The demand for judicial sanctions: voter information and the election of judges

We examine 20 partisan judicial elections over an 8-year period to determine whether judge specific information shows in election results. We find demand for judicial sanctions looks much like other voting processes. Among voters, Democratic incumbent judges, who tend to be lenient, are rewarded for being harsh, while Republican incumbent judges, who generally are harsh, are rewarded for being lenient. Voters are not found to be a random sample of the population, and we find that straight ticket votes obscure information from selective voters. This paper benefitted from comments received by participants at the Public Choice Meetings, and from useful comments from Aimee Chin, Janet Kohlhase, an anonymous referee and the editor.     

Using neural network to forecast stock index option price: a new hybrid GARCH approach

This study aims to apply a new hybrid approach to estimate volatility in neural network option-pricing model. The analytical results also indicate that the new hybrid method can be used to forecast the prices of derivative securities. Owing to combines the grey forecasting model with the GARCH to improve the estimated ability, the empirical evidence shows that the new hybrid GARCH model outperforms the other approaches in the neural network option-pricing model.     

The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting

This paper presents a new univariate forecasting method. The method is based on the concept of modifying the local curvature of the time-series through a coefficient ‘Theta’ (the Greek letter θ), that is applied directly to the second differences of the data. The resulting series that are created maintain the mean and the slope of the original data but not their curvatures. These new time series are named Theta-lines. Their primary qualitative characteristic is the improvement of the approximation of the long-term behavior of the data or the augmentation of the short-term features, depending on the value of the Theta coefficient. The proposed method decomposes the original time series into two or more different Theta-lines. These are extrapolated separately and the subsequent forecasts are combined. The simple combination of two Theta-lines, the Theta=0 (straight line) and Theta=2 (double local curves) was adopted in order to produce forecasts for the 3003 series of the M3 competition. The method performed well, particularly for monthly series and for microeconomic data.     

An unobserved component model for multi-rate forecasting of telephone call demand: the design of a forecasting support system

An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ^® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.     

Evaluating the success in international sourcing of information technology projects: The need for a relational client‐vendor approach

This article investigates the differences across and the need to consider both the client and vendor perspective in evaluating international sourcing (offshoring) success and highlights the need for incorporating relational factors into the success assessment rather than focusing solely on financial or operational outcomes (e.g., projects delivered on time, within budgeted costs). We take an expanded view of project success (using relational/process dimensions) and provide insight into how client and vendor firms evaluate success differently across relational dimensions and how relational factors play a key role in achieving success. Based on the findings, propositions are presented to guide future offshoring success research.