Dynamics and objectives of international trade

Standard international trade models universally consider maximizing the availability of inexpensive goods as the objective of international trade. They then go on to show that tariffs and other impediments to trade cause a loss of economic efficiency. Fewer goods are available in the trading nations because of the impediments. The common method of analysis is to use price / quantity curves and two-nation / two-product curves.

Here we show that international trade is far more complex. It is a vast network beyond our present ability to accurately model. It can, however, be structured as a linear program. As a linear program it has many of the characteristics of a network. The chief difference is that linear programs provide static analysis. The world trade network is dynamic. However, by structuring it as a linear program, many of the components of international trade omitted by price/ quantity and two-nation / two-product analysis can be incorporated.

An important part of any programming analysis is determination of the objective function. Several objective functions are examined, particularly with respect to employment impacts. A variable compensatory tax (VCT) is selected as a means of dealing with the dynamics and complexity of international trade. It has the potential to repatriate 6 million jobs, is simple to implement, precludes retaliation, and would bring U.S. trade into a permanent balance of ± 5%.     

Intra-industry trade and heterogeneity in pollution emission

This paper develops a model of intermediate goods firms heterogeneity with respect to a pollution parameter to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade on final good output, pollution and welfare. By focusing on intra-industry trade we consider trade between similar countries. We analyze both trade between developed countries, and trade between developing countries. In our model, final good producers pay an environmental tax on the total pollution emitted in their country. Therefore, final good producers determine the overall level of pollution by demanding ‘cleaner’ or ‘dirtier’ intermediate goods. To focus on intra-industry trade we consider only intermediate goods firms trade. We analyze three scenarios: closed economy; open economy with no impediments to trade; and open economy with transportation cost. Our main findings are: i. a developing country closed to trade faces lower final good output and higher total pollution and is thus worse off than a developed country; ii. countries are better off under trade than under autarky, regardless of their development level; and iii. an open economy with low transportation costs are better off than an open economy with no impediments to trade.     

Why Are Agricultural Goods Not Traded More Intensively: High Trade Costs or Low Productivity Variation?

This paper empirically studies the sizes of agricultural trade costs and productivity variation in the agriculture sector. In a general Ricardian trade model, I identify these two factors as possible causes of the observed low trade intensity of agricultural goods. Using data on bilateral trade flows, prices of agricultural goods and sectoral production from a sample of 46 countries, I estimate the variation of agricultural productivity as well as trade costs on agricultural and manufactured goods. I find that trade costs are substantial, with agricultural trade costs roughly twice as large as manufacturing trade costs. Moreover, consistent with the existing literature, I find that distance is the dominant part in the estimated trade costs. Lastly, relative to existing estimates of the heterogeneity of manufacturing productivity, the heterogeneity of agricultural productivity is large. These findings suggest that high trade costs are the main impediments to agricultural trade.     

An empirical assessment of the welfare effects of reciprocal dumping

Can two-way trade in similar products lead to lower welfare than if such trade was banned? Theory answers yes. To empirically investigate this proposition we examine Swedish imports of bottled water. Assuming one-shot (Bertrand and Cournot) competition, we can use the estimates from a structural model of demand to uncover marginal costs. We simulate the effect on consumer and producer surplus of banning imports. We do not find convincing evidence that banning imports would increase overall welfare. Given our choice of market this suggests we should not be overly concerned with the welfare effects of two-way trade in consumer goods that are close to homogenous.     

Why does not everybody purchase fair trade products? The question of the fairness of fair trade products' consumption for consumers1

Current statistics show that more than three out of four people in France have heard about fair trade. However, fair trade goods are purchased in significantly higher proportions by executive class people, individuals with a postgraduate education, urban dwellers and high‐income earners. Why does not everybody purchase fair trade products? An important question follows: is fair trade not really fair for consumers? This paper seeks to gain deeper insight into what social features give rise to the consumption of fair trade goods using quantitative and qualitative data to verify the reasons for which fair trade goods are consumed by particular groups in society. It shows that the lack of access to information and financial resources can explain consumers' refusal to purchase fair trade products. But this explanation is incomplete, as the meaning given by consumers to their consumption appears to be a key‐factor to understand their behaviour: refusing to buy fair trade goods can be a deliberate choice.     

Capital mobility and import substitution policies

This paper considers a conventional trade model with intermediate goods and capital mobility. In this framework, raising the barriers to imports tends to carry a country toward high exports. This is a new result and casts serious doubts regarding the proposition that policies of import substitution which characterized much of Latin America in the 1950s are basically inward oriented and tend to carry toward the low import, low export end of the spectrum.     

A league of their own: services exporters – a developing country perspective

This paper provides a firm-level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm-level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003–2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only while multinationals that sell only goods are bigger than multinationals exporting both goods and services or those exporting only services.     

Diversification cones, trade costs and factor market linkages

This paper finds non-uniform differences in the distribution functions of factor usage intensities among 10 rich OECD countries. The 10 countries form three distinct groups such that the between-group differences are more pronounced than within-group differences and capital-abundant countries are in capital-abundant groups. The estimation works even if the same industry codes represent different goods across countries in the data. The finding is consistent with the multiple-cone factor proportions theory with zero trade costs with each group being one cone. An alternative interpretation is non-zero trade costs. Both interpretations imply weak factor market linkages between the countries in different groups.     

On necessarily welfare-enhancing free trade areas

The well-known Kemp-Vanek-Ohyama-Wan proposition establishes that if two or more countries form a customs union (CU) by freezing their net external trade vector through a common external tariff and eliminating internal trade barriers, the union as a whole and the rest of the world cannot be worse off than before. Owing to the fact that a Free Trade Area (whose member countries impose country specific external tariff vectors) does not equalize marginal rates of substitution across its member countries (in contrast to a CU), the literature has been unable to provide a parallel demonstration regarding welfare improving Free Trade Areas (FTAs). The present paper eliminates this gap. In extending the result to the case with intermediate inputs, the paper also sheds new light on the rules of origin required to support such necessarily welfare enhancing FTAs. We show here that provided no trade deflection is permitted, all that is required by way of rules of origin is that the goods produced within the union - whether final or intermediate - be allowed to be traded freely. The proportion of domestic value added in final goods does not enter as a criterion in the rules of origin.     

GVC视角下中国制造业贸易竞争力研究--基于总贸易与增加值贸易口径的比较

在全球价值链背景下,中国货物贸易的中间产品贸易存在逆差,而最终产品贸易存在顺差。那么中国货物贸易的贸易竞争力究竟如何?研究结论认为:第一,中国制造业整体具有较强的贸易竞争力,并基本呈现不断攀升趋势;制造业分行业之间的贸易竞争力差别很大。第二,总贸易口径下的贸易竞争力在一定程度上低估了大部分制造业的实际情况。第三,造成总贸易口径衡量的贸易竞争力偏离实际情况的原因与该行业参与全球价值链的程度有关。     

Global production sharing and trade in the services of factors

This article develops an approach to measuring the factor content of trade when intermediate inputs are traded, and techniques differ for reasons such as factor price differences. An empirical section documents the importance of intermediates and shows that they mitigate cross-country differences in the factor content of finished goods. The performance of recent models of factor service trade is also evaluated. Existing approaches impute the factor content of imported intermediates with domestic techniques and tend to overstate how well those models perform. The framework developed here can help reconcile general-equilibrium trade models with actual patterns of trade.     

Non-competitive imports and gains from trade

The paper argues for the explicit inclusion in international trade models of goods which cannot be produced in the importing country. Non-competitive goods require a product-requisite factor which is not universally available. International trade in these goods generates much greater per-unit gains from trade than trade in ordinary goods which can be produced in both (all) countries. Omission of these goods from models of international trade leads to the possibility of a gross underestimation of the difference between autarkic and with-trade income levels. The omission of these goods also neglects some dimensions of policy which are important in the real world, such as sanctions.     

Multiple cones, factor price differences and the factor content of trade

This paper examines the theoretical predictions of the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model and the empirical evidence for it. I extend Helpman (1984)by identifying additional restrictions that characterize the free trade equilibrium. I illustrate that the complete set of restrictions are the building blocks of a multi-cone factor content specification which is the factor content dual to Alan Deardorff's (1979)well-known chain of comparative advantage goods prediction. The theoretical analysis implies that the existing tests of Helpman are incomplete. Applying the complete set of restrictions to Choi and Krishna's data set of 8 OECD countries, I find limited empirical support. This is compatible with previous studies suggesting that OECD countries do not occupy different cones.     

The Tradability of Services within Canada and the European Union

This paper analyses bilateral trade flows between the provinces of Canada and between the member states of the European Union using a gravity model. On average, distance is less a hindrance for services trade than for goods trade. Language and regulation differences hamper intra-EU trade significantly. Services trade, in contrast to goods trade, is also hampered by the level of regulation in the importing country. Services trade within Canada as a share of GDP is twice the intra-EU level, and estimates suggest that intra-EU services trade could more than double if the internal market functioned like the Canadian services market.     

中国出口产业结构优化评估——基于垂直专业化比率指标的改进与动态分析

为解释中国出口产业结构提升的原因,我们通过对平新乔等(2006)方法进行修正和改进后,对中国出口中的垂直专业化比率进行了测算,结果发现:中国的出口贸易依然具有明显的"加工贸易"特征,而亚洲国家和地区则是提供给中国中间品的主要来源地;其次,出口份额与垂直专业化比率具有明显的正相关性,充分表明当前中国出口产业结构提升的主要原因在于进口中间品所做出的贡献,中国出口商品的比较优势依然在于廉价的劳动力;第三,尽管中国目前仍处于国际垂直生产体系的低附加值阶段,但随着时间推移,中国已开始优化其出口产业结构,改变过度依赖加工贸易的生产与贸易模式。     

STOLPER–SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH OLIGOPOLISTIC PROFITS

This paper investigates the distributional impact of international trade when goods markets are oligopolistic and firms partially pass‐through changes in tariffs into prices and factor costs for differentiated products. Trade liberalization raises mark‐ups and profit shares in the export industry and lowers them in the import‐competing industry, while Stolper–Samuelson effects on real prices of primary factors are attenuated or possibly reversed. An extended model shows how ‘offshoring’ (trade in intermediate goods) can potentially increase mark‐ups for oligopolistic producers of final goods. The analysis illuminates why business interests generally support trade liberalization policies today, regardless of their countries' factor abundance.     

What do Corporations have to do with Fair Trade? Positive and Normative Analysis from a Value Chain Perspective

There has been tremendous growth in the sales of certified fair trade products since the introduction of the first of these goods in the Netherlands in 1988. Many would argue that this rapid growth has been due in large part to the increasing involvement of corporations. Still, participation by corporations in fair trade has not been welcomed by all. The basic point of contention is that, while corporate participation has the potential to rapidly extend the market for fair trade goods, it threatens key aspects of what many see as the original vision of fair trade – most notably a primary concern for the plight of small producers and the goal of developing an alternative approach to trade and development – and may even be undermining its long-term survival. The primary purpose of this article is to explore the normative issues involved in corporate participation in fair trade. In order to do that, however, it first provides a positive analysis of how corporations are actually involved in fair trade. In order to achieve both of these ends, the article draws upon global value chain analysis.     

On the connections between intra-temporal and intertemporal trades

This paper develops a new theory of international economics by introducing Heckscher–Ohlin features of intra-temporal trade into an intertemporal trade approach of current account. To do so, we consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with tradable sectors of different factor intensities, which allows for substitution between intertemporal trade (current account adjustment) and intra-temporal trade (goods trade). An economy's response to a shock generally involves a combination of a change in the composition of goods trade and a change in the current account. Flexible factor markets reduce the need for the current account to adjust. On the other hand, the more rigid the factor markets, the larger the size of current account adjustment relative to the volume of goods trade, and the slower the speed of adjustment of the current account towards its long-run equilibrium. We present empirical evidence consistent with the theory.     

International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model in which durable goods are traded across countries. Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. The model is able to match many dimensions of the data, which suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models.     

Local costs of distribution,international trade costs and micro evidence on the law of one price

This paper connects trade flows to deviations from the law of one price (LOOP) in a structural model of trade and retailing. It accounts for the observed cross-country dispersion in prices of goods, based on retail price survey data, by focusing on two sources of goods market segmentation — (i) international trade costs, and (ii) non-traded input costs of distribution. I find that a multi-sector Ricardian trade model, ala Eaton–Kortum, augmented with a distribution sector, can account for the average price dispersion for a basket of goods fully and generates 70% of the variation in price dispersion across goods within the basket. While tradability of goods is important in explaining the average price dispersion for the basket of goods, distribution costs are important in explaining why, within the basket, some goods show more price dispersion than others.