The failure of ‘nationalization by attraction’: Britain's cross‐class alliance against earnings‐related pensions in the 1950s1

In 1957, the Labour Party published radical proposals for a state earnings‐related pension scheme (‘national superannuation’) whose funds were to be invested in stock markets to generate high returns, and to help modernize and dynamize the British economy. This article explores a sophisticated campaign against the proposal by the insurance industry, and the resistance of the unions. In doing so, it considers the implications of this cross‐class alliance, not least in terms of a possible missed opportunity to build a ‘developmental state’ in the UK, but also in terms of the country's increasingly inadequate and inequitable system of pension provision.     

农村社会养老保险收入再分配模型及实证分析——基于新农保的实践

2009年,我国农村社会养老保险在老农保基础上进行了制度创新,在坚持个人账户的同时,引入财政直接补贴的基础养老金制度,形成新农保制度框架,经试点后于2014年2月推广为城乡统一的居民社会养老保险制度。发端于新农保的居民社会养老保险改革具有更强的收入再分配特点,促进了社会公平。文章基于新农保实践,构建净收益收入再分配模型,通过实证分析测算代际内部、代际之间和城乡之间养老金收入再分配效果。     

‘Stop‐go’ policy and the restriction of postwar British house‐building

From the mid‐1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and the Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house‐building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop‐go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house‐building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well‐publicized policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This article outlines the evolution of house‐building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house‐building during this period—historically and relative to other countries—and undertake time‐series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house‐building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop‐go policy, Britain's housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

降低养老保险缴费率：“一举两得”抑或“得不偿失”？——基于缴费遵从度与基金可持续的视角

2019年以来我国实施一系列"减税降费"政策以激发市场主体活力，例如城镇职工基本养老保险政策缴费率由28%降至24%，下调养老保险政策缴费率能提高缴费遵从度吗？养老保险基金可持续性又将发生何种变化？文章基于2002-2019年省级面板数据，运用计量模型和精算模型得到如下结果：（1）当养老保险政策缴费率每降低1个百分点，缴费遵从度会上升3.117个百分点；（2）如果养老保险政策缴费率仍为28%，基金分别于2021年和2026年开始出现当期赤字和累计赤字，2030年和2050年累计赤字规模分别为13.89万亿元和280.36万亿元；（3）若养老保险政策缴费率下调4个百分点，缴费遵从度上升12.468个百分点，养老保险基金开始出现累计赤字时点向后推迟1年至2027年，2030年和2050年累计赤字规模分别减少29.67%和8.14%；上述结论均通过稳健性检验和敏感性测试。综上所述，降低养老保险政策缴费率既能提高缴费遵从度，又能促进养老保险基金可持续运行，是一项"一举两得"的政策。     

Financing Medical Care through Insurance: Policy Lessons from Household‐ and Community‐Level Analysis in Kenya

Medical insurance is an important feature of a health care system in which patients pay user charges to get medical treatment. Without insurance, many people would not afford acceptable care in a fee‐for‐service system. Since health is a merit good, making insurance broadly available in communities is a major policy issue in countries where user fees finance medical treatments. The paper analyses data from facility and household surveys in Kenya and shows that policies which popularize medical insurance can be inefficient because there exist community and household level factors that inhibit its use. The results further reveal substantial variations in the way the variables that influence the use of insurance affect different population sub‐groups. In this regard, it is important to ensure that vulnerable groups in communities are not excluded from insurance schemes in which they invest. The policy value of the paper is to call attention to factors such as place of residence, gender, income, education, community institutions, transaction costs and facility quality – that hinder or facilitate use of medical insurance so that these factors can be considered when institutionalizing insurance in communities. We note that using the community as a unit of analysis in field surveys may strengthen policy conclusions usually obtained from such surveys. L’assurance médicale constitue un élément important de tout système de soins de santé dans lequel les patients paient pour obtenir des soins médicaux. Sans assurance, de nombreuses personnes seraient dans l’incapacié de faire face aux coûts d’un système de paiement à l’acte. La santéétant un bien tutélaire, généraliser l’accès à l’assurance au sein des communautés est une question politique majeure dans les pays où les soins médicaux sont financés par les utilisateurs. S’appuyant sur l’analyse des données d’enquêtes dans les institutions sanitaires et auprès des ménages kenyans, l’article montre que les politiques qui visent à généraliser l’assurance médicale peuventêtre inefficaces parce que certains facteurs aux niveaux des communautés et des ménages en inhibent l’utilisation. Il révèle également de fortes disparités dans la faµon dont les variables qui influencent l’utilisation de l’assurance affectent différentes sous‐sections de la population. A cet égard, il est important de veiller à ce que les groupes vulnérables ne soient pas exclus des plans d’assurance dans lesquels les communautés investissent. S’agissant des politiques à mettre en oeuvre, l’intérêt de cet article est qu’il attire l’attention sur des facteurs tels que le lieu de résidence, le genre, le revenu, l’éducation, les institutions communautaires, les coûts de transaction et la qualité des infrastructures, lesquels entravent ou facilitent l’utilisation de l’assurance médicale, et pourraient être pris en compte lorsque l’on institutionnalise l’assurance dans les communautés. Il est à noter qu’utiliser la communauté comme unité d’analyse des enquêtes de terrain peut renforcer les conclusions qu’engendrent généralement ce type d’enquêtes.     

关于我国基本养老金支付能力影响因素的探讨

我国基本养老保险制度要可持续发展,必须要有充足的支付能力。本文从人口老龄化、历史债务、统筹层次、制度设计、基金筹集、待遇调整机制等十个方面对我国基本养老金支付能力的影响因素进行专门具体探讨,并结合实际进行相应分析。     

Stochastic Generational Accounting Applied to Reforms of Dutch Occupational Pensions

This paper examines stochastic or ‘value based’ generational accounting as a method to assess the intergenerational redistributive impact of pension reform. The analysis is applied to three policy changes to the regulation of Dutch occupational pensions during the years 2012 and 2013 that mark the transition from defined benefit pensions to ‘defined ambition’ pension schemes.     

Business Ties and Information Advantage: Evidence from Mutual Fund Trading

This article examines whether ties to portfolio firms’ management via pension business relationships provide mutual funds with an informational advantage. Funds become related to portfolio companies when fund families serve as trustees for firms’ employee pension plans. Selling by related funds is more likely to be motivated by an information advantage than their buying, because the latter is heavily influenced by the desire to secure pension inflows. We find that stocks with larger net sales by related funds experience lower future returns. Information appears related to firm fundamentals, as the return predictability of related funds’ selling concentrates in stocks with negative future earnings surprises. Consistent with an information‐based explanation, the predictive power of related funds’ selling for future returns is more pronounced when information uncertainty about the stock is higher. Our results contribute to a growing literature that shows the sources of informed trading by institutions.     

The compulsory public pension and the demand for life insurance: the case of Sweden, 1884–1914

We employ cost‐of‐living surveys, business archives, and firm data to examine the impact of the compulsory pension on the demand for life insurance in Sweden from 1884 to 1914—a period that covers the implementation of the first public compulsory old‐age pension reform and the take‐off of industry life insurance. As predicted on the basis of the contemporary literature on crowding‐out effects, we find that the compulsory pension reduced the demand for life insurance. Our panel‐data analysis of lapse rates on insurance policies shows a significant crowding‐out effect of pension payments. We conclude that the introduction of the general compulsory pension had a crowding‐out effect on households’ holdings of insurance policies.     

Maintaining incomes after work: do compulsory earnings-related pensions make sense?

Most of the recent debate about pension reform has focused onthe extent to which benefits should be provided publicly, throughearnings-related social insurance, or privately, via compulsorysaving. Little attention has been paid to the more importantissue of whether there is a rationale for any form of compulsoryearnings-related pension provision. This article examines threemain rationales for this form of pensioning: moral hazard, myopia/paternalism,and willingness to pay. It concludes that, though the last ofthese may provide a political explanation for why earnings-relatedsocial-insurance schemes were first introduced, it is difficultto find an economic rationale for why such provision shouldbe continued. Nor are there convincing arguments for replacingearnings-related social insurance with compulsory saving. Hence,the pension reform debate should focus less on the way schemesare financed and more on the most appropriate shape for compulsorypension benefits.     

美国人何以养老——美国养老保险体系与可持续研究

美国的养老保险体系是由国家通过税收筹资的基本养老基金、企业建立的以401(k)计划和个人退休帐户(IRAs)为主的职业养老金计划以及相当完善的商业养老保险共同构成的三支柱式养老保险体系。通过具体分析美国国家基本养老和企业职业养老基金的构成、收入来源、支出水平以及可持续能力,说明美国养老保险体系是一个制度完善、可持续能力较强的养老保险范例,值得我国借鉴。     

住房反向抵押担保贷款特设机构的风险及其防范

住房反向抵押担保贷款业务对拓宽养老资金筹资渠道,完善养老保险体制,活跃住房市场有重要意义。银行、保险公司作为开展此项业务的特设机构经验不足使风险巨大。本文剖析了特设机构面临的基本风险及其相应的防范措施。     

新疆生产建设兵团养老保险运行机制分析

新疆建设兵团在20世纪50-60年代建立了养老保险制度。兵团的养老保险制度在维护团场职工权益、维持兵团稳定和发展等方面发挥了难以替代的作用。随着市场经济的深入发展,兵团养老保险受到一系列因素的制约,难以良性运行。文章全面描述了新疆生产建设兵团养老保险的制度构架和运行状况,尤其分析了老龄化和养老金支付能力弱等问题给兵团养老保险健康发展带来的不利影响。文章在此基础上提出促进兵团养老保险制度平稳运行的意见和建议。     

新型农村社会养老保险存在的问题及其对策

新型农村社会养老保险试点中还存在部分人户分离人群难以参加新农保,个人缴费标准和基础养老金设计缺乏调整机制,政府财政补贴低,补贴机制不完善,已年满60周岁、未参保的农村户籍老年人领取基础养老金存在困难及新型农村社会养老保险与其他养老保障的配套衔接政策制度缺失的问题。文章认为,应该尽快建立统一的城乡居民社会养老保险制度;完善缴费、政府补贴机制;规范集体、其他组织、个人对参保人补助和资助行为;尽快制定全国统一的新农保与其他社会群体养老保险制度衔接办法;加大宣传力度,增强农村居民参保意识。     

The occupational pillar of the South African pension system

In a study on pension reform, the World Bank recommended a multi‐pillar pension system to provide for pension needs. The South African pension system rests on three pillars: an occupational pillar, a voluntary saving pillar, and a redistributional pillar. The main focus of this article is on the first pillar. South Africa has a well‐developed occupational pension system, but several problem areas remain, such as limited coverage, lack of competition between funds, and the taxation of funds. To improve the occupational pension pillar it is recommended that licences should be made available to private pension fund administrators (PPFAs) to launch new open pension funds, as was done in Chile. Such PPFAs could extend coverage, promote competition between funds, and also cater for the specific needs of lower‐income individuals. If PPFAs do not perform satisfactorily, their licences may be withdrawn and made available to new bidders.     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

基本养老金市场化投资的理论依据与风险控制

文章从养老金投资与资本市场互动的视角,以全国社会保障基金和资本市场发展数据为样本,通过格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,研究养老金投资与资本市场发展两者之间的互动关系,为我国基本养老金能否进行入市投资寻求证据支撑,实证表明全国社保基金的投资是我国资本市场发展的重要原因,结果支持我国基本养老金进行市场化投资。同时,运用资产组合原理,模拟成熟市场中的风险环境,通过测算得出,我国基本养老金入市投资承受与美国养老金投资相当的风险,其资产组合中股票配置的比例应控制在30%以内。     

退休年龄与养老保险基金危机——基于养老保险基金收支影响因素的视角

退休制度和养老限险制度都是为了保障劳动者晚年生活而制定的，然而养老保险危机在多个国家出现并产生重大破坏，引起全球范围内的养老保险制度改革。退休年龄的改变往往是改革的重要内容。文章分别对现收现付制和完全积累制的养老保险基金进行了因素分析．肯定了提高退休年龄通过降低赡养率和被动率，分剐可以改善现收现付制和完全积累制养老保险基金的收支状况，缓解养老保险危机。但是否实行提高退休年龄的政策，还要对社会、经济因素进行奎面考虑。     

城镇化中的社会保障制度建设：来自拉美国家的教训

拉美国家在历史上出现过经济高速增长和快速城市化的阶段,但是经济增长并没有解决贫困现象和缩小收入差距,出现了“增长性贫困”现象,而收入悬殊限制了经济的进一步增长。社保制度存在缺陷是导致拉美国家增长性贫困的主要原因之一：社保制度严重滞后于城市化进程,住房和就业困难,非正式就业较为普遍;养老保险计划的覆盖面较低,收入再分配难以进行;养老金管理成本居高不下,导致养老保险扩面难;社会保险与社会救助的比重失调,中产阶级成为社会保障制度的最大受益者;社保和教育机会的缺失,造成代际贫困的恶性循环。拉美国家这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

Performance Persistence of Dutch Pension Funds

This paper studies the investment performance of pension funds with a focus on their ability in implementing their intended investment strategy. We use a sample of Dutch industry-wide pension funds, which are obliged by law to report their investment performance according to the so-called z-score. The z-score is a risk-adjusted performance measure with benchmark settings predefined by Dutch law. We find that pension funds as a group cannot beat their self-selected benchmarks consistently. Applying a cross-sectional portfolio approach we find evidence that the largest pension funds outperform the smallest funds.