VAT attacks!

Like the theory of the second best that the 2006 congress marks, the value added tax (VAT) is now fifty years old. Judged by the extent and speed of its spread around the world, and the revenue that it raises, the VAT would seem to have been a remarkable success. Over the last few years, however, it has come under a series of attacks. This paper considers three of the most prominent of these. One is the fear (raised mainly in the United States) that the VAT actually does too good a job of raising tax revenue—which raises the empirical question of whether it has indeed proved as effective a source of revenue as its proponents claim and its opponents fear. The second is the view that the VAT does a bad job of taxing the informal sector—and that tariffs might consequently be a better revenue-raising instrument for many developing countries. The third attack is the most literal, by criminals rather than theorists: in the European Union and elsewhere, sophisticated VAT fraud, targeting its refund provisions, has become a serious concern. The paper also argues, more generally, that the many unanswered questions concerning the VAT reflect an unfortunate disconnect between the development of the tax itself and of second best tax analysis. I am grateful to Ben Lockwood and Stephen Smith for allowing me to draw on our joint work, and to Vidar Christiansen, Sijbren Cnossen, Isaias Coelho, Alain Jousten, Victoria Perry, and Emil Sunley for many helpful comments and suggestions. Views and errors remain mine alone, and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund.     

Revenue and welfare effects of financial sector VAT exemption

This paper provides an analysis of revenue and welfare effects associated with a VAT exemption of financial services, which is common among OECD countries. We follow a general equilibrium approach that considers effects of repealing the VAT exemption not only on consumer demand and intermediate-input demand for financial services, but takes account also of the VAT distortion of labor supply. We derive formal expressions for revenue and welfare effects, which can be quantified with a minimum of information about behavioral effects. Using VAT statistics as well as national accounts, we provide quantitative estimates of the effects of repealing the VAT exemption in Germany. Our baseline estimate indicates that tax revenues would increase by some €1.7 billion or 1.3 % of VAT revenues (excluding import turnover tax). Provided these revenue gains are used to finance a reduction in the VAT rate or in other distortive labor taxes our results indicate a modest welfare gain of about €1 billion, or 0.04 % of GDP.     

“营改增”影响地方政府税收努力研究

基于随机前沿分析法（SFA）测算2011-2015年我国地方政府税收努力程度,并运用双重差分法考察“营改增”对地方征税行为的影响。研究发现：“营改增”将地方税（营业税）变为共享税（增值税）,显著降低了地方政府税收努力程度;改革对税收努力的冲击受经济发展水平、转移支付额度和税收返还的影响,获取转移支付收入和税收返还越多的地区税收努力下降速度越快。后“营改增”时期,如何提高税收效率,缓解地方财政收入对转移支付和债务收入的依赖性,是理顺中央和地方财税关系,完善财税收入体系的重要问题。     

The value-added tax and growth: design matters

Previous research has shown that changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth. However, little is yet known about whether the way tax revenue is raised matters for growth. This paper examines whether, in the context of OECD countries, a revenue-neutral increase in the value-added tax (VAT), offset by a fall in income taxes, may have different effects on long-run growth depending on how the VAT is raised. We show that a revenue-neutral rise in the VAT promotes growth when it is raised through a rise in C-efficiency, while it does not when it is raised through a rise in the standard VAT rate, the rate applied to the largest portion of taxed consumption. C-efficiency measures the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption, which in advanced economies is largely due to the VAT that is not levied because of exemptions and reduced rates. Thus, our results suggest that an increase in C-efficiency, possibly reflecting the broadening of the VAT base through fewer exemptions and a more uniform rate structure with fewer reduced rates, promotes growth more than a rise in the standard rate.

     

A proposal to apply the Kiwi-VAT to insurance services in the European Union

In the spirit of the European Commission’s call for a simpler, more robust and efficient VAT system, this article proposes to integrate exempt insurance services into the European VAT, and to abolish the discriminatory, excise-type insurance premium taxes levied by the various Member States. The current VAT exemption (no taxation of insurance services and no credit for the VAT on inputs) is administratively complex and economically distortionary. Instead, the value added of property and casualty insurance companies can be taxed on a transactions basis by applying the VAT to insurance premiums (creditable by VAT-liable businesses) and allowing a presumptive tax credit for the VAT imputable to payouts (plus a credit for the actual VAT on purchases). The presumptive tax credit should be taxed at the level of business recipients, but individuals would receive the VAT along with indemnity payments without having to file a return. Exceptionally, the tax-credit VAT would not be applied to life and health insurance premiums, but insurers would be taxed on an accounts basis on the sum of wages and business cash flow.     

增值税转型对财政收入影响的实证研究——以吉林省为例

本文以吉林省为例,实证分析了增值税转型对财政收入的影响。结论表明:局部转型不会给中央财政收入带来较大冲击,短期内地方财政收入存在减少的因素、但影响并不大,对个别以单一产业结构为主的市县财政收入有一定的影响。Granger因果检验表明,增值税对财政收入变化产生的影响效应需要滞后4年才能显现出来;协整分析表明,增值税与财政收入之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,增值税转型政策在短期内会对财政收入产生一定的影响,但这种影响效应较小。     

Coordinating VATs Between EU Member States

The paper surveys coordination requirements for a final European VAT (short for viable integrated VAT) system. Using a set of criteria that can be identified from the EU VAT program for the single market, we analyze the potential superiority of the Commission's 1996 VAT proposal and four alternative VAT systems over the current transitional regime. We argue that the recent withdrawal of the 1996 VAT proposal is economically beneficial, as this VAT reform would have generated substantial costs for EU member states due to losses in national tax autonomy and adverse incentives in VAT collection and control. If the Commission adheres to its political desiderata, the VIVAT regime turns out to be a promising blueprint for the EU. If the Commission decides to lay aside its preference for compliance symmetry, and accepts that different treatment of domestic and cross-border supplies under the transitional VAT regime should not be regarded discriminatory in the Internal Market, then keeping and revising the transitional system should turn out to be a good VAT strategy for Europe.     

Value added tax non-compliance in the car market

We examine value added tax (VAT) non-compliance in the European Union (EU) car market. This issue is of paramount importance because of the loss of VAT revenue, the profound distortion of market mechanisms, and the dangerous variety of fraudulent schemes employed. In addition to the usual VAT fraudulent schemes on intra-community trade, the special regimes, and the different regulations for the sale of motor vehicles in the EU member states per se, favour non-compliance in the car market. Non-compliance also takes advantage of the lack of adequate and prompt information exchange among the tax administrations of different countries and, within each country, between the tax administrations and their departments responsible for motor vehicles. We highlight the fact that the current measures are insufficient to fight VAT non-compliance and that the new rules proposed in the ‘definitive VAT system’ are inadequate to control the proliferation of scams in the car market. Accordingly, we suggest more substantial measures: well-targeted and prompt cross-checks through archives and databases, and the monitoring of their effectiveness; electronic invoices; real-time exchanges of information between the different tax and transport authorities; and increased harmonisation of the special VAT schemes that aim to eliminate one of the most exploited opportunities for illicit gain, to the detriment of the EU member states.     

建立复式预算体系:意义、紧迫性与目标模式

预算改革的一个紧要任务是建立复式预算框架，将复式预算放到与部门预算等同的基础地位上，与部门预算并列、平衡推进。从当前政府收支的实际运行状况看，确立复式预算框架在重建预算制度中十分具有紧迫性。应该整体推进预算制度建构，统一国家财政，确立起由公共预算、国有资本预算、社会保障预算以及重大项目的专项预算组成的中国特色的复式预算体系。     

Optimal tax base with administrative fixed costs

This note characterizes the optimal base for commodity taxation in the presence of administrative fixed costs varying across goods. For low tax rates, the optimal base only comprises commodities whose discouragement index is greater than the ratio of their administrative costs to the tax they yield. An illustration with UK data shows that a category of goods should be taxed only if the revenue generated on this category is at least ten times greater than its administrative fixed cost. The cost imputable to the category of goods taxed at the standard rate would be at most 6 percent of total VAT revenue. The administration cost associated with categories of goods currently tax-free could justify exemption.     

The effect of VATs on government balance sheets

The value-added tax, VAT, has become a popular means of raising funds for governments around the world. Countries seeking to reduce variation in tax revenues as well as raise revenue to solve deficits often consider a VAT, and the IMF in particular has become an advocate for the tax for countries seeking tax reform. For all its popularity, its ability to deliver on these promises remains understudied. Countries with a lower cost of raising funds may instead choose to spend more instead of paying down their debts. This paper uses matching techniques to estimate the impact of a VAT on government debts and deficits. The tax is associated with falls in central government debt and deficits as well as expenditures as a share of GDP. There is limited evidence of increases in tax revenue and increases in stability of government spending. The choice of VAT rate is positively correlated with deficit reduction, and the effects of the tax are heterogeneous with respect to the probability of adoption of the treatment and what taxes it is replacing.     

跳开增值税专用发票行为的法律分析

跳开增值税专用发票尽管在形式上构成虚开行为,在内容上与真实交易不符,但该行为实质上是对增值税进项抵扣链条中由于税率"陷落"而产生的缺陷的修复,与税收中性原则相符,不会造成国家增值税收入实质性的损失,因而不具备税收执法与刑事司法上的可罚性。将跳开排除在虚开行为之外,需要对国家的增值税收入中各部分的正当性以及增值税专用发票管理制度的作用与目的进行重新思考,以确定国家享有的税收债权的范围,保障纳税人的限额纳税权,并且要在刑事司法领域对虚开增值税专用发票罪的犯罪构成和量刑依据进行统一。     

关于增值税的理论研究与实证分析

本文是对增值税理论研究和实证分析的一个全面综述。当前的增值税转型等税制改革将对我国宏观经济的各个方面产生重要影响,因此为增值税建立一个全面的经济学分析框架就具有非常重要的意义。本文从税收负担、税收收入、储蓄和投资、通货膨胀、社会福利、出口贸易和国际税收竞争等各个方面分析了增值税的经济影响,并且重点回顾了使用可计算一般均衡模型来模拟增值税改革的各类实证研究。     

我国地方税系的重构——基于税收分布视角

地方税系重构需要在考虑地方税收均衡程度的基础上进行,所以,理清税收在各地的分布状况及其差异系数非常关键.分析表明,地方税收的差异系数决定于进入地方税系的税种类别及其在地方税收中的比重.进一步,在中央与地方税收格局不变的限定下,通过模拟计算出地方税系重构八种情景下的地方税收差异系数.同时,基于模拟结果与各种因素的权衡,认为我国地方税系重构不能仅简单依赖增值税分享比例向地方政府的倾斜来实现,而是需要将车辆购置税与部分消费税划归地方政府,之后再以增值税分享比例的调整来稳定地方税收规模.     

Implementing Subnational Value Added Taxes on Internal Trade: The Compensating VAT (CVAT)

Thispaper describes an ingenious and elegant scheme for implementinga destination-based value added tax (VAT) on cross-border tradewithin a nation or group of nations. Sales to local purchasers(registered traders, households, and unregistered traders) wouldbe subject to the local VAT, but sales to purchasers in otherstates would be zero-rated for state VAT and subject insteadto a ``compensating value added tax' (CVAT). Credit would beallowed for tax on purchases by registered traders: for the localVAT on intrastate purchases and for the CVAT on interstate purchases.     

A Proposal to Improve the VAT Treatment of Housing in the European Union*

The treatment of housing is one of the most difficult issues under the VATs in the EU. Ideally, rents and rental values should be taxed just like other consumer goods and services, but doing so would present formidable practical and political difficulties. Under a second‐best approach, the value of newly created residential (and other) property is taxed as a proxy for the VAT that should be payable on the flow of housing (building) services. This implies, however, that future increases (and decreases) in the value of the exempt property are left out of the VAT base. To remedy this defect, this paper recommends taxing the increases (refunding the tax related to decreases) realised at the time of sale of the exempt used property. This VAT should replace the current transfer, registration and stamp duties, which are highly distortionary. Beyond that, the VATs in various member states can be improved by limiting the exemption for all used immovable property to housing, by taxing land and by applying the standard rate more widely than is currently the case.     

An assessment of the potential VAT revenue collection for the United Arab Emirates

This study analyses the effect of a 5% VAT in the UAE for the period 2018–2022. The methodology includes collection efficiency, standard tax rate and the final consumption expenditure (FCE). Various scenarios are analysed, including a constant 5% VAT for 2018–2022; increasing it by 2.39% yearly; increasing it to reach the maximum 2014 country tax rate of 27%; or increasing it to reach an average tax rate of 19.1%. The collection efficiency values of 0.4–0.7 result in a 2018–22 tax revenue to GDP range of between 1.75 and 7.84%.     

The Economics of a Reduction in VAT*

We explore the effects of a temporary cut in VAT, identifying three possible effects: an income effect as people benefit from a lower cost of living during the period of the reduction, a substitution effect as people bring their consumption forward and an arbitrage effect as people buy non‐perishable goods before the end of the period of low VAT for consumption after the VAT rate has been raised. International evidence suggests a clear overall impact on consumption, although the nature of the pattern depends on the way in which the data are analysed. However, the key policy issue is the impact of the VAT change on output and, to examine that, a simulation model of the whole economy is needed. Evidence from the National Institute's Global Economic Model suggests that the impact of the recent VAT reduction is likely to build up during the course of 2009. The reduction in VAT from 17½ per cent to 15 per cent is likely to result in consumption being augmented by less than 1 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2009. However, GDP is likely to be raised by less than half a per cent relative to what would have happened without the VAT increase. After the temporary reduction is over, both consumption and GDP are depressed as a result of the policy.     

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.