Consumption multipliers of different types of public spending: a structural vector error correction analysis for the UK

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis is based on the estimation of a structural vector error correction model with quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1–2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative but barely significant effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the public spending breaking down, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure.     

Decentralization and sectoral expenditures in Europe

This article presents an empirical analysis of the recent impact of fiscal decentralization in Europe on total expenditure for specific government functions as well as on total government size. A panel data set for the years 2000–2009 for European countries has been constructed from EUROSTAT data. The effects of decentralization interact with the degree of vertical imbalances and tend to be negative as predicted by the Leviathan view of government. Effects vary strongly across government functions and are strongest in relative terms for social spending and infrastructure. Moderate restraining effects are found for education, while health spending is not significantly affected. This is consistent with competition between subnational entities, which try to attract taxpayers and shift expenses away from policies that benefit neighbouring jurisdictions.     

政府规模与宏观经济稳定性 ——来自新兴市场经济的证据和RBC模型的分析

本文研究的核心是政府支出和收入规模对于宏观经济稳定性的影响。对新兴市场国家的实证分析表明,政府消费规模对产出具有非稳定效应,一般性政府支出规模和产出波动率的负向关系可能并不存在。本文首先构建了包含累进型税收机制和需求扰动型政府支出的实际经济周期模型（RBC）,模型拟合出政府支出规模的非稳定效应和税收的稳定效应。当将政府支出视为生产性支出后,支出规模的稳定效应体现出来,虽然在规模进一步扩大后稳定效应会消失。     

民生支出的公平正义性分析——基于浙江各县教育和卫生支出的分析

文章基于1997～2008年浙江省教育支出和卫生支出的受益归宿分析表明,民生支出的最大受益者为人均收入最高地区居民,最大受损者为人均收入次低地区居民,民生支出具有累进性,距离公平正义的政策初衷仍有一定差距。但是,如果考虑不同收入组别生活成本、支出需求的差异,民生支出的公平程度将有所提高。通过建立因素法转移支付制度,提高民生支出比重,可以进一步提高民生支出的公平正义水平。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality

Using detailed micro-level income and expenditure data, we study the effects of monetary and government spending policy shocks on income and expenditure inequality in the US from 1990 to 2018. We find that expansionary monetary and government spending policy shocks systematically decrease income, disposable income and expenditure inequality. There is evidence of time variation on the effects and monetary policy and transfer payment shocks. Various impulse responses suggest that the impacts of the policy shocks increase during and after the Great Recession. The responses of income and expenditures of households at different percentiles suggest that expansionary monetary and government spending policy have a larger positive impact on households with low income and expenditures relative to those at the top of the distribution. We do not find evidence of the significant impact of Quantitative Easing policies on income inequality, however, expenditure inequality appear to increase due to the policies.     

公共支出结构对收入不均等影响研究——基于公共服务均等化视角分析

收入不均等影响到社会公平与经济发展,而收入公平分配是政府的主要责任,也是政府公共支出的依据之一.影响收入分配不均等的因素有很多,其中由于政府相应责任缺位,公共支出结构偏向,使得公共支出中基本公共服务支出不足是其主要原因.本文实证分析得出公共支出总量与结构严重影响基本公共服务供给,进而影响着收入不均等的水平,成为社会公平和稳定的重要因素.政府应从制度上进行公共支出改革,规范督促地方政府优化公共支出结构,不断提高对民生支出的主动性,逐步缩小基本公共服务的差距,缩小收入不均等的水平.     

Intergovernmental transfers and procyclical public spending

This paper tests the predictions that (i) sub-central government expenditures are procyclical and (ii) sub-central government expenditures are likely to be more procyclical than central government spending. The predictions are based on the importance of ‘voracity effects’ and on the proposition that they are systematically more pervasive if spending is financed by intergovernmental transfers. Evidence from 23 OECD countries between 1995 and 2006 indicates that sub-central government spending is more procyclical than central government expenditure.     

Optimal military spending in the US: A time series analysis

This paper extends previous work on the optimal size of government spending by including nested functional decompositions of military spending into consumption and investment. Post World War II US data are then used to estimate nested non-linear growth models using semi-parametric methods. As expected, investments in military and non-military expenditure are both found to be productive expenditures with respect to the private production. Moreover there is little evidence to suggest that current military spending is having a negative impact on economic growth in the US, while civilian consumption only tends to have only a weak impact. This does not imply that society will necessarily benefit from a reallocation of more spending to the military sector, nor that it is the best way to achieve economic growth.     

Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia

This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smoothens business cycle fluctuations. It estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. In South Asia, tax revenue increases less than one to one with changes in gross domestic product (GDP), but public spending increases more than proportionally. For each percentage point change in GDP growth, government expenditure changes by 1.3 percentage points. While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on economic activity, the government spending multiplier is positive and significant: each additional US dollar (USD) of spending leads to an immediate increase in GDP of 0.2 USD and to an increase of 0.4 USD in the medium run. The impact of public spending on economic activity is entirely due to capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical. Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies boom‐and‐bust cycles. These results are in line with those of other emerging markets and developing economies and robust to different model specifications and estimation strategies.     

政府支出对居民消费的影响——对Barro-Ricardo等价之谜的中国经验分析

本文基于居民消费跨期最优化分析框架,从理论及实证角度分析了政府支出对居民消费的影响。理论研究表明,政府支出对居民消费的影响主要取决于消费者相对风险规避系数及私人消费支出与政府支出之间的相关系数。并以中国为例,在李嘉图等价框架下从经验角度考察了中国政府支出对居民消费的影响。短期内,李嘉图等价不成立,政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系,即政府支出增加将导致居民消费增加。尤其需要注意的是,与通过征税来增加政府支出相比,通过发行国债增加政府支出对总需求的扩张效应更大,积极的财政政策在我国是有效的。但在长期中,政府支出将完全挤占居民消费支出,因而支出政策不宜用于实现政府的长期经济目标。     

财政支出与经济发展关系*——对瓦格纳法则的新解释

财政支出规模和结构反映了一个政府为实现其职能所进行的活动范围和公共政策的倾向。研究财政支出最重要的理论之一就是瓦格纳法则。本文使用2011年GFS和WDI数据库的截面数据,从政府财政支出总额及其构成验证了瓦格纳法则的成立,并通过国际比较,为优化我国财政支出结构提供建议。根据以往文献对瓦格纳法则的定义,笔者把政府财政支出占GDP比重对人均GDP（对数值）回归得到估计系数,称为瓦格纳法则系数,据此考察瓦格纳法则。回归结果显示,财政总支出的瓦格纳法则系数为371。这表明经济发展与财政总支出规模之间存在显著的正相关关系。换言之,财政总支出占GDP比重随着经济发展有上升的趋势。分项财政支出占GDP比重对人均GDP对数值的回归结果显示,人均GDP与医疗保健支出、教育支出和社会保护支出之间成正比关系,但与公共秩序和安全、住房和社区设施支出之间成反比。在此基础上,笔者计算了各分项财政支出对瓦格纳法则系数的贡献度,其中以社会保护支出的贡献度最大（7166%）,经济事务支出贡献度最低（-738%）。研究表明,瓦格纳法则成立的主要原因是社会保护支出与经济发展之间的正向关系。     

Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea

Local governments tend to show strategic behaviours when making their spending decisions. However, few studies have examined strategic behaviours when promoting fiscal decentralization. Thus, this study empirically examines the presence of strategic interactions in expenditure decisions in South Korea as well as how fiscal decentralization affects those interactions, using a panel data set from 2010 to 2017. The results demonstrate that a local government mimics other governments' spending when those governments' residents share similar age demographics. Moreover, local governments in South Korea engage in strategic interactions as their expenditure side becomes more decentralized. However, local governments tend to demonstrate less isomorphic behaviour in welfare spending decisions when they have higher revenue decentralization. This is because local governments have no motive to emulate other welfare policies, as the central government delegates the provision of social services to local governments by providing grants with strings attached.     

关于公共支出与经济增长的国内外研究综述

公共支出与经济增长的关系一直以来为经济学家们所争论。持公共支出促进经济增长观点认为,政府公共支出在经济增长中发挥着重要作用,因为它为经济发展提供了大量的公共品和其他具有外部效应的公共福利或服务,从而鼓励和便利了私人投资,形成了一个较好的投资环境,促进了经济增长。而持反对意见的认为,公共支出往往是生产率较低的,为融通政府支出而形成的高税收又会对私人部门的消费和投资造成很大的负面影响,因此,必须缩减政府支出,才能保证经济增长。当然也有人持两者根本就没有关系的观点。     

Public finance,government spending and economic growth: the case of local governments in Brazil

The impact of local government spending on output growth is estimated using a panel of Brazilian municipalities during 1985–1994. Attention is focused on three expenditure categories, housing/urbanization, health/sanitation, and transport services, which are expected to be growth-enhancing, and their sources of finance (local taxes, intergovernmental transfers, and borrowing). The determinants of these spending categories are also examined. The size of the municipality, measured by the resident population, is shown to affect government spending nonlinearly. This is a contribution to the recent empirical literature on the linkages between decentralized government spending, public finances, and economic growth at the local, rather than national, level.     

Bond financed fiscal policy and the problem of instrument instability

Previous analyses of bond financed government expenditure policies have indicated stability problems but have considered only a once-for-all and sustained increase in government spending. In this paper we examine the bond financing of temporary government expenditure changes, which form part of an ongoing policy designed to “balance the budget over the business cycle.” We find that an endogenous fiscal policy can keep national output near its target value but that the effects on the national debt and the size of the public sector are likely not to be transitory. There is a strong tendency toward instrument instability, in that control of the economy forces the level of government spending to forever diverge from its equilibrium value.     

内生经济增长理论与反贫困——基于“丝路明珠”和田地区的贫困问题研究

本文运用内生经济增长理论,探讨政府有关人力资本和基础设施的投资对贫困人口发生率的影响程度.利用1995～2004年之间和田地区各县的面板数据,建立多元线性回归模型,评价不同类型政府投入的效果.分析表明,政府提高人力资本的投资,如在公共医疗、信息化、教育和基础设施建设方面的投入对推动地区经济增长,打破贫困与环境之间的恶性循环,减少贫困人口数量效果显著.     

Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Multisector Model: The Price Consequences of Government Spending

This paper investigates optimal fiscal policy in a static multisector model. A Ramsey type planner chooses tax rates on each good type as well as spending levels on each good type subject to an exogenous total expenditure constraint. It is shown that, like taxes, government spending policy has price effects and that these price effects have significant implications for optimal policy. These price effects imply a U shape to the government's objective function and this U shape results in boundary values for the choice of the spending allocation. In particular, it is shown that the optimal allocation of government spending tends to be concentrated on one good rather than spread among many goods.     

我国政府支出和公共投资对私人投资的效应分析

首先采用Diamond模型对公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资影响进行理论分析;然后利用1980~2005年间的数据,运用协整检验、单方程误差修正模型分析了我国政府支出和公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资的长短期效应;经验结果表明无论从长期还是短期看政府支出挤出了私人投资而公共投资则挤入了私人投资,国防支出和行政管理支出在长期和短期都挤出了私人投资,社会文教支出长期挤入了私人投资,短期挤出了私人投资。