The measurement of employment diversity for states and regions

This paper uses an index to measure the level of employment diversity at the state level of two periods spanning two decades. The index is based on aggregating employment at eight major sectors. The findings indicate a movement toward more specialization in the latter period (2000) as compared to an earlier period (1970s).     

Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth

In this paper, we study the sources of industry employment growth in each of five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The objective is to understand the relative importance of aggregate disturbances versus local sectoral shocks in generating observed employment fluctuations at the MSA level. The empirical evidence presented in this paper derives from structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), estimated for each of the five MSAs. Estimations use monthly employment data covering nine one-digit industrial categories for the period 1951:1–1999:8, as well as two variables that capture the influences of aggregate (i.e., national) shocks on MSAs. We find that within-MSA industry shocks explain considerably more of the forecast error variance in industry employment growth than do aggregate shocks. Sectoral shocks account for between 87 and 94% of the 36-month-ahead forecast error variance. Among individual local sectors, shocks to MSA-specific government, manufacturing, and service sector employment growth are the predominate sources of variability.     

BIG‐BOX RETAILERS,RETAIL EMPLOYMENT,AND WAGES IN THE US

This paper examines the dynamic interrelationship between the presence of big‐box retailers and retail employment and wages in the United States at county level for 1986–2005 using panel vector autoregressions (Panel VAR). The Panel VAR approach addresses endogenous interactions among the variables in the system. In other words, this approach takes into account the fact that the presence of big‐box retailers can have an impact on retail employment and wages and at the same time, retail employment and wages can influence the presence of big‐box retailers. Results indicate that the presence of big‐box retailers has a positive effect on employment but a negative effect on wages. The effect on wages is relatively greater and is more prolonged than the effect on employment. Both employment and wages have an instant (first year) positive effect on the presence of big‐box retailers, which implies that big‐box stores are located in areas where the economy is growing.     

The government wage bill and private activity

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of public wage expenditures in U.S. data by identifying shocks to public employment and public wages using sign restrictions. We find that public employment shocks are mildly expansionary at the federal level and strongly expansionary at the state and local level by crowding in private consumption and increasing labor force participation and private sector employment. Similarly, state and local government wage shocks lead to increases in consumption and output, while shocks to federal government wages induce significant contractionary effects. In a stylized DSGE model we show that the degree of complementarity between public and private goods in the consumption bundle is key for explaining the observed heterogeneity.     

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

The determinants of Australian trade union membership

This paper investigates the determinants of trade union membership in Australia using the Engle and Granger (1987) theory of co-integrated economic variables. Applying the theory of co-integration yields a model of union membership which can be interpreted as distinguishing between long-run and ‘business cycle’ determinants of union membership. The principal long-run determinant of union membership is found to be the level of employment disaggregated by industry classification. Business cycle variables—the real wage and the change in unemployment—are also shown to influence movements in union density. These findings are consistent with recent studies which have attributed the decline in union membership in Australia since the early 1980s to the changing composition of employment and movements in the rate of unemployment.     

Implied risk aversion and pricing kernel in the FTSE 100 index

This paper studies the estimation of the pricing kernel and explains the pricing kernel puzzle found in the FTSE 100 index. We use prices of options and futures on the FTSE 100 index to derive the risk neutral density (RND). The option-implied RND is inverted by using two nonparametric methods: the implied-volatility surface interpolation method and the positive convolution approximation (PCA) method. The actual density distribution is estimated from the historical data of the FTSE 100 index by using the threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model. The results show that the RNDs derived from the two methods above are relatively negatively skewed and fat-tailed, compared to the actual probability density, that is consistent with the phenomenon of “volatility smile.” The derived risk aversion is found to be locally increasing at the center, but decreasing at both tails asymmetrically. This is the so-called pricing kernel puzzle. The simulation results based on a representative agent model with two state variables show that the pricing kernel is locally increasing with the wealth at the level of 1 and is consistent with the empirical pricing kernel in shape and magnitude.     

Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

How Fast Do Banks Adjust? A Dynamic Model of Labor-Use with an Application to Swedish Banks

This paper deals with a dynamic adjustment process in which adjustment of a key variable input (labor) towards its desired level is modeled in a panel data context. The partial adjustment type model is extended to make the adjustment parameter both firm- and time-specific by specifying it as a function of firm- and time-specific variables. Desired level of labor use is represented by a labor requirement function, which is a function of outputs and other firm-specific variables. The catch-up factor is defined as the ratio of actual to desired level of employment. Productivity growth is then defined in terms of a shift in the desired level of labor use and the change in the catch-up factor. Swedish banking data is used as an application of the above model.     

A synthesis of the production function and the shift-share model : A new regional modelling approach

The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new approach to regional modelling and show the way by which regional expansion paths of output and employment can be developed. Basically, the theoretical model is a synthesis of the production function for the industry (or region), the shift-share model, and a set of hypotheses and a number of identifies concerning the growth components of employment. The growth components of employment specified by the shift-share model and explained by the hypotheses enter and modify the production function in the sense that the shift-share model is linked directly to the production function in which the labor factor appears disaggregated into three distinct components (regional-share, industrial-mix, and national growth component). The theoretical model was tested for the manufacturing industry of the Greek economy. The policy implications of this model center around the fact that policy-makers can affect regional economic variables towards the desired level and direction.     

Inter-city wage differentials and intra-city workplace centralization

We explore the interaction of inter-city and intra-city wage differentials by occupation. The paper makes two main contributions. 1) We construct an occupation-specific index of workplace centralization that accounts for the difference between average employment density from the perspective of employees in each occupation and average employment density from the perspective of all employees. 2) We provide empirical evidence that relative wages of central to non-central occupations increase with city size, or equivalently, the elasticity of wages with respect to city size increases with occupational centrality. We conjecture that this empirical regularity arises because, as city size increases, workers in more central occupations face an increasingly less desirable locus of housing prices and commuting times relative to workers who have jobs in residential areas. The results are robust to the inclusion of individual-specific human capital variables and city-specific fixed effects.     

The Markov consumption problem

The paper provides a new model of consumption behavior under uncertainty as the solution to a continuous-time dynamic control problem in which an individual moves between employment and unemployment according to a Markov process. Behavior at low asset levels and at break-even points is analyzed. An iterative procedure is developed to derive numerical solutions. The solution takes the form of two curves relating consumption to assets, one for each state of employment.     

Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition

This paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity, which is usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity, is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status, in particular employment status and household composition, are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes. Therefore, a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future employment and household composition outcomes. Empirical results based on data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (GSOEP) suggest that there are indeed such feedback effects and that failure to take them into account may lead to biased estimates of the state dependence effect. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Employment,Social Mobility and Neighbourhood Effects: The Case of Sweden

In science and in society at large, there is a big debate going on about the existence and potential impact of ‘neighbourhood effects’. The dominant question is: does the social composition of the neighbourhood have specific positive or negative effects on the career prospects of those who are living there? We seek to contribute to this debate by investigating the relationship between individual social mobility and the social composition of the residential environment. For that purpose we analysed new longitudinal Swedish data, which is available at the individual level. We particularly focused our attention on the employment careers of individuals in relation to the levels of employment or unemployment in their individual environments. Environment effects on social mobility were isolated, controlling for relevant variables that were available at the individual level. We were also able to control for changes in the environments over time. Individual longitudinal data could be used over the period 1991–9. The analyses revealed that their environment appears to have a moderate yet clear impact on the employment prospects of unemployed individuals. The academic relevance of the article is in its contribution to the theoretical underpinnings of the human–environment relationship; the societal relevance is to the area‐based policies and the housing policies aimed at social mixing, which are currently being developed in many places in the Western world.     

Evaluating cross‐national variations in the extent and nature of informal employment in the European Union

This article evaluates critically the contrasting explanations for the cross‐national variations in the prevalence and nature of informal employment, which variously view such work as more prevalent in poorer, under‐developed economies; driven by high taxes, corruption and state interference that lead workers to exit formal employment; or driven by inadequate state intervention leading to the exclusion of workers from formal employment and state welfare provision. By analysing cross‐national variations across the European Union in the size of informal employment using indirect measurement methods and in its varying character using evidence from a 2007 Eurobarometer survey, it was found that wealthier, less corrupt and more equal economies with higher levels of labour market intervention, social protection and redistribution via social transfers have lower levels of informal employment, much of which is conducted to exit formal employment. The paper concludes by exploring the theoretical and policy implications.     

Perceptions of On- The-Job Discrimination and Employees With Disabilities

This study examines factors that predict perceptions of workplace discrimination by employees with disabilities. Individual level variables are combined with organizational level variables in a single model of perceived inequality. Data came from surveys administered to employees with disabilities and their respective employers. Individual and organizational variables together provide a better understanding of perceived discrimination than either set alone. Despite the predominance of studies that demonstrate inequality in compensation, this study shows that employees experience discrimination over most terms/conditions of employment.     

Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

Employment protection regulation,trade unions and tenure of employment: An analysis in 23 European countries

This article focuses on the relationship between employment protection regulation (EPL), trade unions and tenure of employment. A main hypothesis is that EPL strictness tends to prolong tenure, because rigorous rules imply that remaining with the same employer gives more job security. The role of unions can be expected to be similar. These assumptions are related to issues regarding dualisation in the labour market. Data used are the European Working Conditions Survey 2010—including 23 countries and more than 18,500 employees—combined with national‐level data on EPL, unemployment, union density and collective bargaining coverage. The analyses reveal that EPL strictness and bargaining coverage are associated with longer tenure. The same goes for having an employee representative in the workplace. The institutional variables work through interactions with individual‐level variables. For example, the impact of age, which is strongly linked to tenure, increases with stricter EPL and higher bargaining coverage.     

Between groups and total income inequality indices; U.S. 19601

The study contains a theoretical analysis on the behavior of a between groups Lorenz Index. The variables affecting this index are utilized to construct between groups indices for white-non-white; rural-urban; above 65 yr old-younger; population groups by state for 1960. The constructed indices were then used as explanatory variables for the state total Lorenz Index. It was found that they explained over 80 per cent of the variance. Adding other socio-economic variables enabled us to explain over 90 per cent of the variance of state Lorenz indices.     

A model for manpower, employment, training and education

The increasing refinement and variety of economic projections can give the educational planner an extremely useful tool, providing he can find a way to convert sectoral projections of employment into educational requirements. In this study occupational data from the Census of 1960 were converted directly into their vocational educational equivalents so that cross-classifications by (SIC) sector permitted the derivation of sectoral employment/education coefficients. These coefficients, multiplied by projected employment in each sector, give projected employment in terms of the vocational preparation which is implied.

Using this approach, vocational preparation requirements were projected to 1975 for the fifty states and 224 metropolitan areas. The results thus generated show the variety which can be anticipated among the various regions in the United States, and can provide guidance to local and state educational groups in setting up programs at state and local levels.

A similar approach which used various national projections led to two conclusions. The level of sectoral detail can have quite important impacts on the “mix” of training requirements which results, suggesting that projections of this type must be based on quite detailed sectoral employment breakdowns. Second, shifts in patterns of growth can have marked impacts on some types of vocational training requirements while needs for other types remain relatively unaffected.