level of entry into the credit market is generally inefficient. For instance, with diminishing returns to specialisation, entrants might be too few at the early stages of economic development and too many later on.     

人口结构转变与金融市场发展

文章分析了人口结构变动、居民财富增长和金融市场发展间的关系,通过实证研究,文章认为,在中国人口老龄化这一结构变动趋势下,未来股票市场可能面临下行压力,而固定收益类产品,尤其是债券市场将迎来发展机遇,但长期利率可能面临下行压力。     

农村金融发展的财政补偿领域与优先序研究

财政补偿日益成为我国农村金融健康发展的重要保证。本文分析了财政补偿农村金融发展的必要性和紧迫性,探讨了农村金融发展的财政补偿领域,构建了农村金融发展的财政补偿优先序。     

聚焦金融信息化发展 探讨金融业创新策略

2010年9月9～12日,以＂融合创新、稳健经营＂为主题的第18届中国国际金融展（以下简称＂金融展＂）在京成功举办。中国人民银行党委委员、行长助理李东荣致开幕辞,保监会党委委员、副主席魏迎宁代表银监会、证监会和保监会等3家支持机构致辞,国家开发银行党委委员、副行长郑之杰代表参展金融机构致辞。     

青梅煮酒论英雄——回顾中国金融信息化发展论坛

作为中国国际金融(银行)技术暨设备展览会(简称"金融展")的组成部分之一,2000年9月4日,中国金融信息化发展论坛第一次在"金融展"上正式亮相.虽然到目前为止,该论坛仅仅举办了3次,但是由于参加论坛专题演讲和讨论的都是中国金融业信息化领域中的精英人士,而且讨论的话题均兼顾金融信息化领域的现实问题与前瞻性,因此论坛的影响力得以在较短的时间内迅速扩大.对于某些更加关注中国金融业未来发展的高层专业人士来说,论坛的价值和重要意义甚至于超出了"金融展"本身.     

以改革促金融发展

近些年来,金融发展始终是全国政协委员关注的话题之一．金融如何发展7改革的路径如何选择7《国际融资》记者以此为焦点,走访了部分委员     

政策助推天津金融发展

6月10日至12日，天津市人民政府、中华全国工商业联合会和美国企业成长协会共同主办的第二届中国企业国际融资洽谈会在天津开幕。会议的规模释放的信息展示了会议的成果，值得关注的是会前会中天津政府领导对会议主旨的解读，反映出天津打造基金大本营和进行金融改革创新的势头     

金融衍生产品开发的若干思考

现实有时是一个充满不确定性、不可预测性或不完备性甚至错误信息的不断变化的世界。若把金融产品的开发简化为金融产品的设计与定价，其定价过程又是简单的数学化与技术化，偏离了市场和客户，那么无论其技术多么先进，最终将会招致失败的结局。     

扶持绿色发展有哪些金融资源

中国绿色金融存在八方面问题 中国环境污染问题日益严重,以大气为例,人们对雾霾问题感受深切,首先中国的重工业比例偏大,其次是烧煤要约占70%的能源消耗,最后中国人的出行方式还是以公路为主,有部分发达国家都是以轨道为主.总体来说,中国政府相关部门以及金融部门为支持中国的绿色事业做了大量工作,但目前还存在来自于八方面问题:一是从认识到制定政策再到执行都需要加强;二是金融机构盈利要求和社会绿色效益之间还存在矛盾,尚属一体化处理;三是中国的绿色金融中介机构还不是很成熟,专业评审机构和人才不足;四是激励机制相对不足,存在措施、政策和法律风险.没有完善的绿色金融组织体系,不能在保险、财税等方面形成合力;六是目前出台的一些绿色金融文件发布非常多,但是没有关于环保便于实施的具体标准;七是没有专门、全面的针对统计的内部监管;八是信息不对称,以及信息沟通不健全,没有充分利用大数据和互联网等方面技术.     

马骏:激励与引导绿色金融体系发展

解决环境污染须将三大经济结构改变为清洁产业结构 2013年全世界主要城市的P M2.5的数据资料显示,指标最高的是印度的新德里155,第二就是中国的石家庄150,之后是北京,绝大部分中国城市都超过了世界卫生组织规定的第二阶段标准,在中国,好一点的城市是海口28.发达国家的最终标准是10,只有悉尼达到了这个标准.     

离岸金融市场及其在中国的发展

离岸金融是20世纪50年代金融自由化浪潮中出现的重大金融创新。该文从追溯离岸金融市场的发展历史入手,概括了离岸金融的含义、特点,探讨了离岸金融市场出现和发展的原因,分析了离岸金融市场对于全球经济金融形势的影响以及发展前景,并就中国如何利用离岸金融发展中国的金融市场、扩展中国的金融实力、增强人民币的国际地位进行了初步探讨。     

Privatization,financial development,property rights and growth

This study analyzes how prevailing institutional arrangements i.e., property rights, contracting rights, political institutions, and corporate governance practices affect privatized firms’ performance, capital markets development, and economic growth. Most of the studies surveyed show that privatization enhances privatized firms performance, efficiency, and profitability, which percolates to economic growth. Privatized firms performed better in countries with better regulatory and legal frameworks. Partial privatization may be beneficial in countries with weak institutions, namely, the French civil law countries. The stronger the economic and the governing institutions, the easier it is for privatized firms to thrive and contribute to economic growth. Overall, privatization allows firms to achieve improved efficiency while driving the development of the financial sector.