The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth

In this paper, we reassess the impact of inequality on growth. The majority of previous papers have employed (system) GMM estimation. However, recent simulation studies indicate that the problems of GMM when using non‐stationary data such as GDP have been grossly underestimated in applied research. Concerning predetermined regressors such as inequality, GMM is outperformed by a simple least‐squares dummy variable estimator. Additionally, new data have recently become available that not only double the sample size compared to most previous studies, but also address the substantial measurement issues that have plagued past research. Using these new data and an LSDV estimator, we provide an analysis that both accounts for the conditions where inequality is beneficial or detrimental to growth and distinguishes between market‐driven inequality and redistribution. We show that there are situations where market inequality affects growth positively while redistribution is simultaneously beneficial.     

收入不平等对经济增长影响的实证研究

采用联立方程分析方法,实证分析了收入不平等对经济增长影响的三种机制,探讨了收入不平等如何通过影响物质资本投资、人力资本投资和居民消费来作用于经济增长。结果表明,从长期看收入不平等的扩大会刺激物质资本投资,但不利于人力资本投资和居民消费增长,收入不平等对经济增长的长期影响为负。因此,从经济发展的角度政府不应容忍收入不平等的过分扩大。     

Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say?

This paper describes the correlations between inequality and the growth rates in cross-country data. Using non-parametric methods, we show that the growth rate is an inverted U-shaped function of net changes in inequality: changes in inequality (in any direction) are associated with reduced growth in the next period. The estimated relationship is robust to variations in control variables and estimation methods. This inverted U-curve is consistent with a simple political economy model but it could also reflect the nature of measurement errors, and, in general, efforts to interpret this evidence causally run into difficult identification problems. We show that this non-linearity is sufficient to explain why previous estimates of the relationship between the level of inequality and growth are so different from one another.     

Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data

While most cross-country studies find a negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth, studies that use panel data suggest the presence of a positive relationship between inequality and growth. This paper uses a cross-state panel for the United States to assess the relationship between inequality and growth. Using both standard fixed effects and GMM estimations, this paper does not find evidence of a positive relationship between inequality and growth but finds some evidence in support of a negative relationship between inequality and growth. The paper, however, shows that the relationship between inequality and growth is not robust and that small differences in the method used to measure inequality can result in large differences in the estimated relationship between inequality and growth.     

A World of Contrasted but Interdependent Inequality Regimes: The Latin America Paradox

The previous issue of this journal published an explanation of three contemporary paradoxes: dramatically increased inequalities in China despite economic development reducing poverty; the excessively large costs incurred by the state following a surge of inequality in the finance-led growth regime of the United States (US); and, within Europe, some social democratic countries continue to exhibit a complementarity between and extended welfare system, more moderate inequalities and a dynamic innovation and production system. This analysis concluded that the US, Chinese and European inequality regimes are different but they express complementary growth patterns. Applying the same socio-economic approach, based upon the concept of inequality regimes, this article addresses another contemporary paradox. Latin America, previously the continent with the highest inequality, has reversed the former dynamics to exhibit a growth pattern based upon inequality reduction, while still relying heavily upon a strong international demand for commodities. This analysis investigates the durability and likelihood of the Latin American U-turn and concludes that there is a possible alternative to the hypothesis of an irreversible globalization of inequality because China, North America, Europe and Latin America do not follow the same trajectory, having developed contrasting regimes of inequality that co-evolve and are largely complementary at the global level. Consequently the future of more inclusive Latin American (and other) economies depends on the interaction between new domestic democratic advances and the reconfiguration of the international economy.     

收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长——一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究

本文从有效需求角度入手,探究中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等之间的关系,并运用中国1978-2005年间28个省市的面板数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中国经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求、劳动力、投资、教育以及收入分配不平等和有效需求交互影响之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求具有长期的均衡关系,收入分配不平等通过有效需求机制阻碍了经济增长,且在短期内效果也非常显著。     

收入不平等对经济增长的倒U型影响:理论和实证

文章致力于从理论和实证两个维度,探讨收入不平等对长期经济增长"先促进后阻碍"的"倒U型"影响.文章首先基于一个拉姆齐模型,从理论上证明这一"倒U型"关系的存在;其次是构建实证模型,根据跨国横截面数据,分别运用OLS和GMM估计方法从实证的角度检验这一"倒U型"关系的存在.实证结果显示:GMM估计方法要优于OLS估计方法,在其他条件不变情况下,收入不平等有一个合理区间,如果以基尼系数衡量不平等程度,这一数值处于0.37-0.40之间.当一国初始收入不平等程度低于最优值时,可以通过提高收入不平等程度来加快经济增长的速度;反之,则应通过降低收入不平等程度来促进经济的增长.     

Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries

Evidence from a broad panel of countries shows little overall relation between income inequality and rates of growth and investment. For growth, higher inequality tends to retard growth in poor countries and encourage growth in richer places. The Kuznets curve—whereby inequality first increases and later decreases during the process of economic development—emerges as a clear empirical regularity. However, this relation does not explain the bulk of variations in inequality across countries or over time.     

中国经济增长与收入差距关系的经验研究

经济增长与收入差距的关系是一个古老而又充满活力的问题。研究发现,尽管全国总量时序数据的Granger因果关系检验表明,中国的经济增长与收入差距不存在任何方向的因果关系,但以各省GDP增长率和城乡收入比为观测点的面板数据检验结果显示:不论是在短期还是在长期,收入差距的扩大都是引起经济增长的Granger原因;经济增长在短期会引起收入差距的扩大,但从长期看,有助于收入差距的缩小。     

我国城乡居民收入差别对经济增长约束的实证分析

1985年以来,我国的城乡居民收入差别在波动中呈扩大趋势,并对我国的经济增长产生约束.本文利用调整的城乡居民收入比率测度了我国的城乡居民收入差别状况,并分析了其对我国经济增长的约束程度和产生约束的作用机制.     

信贷约束、再分配及不平等对增长的影响

当信贷对那些禀赋较少的当事人是完全可获取时,再分配对长期增长无影响.当信贷不可得时,再分配可以促进经济增长.富人与穷人之间的不平等程度越高,越容易刺激穷人掠夺富人的财富,并牺牲了总的投资与增长.恰当的再分配政策设计可以有利于禀赋少者并促进总的产出,并使社会朝着增长与和谐的方向努力.     

经济增长与收入差距:一个基于主体的经济模拟途径

本文提供了一个基于主体的转轨经济模型,用于分析经济转轨过程中经济增长和收入差距的动态关联性.模拟实验结果表明:随着经济的持续增长,收入差距经历一个先扩大后缩小的过程;实施适度的累进税政策会在缩小收入差距的同时,促进经济高速增长.     

Inadequate Bivariate Measures of Health Inequality: The Impact of Income Distribution*

Bivariate measures of health inequality are influenced by changes in two variables: health and a socioeconomic variable, such as income. For these measures, what is reported as an increase in health inequality might just as well be a reduction in income inequality. In particular, several papers have found that socioeconomic health inequalities in Nordic countries are no less than in other European countries. The correct interpretation could just be that income inequality is no higher in Nordic countries than in the rest of Europe. The problem is especially profound when the causality is running from health to income.     

Four Levers of Redistribution: The Impact of Tax and Transfer Systems on Inequality Reduction

We use harmonized survey data from the Luxembourg Income Study to assess the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers across 22 OECD countries over the 1999–2016 period. After imputing missing tax data (employer social-security contributions), we measure the reduction in income inequality from four key levers of tax and transfer systems: the average tax rate, tax progressivity, the average transfer rate, and transfer targeting. Our methodological improvements produce the following results. First, tax redistribution dominates transfer redistribution (excluding pensions) in most countries. Second, targeting explains very little of the cross-country variation in inequality reduction. In contrast, both tax progressivity and the average tax rate have large impacts on redistribution. Last, there seem to be political tradeoffs: high average tax rates are not found together with highly progressive tax systems.     

The Impact of Natural Disasters on Income Inequality: Analysis using Panel Data during the Period 1970 to 2004

Although natural disasters have been found to influence economic growth, their impact on income inequality has not yet been explored. This paper uses cross-country panel data during the period 1965 to 2004 to examine how the occurrence of natural disasters has affected income inequality. The major findings of this study are that although natural disasters have increased income inequality in the short (5 years) term, this effect disappears in the long term (10 years). These findings are observed even after the fixed effects of year and country are controlled for.     

教育不平等、增长非平衡与低发展陷阱——对农村教育和农村经济协调发展的考察

改革开放以来,我国城乡差距、农村的地区发展差距有所扩大,不公平的教育资源分配导致人力资本的不平等配置,要根本解决经济发展差距问题,达到均衡发展的目的,关键之一是要解决好农村教育的全面协调发展问题。要打破这种不均衡的教育资源配置和低发展的陷阱,必须提出教育扶贫的理念和措施。教育扶贫就是通过提高整个农村特别是落后地区农村居民的受教育水平、职业技能,进而达到促进当地经济发展的目的,这不但是对教育本身有意义,而且由于其对经济社会长期性、根本性的影响,在某种意义上讲甚至比经济扶贫更重要,针对农村教育的现状和特征,必须加大教育扶贫的力度,提高扶贫的效率。     

我国收入差距与经济增长的面板协整与因果关系研究

笔者运用最近发展起来的面板协整技术,分析了我国收入差距与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,全国以及东中西部的收入差距与经济增长之间存在长期的稳定关系;尽管对于全国和东部地区,收入差距和经济增长的因果关系并不明显,但对于中部和西部,收入差距和经济增长之间存在长期和短期的因果关系。     

The Division of Labor, Inequality and Growth

We present a model that links the division of labor and economic growth with the division of wealth in society. When capital market imperfections restrict the access of poor households to capital, the division of wealth affects individual incentives to invest in specialization. In turn, the division of labor determines the dynamics of the wealth distribution. A highly concentrated distribution of wealth leads to a low degree of specialization, low productivity, and low wages. In that case workers are unable to accumulate enough wealth to invest in specialization. Hence, in a highly unequal society, there is a vicious cycle in which the degree of specialization, productivity and wages stay low, wealth and income inequality stays high and the economy stagnates. By contrast, greater equality increases investment in specialization and leads to a greater division of labor and higher long run development.     

Impact of Human Capital Endowments on Inequality of Outcomes in Cameroon

This paper evaluates the impact of human capital endowments on measured inequality in Cameroon. We first estimate determinants of household economic well‐being (HEW) in which human capital endowments are considered as endogenous effort‐related regressors, while controlling for exogenous circumstance‐related variables. Second, we simulate alternative counterfactual distributions of HEW: one in which human capital endowments are equalized; and the other in which variations are entirely attributable to the unobservable terms. Finally we compare inequality in the factual distribution of household well‐being with inequality in each of the simulated distributions. Direct and indirect exogenous opportunity‐inducing circumstances are inequality‐augmenting, whereas human capital endowments are inequality‐reducing in the actual distribution. Education and health interventions will ameliorate well‐being and mitigate inequality. Thus, leveling the playing ground for individuals to have equitable exposure to education, health and labor market participation is required for a low‐income country like Cameroon to enhance equity and sustainable household economic growth.     

技术进步、经济增长与失业:新古典熊彼特主义经济理论的新进展

Aghion和Howitt把熊彼特主义的"创造性破坏"模型与劳动力市场搜寻匹配理论结合起来建立了一个分析经济增长与失业关系的框架.在该框架中,经济增长存在着加重失业的"创造性破坏"效应和缓解失业的资本化效应.一些学者在此框架基础上讨论了劳动力市场不完全情况下经济增长与失业的关系以及就业政策对经济增长和失业相互关系的影响."创造性破坏"的框架,把技术进步作为切入点,为认识增长与失业的相互关系提供了一个全新的分析视角.