Another case of profitable destabilizing speculation: A comment

This paper examines Williamson's example of destabilizing speculation using an explicit difference equation specification of speculative behavior. The type of nonconvergent cyclical movements of the exchange rate that Williamson describes are found to result from expectations based on a fixed notion of the ‘normal’ rate, together with a specific level of speculation activity. A lower level of speculation results in a divergent system; a higher level in one which is dynamically stable.     

The liquidity effects of foreign exchange intervention

This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in a two-country, two-currency, general equilibrium model that allows for liquidity effects. Both sterilized and non-sterilized intervention operations have significant impacts on the allocation of liquidity in international financial markets. Whether intervention is successful in moving the exchange rate in the desirable direction depends upon the degree of sterilization of intervention and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution of the consumption goods. The model shows that there exist circumstances in which the response of exchange rate to intervention is ‘perverse’ as documented in the empirical literature.     

外汇汇率的相关性及波动性研究

本文基于相关性分析和GARCH族模型,通过对2002年7月21日到2009年7月21日的美元、欧元和日元兑人民币的日汇率数据的实证研究,分析了我国汇率制度改革以后汇率市场的相关关系变化情况,然后运用GARCH类模型对美元、欧元和日元兑人民币的汇率波动性进行了对比研究,最后总结得出相关结论。     

The evolution of trading activity in Asian foreign exchange markets

We exploit previously unpublished data on foreign exchange turnover to analyse the institutional setting in which the currencies of non-Japan Asia are traded. Volumes grew rapidly between 2004 and 2007 and the diversity of market participants increased. Nevertheless, liquidity is undermined by foreign exchange controls. For Asian currencies other than JPY, HKD and SGD, non-residents account for a relatively small share of activity and FX swap markets are still in their infancy. Offshore non-deliverable markets have developed in response to controls, causing segmentation in trading activity. Furthermore, Herstatt risk remains high in Asian foreign exchange markets.     

浅析外贸企业出口收汇风险的防范

及时、安全和足额出口收汇既是外贸企业发展的重要保证，也是我国外经贸事业健康发展的重要标志。针对目前我国出口收汇中存在的较高欠款、坏账，作者提出了应加强对进口商资信调查研究，建立出口信用风险管理体制；选择合理的国际结算方式；通过国际保理业务；以及投保出口信用保险来降低和规避出口收汇风险，尽量减少坏账、欠款的发生，从而提高出口收汇质量。     

发展外汇衍生类产品业务问题的思考

大力发展外汇衍生类产品业务是我国商业银行和涉外企业的战略选择。外汇衍生类产品业务在我国仍处于发展的初级阶段，存在着很多亟待解决的问题，只有采取加快人才培养、加大监管力度、完善金融市场等措施，才能实现快速发展。     

Buyer behavior in business-to-business services: The case of foreign exchange

Empirical regularities in buying behavior observed in mostly consumer markets have been linked into a comprehensive model, the Dirichlet. No attempt has yet been made to see if this model applies to services in general or to business-to-business services in particular. In this paper, we examine the purchasing behavior of large multinational corporations from four countries who purchase foreign exchange contracts from the major banks. We highlight similarities to the patterns of buying behavior observed in consumer markets. Implications for the management of business-to-business services firms are discussed.     

Coordination of speculation

We extend the models of Krugman [Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11 (1979) 311] and Flood and Garber [Journal of International Economics, 17 (1984) 1] on balance of payments crises to a multi-country setting such that coordination among speculators is important for a focal point to emerge. The moment of successful coordination when the currency is devalued is shown to depend on initial beliefs, the degree of imperfect communication, the rate of domestic credit creation, and the number of countries that have overvalued currencies. Contagion arises naturally in our framework. Subsequent speculative attacks occur faster and faster and communication among speculators results in fluctuating stocks of reserves prior to the attack.     

A pure foreign exchange asset pricing model

If consumption tastes differ among countries, a position in foreign-denominated nominally riskless bonds is risky in real terms. Risk averse and rational consumer-investors facing such a situation would generally seek a diversified portfolio of foreign bonds. They would demand risk premia in accordance with portfolio (covariance) risk. A model is specified to portray this behavior and it is tested with data from eight countries. The results indicate that the actual premia earned in foreign risky positions are positively related on average to portfolio risk measures; but the premia deviate significantly from those predicted by the model.     

保税区外汇管理新法

新的《保税区外汇管理办法》已从10月1日起施行,它意味着国家已在着手理顺保税区政策。当前保税区发展的最大困扰是政策问题,包括政策不清、部门之间政策相互矛盾等。今年     

关于货币供给量、外汇储备与人民汇率关系的实证研究

本文利用我国2000-2009年的月度数据,讨论了我国短期内货币供给量、外汇储备和人民币兑美元汇率的相互关系.结果表明,长期内外汇储备的增加并不是导致人民币兑美元汇率升值的理由货币供给量与外汇储备不存在Granger因果关系.     

人民币汇率变动对北京市外贸影响的实证分析

本文通过收集2000-2009年北京市对世界主要国家和地区进出口情况、外贸出口国GDP、北京市GDP和北京市人均GDP四项国民经济指标资料,以及这段期间汇率变动情况,构建了北京市对重要贸易国家和地区的双边贸易引力模型.实证研究人民币汇率变动对北京市贸易进出口的影响,并提出了相应措施.