Textiles and Clothing in a New Round of Trade Negotiations

Because developing countries generally have a comparative advantagein the production of labor-intensive textiles and clothing,the liberalization of trade in these products is critical totheir prospects for increasing foreign exchange earnings. Thenew round of trade negotiations is likely to be less importantfor trade in textiles and clothing, however, than were the recentrenegotiations of the fourth Multifibre Arrangement (MFA). Asthe MFA remains in effect until July 1991, this limits the rangeof measures which can be altered in the interim. Nonetheless,textile trade will influence the process and outcome of thecurrent negotiations because of the overlap of textile tradedisputes with other broader trade issues. These include tariffs,the rollback of tariffs and quotas, voluntary export restraints,and other nontariff barriers, all of which have been appliedto textiles trade at various times. Each of these measures hasan influence on trade flows and a cost to both the importingand exporting countries. Any proponents of liberalization oftrade in textiles and clothing must not only be familiar withthese costs but also must be knowledgeable about the economicand political forces which have initiated and sustained theprotective measures. The following discussion suggests thatthere are groups and transitional approaches which may favorsome progress in textile trade liberalization in the currentround of negotiations.     

WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES FROM VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINTS?:The Case of Footwear

Voluntary export restraints have been a popular resort of industrialcountries faced with increasing competition from exports ofdeveloping countries. As a strategy for circumventing the rulesof the GATT (whose regulations preclude increases in tariffs),these nontariff barriers have been rather successful; whetherthey have been as successful in their aim of protecting andstimulating the industry concerned is another matter. This article looks at what happened when industrial countriesimposed—and then removed—voluntary export restraintson the footwear industry during the 1970s and 1980s. Why didprotectionism spread so fast and then dissipate almost as rapidly,and what effects did this coming and going have on the exportingcountries We suggest that industrial countries removed the restraintsbecause they found ?them either superfluous (the expected employmenteffect failed to materialize) or ineffective (the principalexporters maintained their market share during the height ofthe restrictions), or else because the industry was able toadjust by importing footwear at a profit. Predicting the effect of VERs, and determining how best to managethem, are critical questions for developing countries strugglingto improve their export performance in the 1990s. The resultsof detailed study of a representative industry, summarized here,may assist in the prediction and determination.      

DUMPING AND ANTIDUMPING: THE RHETORIC AND THE REALITY OF PROTECTION IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

A wide gap separates the rhetoric from the reality of protectionin industrial countries. Antidumping is the current realityof that protection. Protectionist interests stretch the definitionof dumping as far as they may to shelter actions against importsunder the antidumping umbrella. This article is about antidumping, in particular about the historyof antidumping regulation and its evolution under the GATT systeminto a major instrument of protection. The thesis is straightforward:antidumping is the fox put in charge of the henhouse—ordinaryprotection with a good public relations program. There is littlein its history to suggest that the scope of antidumping wasever more particular than protecting home producers from importcompetition, and there is much to suggest that such protectionwas its intended scope. The article has three sections. The first looks into the originsof antidumping regulation, the second examines contemporaryregulation (antidumping under the GATT), and the third summarizesthe significance of the first two.      

The Trade Restrictiveness of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement

This study uses the trade restrictiveness index (TRI) of Andersonand Neary (1990) to evaluate U.S. policy toward seven majorexporters of textiles and apparel under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement(MFA). The period covered is 1982–88. The MFA controlsthe shipment of most textile and apparel items to the UnitedStates through a system of bilaterally negotiated export quotasthat allow for annual growth. The arrangement itself was renegotiatedin 1986, with an expansion in the number of items covered andcountries included. In addition to these policy changes, changesin economic conditions during the data period altered the restrictivenessof the MFA. The TRI in principle permits all these influencesto be accounted for in a consistent manner. The TRI resultsare contrasted with the standard trade-weighted average tariffequivalent of the quotas. The correlation of the two measuresis not significantly different from zero.     

WTO/TBT框架下纺织品与服装护理标签壁垒应对的法律对策

通过立法规范纺织品与服装护理标签,是发达国家保护国际贸易的重要手段之一,也是 WTO/TBT 协议的基本要求。其重要性自不待言。但反观我国,在这一方面问题颇多。通过对 WTO/TBT 协议有关内容的简要解读,以及中外纺织品与服装护理标签制定的比较,就如何应对国外纺织品与服装护理标签壁垒提出自己的思考和建议。     

THE IMPACT OF EC-92 ON TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

How is the attempt of the European Community (EC) to createa single market going to affect the developing countries? Thisarticle argues that the net direct effects of EC-92 may be rathersmall: the trade creation and trade diversion effects broughtabout by the program may cancel each other out, with few repercussionsfor the developing countries as a group. The expected changesin trade flows arising from relatively small changes in nominalprices and aggregate incomes, the changes in market structure,the removal of internal barriers, and a predicted 5 percentincrease in EC output may be important to European policymakers,but they are rather remote from the developing countries. The threat of EC-92 to the developing countries lies elsewhere:from diversion of investment from those countries to the ECand from the resurrection of protectionism by the EC, especiallyin the form of nontariff barriers, toward the outside world.      

A SURVEY OF THE COSTS OF WORLD SUGAR POLICIES

The world sugar market has long been characterized by volatileprices and widespread intervention. Controls on domestic prices,demand, and supply have created an inefficient pattern of worldproduction, consumption, and trade. Without government controls,production would shift from the countries with higher cost,subsidized production (especially the European Community, Japan,and the United States) to the countries with lower costs (suchas Australia, Brazil, and Thailand). The resources saved couldthen be directed to other activities. Sugar policies in countries with high costs reduce world sugarprices quite substantially in the long run and increase pricevariability significantly; production controls in countrieswith low costs increase world prices somewhat and also increasetheir variability. What would happen if all interventions ceased? Average worldsugar prices would probably— but not definitely—rise. World prices would definitely vary less, and economicconditions would definitely improve, especially in developingcountries that depend heavily on sugar exports. But the prospectsfor substantial reform of the sugar market are not promising,even though the GATT Uruguay Round continues. This article putsforward some modest proposals for changing the existing interventionsto lessen economic distortions and reduce costs.      

SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE POOR: Choices for Developing Countries

There is an urgent need to provide an effective safety net forthe poorest in societies ranging from socialist countries undergoingreform to Sub-Saharan African economies. This article examinessocial security systems in industrial countries and explorestheir relevance to developing countries. The objective of socialsecurity is defined broadly as public action, including thatby communities, to protect the poor and vulnerable from adversechanges in living standards. Relevant instruments include employmentand income guarantees, and also such formal policy instrumentsas assistance, social insurance, and family allowances. Thearticle highlights issues that arise in providing social securityin developing countries, particularly its effectiveness in protectingthe target groups.      

The "Cotton Problem"

Cotton is an important cash crop in many developing economies,supporting the livelihoods of millions of poor households. Insome countries it contributes as much as 40 percent of merchandiseexports and more than 5 percent of GDP. The global cotton market,however, has been subject to numerous policy interventions,to the detriment of nonsubsidized producers. This examinationof the global cotton market and trade policies reaches fourmain conclusions. First, rich cotton-producing countries shouldstop supporting their cotton sectors; as an interim step, transfersto the cotton sector should be fully decoupled from currentproduction decisions. Second, many cotton-producing (and oftencotton-dependent) developing economies need to complete theirunfinished reform agenda. Third, new technologies, especiallygenetically modified seed varieties, should be embraced by developingeconomies; this would entail extensive research to identifyvarieties appropriate to local growing conditions and the establishmentof the proper legislative and regulatory framework. Finally,cotton promotion is needed to reverse or at least arrest cotton’sdecline as a share of total fiber consumption.      

THE ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION: A PRIMER FOR DEVELOPMENT ECONOMISTS

As developing countries become major consumers of the globalsupply of commercial energy, it is essential to understand thedeterminants of future energy prices. At the same time, manydeveloping countries are relying on exports of their own naturalresources—tropical hardwoods, oil, tin, gold, and otherminerals—to generate badly needed foreign exchange. Governmentpolicies influence how much of a resource is extracted todayand how much is saved for the future. Flawed policies needlesslywaste precious national wealth.      

Differential and More Favorable Treatment of Developing Countries and the International Trading System

This article argues that "differential and more favourable treatment"of developing countries in the General Agreement on Tariffsand Trade (GATT) has been a logical consequence of their owninward-looking policies and the GATT's implicit mercantilism,the latter implying that liberalization, being costly, shouldnot be demanded of relatively poor countries. Time has, however,reduced both the appeal of the protectionist model of developmentand the willingness of developed countries to accord differentialtreatment. The upshot has been pressure on more advanced developingcountries to "graduate" and a growing literature recommendingfuller and more equal participation of developing countriesin the GATT. The case for fuller and more equal participationis not self-evident. It needs to be assessed on its merits interms of the prospects for improved market access abroad andmore efficient policy at home. The analysis indicates that thepotential benefits should not be oversold. On balance, however,the most advanced developing countries would probably gain fromactive and more equal participation in both GATT and the multilateraltrade negotiations while the remaining developing countrieswould benefit from graduation by the more advanced.     

Timing and Duration of Exposure in Evaluations of Social Programs

Impact evaluations aim to measure the outcomes that can be attributedto a specific policy or intervention. While there have beenexcellent reviews of the different methods for estimating impact,insufficient attention has been paid to questions related totiming: How long after a program has begun should it be evaluated?For how long should treatment groups be exposed to a programbefore they benefit from it? Are there time patterns in a program'simpact? This paper examines the evaluation issues related totiming, and discusses the sources of variation in the durationof exposure within programs and their implications for impactestimates. It reviews the evidence from careful evaluationsof programs (with a focus on developing countries) on the waysthat duration affects impacts.      

Why Most Developing Countries Should Not Try New Zealand's Reforms

During the past decade New Zealand has introduced far-reachingreforms in the structure and operation of government departmentsand agencies. This model has attracted interest in developingcountries because it promises significant gains in operationalefficiency. But developing countries, which are dominated byinformal markets, are risky candidates for applying the NewZealand model. The author suggests that basic reforms to strengthenrule-based government and pave the way for robust markets shouldbe undertaken first.      

EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES: The Economics of Enclave Manufacturing

Export processing zones (EPZS) are economics enclaves withinwhich manufacturing for export occurs under virtual free tradeconditions. Many developing countries have established EPZSin hopes of reaping economic gains through employment, foreignexchange earnings, and technology transfer. This article studiesthe benefits and costs of EPZS in Indonesia, the Republic ofKorea, Malaysia, and the Philippines and reviews the relationshipbetween the welfare effects of EPZS and the host country's economicpolicies. When the domestic economy is distorted, the EPZ conferslimited welfare gains. Nevertheless, EPZS are far from the "enginesof development" that some countries had initially hoped theywould become.      

The Role of Long-Term Finance: Theory and Evidence

Improving the supply of long-term credit to industrial firmsis considered a priority for growth in developing countries.A World Bank multicountry study looks at whether a long-termcredit shortage exists and, if so, whether it has had an impacton investment, productivity, and growth. The study finds thateven after controlling for the characteristics of individualfirms,businesses in developing countries use significantly less long-termdebt than their counterparts in industrial countries. Researchersare able to explain the difference in debt composition betweenindustrial and developing countries by firm characteristics;by macroeconomic factors; and, most importantly, by financialdevelopment, government subsidies, and legal and institutionalfactors. The analysis concludes that long-term finance tends to be associatedwith higher productivity. An active stock market and an abilityto enter into long-term contracts also allow firms to grow atfaster rates than they could attain by relying on internal sourcesof funads and short-term credit alone. Importantly, althoughgovernment-subsidized credit markets have increased the long-termindebtedness of firms, there is no evidence that these subsidiesare associated with the ability of firms to grow faster. Indeed,in some cases subsidies are associated with lower productivity.      

SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE: Theory, Evidence, and Policy

Recently a number of commentators have argued that trade policyin developing countries should be deployed discriminatorilyto encourage the expansion of trade among southern countries.Such a strategy is seen as being central in the framing of anew international economic order. This article evaluates thearguments in favor of a relative expansion of South-South tradeand reviews the experience of developing countries with discriminatoryregional trading arrangements. It contends that the case forspecific policies to promote South-South trade is not convincingand that experience with discriminatory arrangements is notencouraging. The expansion of South-South trade can be expectedto continue in the context of multilateral trade expansion,and the potential gains are likely to be greater if this processis allowed to evolve freely in a multilateral setting.      

Privatization and Corporate Governance: Principles, Evidence, and Future Challenges

Unless developing countries embrace a corporate governance perspective,privatization is unlikely to provide the benefits of improvedperformance with accountability. This article introduces theconcept of governance chains that can constrain the grabbinghands of public and private actors by providing informationand accountability mechanisms to help investors monitor managers.Empirical data on established firms from 49 countries provideestimates of the relative importance and strength of privateand formal chains of governance. The framework and empiricalbenchmarks help explain the outcomes of past privatizationsand suggest certain steps that governments can pursue to besure to get the most out of future privatization activity.      

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: A Review of Its Operation and Effects on Developing Countries

Policy changes in the European Community (EC)—the world'slargest importer and, since 1986, exporter of agricultural commodities—mayhave significant effects on world markets and developing countries.This article investigates the EC's Common Agricultural Policy(CAP), its history, mode of operation, and the prospects andpossibilities for change, to bring out the implications of thepolicy for developing country exporters and importers. The hypothesisthat evolves differs from that of many studies in proposingthat an agricultural liberalization in the EC is unlikely toeffect any great change in world market prices over the firstfew years. Developing countries' principal gain from a liberalizationof the CAP would derive from increased stability of world marketprices, improved access to export markets, and a reduction inthe uncertainty currently caused by discretionary measures inthe EC.      

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Trends, Causes, and Consequences

Throughout the twentieth century governments have been spendingever larger proportions of national income. Three issues arisein discussions about the growth of such spending as it pertainsto developing countries: How does it compare with expenditurein industrial nations? What explains the growth in spendingby developing country governments? And what are the effectson economic growth? Government expenditure as a share of GDPin low- and middle-income countries, on average, is lower thancomparable shares in industrial market economies and, with fewexceptions, is growing. Many factors, including ideology, demographics,a positive income elasticity for public goods, the rising costof public goods relative to private goods, and perhaps developmenttheory and practice, explain this growth. As for the relationshipbetween government expenditure and economic growth, the empiricalevidence does not reveal any strong correlation. The size ofgovernment may engender strong ideological debate, but the positionthat the aggregate level of government expenditure is a significantdeterminant of growth rates receives little support.      

SOME LESSONS FROM THE EAST ASIAN MIRACLE

The rapid economic growth of eight East Asian economies, oftencalled the "East Asian miracle, " raises two questions: Whatpolicies and other factors contributed to that growth? And canother developing countries replicate those policies to stimulateequally rapid growth? This article, based on case studies, econometric data, and economictheory, offers a list of the ingredients that contributed tothat success. But it is the combination of these ingredients,many of which involve government interventions acting together,that accounts for East Asia's success.