An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market

A sports lottery in Korea presents a unique opportunity for comparing a parimutuel‐type sports lottery market against a bookmaker market outside the realm of horse racing. Using two‐ and three‐game soccer final‐score betting in the sports lottery market in Korea, which features matches in the English Premier League, we compare winning payoffs in this parimutuel‐type sports lottery against corresponding payoffs from an established bookmaker market in the United Kingdom. We find that for outcomes with relatively high payouts (that is, lower‐probability events), winning bets placed in the sports lottery market have greater payoffs than corresponding bets placed in the bookmaker‐based market. However, the opposite is true for outcomes with relatively low payouts (that is, higher‐probability events). Results suggest that participants in the sports lottery market tend to bet more toward high‐probability events than the amount implied by the bookmaker's odds. Results also suggest that the favorite‐longshot bias is still present in the bookmaker market, even when there is less threat of privately informed bettors than in horse racing.     

Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets

The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value since purchase, and hold those that have not. We analyze the introduction of betting market “Cash‐Outs,” which provide a continual update—and therefore increase the salience—of bettors' paper profits/losses on each bet. We find that the introduction of Cash‐Out increased the disposition effect in this market, as punters sold their profitable bets with greater frequency than before. We do not, however, find that the disposition effect has any impact on asset prices, either before or after this intervention.     

Market In efficiency in Person‐to‐Person Betting: Examining ‘Known Loser’ Insider Trading on the Exchanges

Applying the Shin z measure of market efficiency to the relatively new person‐to‐person internet betting exchanges, Smith, Paton, and Vaughan Williams found “significantly lower market biases” compared to bookmaker‐dominated markets. A reduced favorite‐longshot bias is interpreted as evidence that insider trading on the exchanges “is not widespread” and “not as commonplace … as is sometimes portrayed in the media.” Given that the Shin measure assumes “betting with bookies,” whereas the exchanges represent “betting without bookies,” the present study employs the notion of ‘significant mover’ to empirically test for the presence of ‘known loser’ insider trading on the exchanges where traditional notions of bookmaking do not apply. Findings indicate that, far from being less problematized by insider trading compared to racetrack betting, activity aimed at profiting from “known losers” may be potentially commonplace on the exchanges. This includes profiting from horses that are unplaced. This study offers new insight into the efficiency of betting markets.     

Efficiency in Pari-Mutuel Betting Markets across Wagering Pools in the Simulcast Era

Simulcast wagering, where bets from across the country are taken at tracks, off-track betting facilities, casinos, by phone or online and incorporated into the same mutuel pool, has contributed to a large increase in betting volume on American horse races since the mid-1990s. This article investigates betting-market efficiency in the simulcast era focusing on whether the interrelated betting markets comprised of win, place (finishing in the top two), and show (finishing in the top three) wagering are efficiently priced. We find that the increased accessibility and betting volume associated with simulcasting has reduced, but not eliminated, the inefficiencies seen in prior studies. Despite the inefficiencies in these markets, arbitrage is not profitable because market closing prices are unknown when bets are placed.     

The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior

Sports and racetrack betting markets have been investigated by researchers for more than 50 years. Many authors have argued that the observed biases and inefficiencies in these markets are a consequence of bettors incorrectly assessing the objective probabilities that favorites or underdogs will win. This article is the first examination of the National Football League season wins total over/under betting market where the designations of favorite and longshot do not apply. The market is found to be highly inefficient, providing several opportunities for profitable wagering. We believe these inefficiencies are a consequence of the representativeness heuristic. Most significantly, there is evidence that bettors, when considering teams with strong records in the previous season, overreact to historical performance and fail to recognize the statistical phenomenon of regression to the mean.     

Examining Agency Conflict in Horse Racing

We study UK horse racing for signs of conflict between horse owners (principals) and trainers (agents). Trainers often prepare their own horses for races in addition to having outsiders' horses in their care. Utilizing betting market data to infer the expected performance of a horse, we find that owner–trainer horses outperform outsider–trainer horses, indicating that this principal–agent relationship is characterized by agent shirking. If the owner holds a large proportion of the horses in the trainer's stable, the shirking effect may be mitigated but not eradicated. In a separate result, we find that outsider–trainer horses are more inconsistent than their owner–trainer peers. As inconsistency is a sign of betting market manipulation, this suggests that the agent in this setting extracts a second, informational rent from the principal.     

Estimating the Effect of Individual Time Preferences on the Use of Disease Screening

Economists have long been interested in evaluating the role that time preferences play in a wide range of economic decisions. In the health care arena, time preferences may be an especially important determinant of many decisions—particularly the use of preventative health care. One potential barrier to patient adoption of preventative screening regimens is that they impose current costs on consumers with the hope of lower costs in the future. Using data from a national survey, we jointly estimate latent discount rate and preventative service demand models using a limited information maximum likelihood estimator (iterated M‐estimator). The results suggest that discount rates are generally inversely related to the likelihood of most screening tests.     

Efficiency,Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?

This article tests the efficient market hypothesis and the profitability of a simple betting strategy in college football. All games are examined that have a point spread for inter-conference matches involving a Power Five/Automatic Qualifying team from September 2003 through January 2016. The tests reject the efficient market hypothesis for these matchups, with a large subset of matches driving this result. The betting strategy evidence suggests it is nonrandom but it is not particularly profitable for the entire sample. However, there is evidence that betting on certain conferences to cover the point spread (win the bet) results in profitable returns over the period.

     

EXPLAINING THE MARKET POWER OF GHANAIAN BANKS1

A competitive banking system helps lower transaction costs and risks. It also helps make financial markets more efficient. In Ghana however, observers believe that the banking industry is not competitive and point to the huge spread between bank lending and borrowing rates as evidence. The Ghanaian banking industry is analysed for evidence of market power by computing the Lerner Index of banks using quarterly data from 2001 to 2006. The evidence is that Ghanaian banks possess market power. Factors that significantly explain the market power of Ghanaian banks are: bank size, efficiency of banks with respect to staff costs, the macroeconomic environment and time.     

Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to provide researchers with opportunities to test the efficient market hypothesis. This paper investigates the efficiency of a relatively new sports betting market, the National Hockey League, for 1990-1996. The market is found to be somewhat inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns. Consistent with previous research for football and baseball, bettors in hockey are inclined to overbet favorites relative to their observed chance of winning. Interestingly, the market does not appear to be converging to efficiency.     

The Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and Exit Strategies of Private Firms

The costs and benefits of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) have been oft‐debated since the inception of the Act. Much of the extant literature has assessed the costs and benefits of SOX to publicly traded companies. We focus on the costs of SOX compliance for private firms wanting to exit the private market via either an acquisition by a public firm or an IPO. Consistent with our predictions we establish two principal findings. First, SOX appears to have shifted the preferences of private firms from going public to exiting the private market via acquisition by a public acquirer. Second, private target deal multiples are increasing in variables that proxy for a private target's level of pre‐acquisition SOX compliance. These findings suggest that SOX‐related costs have both restricted the action space of possible exit strategies for private firms and led to lower deal multiples for those private acquisition targets that are less likely to be SOX compliant prior to acquisition.     

Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market

This paper studies the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market. We estimate a structural model of household preference for housing, real estate developers' pricing decisions, and equilibrium market outcome in five large cities. By comparing the estimation results from pre- and post-policy intervention, we find that, after home purchase restrictions are implemented, overall housing demand in most cities becomes weaker and less price elastic; meanwhile, real estate developers face higher holding costs and thus are willing to lower prices and sell more quickly. Counterfactual analyses show that in some cities alternative policy designs that cause less structural change of demand could achieve larger consumer welfare and social welfare than the implemented policy.     

MICROFINANCE PENETRATION AND ITS INFLUENCE ON CREDIT CHOICE IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM A HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY

This paper studies empirical determinants of how heterogeneous households are matched to different types of loan products in a credit market in Indonesia. A unique situation arose when a microfinance institution launched operations in our survey area during the survey period, and we utilized its market entry for conducting mixed logit analysis of households’ credit choices. Time-varying choice sets help us identify parameters regarding preferences for various credit attributes. Our results show that the new availability of small-scale loans without collateral requirement greatly increases households’ probability of obtaining credit overall. Households in self-employed business prefer formal credit as a stable financing source but are impeded in receiving it when they locate in a rural area, probably because of large transaction costs. The poorest households, however, might not be able to exploit new credit opportunities as much as richer households, even if the scale of credit is very small.     

Market and Welfare Effects of Mandatory Country‐of‐Origin Labeling in the U.S. Specialty Crops Sector: An Application to Fresh Market Apples

This study provides a new framework of analysis of the market and welfare effects of mandatory country‐of‐origin labeling (MCOOL) for fruits and vegetables that accounts for heterogeneous consumer preferences, differences in producer agronomic characteristics, and retailer market power. The market and welfare effects of MCOOL are shown to be case‐specific and dependent on the labeling costs at the farm and retail levels, the strength of consumer preference for domestic products, the market power of retailers, the marketing margin along the supply chain, and the relative costs of imported and domestic products. Simulation results for the U.S. market of fresh apples indicate that domestic producers are the most likely beneficiaries of MCOOL, followed by domestic consumers. Being unable to exercise market power on consumers or suppliers of fresh apples, retailers will lose if the implementation of MCOOL entails fixed costs. Imports of fresh apples decline after MCOOL introduction.     

The Discriminating Beta: Prices and Capacity with Correlated Demands

Uniform customer‐class pricing can do much of the work of congestion‐based or time‐of‐day pricing in communication or wireless networks. A monopolist exploits differences in the stochastic characteristics of demands. If demands are correlated and the firm faces a capacity constraint, then it can set prices to reduce the variability of aggregate demand, thereby reducing the probability of excess demand and the associated service quality deterioration. Demands that covary negatively with aggregate demand are valuable to the firm in much the same way that securities that covary negatively with the market are valuable in a stock portfolio. Customer classes that exhibit low covariance with aggregate demand realize lower optimal prices. Optimal capacity is also affected by these covariances. As long as demands are not perfectly positively correlated, expected costs of joint production are less than expected costs of serving demands separately.     

Economic theory amidst political currents : The spreading interest in monetarism and in the theory of market expectations

Summary Analytical frameworks useful for the exploration of processes developing in any given environment are significantly simplified constructs in the nature of short-cuts within the boundaries of far more comprehensive theoretical systems. The more comprehensive systems retain their crucial importance because of the recurring need to adjust and to reconstruct the short-cuts employed. Monetarism is a short-cut the interest in which has been spreading in an environment influenced bycountercurrents against what Schumpeter called the March Into Socialism, defined by him as a transition into a system in which all important economic decisions are made by the political authority. The monetarist short-cut has passed some performance tests reasonably well in economies in which only a few important variables are politically controlled. The monetarist approach is best interpreted as relating to the determination of nominal demand, hence, as bearing only indirectly on trends in costs, prices and in real magnitudes. New developments in the theory of expectations have also been in spired by countercurrents against the Schumpeterian March Into Socialism. This is because, regardless of the process by which nominal demand is determined, it is true particularly of free-market economies, that market expectations play a decisive role in determining the cost and price trends that develop, given the trends in nominal demand. Unrealistic assumptions concerning market expectations have turned out to be the most vulnerable element of the postwar period’s neo-Keynesian analytical constructs. While the package of propositions usually associated with the concept of rational expectations also contains unconvincing elements, the views underlying those propositions contain a valid and significant core which I prefer to describe as the credibility hypothesis. The most important policy conclusion following from this hypothesis is that market expectations can be conditioned to a firm and reasonably predictable policy posture and that there is a large difference between the efficiency of an economy in which this condition is met and one in which it is not. Basic political-sociological forces will decide whether analytical constructs focused on problems of essentially free market economies, such as those discussed in this paper, will retain their pragmatic significance. This is because it will depend on these basic forces whether Schumpeter’s prognosis about the march into a bureaucratic and politically directed economic system will prove realistic or whether he underestimated the strength of the countercurrents with which the recent spread of interest in the approaches I have discussed is connected. At least for the time being, the countercurrents seem to have acquired considerable importance in several major economies. Let us remind ourselves also of a qualification that Schumpeter added in the Preface to the second and later editions of Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. That qualification does not seem to have had much influence on his own betting odds, but he nevertheless stated it very clearly: “The report that a given ship is sinking is not defeatist. Only the spirit in which this report is received can be defeatist: The crew can sit down and drink. But it can also rush to the pumps”.     

Monetary Policies versus Regulatory Policies: Management of Peer to Peer Market Interest Rates

This paper studies how monetary and regulatory policies manage peer to peer (P2P) interest rates. Based on selected representative monetary and regulatory policies, this paper finds that easy monetary policies reduce the demand for online loans, thus reducing the market's interest rates. Monetary policies may increase the supply of online loans through rational expectation channels or reduce the demand for online loans through bank risk‐taking channels. Normative market‐based regulatory policy enables the P2P market to return to rationality, eliminates high‐risk investors and borrowers, and subsequently reduces market interest rates. Risk disposal‐based regulatory policy reduces market supply to some extent, resulting in a small increase in interest rates. Both easy monetary policies and regulatory policies have a great impact on the normal platforms. The interest rate of high‐risk platforms is less affected by the relevant policies, which is evidence that such platforms do not behave in accordance with the financial rules in general. Monetary policies mainly affect platforms with interest rates in a relatively normal range, while regulatory policies mainly focus on platforms with abnormal interest rates.     

Aspects of profitability that influence smallholder cash-crop preferences in northern Mozambique

This study analyses profitability in terms of relationships between various aspects, indicators and cash-crop cultivation preferences. Both financial and pragmatic aspects of profitability were found to be related to cash-crop preferences. Apart from the need to promote a crop with a good farm gate price and to reduce production and marketing costs, promoters need to strengthen the wider system by supporting profitability as well as household consumption requirements. The correlation between indicators of expected profitability improved as more financial and pragmatic aspects were incorporated. Smallholder farmers' rankings of profitability correlated better with cash-crop preferences when the analysis incorporated more aspects of profitability. In addition, the results indicated the institutional support needed to improve the profitability of cash crops. This simple method of identifying smallholder preferences for one cash crop among many is of paramount importance in the design of strategies for improving agricultural market participation.     

Customer Concentration and Public Disclosure: Evidence from Management Earnings and Sales Forecasts

This study examines the association between customer base concentration and corporate public disclosure policy. When the customer base is more concentrated, large customers face lower costs of accessing the supplier firm's private information, reducing customers' overall demand for the supplier's public information, suggesting a negative association between customer concentration and the amount of public disclosure. Alternatively, large customers have greater bargaining power and may demand that the supplier firm provide more public disclosures. Consistent with customer concentration facilitating private information flow from the supplier to customers, we find that the frequencies of management earnings and sales forecasts are negatively associated with customer concentration among firms with major corporate customers. These associations are stronger when the supplier and customers are engaged in more relationship-specific investments, when customers' private information acquisition costs are lower, and when it is less costly for customers to find another supplier.     

需求曲线的形状及其内在逻辑——破解吉芬之谜、构建中国经济学的消费者行为模型

经济学界在探讨需求曲线问题时经常颠倒了理论与现象或者事实之间的关系、颠倒了价格与需求量之间的因果关系、混淆了个别需求曲线和市场需求曲线,在不知不觉中陷入了一个无法自拔的逻辑困境。消费者的需求量不仅要受到市场价格变化的影响,还要受到其拟选行为的机会成本变化的影响。而消费者的需求价格是由其收入水平和偏好决定的。把“向右下方倾斜的需求曲线”当作一个描述消费者行为的具有普遍意义的定律,是不科学的。