The Impact of Unseasonable Weather on Housing Starts

This study tests the effects of unseasonable weather on housing starts at the national and regional level. Goodman [1] examined this issue and concluded that abnormal weather conditions have little or no effect on the pace of housing starts. The models presented in this study allow the impact of unseasonable weather on starts to vary over each month of the year whereas the specification in Goodman constrained these effects to vary between only the summer and winter. In addition, lagged weather deviations are included in the model to determine if unseasonable weather affects the demand for housing or merely the timing of housing starts. The results suggest that unseasonable weather does affect the pace of housing starts in the months of the first quarter. Oddly enough, however, the results indicate that the effects of weather on starts are not offset in following months.     

Biased Prediction of Housing Values

This paper introduces the use of non-sample, prior information to the problem of predicting prices of heterogeneous products. Using data from the 1983 American Housing Survey, the predictive performance of three Stein-like empirical Bayes estimation rules are compared to the least squares estimator and the traditional biased estimation technique, ridge regression. The biased estimators improve upon the least squares mean square error of prediction risk under certain design-related conditions. We provide evidence of this for the housing market in this paper.     

The Accuracy of Owner-Provided House Values: The 1978–1991 American Housing Survey

The American Housing Survey (AHS) includes the owner's valuation of the house as a measure of the house's value. If owner-stated values are accurate, the AHS (as well as other survey instruments) can be used by researchers studying a variety of topics. In this study we use the metropolitan version of the AHS for three cities over fourteen years to compare owners' valuations with sales prices of houses that sold in the twelve months prior to an interview. We find that, on average, recent buyers report house values that are 8.4% higher than the stated sales prices. Further analysis indicates that these recent buyers, when compared with owners with longer tenure, overvalue their houses by 3.3%, on average. Thus, we find that the average owner overvalues his house by 5.1%. Also, differences between sales prices and owners' valuations are not related to particular characteristics of the house, occupants (other than length of tenure), or neighborhood. Thus, the use of the owners' valuations will result in accurate estimates of house price indexes and will provide reliable estimates of the prices of house and neighborhood characteristics.     

Impact of New Housing Construction on Racial Patterns

This paper inquires into the racial distribution impact of a projected significant increase in housing starts, under conditions of a federal fair housing law only now beginning to be effective and of an increase in the number of black families in the upper range of minority incomes. It examines the evidence within the broad context of changing urban forms and functions. The impact of new housing construction is analyzed under the headings of minority access to (1) new units and (2) filtered units in mover chains initiated by housing starts. Data are cited to support the conclusion that blacks' access to new units, while sharply increased over previous performance, will not have important effects on racial distribution, especially not increasing blacks as a proportion of suburban populations. Blacks' access to filtered housing, it is concluded, continues to be largely blocked by the dual racial market in real estate, except where such housing functions to extend the ghetto.     

The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California*

This paper examines the impact of growth controls on the price of new single-family homes. Four types of growth controls are discussed and each is found to have a significantly different impact on housing prices. Regulations that are imposed by one locality only are first compared to those that are imposed by a locality whose neighbors also control growth. In California, increases in house prices in communities with only local growth controls cannot be distinguished from communities that do not control growth. However, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase in growth control jurisdictions located in extensively regulated housing markets is significantly higher than in local-only or no-control jurisdictions. In addition, controls that restrict the rate of development are compared to those that specify the quality of development. In the extensively regulated San Francisco Bay area, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase was 35% higher in rate-controlled communities and 20% higher in quality-controlled communities than in no-control communities.     

自然灾害的影响分析及其应对措施

我国是世界上自然灾害发生最频繁、灾害损失最大的少数国家之一,而且随着社会经济的发展和人类活动的增强,自然灾害的损失还在以更快的速度增长,其产生的负面影响也不断扩大。因此正确认识自然灾害以及对自然灾害应对措施进行积极有效的实施显得意义重大。     

Estimates of the Effect of School Desegregation Plans on Housing Values Over Time

This study investigates the impact that school desegregation can have on the market values of affected residential properties. It improves upon previous studies in that it is able to estimate not only the "racial enrollment" effect but also "other" desegregation-related effects correlated with white perceptions of school quality, etc. Through the use of a controlled longitudinal and cross-sectional data set of property sales and a ridge-regression methodology, it is able to estimate these effects over time and separate them from amenity-related effects. Results are significant in that they predict substantial desegregation-related effects on house values over time, averaging 11.4% of property value, which correlate with school desegregation court rulings and other events. Furthermore, over one-third of the magnitude of this discount is related to desegregation factors other than actual racial enrollment patterns in the schools.     

税收政策对保障性住房供给的影响分析

在我国保障性住房有效供给严重不足、政府决心加大保障性住房建设的情况下,对保障性住房供给方式以及税收政策的影响进行了分析与研究。根据住房过滤与梯度消费理论,完善性地构建了保障性住房多层次供给模型。并以这个模型作为税收政策对保障性住房作用的契入点,分析了现有的税收政策对各种保障性住房供给的影响,提出了对保障性住房供给方税收政策改革的合理化建议。     

The Report of the President''s Commission on Housing:

This paper discusses the recommendations of the President's Commission on Housing in the area of low-income housing policy and programs. It concentrates on the basic policy proposals concerning future program directions, which occupy the first two chapters of the Commission's Report [7] . It does not attempt to address the continuing problems of extant public housing projects, which occupied a significant fraction of the Commission's time and is the subject of Chapter 3 of the Report . Nor does it consider the special housing concerns of the elderly and handicapped, which are treated briefly in Chapter 4.
The paper first describes recent developments in housing policy, up to the time when the Commission began its deliberations, in mid-1981. It then presents the Commission's analysis of the housing problems confronting lower-income households and summarizes the Commission's policy recommendations. These two sections correspond roughly to the first two chapters in the report. They attempt to summarize the Report as briefly as possible, and devote more attention to the process by which the Commission reached its conclusions, and the analysis which underlay them. The final section discusses the current political status of the Commission's recommendations.     

The Likely Impact of Increases in Deposit Rate Ceilings on Thrift Earnings and Housing Construction*

Simulations of a seventy-equation econometric model are run in an attempt to deduce the likely impact of increases in deposit rate ceilings on financial markets, the earnings of depository institutions, and the composition of nonfinancial investment. The analysis suggests that the effect of binding rate ceilings during the 1973–75 period was to raise home mortgage rates (by about 30 basis points), accentuate the downturn in single family housing starts (by about 40,000 per year), and maintain earnings at depository institutions. Without the ceilings thrift earnings would have been about a billion dollars less per year. However, this loss might well be more than compensated for by greater thrift earnings in subsequent years and by lower noninterest expenses.     

Effects of Housing Codes on Local Housing Markets

Housing codes are typically instituted in order to raise the average level of housing quality in a community. However, in doing so, the institution of a housing code likely has effects on other housing characteristics. Using data from municipalities in North Carolina, this study finds that municipalities with housing codes have higher average occupancy densities among all households and lower homeownership rates among low-income households, but housing codes have no statistically discernible effect on housing values and expenditures. The results suggest that housing codes are not costless; most importantly, codes force consumers to trade housing quantity for quality.     

The Affordability of Adequate Housing

A "quality-based" measure of housing affordability problems employing the cost of housing just meeting adequacy standards is proposed as an improvement over the conventional "high" rent-to-income criterion. Based on Annual Housing Survey data, affordability difficulties grew between 1975 and 1983 by either measure. The conventional measure, however, overestimated the extent of quality-based affordability difficulty for renters by 20% in 1975 and 24% in 1983 based upon Section 8 housing quality standards. In addition, 35% of rental households with an affordability problem by the conventional measure did not have an affordability problem by the quality-based measure, while 19 to 23% of rental households found to have an affordability problem by the quality-based measure were not so classified using the conventional measure.     

论住房制度改革及住房保障的发展

通过系统的回顾我国住房制度改革的发展历史,以及对住房市场和住房保障两条发展路线的梳理,结合福利经济学的观点,提出住房保障是住房市场的必要补充,是对社会财富合理再分配的观点.提出了住房保障应当与住房市场相互协调,住房保障的规模要与经济发展水平、社会发展阶段相适应的相互发展关系.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大.商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响.本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策.     

浅谈住宅产业的发展趋势

市场需求决定着住宅产业的发展趋势,现代住宅产业强调社会参与,以人为本的策划设计新理念,以创新为主导,提高住宅的高位价值。开发出具有时代特征、风貌特色和多样性的高品质住宅。     

Zoning and Industrial Land Values: The Case of Philadelphia

This paper examines the market effects of zoning. Using the hedonic framework, we perform an empirical analysis that shows that lots zoned for industrial use in our study area are associated with a 58% price discount. The paper highlights the outcome of static zoning policies in a dynamic world. As the demand for industrial land in Philadelphia declined (resulting in vacancies), prices fell, but zoning was slow to adjust, therefore land conversion did not occur to re-equilibrate.     

The Effect of Regional Growth Characteristics on Regional Housing Prices

As contrasted with strictly national housing reports, this article highlights the regional variations in population growth patterns and recently built owner-occupied housing as a means of determining single-family housing price components (i.e., developed lot values, homebuilding costs, and builder's profit and overhead) by region. The assertion that escalating lot costs and increases in new housing costs will limit the demand for single-family housing is challenged on a national basis and treated individually for the West, Northeast, South, and North Central Regions of the country.     

The Impact of Acquiring EU Status on the Earnings of East European Migrants in the UK: Evidence from a Quasi‐Natural Experiment

On 1 May 2004, 10 new states — including the ‘A8’ countries in Central and Eastern Europe — joined the European Union (EU). This article explores the impact of EU enlargement on A8 workers who were already working in the UK before 1 May 2004 — legally or illegally. More specifically, the article analyses the impact of the change in the legal (immigration) status that A8 workers experienced on 1 May 2004 on their earnings in the UK. The empirical analysis employs difference‐in‐difference estimation using data obtained from a relatively small but unique survey of migrant workers from four of the A8 countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Lithuania) and two other East European countries (Ukraine and Bulgaria), carried out one month before and six to eight months after EU enlargement in May 2004. The results of this exploratory analysis suggest a statistically significant and positive impact of acquiring EU status on earnings. The data further indicate that, in part, this effect was brought about by A8 workers gaining the right to freely change jobs after EU enlargement. There is no evidence of a ‘legalization effect’ on earnings.     

住宅消费公平价格与商品住宅性能认定

本通过对影响住宅消费公平价格形成的因素进行分析,并联系商品住宅性能认定制度,阐述了四类因素对住宅消费公平价格形成的影响和与性能认定的联系。对性能认定中存在的问题提出了建议。