An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US

This paper follows a non‐linear ARDL error‐correction approach to examine the presence of the J‐curve in the commodity‐level trade between the United States and China. The analysis disaggregates the US–China trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan–US$ exchange rates. The analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the China–US trade balance. We find strong support for short‐run asymmetric effects in the case of two‐third of the commodities, whereas significant long‐run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one‐third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the China–US trade.     

珠江三角洲与加拿大经贸合作研究

中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,加拿大是世界七大工业强国之一.自1970年中国与加拿大两国建交以来,双边经贸合作关系不断得到发展,已从单一的商品贸易发展到全方位、跨领域、多元化的经济技术合作,商品、服务、人员和资本的流动日益频繁.目前,加拿大是中国第十大贸易伙伴,而中国已成为加拿大第三大贸易伙伴.中加经贸关系的发展对促进两国各自经济的整体进步起到了极大促进作用.     

如何防范敏感性商品在空运方式下的信用证风险

在一般贸易中,受某种特定因素的影响,使得某种普通商品由于供求关系发生变化变成敏感性商品。由于该类商品价格受特定的因素和供求关系变化的影响较大,价格极不稳定,容易给买卖双方带来较大利益和损失。本文正是从该类商品在一般贸易中的空运方式和信用证付款条件下,通过具体案例进行分析有哪些风险及其防范措施。     

Factors influencing price developments of commodities

Since developing countries are dependent to a large extent on the export of commodities, changes in commodity prices on world markets can have dramatic effects on living standards and on government budgets. The following paper examines the factors behind such changes and discusses the instruments which could be used to influence them.     

基于 DCC-GARCH的中国大宗商品 金融化研究

本文选取2005年1月4日至2016年9月30日农产品类、金属类和工业品类等中国和国际大宗商品期货市场交易品种,以及国内外主要股票市场指数的日收益率,基于DCC--GARCH模型分析了期货市场和股票市场的波动性溢出关系和动态相依性。结果发现,股票市场对中国商品期货有波动率溢出效应,但是不同类型的大宗商品其波动率溢出效应有明显差异。这说明:中国大宗商品市场存在金融化现象,但是不同类型的大宗商品金融化的程度不同,和国际大宗商品期货市场相比,中国市场的金融化程度总体偏低。     

初级产品出口关税的作用探析

长期以来,相对于其他商品而言,初级产品出口价格的不断下降给许多仍靠少数出口产品获取外贸收入的发展中国家带来了一系列的挑战,使其成为国际贸易中长期存在且备受关注的焦点之一。因此,许多发展中国家便采取课征初级产品出口税的政策以图解决其所面临的问题。本文在分析初级产品出口关税对出口国及其贸易伙伴的影响基础上,着重论述了采取出口税政策解决出口价格波动带来挑战的利弊,并在最后以一些实证研究的实例说明了这一政策实施效果的不确定性。     

The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of two of the principal causes of the commodity price boom in 1973-74: bad harvests and commodity speculation. The analysis uses a dynamic, fixprice-flexprice model in which exchange rates are flexible and commodities serve as both an asset and a consumption good. Commodity market disruptions of the magnitude that occurred in 1973-74 are shown to have significant effects on prices, exchange rates, trade flows, and capital flows — effects that persist long after the initial shock has passed. Asset markets, defined to include commodity markets, play a central role in transmitting these shocks throughout the world economy.     

Arbitrage,cointegration, and the joint dynamics of prices across discrete commodity futures auctions

Underlying the search for arbitrage opportunities across commodity futures markets that differ in market structure is the idea that the futures prices for similar commodities that are traded on different exchanges adjusted for differences in currency, delivery time (if any), location, and market structure are equal. This article examines price linkages in competing discrete commodity futures auction markets. We find no evidence of cointegration of futures prices of similar commodities traded on two contemporaneous discrete auction futures exchanges in Asia. We also find no evidence of arbitrage activities across these two Asian exchanges, though this does not preclude arbitrage activities with North American continuous auction markets. This lack of cointegration may be due to nonstationarities in the trading cost component. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 799–815, 1999     

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

This paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.     

An analysis of illiquidity in commodity markets

We examine the liquidity and insurance premia demanded by hedgers and speculators in commodity markets. We find that hedgers and speculators demand a higher premium for illiquid commodities for providing insurance and liquidity, respectively. Decomposing illiquidity into turnover and size components, we find evidence of a size premium associated with the insurance premium such that speculators demand a larger insurance premium for smaller commodities. We also find that the liquidity premium demanded by hedgers for illiquid commodities varies across bullish and bearish markets with hedgers demanding a larger premium from speculators trading in illiquid commodities in bearish markets.     

Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value of the U.S. dollar and the world business cycle—in particular, to the strength or weakness in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia. Despite concerns raised by some policymakers that increased commodity index investment (the financialization of commodities) has driven commodity price movements, numerous academic studies have concluded that index-based investing has not moved prices or exacerbated volatility in commodity markets in recent years. An examination of weekly and monthly net flows into commodity mutual funds reveals that these flows have little or no effect on the overall growth rate of commodity prices. In particular, weekly flows into commodity mutual funds do not lead to future commodity price changes. These results are consistent with academic papers that find little or no impact of commodity index investors on commodity prices in individual markets. The paper concludes by briefly discussing three key factors that illustrate why flows into commodity mutual funds cannot explain commodity price movements.     

Volatility term structures in commodity markets

In this study, we comprehensively examine the volatility term structures in commodity markets. We model state-dependent spillovers in principal components (PCs) of the volatility term structures of different commodities, as well as that of the equity market. We detect strong economic links and a substantial interconnectedness of the volatility term structures of commodities. Accounting for intra-commodity-market spillovers significantly improves out-of-sample forecasts of the components of the volatility term structure. Spillovers following macroeconomic news announcements account for a large proportion of this forecast power. There thus seems to be substantial information transmission between different commodity markets.     

Forecasting exchange rates with commodity prices—a global country analysis

This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We find that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables. This holds irrespective of whether the countries are net exporters or importers of commodities. However, the forecasting power was even better in the 1990s and seems to have decreased since that that time. Nevertheless, forecasts can even today be improved considerably by adding commodity prices.     

建立适应商品特性的流通方式

从商品流通角度看 ,商品结构可分为工业消费品、农副产品和生产资料 ,不同属性的商品具有不同的流通特点和不同的流通方式 ,不考虑商品的特性而套用一种流通方式是行不通的 ,应根据商品特性确定其合理的流通方式     

HETEROGENEOUS CAPITAL GOODS AND THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON EFFECT

This paper shows that in a world of ‘production of commodities by means of commodities’ there is not an unambiguous relation between the long‐period relative commodity prices and the sectoral total factor productivities. Consequently, the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect is not verified and/or makes no sense.     

Interdependencies between agricultural commodity futures prices on the LIFFE

Interdependencies between commodity prices can arise from the impact of changing macroeconomic variables, from complementarities or substitutabilities between commodities, or from common responses by speculators. Malliaris and Urrutia (1996) found significant linkages between rollover prices of six related agricultural commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade. This article examines interdependencies between futures prices for soft commodities traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), calculated using Clark indices. Results show that there are no interdependencies between any two prices; price discovery of one contract provides no information about others. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 269–280, 2002     

COVID-19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets using a copula-based network method. We document a significant increase in the lower and upper tail contagiousness of commodities following the COVID-19 outbreak. Contagion shows an obvious clustering characteristic, that is, there is higher tail risk connectedness between commodities in the same category. Agricultural commodities are significantly less contagious than metals and energy commodities; soft commodities in particular can offer investors significant diversification benefits. There are several hub commodities in the contagion network, chief among them copper, which are good transmitters of shocks and should be treated with caution by investors and regulators. Although tail risk and contagiousness of individual commodities increase together during the pandemic, we find a negative cross-sectional relationship between tail risk and contagiousness, that is, commodities with high tail risk are not necessarily highly contagious and may even be less so.     

服务商品与商业劳动价值创造

传统政治经济学认为 ,产业工人创造价值和剩余价值 ,商业工人实现价值和剩余价值。但在市场经济中 ,商品必须经过两级交换。一级交换是产业企业将产品交换给商业企业 ,使商品从生产领域跨入流通领域 ;产业企业得到产业工人创造的全部价值和剩余价值。二级交换是商业企业与消费者之间的交换 ,使商品从流通领域跨入消费领域 ,商业企业在实现产业企业的产品价值和剩余价值的同时 ,实现商业工人创造的价值和剩余价值。商业利润不是从产业工人创造的剩余价值中瓜分来的 ,而是商业工人创造的。     

Primary commodity prices and the real exchange rate: the case of Australia 1900–91

How do real exchange rates of primary commodity exporters react to changes in the relative price of these exports? The relationship between these variables is examined using ninety-two years of Australian data. There is a significant positive correlation. However, the Australian real exchange rate does not display the downward trend that has been observed in the relative price of primary commodities. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the apparent long-run decline in the relative price of primary commodities is an artefact of inadequate quality adjustment in the price series for manufactures.     

低碳经济背景下优化浙江省出口商品结构及对策

由于外部世界低碳经济的发展背景和内部由生产力发展水平决定的产业结构转型升级的现时状况,决定了浙江省在外部和内部合力的作用下势必需要走一条出口产业、出口商品低碳发展的道路,这是一条对传统出口商品结构进行调整、升级、优化的道路,即力求出口商品低碳、高技术、高附加值、提高第三产业产品出口比重的道路。为应对和预防进口贸易国对外国出口商品可实施碳足迹、碳标签、碳关税等新型贸易壁垒措施,浙江省应该借助省内产业结构转型升级的契机,在保持传统特色产品出口的基础上,采取积极引进和广泛应用节能、清洁、低碳技术,提高出口商品的技术含量和附加值,增加环保、绿色服务业产品的出口比重,促进出口商品结构不断优化。