基于减少旅客延误的航班中转行程优化

为减少中转行程中产生的旅客延误,在考虑中转过程中后序航班旅客延误的情况下,以中转旅客与后序航班旅客的总延误最小为目标建立优化模型;在满足航班运行限制的约束条件下,应用种马遗传算法对模型进行求解;使用北京首都国际机场的客流数据进行实例验证,并对不同旅客最短衔接时间的优化结果进行比较。研究结果表明:与经典遗传算法和增强精英保留遗传算法相比,种马遗传算法具有更快的收敛速度;在旅客最短衔接时间为120 min的条件下,优化后中转行程中产生的旅客延误减少了29.9%;当旅客最短衔接时间越小时产生的旅客延误越少,且模型优化效果较为稳定,优化百分比为25%～30%。     

Inequality,Nonhomothetic Preferences,and Trade: A Gravity Approach

We construct the first direct classification of goods as luxuries or necessities that is compatible with international trade data. We then use it to test an idea that has not been tested directly in the literature: Countries' income distributions are important determinants of their import demand, and, in particular, of the difference in their import demands of luxuries versus necessities. We interpret this result with the aid of a model in which preferences are nonhomothetic, thus relaxing a long-held and standard—but empirically dubious—assumption in the theory of international trade. Our model is strongly borne out by the results: Imports of luxuries increase with the importing country's inequality, and imports of necessities decrease with it. Our calculations imply that if income distribution in the United States became as equal as in Canada, the United States would import about 9-13% fewer luxury goods and 13-19% more necessities.     

On Delays in Project Completion with Cost Reduction: An Experiment

We examine the voluntary provision of a public project via binary contributions when contributions may be made over multiple periods. In many situations, early contributors are likely to pay a higher cost than those who wait. We show that in such circumstances the provision of the project always involves delay. Because this game involves coordination on complex, dynamic strategies in the face of asymmetries in payoffs, we examine behavior in the laboratory.     

Gradual Retirement: Preferences and Limitations

In the traditional retirement scenario, individuals work full-time or part-time until a given age, and then stop working abruptly. From the individual’s point of view, it seems more attractive to have a smooth transition, with gradual retirement. In Sweden and other European countries, specific gradual retirement programs have been created in the past 20 years, first in combination with early retirement programs and later to increase labour market participation of older workers. This paper surveys the existing literature on gradual retirement in the US and Europe and analyzes the relevance of gradual retirement in the Netherlands as a tool to keep people employed longer.      

Income and Effort: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Does income affect how much people value effort? If income has a negative causal effect on how much effort is valued, an increase in income will adversely affect the cultivation of a growth mindset. Achievement will then be affected because intelligence, abilities, skills, and intrinsic motivation are affected. By utilizing data from the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey, this paper shows that doubling income reduces the probability of an individual valuing effort by two to three percentage points. This study is the first to examine the effect of income on how much effort is valued. It addresses the endogeneity of income by using the regional unemployment rate, regional Consumer Price Index, and regional retail growth rate as instruments. Placebo tests were performed to evaluate the validity of the instruments. The negative causal effect of income on how much effort is valued implies that creating an environment where intrinsic motivations can flourish is of greater importance among higher income workers. Promoting employees with higher income may have a negative effect on engagement through the cultivation of a growth mindset.

     

Target Zones and Realignment Risk: An Integrated Approach

In this paper, it is shown that inflation differentials and trade deficits were significant determinants for exchange rate movements in the European monetary system. Since the target zone prevents EMS exchange rates from adjusting gradually to changing economic conditions, a standard regression model cannot detect this influence however. Therefore, a new econometric model is introduced, in which deteriorating competitiveness increases the probability of large depreciations and high volatility. These depreciations can be due to large devaluations or to panic reactions of the market due to expected devaluations. It is shown that the out-of-sample predictions of the model outperform the random walk, and that large arbitrage gains can be made in the foreign exchange market if our model predictions are used.     

中美贸易与气候变化——基于投入产出法的分析

贸易的全球化对人类环境产生了重要的影响,碳泄漏问题成为环境与贸易冲突在气候变化领域中的体现。本文以投入产出法为基础建立经济模型,计算了1997～2007年中美贸易对气候变化的影响。结果表明,中美贸易使得美国的CO2排放量减少了2%～4%,中国增加了14%～20%,全球增加了2%～4%。因此,在设计国际气候制度时应考虑国际贸易的影响,美国应该为中国的部分CO2排放负责,中国应提高工业部门能源效率,改善出口商品结构并且在环境与贸易利益方面做出权衡取舍。     

我国航空港客流的分析与预测

本文根据社会经济发展和航空运输需求之间的关系，探讨了影响航空港客运量的因素，从而建立起航空港客运需求量预测模型。并采用多元回归分析的SPSS软件和神经网络分析的EasyNN软件，对航空港客运需求量进行预测，从预测误差分析结果证明预测的可信性。     

Economic Science: An Experimental Approach for Teaching and Research

Economics experiments have been used to study theories and policies that are often difficult to evaluate with data from naturally occurring markets. This article is a selective summary of my work in the main areas of experimental economics: markets, individual decisions, games, and public choice. The discussion pertains both to scientific discoveries and teaching innovations.     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

An International Comparison of Banking Sectors: A DEA Approach

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to measure and compare the efficiency of the banking system in several countries and stages of development using the non-parametric?mathematic methodology Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Thus, we expect to broaden the range of studies about banking efficiency. Differently from most studies that use accounting data for measuring efficiency we employed market data, measuring returns and risk (calculated in different ways) in order to build a new measure of efficiency. This approach allows the comparison of different countries, which have different accounting rules and are not comparable using standard models. The main results suggest a downward trend in the average efficiency level of developed countries and a slight upward trend in the efficiency level of emerging market countries during the period. According to this study, efficiency tends to level off emerging and developed countries. It may be partially explained by the increasing globalization and integration processes that markets have been going through in the last years.     

F-字典偏好与稳定匹配

研究有同事效应的双方匹配博弈的稳定性。利用拒绝-接受算法证明了,当工人具有F-字典偏好而企业具有替代性偏好时,稳定匹配一定存在。同时,给出了F-对应偏好的定义,得出在F-对应偏好下,企业一方存在一个最优稳定匹配,工人一方存在一个稳定匹配将每一个工人与他最偏好的企业匹配。     

台商投资大陆的区位选择分析与实证研究

本文通过台商在大陆投资以来的历年数据,结合绝对、相对空间分布,分析了台商投资大陆的区位选择的特点,利用空间转移的概念,剖析了台商投资大陆区位选择的变化趋势。并通过实证分析,解释了台商投资大陆区位选择及其变化的原因,预测了其未来的变化趋势。