The supply and demand for imports and exports in a simultaneous model

Previous studies on the behaviour of aggregate exports and imports have tended to ignore the simultaneous relationship between quantity and price. This paper investigates the price responsiveness of export and import demand and supply in eight African countries. The results indicate that export demand price elasticities are smaller when the sample is African. The import supply and demand elasticities were found to be generally large. The Marshall–Lerner condition of balance of payment stability is found to be easily satisfied. A positively sloped function of export supply is found to exist for a majority of countries in the sample. The average time lag of export supply is found to be about a year. The disequilibrium model is found to be more appropriate for import demand, import supply and export supply.     

Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply

This paper studies the demand for and supply of residential housing in urban China since the late 1980s when the urban housing market became commercialized. Using aggregated annual data from 1987 to 2012 in a simultaneous equations framework we show that the rapid increase in the urban residential housing price can be well explained by the forces of demand and supply, with income determining demand and cost of construction affecting supply. We find the income elasticity of demand for urban housing to be approximately 1, the price elasticity of demand to be approximately ?1.1 and the price elasticity of supply of the total housing stock to be approximately 0.5. The resulting long‐run effect of income on urban housing prices in elasticity terms is approximately 0.7, because the increase in income has shifted the demand curve outward more rapidly than the supply curve.     

Effect of the global financial meltdown on India’s aggregate export volumes

ABSTRACT

This paper sets up a demand-supply model to analyse India’s export performance (in terms of volumes rather than values) between 2000Q1–2014Q4. The main objective is to determine the impact of the financial meltdown of 2008 on India’s export performance. During the meltdown period, decline in price by India’s competitors in the international market resulted in (1) loss of competitiveness of India’s export goods and (2) a complete breakdown of the price mechanism affecting India’s export demand. Though export supply was not significantly affected by the meltdown episode we find evidence that exporting firms turned towards the domestic market to cope with the loss in export. The meltdown episode began to significantly affect India’s export demand and supply equations from 2009Q3. The demand and supply equations after that period became so unstable that ‘nothing worked’ for India’s exporters as they tried to counter the decline in export. Hence there was ample reason for them to panic and seek the government’s help. Government policies aimed at boosting export demand did have a positive impact on India’s export performance. Government policies to boost export supply had no impact except being palliative for the exporters at their moment of crisis     

A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of Trade with Decreasing Transport Costs

Decreasing transport costs are incorporated in the standard partial equilibrium analysis of trade by allowing the divergence—introduced by transport costs—between export and import price to decrease with the volume of trade. When the excess demand (supply) curve is steeper than the long run average cost curve for imports (exports), we observe that an import (export) tariff raises (lowers) the domestic price by an amount exceeding the tariff. Further, when the excess demand (Supply) curve is less steep than the long run average cost curve for imports (exports), the possibility exists that an import (export) tariff may lower (raise) the domestic price. These results lead to the important conclusion that tariffs cannot be used as measures of nominal protection across industries. [F10]     

基于ADL与ECM模型的出口供给弹性分析

以中国2005年7月到2010年6月间的数据为依托,基于动态模型实证对中国出口供给是否具有无限价格弹性进行研究后发现:中国出口供给的长期价格弹性为1.85;出口价格、产出能力、国内价格水平以及生产成本对出口供给的影响均存在滞后效应,其中产出能力对出口供给的影响最大。     

Trade Policies for Exporting Industries under Free Entry

This paper computes optimal export taxes and domestic production subsidies for exporting industries under free entry. We show that domestic welfare is not at maximum, as is typically believed, when the export price is a monopoly price, and the domestic price is a competitive price, because a market structure effect has to be taken into account. Furthermore, we show that the optimal tax/subsidy formulas for an oligopoly coincide with those under perfect competition, if foreign and domestic demand functions are both linear. We also discuss optimal trade policies when only one instrument is available, and we run numerical simulations to determine and compare optimal trade taxes under endogenous and exogenous market structures.     

An export model for the Belgian industry

A two-equation model for the export volume and the export price of the Belgian industry is specified as a convex combination of demand and supply determinants and estimated using Bayesian inference methods. The results indicate that, in the medium run, industrial exports are mainly explained by the behaviour of price taking suppliers.     

Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves

The reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.     

Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand,scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil

This article focuses on a growth model in which (unlike other models) low (high) export demand elasticities and the fact that developing countries are importers of capital goods help explaining the slow (high) growth of these countries in the transition and in the steady state. The question arises whether export demand elasticities are low or high. For answering this question, export demand elasticities for the case of Brazil are obtained by estimation of the model. As a by-product of estimating the model, we obtain estimates for total-factor productivity growth and for scale economies. Based on the results from estimation we calculate steady-state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as dynamic steady-state gains from trade. The model and the results are discussed in regard to several strands of literature.     

Disentangling supply and demand shifts: the impacts on world salmon price

To understand price changes, one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price. Conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities, we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand. The relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011. The results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions. While average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant, price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region. This indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price. The procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative impacts of supply and demand shifts on price in any market with unstable price behaviour.     

Differentiable Technology,the Curvature of the Profit Function,and the Response of Supply to Own-Price Changes

The author establishes a property of supply for a competitive firm: Assuming differentiability of the production frontier, linearly independent price vectors have disjoint image sets under the supply mapping. This property supports the main results. First, the author drew a simple proof of McFadden's proposition that differentiability of the production frontier is necessary and sufficient for strict quasiconvexity of the profit function. This proposition rules out linearity of the profit function on any subset of price domain, in turn ruling out supply and input- demand functions that are constant and have zero values for all price effects. Second, for discrete price changes, own-price effects in supply are strictly positive, assuming a differentiable technology. In this context, strict convexity of the production set is irrelevant. The author indicates implications for cost and demand theory.     

Coalition-proof supply function equilibria in oligopoly

In an industry where firms compete via supply functions, the set of equilibrium outcomes is large. If decreasing supply functions are ruled out, this set is reduced significantly, but remains large. Specifically, the set of prices that can be sustained by supply function equilibria is the interval between the competitive price and the Cournot price. In sharp contrast, when the number of firms is above a threshold we identify (e.g., three if demand is linear), only the Cournot outcome can be sustained by a coalition-proof supply function equilibrium.     

The competitive nature of the nursing home industry: price mark ups and demand elasticities

Nursing home markets are likely to deviate from a competitive structure because of limitations on entry imposed by Certificate of Need (CON) regulations and the potential for product differentiation along such attributes as location, religious affiliation and quality. This paper investigates the structure of nursing home markets in New York State by calculating price mark ups and residual private pay demand elasticities. It shows that the residual demand elasticity is bound by estimates based on price mark ups above marginal costs and above Medicaid rates. This approach allows estimation of demand elasticities in all markets, whether or not CON regulations constrain bed supply. Mean price elasticities (in absolute value) calculated for nursing homes in New York State in 1991 ranged from 3.46 to 3.85.     

Euro area,oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area (EA) macroeconomic variables by estimating with Bayesian methods a two-country New Keynesian model of EA and rest of the world (RW). Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We obtain the following results. First, a 10% increase in the international price of oil generates an increase of about 0.1 annualized percentage points in EA consumer price inflation. Second, the same increase in the oil price generates a decrease in EA gross domestic product (GDP) of around 0.1% and a trade deficit, if it is due to negative oil supply or positive oil-specific demand shocks. Third, it generates a mild EA GDP increase and a trade surplus if due to a positive RW aggregate demand shock. Fourth, the increase in the oil price over the 2004–2008 period did not induce stagflationary effects on the EA economy because it was associated with positive RW aggregate demand shocks. The drop in RW aggregate demand contributes to explain the 2008 fall in oil prices, EA GDP and inflation.     

The contemporaneous correlation between price shocks and output shocks

Until the 1990s, prices were believed to be procyclical. Several researchers have since presented evidence of counter-cyclical prices. This evidence proved robust, but its interpretation has varied. Some have argued that the contemporaneous correlation between output and prices reflects both the source of the current shock and the adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium; the adjustment to the long run imparts a bias towards a negative price-output correlation. The issue of dynamics is addressed by estimating price shocks and output shocks. The sign of the correlation between these shocks does not reveal anything about the relative importance or frequency of demand versus supply shocks; however, some understanding is gained from the time-series of the product of the shocks. In periods when the product is negative, supply shocks must have been either relatively large or relatively important. In periods when the product is positive, demand shocks must have been either relatively large or relatively important. The data suggest that the economies of the USA, Canada and the UK were buffeted by both demand and supply shocks in about equal portions.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.     

Commodity Price Instability and Debt-linking by Developing Countries

Most developing countries borrow in world capital markets. Typically this borrowing is denominated in one of the major currencies and requires periodic servicing. The foreign exchange required to meet the service obligation is often dependent on the export of one or a small number of commodities. This demand usually competes with a number of other claims on export earnings, including both consumption and capital goods imports. This paper investigates the use of commodity-linked borrowing by developing countries. If the interest and/or principal payments on external debt are linked to the price of a country's principal exports, the risk of default can be shifted to better-diversified lenders. The social cost of linking is much smaller than that of other compensating arrangements. In addition, commodity-linked debt may reduce the borrower's direct lending costs. This will depend on the quantity of linked debt supplied and the dispersion of expectations about the future price of the commodity. If the supply is small relative to the demand among investors who expect the commodity price to increase, the resulting reduction in the cost of borrowing may be sufficient to offset the premium for bearing the risk associated with the commodity's future price.     

Vertically Related Markets: Export Rivalry Between DC and LDC Firms*

We present a model of export rivalry in vertically related markets where a DC firm produces a high-quality good as well as a key input utilized by an LDC firm to produce a low-quality export good. the DC firm acts as a Stackelberg leader by setting the price of the input and the quantity of its export good. We show that the DC firm's decision on vertical supply depends on the cost, demand, and quality parameters of both producers, and that the LDC government should tax either its final good exports or its key input imports.     

An estimation of import demand,export supply and technical change for Korea

This paper estimates import demand and export supply functions for Korea based on the translog restricted profit (or GNP) function. It also estimates biases of technological change and applies decomposition analysis to examine the effects of technical change on input demand within the profit function framework. Our findings show that (a) factor inputs, as well as outputs, are, in general, moderately price-elastic and substitutable among each other. (b) the production of investment goods, as well as export goods, is capital-intensive while the production of consumption goods is labout-intensive, (c) technical change is labour-saving and is biased against imports, and (d) there has been a rapid decline of export supply price-elasticity which may be attributable to the rapid growth of export share of GDP (from 4% in 1964 to 38% in 1983). The larger the relative size of export sector and the faster the rate of its growth, the harder will it be to expand export production by drawing own resources from the domestic sector.     

Long–run price and income elasticities of demand for Hong Kong exports: a structural cointegrating VAR approach

This article revisits a system of export volume and price equations to estimate the long–run price and income effects in the demand for Hong Kong's exports. Using a recently developed restricted cointegrating VAR approach it tests theorybased restrictions and obtains estimates of the long–run structural coefficients. The estimation results provide supporting evidence for the theory–based restrictions and suggest that the demand for Hong Kong's exports is both price and income elastic. This article is therefore able to present a long–run model of Hong Kong's exports that is both theory and data consistent, and long–run elasticities that are economically interpretable. The short–run properties of the model are illustrated by means of persistence profiles, which confirm the cointegrating vectors tendency of convergence.