Seemingly inconsistent analyst revisions

In about 20%–30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that they are lower-quality, driven by strategic bias, and are viewed as less valid by investors. We find that these characterizations are generally inaccurate. Apparent inconsistency is largely driven by accounting and economic factors, with only limited evidence that investment banking-related conflicts play a role. Moreover, inconsistent outputs are neither less accurate than consistent outputs nor do they resolve less investor uncertainty upon their release. Overall, our results suggest that researchers should be cautious in interpreting the correlation between analyst outputs as a measure of bias or quality, and in using a single analyst output as a proxy for an analyst's overall views.     

公司治理模式与国家文化的关联性研究

人们已经越来越多地认识到,文化因素是建立或完善公司治理模式中不可或缺考虑因素.文化的因素到底在多大的程度上影响了各国公司治理模式的选择?各国文化模式与公司治理模式之间存在着怎样的关联?本文以霍夫斯特德文化模式模型为出发点,分析了文化因素与公司治理模式选择之间的关系,并试图探讨前者对于后者的影响,从而对我国公司治理模式的选择提供有益的路径.     

浅析显性存款保险制度的特点、优势及实现路径

我国正处在经济改革关键期,而金融是现代经济的核心,金融业的调整需要有效的金融监管制度和风险防范体系,建立存款保险制度已蓄势待发。只有以市场为导向,建立完善的金融机构、市场、运行和监管体系,才能有效地分散风险,为经济转轨和可持续发展提供强大的金融支持。而建立存款保险和允许银行破产等制度,能快速推进金融改革,使金融为经济实体服务,并充分发挥市场对资源配置的决定性作用,促进我国金融市场呈现健康、有序与持久的活力。本文在简要介绍存款保险制度的定义、类型及必要性的基础上,着重分析了影响我国存款制度建立的一些障碍,并提出了相应的解决办法。     

Corporate social responsibility and social capital

When corporations make an effort to be socially responsible beyond what is required by the law, this effort is often described as strategic—made mainly for the shareholders’ or managers’ benefit. A large body of literature corroborates this belief. But, could the incentives for corporate social responsibility (CSR) come from an altruistic inclination fostered by the social capital of the region in which the firm is headquartered? We investigate whether this phenomenon exists by examining the association between the social capital in the region and the firm’s CSR. We find that a firm from a high social capital region exhibits higher CSR. This result suggests that the self-interest of shareholders or mangers does not explain all of the firm’s CSR, but the altruistic inclination from the region might also play a role.     

对我国保险产品创新的思考

保险产品创新是保险业创新的重要组成部分,对于保险业的发展具有举足轻重的地位.本文从我国保险产品创新的必要性与可行性出发,着重分析了我国现阶段产品创新中存在的一些问题,提出了一些加快产品创新速度的思路.     

论金融企业文化的构建

企业文化是金融业核心竞争力的重要内容,建设卓越的企业文化是中国银行业可持续发展的重要保障,本文论述了企业文化对金融企业的重要意义和目前企业文化建设中存在的问题,并提出了企业文化建设的路径选择。     

儒家传统与企业创新:文化的力量

在创新型国家建设进程中,传统文化到底具有怎样的时代价值和功能?这是一个值得研究的重要问题。本文从非正式制度视角考察了儒家传统文化对当代企业创新行为的影响效应及机理。结果表明,儒家文化对企业创新具有明显的\"促进效应\",即企业受到儒家文化的影响程度越强,其专利产出水平显著越高。进一步检验揭示,儒家文化主要通过缓解企业代理冲突、提高人力资本投资水平和降低专利侵权风险等三条渠道影响企业创新。我们还发现,非正式制度的儒家文化和正式制度的法律环境在促进企业创新方面存在相互替代功能。特别是儒家文化的全员辐射效应有利于激发全体员工创新热情,进而提升技术创新成果的实际转化效率,增强专利技术对企业经营绩效的边际贡献。本文从微观企业层面揭示了儒家思想促进创新的内在逻辑,纠正了部分学者对儒家文化价值的消极认知偏见,同时丰富了\"文化与企业决策\"国际前沿文献,贡献了东方文化情境的经验证据。     

农村法人金融机构利率定价机制现状调查——以江苏省镇江市8家法人金融机构为例

利率市场化进程加速对地方法人金融机构利率定价能力提出了更高的要求。通过对镇江辖内8家农村法人金融机构调查发现,农村法人金融机构初步建立了利率定价管理机制,定价能力逐步提升,但在定价方式、客户信用评级体系应用、定价效果评估、经济资本管理制度、内部资金定价机制等方面仍较为薄弱,适应利率市场化改革的能力还有待进一步增强。     

Does IFRS make analysts more efficient in using fundamental information included in financial statements?

This paper investigates the efficiency with which analysts use fundamental signals when forecasting one-year-ahead change in earnings per share (EPS) in Australian and European contexts and the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on this efficiency. Results reveal that adoption of IFRS seems to increase analysts’ awareness of fundamental signals useful for predicting future changes in EPS. However, overall, analysts remain only as efficient as they were pre-IFRS in using these fundamental signals. While their efficiency in using the earnings signal decreased, it increased for non-earnings signals in the post-compared to pre-IFRS period. Furthermore, analysts substantially underutilise the earnings signal in common compared to code law countries. These findings are likely to be of interest to analysts and market participants when making forecasts and investment decisions, and to standard setters and regulators in evaluating the impact of accounting standards.     

Do Japanese Analysts Overreact or Underreact to Earnings Announcements?

Several recent studies have used U.S. analysts' forecasts to test for underreaction or overreaction to information in earnings announcements. These tests have provided mixed results. Evidence in Mendenhall (1991) is that analysts underreact. By contrast. results in De Bondt and Thaler (1990) show overreaction by U.S. financial analysts to earnings announcements. The current study contributes to this topic by examining over/underreaction by Japanese financial analysts. Test results show that Japanese analysts do not overreact to earnings announcements, market to book ratios and sales growth. Instead. there is strong evidence that Japanese analysts underreact to earnings announcements and that their underreaction is more pronounced for firms with mostly permanent earnings. Our results also show that Japanese analysts display larger forecast biases for earnings reported under U.S. GAAP as opposed to Japanese GAAP. Finally, we find that US. analysts discount information in earnings announcements to a larger degree (relying to a greater extent on information in past prices instead) when compared to their Japanese counterparts. Further, in contrast to their Japanese counterparts, these analysts display no optimistic bias. The results above suggest that the impact of each country's unique culture and capital norms will have to be taken into account by policy makers in evaluating the feasibility of harmonization of accounting standards.     

分析师预测准确度影响因素的研究

文章以我国2010-2012年深交所数据为样本,基于公司因素的角度对我国分析师预测准确度进行了实证研究。研究发现,分析师所提供的盈余预测偏于乐观,盈余波动性越大以及上市公司信息披露质量越好,则预测准确度越高;而公司规模越大、盈余管理动机越强以及盈余可预测性越差,则伴随着较低的预测准确度。本文的研究结果为提高我国公司财务报告质量、规范分析师行业提供了相应的思路。     

中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性估计

企业投资对资本成本的敏感性是识别货币政策利率传导渠道是否畅通以及IS曲线斜率的重要参数。本文基于新古典投资模型框架,使用2004-2017年中国上市公司非平衡面板数据,估计了中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性,并侧重检验了融资约束对企业投资资本成本敏感性的影响。估计结果显示:(1)上市企业投资的加权资本成本弹性显著为负,且已具有较强敏感性(长期弹性系数为-0.16～-0.27),价格型货币政策工具的传导条件在上市公司投资环节正逐渐具备 ;(2)对加权资本成本的结构性估计显示,企业投资主要对债务资本成本的变动较为敏感且系数显著为负,而对股权资本成本的变动敏感程度较低且不稳定;(3)与传统观点相反的是,非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性显著低于国有控股上市企业;较强的融资约束是导致非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性较低的重要原因,应重视民营经济面临较强的融资约束对价格型货币政策工具传导机制的负面影响。本文的研究为中国货币政策框架的转型以及价格型货币政策传导机制的有效性提供了微观经验证据的支持。     

人民币跨境结算对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响研究

本文从出口结构和技术创新两种渠道,建立人民币跨境结算影响中国制造业全球价值链地位的理论框架,并基于2011—2021年中国制造业14个细分行业数据,实证检验其影响效应及路径。研究结果显示,人民币跨境结算通过推动出口结构上游化和提升技术水平促进中国制造业在全球价值链中的地位提升,并且对中低技术行业的影响更为显著。本文基于研究结果,建议进一步深化人民币跨境结算机制,并与制造业的转型升级相结合,以促进中国制造业由“大而不强”向“强而优”的战略转变,并在全球价值链中攀升至更高位置。     

当前全球中央银行研究的若干重点问题

国际金融危机以来,世界经济形势发生了复杂而深远的变化,一些影响长期化的新现象、新问题、新概念不断涌现。作为全球重要的宏观经济研究力量,各国中央银行纷纷着手对后危机时代的新理念、新规律展开深入研究,并努力进行政策性的探索。本文重点讨论当前全球中央银行比较关注的三大问题:一是负利率政策的逻辑与效果;二是全球稳定币的宏观政策挑战;三是气候变化导致的宏观金融风险。现有宏观理论研究存在的不足及政策实践面临的新问题,对研究工作者而言,既是重大挑战,也是难得的历史性机遇。应立足中国国情,放眼全球百年变局,密切跟踪极具未来性的热点问题和理论前沿并将其科学应用于我国高质量发展时代的政策实践。     

主承销商的买入推荐可信吗?——来自中国的证据和启示

以2004-2009年的A股IPO公司为样本,我们探讨主承销商分析师买入推荐的可信性问题。我们的研究表明,在市场表现较差时,主承销商分析师倾向于给出买入推荐。此外,相对于主承销商,市场更相信其他券商分析师给出的买入推荐。我们还发现,其他券商分析师也能够识别主承销商买入推荐所包含的乐观性偏差。我们的这一结论为主承销商分析师所面临的利益冲突问题提供了直接证据,不仅有助于投资者更好地进行投资决策,也有利于监管当局对证券分析师行业对症下药,从而更好地保护投资者利益。     

Value relevance of analyst earnings forecasts in emerging markets

Even though research in accounting and finance has extensively examined the role of financial analysts in developed economies, this issue has not been thoroughly examined in an emerging market setting. In this paper, I examine whether, following a market opening, analyst forecast accuracy and the market's reliance on analyst forecasts increase with time. Accuracy is expected to increase over time as analysts exert more effort and gain valuable forecasting experience. Results indicate that time is positively related to analyst forecast accuracy after controlling for a number of other firm and country characteristics. Second, I posit that time should also be related to the market's propensity to use analyst forecasts to form earnings expectations. As markets open and investors become more sophisticated, the reliance on analyst forecasts should also increase. Results are consistent with this expectation. In particular, I find that in the first sub-period earnings expectations based on random walk exhibit greater relative information content than earnings expectations based on analyst forecasts. This pattern is reversed in the third sub-period where analyst forecast errors better explain returns. Incremental information content tests produce similar results. Future research should further investigate the relation between financial analysts and other important market characteristics in emerging economies.     

Global expectations and their association with corporate social disclosure practices in Australia, Singapore, and South Korea

This paper explores the social disclosure policies of large Australian, Singaporean, and South Korean multinational corporations. The researchers advanced arguments about why large multinational corporations respond to “global expectations” rather than simply to the expectations of those people residing in the corporation's “home” country. Two large international surveys conducted in 1998 and 1999 are used to determine global expectations. The results of the testing indicate a minimal association between global expectations, as represented by the two surveys, and social disclosure policies of large multinational corporations. Consistent with previous research, country of origin and industry of operation appear to significantly influence disclosure practices.