双边营商环境、契约依赖和贸易持续期*--基于中国企业微观数据的实证研究

在国际贸易中，贸易双方所在地的契约环境和贸易产品的契约特征是影响贸易关系的重要因素。文章基于异质性贸易理论框架，分别从产品行业特征的内因角度和地区契约环境的外因角度研究了契约因素如何通过影响风险来作用于贸易持续期，并使用 H S8分位数层面的中国海关统计数据库、世界银行营商环境调查数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据，从“企业－产品－目的地”视角进行了 COX 比例风险分析。研究表明：（1）地理契约特征对贸易持续期存在着显著影响，贸易双方所在地的契约环境优势对贸易持续期有着显著的促进作用；（2）地理契约特征对贸易持续期的影响因贸易产品的异质性契约特征而存在差异，良好的地区契约环境能够在更大的边际效应上降低违约风险，并能够在高契约依赖度的产品贸易中得到更好地发挥；（3）虽然我国的贸易关系数量在增加，但退出率却在逐年上升。文章从贸易持续期的角度来研究贸易平稳性，这对于我国今后如何提升对外贸易质量有着重要意义。     

电子商务契约中电子化意思表示问题研究

信息化已经成为我国社会主义初级阶段的时代特征，经济的发展与信息化的最典型结合就是以互联网为载体的电子商务，电子商务从诞生至今日时间并不长，但其对社会的众多领域却产生了重大的影响。电子商务契约作为电子商务的重要构成内容，与传统的契约一样具有重要的地位。电子商务契约中的电子意思表示作为重要内容必须得以清晰的认识，本文就以电子商务契约中的电子意思表示进行研究，希冀对完善电子商务契约的相关制度有所益处。     

浅论物权法应当保留让与担保制度

十届全国人大常委会第十六次会议对《中华人民共和国物权法（草案）》（以下简称《草案》）进行了第三次审议，新《草案》的修改之一为删除了让与担保权的相关规定。对于该项制度在物权法中的去留。曾有过不同意见。反对的理由主要有以下几种：（1）让与担保以移转标的物的所有权来担保债务之履行，属于流质契约，不仅违反了法律的禁止性规定．还从根本上改变了传统担保物权的概念，在为债权实现提供高强度保护的同时，     

人力资本产权与企业制度创新

一、引言 现代企业理论认为，企业是以一种契约类型（企业契约）代替另一种契约类型（市场契约），代替的原因则在于与市场契约相比，企业所采取的这种新的契约类型能节约交易费用。企业这种新的契约与一般市场契约的本质区别在于，企业包含对人力资本的交易（购买），长期雇佣人力资本的契约一方（权威方）拥有对另一方的指挥，而市场契约不存在这一点（张五常）。     

经理报酬契约中的业绩评价：参照市场或行业加总业绩吗？

本文的理论模型分析发现，在经理报酬契约中赋予市场或行业参照业绩的权重为负值，也就是说，在对经理业绩评价时参照市场或行业加总业绩，可以完全或部分过滤掉契约中的市场噪音，改善经理的努力水平和提高契约激励效率。此外，本文实证研究发现，在我国上市公司总经理报酬契约中，对总经理业绩的评价会参照市场加权(和简单)平均净资产收益率，和一位数行业加权平均净资产收益率。并且发现样本的行业分布一定程度上会影响所得结论。     

中美信用制度建设的比较和建议

市场经济是契约经济，契约产生预期效果的基础是信用，信用产品是维系市场经济正常运行的特效商品。我国现在处于计划经济向市场经济的转型时期，还存在信用的缺失。本文通过对中国和美国信用体系的比较，并借鉴美国信用体系的优点，得出了如何加快我国建立信用体系的建议。     

自发性会计变更、监管契约与契约成本

笔者对我国上市公司自发性会计变更的行为从契约理论的角度进行了分析。对证券市场监管规定和强制性会计政策——两种不同的监管契约对自发性会计变更的不同影响从单向强制性契约成本构成及契约成本最小化方面进行了解释,对证券市场监管契约成本和强制性会计政策契约成本进行了比较研究。     

基于不完备契约理论的股权契约冲突模式研究:理论与实证

本文以不完备契约理论为视角分析了两类代理问题的同质性,即均为剩余搭配错位或产权残缺导致的不完备股权契约的冲突,指出股权契约冲突模式追随股权契约结构,具备状态依存性。为揭示我国现阶段公共契约结构背景下企业股权契约冲突的模式,论文以我国制造业上市公司2005、2006年共1371个观测值为样本,检验了我国企业股权契约结构和公司绩效之间的关系,发现我国企业股权契约冲突模式具有特殊性,不能简单归于任何一类代理问题,从而从实证角度论证了股权契约冲突模式的状态依存之特征。     

基于契约理论的盈余管理动因分析

我国上市公司的盈余管理已经成为阻碍证券市场健康发展的重要因素。本文在盈余管理定义与特征的基础上，指出了企业盈余管理活动是契约不完备的必然结果，最后从契约理论的角度对企业进行盈余管理的动因进行了分析。     

我国民营企业直接融资的制度性障碍

政府对证券市场的隐性担保契约，对我国证券市场的建立和发展起了重要作用。但是，由于这种契约没有解决经济转轨中的“预算软约束”问题，引发国有企业、民营企业对直接融资成本的不同评价，从而导致了阻碍民营企业上市融资的“逆向选择”现象。只有通过制度创新，解除政府对证券市场的隐性担保，才能为民营企业上市融资打通渠道。     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF BANNING SMOKING IN WISCONSIN'S BARS AND RESTAURANTS

There is much debate as to whether or not the passage of no‐smoking laws has adverse consequences for businesses in the hospitality industry. In 2010, the state of Wisconsin implemented a law that banned smoking in all public places. Using a panel of county‐level employment data, I examine the relationship between the implementation of smoking bans in Wisconsin and the subsequent changes in bar and restaurant employment. Using variation in the timing of bans that occurred as a result of four counties that implemented local bans prior to the July 2010 statewide ban, I conduct a difference‐in‐differences analysis to measure the average treatment effect of implementing a smoking ban in Wisconsin. I find that restaurant employment is not affected and that bar employment is significantly reduced as a result of the smoking ban. I also find that counties with higher levels of smoking prevalence see greater reductions in bar employment when a smoking ban is enacted. Back‐of‐the‐envelope estimates suggest that even though there are employment losses, the benefits of the smoking ban outweigh the costs. (JEL L510, D780)     

国家审计结果公告制度研究——基于信号博弈

在我国大力推进民主法制建设的大背景下,公告审计结果已经成为政府的必然选择.审计结果公告制度作为一种信息披露制度,一方面可以解除政府及审计机关的公共受托责任,另一方面为公众监督政府提供了有效途径.但就我国目前的审计结果公告现状来看,不公告审计结果依然是常态,显然,这种状况与我国民主法制建设的发展要求相悖,无法发挥国家审计联系政府和公众的“信息纽带”作用,无法推动社会民主进程的进一步发展.本文通过构建政府与公众的信号博弈模型并求解其均衡路径,以揭示全面实施国家审计结果公告制度的关键条件,据此从建立审计质量评价体系、形成有效的审计人员监督培训机制、提高公众的监督能力和加大处理处罚力度四个方面提出保证我国国家审计结果公告制度有效运行的政策建议.     

股东利益至上的全球银行业最大并购案——荷兰银行被收购案分析

本文描述了荷兰银行收购案的始末,分析了苏格兰皇家银行牵头的财团以分拆收购的方式战胜巴克莱银行的整体收购策略的原因,客观地评价了此次收购战中各参与方的损益,为收购的法律完善提供了建议和支持。并剖析了这项由我国国家开发银行间接参与的收购案对于我国银行业乃至全球银行业参与全球金融的多方面指导意义。     

Country of Origin Labeling (C.O.O.L.): How cool is it?

This paper develops a partial-equilibrium model of a small open-economy trading an unsafe product. The model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade with and without a country-of-origin labeling (COOL) program. The welfare gains from trade in the absence of COOL are ambiguous, may justify the imposition of a trade ban. Even if a full ban does not improve welfare and some restriction of trade is always welfare-enhancing. Under a tariff regime, more COOL trade is better than less trade. Independently of domestic market power, free trade coupled with a COOL program maximizes national welfare.     

Does the ban on trans-fats improve public health? In search of the optimal policy response

This paper examines the contribution of the regulatory ban on trans-fats and voluntary trans-fat regulation to public health outcomes for a sample of 39 countries in the period 1990–2015. To this end, we exploit within-country variation in trans-fat legislation to estimate the impact of the trans fat ban on cardiovascular mortality and obesity rates. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate modest and beneficial effects of the trans-fats ban in reducing cardiovascular mortality and obesity rate. We find that the ban on trans fats tends to decrease the mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular diseases while the effects on the obesity rates are significant, especially among children and adolescent age group. By contrast, voluntary regulation of trans fats and demand-driven regulatory strategies are generally not associated with a marked drop in the obesity rate. By controlling for country-specific time trends, we show that the estimated mortality- and obesity-related impact of the ban is not driven by pre-existing trends, and does not affect non-cardiovascular mortality rate.

     

Saving the public from the private? Incentives and outcomes in dual practice

We consider a monopoly physician offering free public treatment and, if allowed, a private treatment for which patients have to pay out of pocket. While patients differ in the propensity to benefit from private treatment it always yields better health outcomes than public treatment but is also more costly in terms of money and time. We study the physician's supply of private care and allocation of time costs across public and private patients and contrast these with the first‐best allocation. To increase the willingness‐to‐pay for private treatment the physician shifts time costs to public patients. While this turns out to be socially optimal, the resulting positive network effect leads to an over‐provision of private care if time costs are sufficiently high. A second‐best allocation arises when the health authority sets public reimbursement but has no control over private provision. Depending on the welfare weight the health authority attaches to physician profits, a ban of dual practice may improve on the second‐best allocation. Notably, a ban benefits not only public patients but also private patients with a moderate propensity to benefit from private care.     

Why don’t households see the light?: Explaining the diffusion of compact fluorescent lamps

Starting in 2009 the EU ban on the sale of incandescent bulbs will force households to purchase energy-saving compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). The impact of the ban on consumers will depend on the nature of current barriers to the use of CFLs. This paper employs a Double-Hurdle model to identify distinct barriers to household consideration of CFLs and to the subsequent intensity of adoption using a large survey of German households. Barriers to CFL consideration are found to be low for all households, except those with very low incomes. Barriers to CFL consideration are, however, strongly linked to the residential characteristics of low-income households like small size and to the lack of household knowledge of energy consumption. CFLs use will increase after the ban mainly through a rise in the intensity of adoption. But the ban will be costly to consumers because the range of applications where households chose to employ CFLs is limited, particularly for high income households.     

基于事件研究法的“大小非”解禁关于股票市场风险研究

通过比较＂大小非＂解禁事件前后不同时期的风险价值VaR,来评价大小非解禁对证券市场风险的影响。首先针对股票收益率序列具有波动聚集以及尖峰、厚尾的分布形态,应用GARCH类模型计算解禁前后各一段时期内沪深两市不同解禁量股票的VaR;其次应用多种定性、定量统计方法对所计算的VaR值进行前后分析比较,分析结果表明,采用的方法能够很好地捕捉到＂大小非＂解禁事件增大股票市场风险趋势这一现象。     

Persuasion and economic efficiency. The cost-benefit analysis of banning abortion

A simple cost-benefit approach to the abortion debate is unlikely to be persuasive if efficiency arguments conflict with widely held concepts of justice or rely on improbable notions of consent. Illustrative of the limitations of economic analyses are the models proposed by Meeks and Posner to make a case against abortion on demand. Meeks posits a tradeoff between the consumer surplus women gain from access to abortion and the expected loss of earnings that would have accrued to the aborted conceptuses. From here, Meeks derives the critical price elasticity that equates welfare gains and losses and argues that a ban on abortion represents a Kaldor-Hicks improvement in welfare if the price elasticity of demand falls above the critical level. Basic to his model are several questionable assumptions: an independence of ability to pay for an abortion and income, all women who select abortion have the same linear demand for the procedure, an abortion ban would eliminate the practice of abortion, economic efficiency generally requires slavery, and the morally relevant population includes the unborn. Posner, on the other hand, argues that an abortion ban would be efficient if the average surplus lost by a woman who chooses not to break the law is less than half the average value of the fetus saved. He assumes that it takes 1.83 abortions avoided to increase the population by 1 individual and favors reducing the current abortion rate by 30% rather than banning the procedure. Although Posner's model does not require specification of any particular value for the fetus, it neglects the increased health risk for pregnant women of illegal abortion. Moreover, Posner assumes that all women obey the law if it is in their economic interest to do so. Detrimental to both models is an assumption that sound normative judgments can be made on the basis of average values for observable data and the goal of maximizing wealth is logically prior to the specification of individual rights. It is concluded that economic arguments can be persuasive on the abortion issue only if there is agreement that cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate basis for decision making.     

Colonization and the Rule of Law: Comparing the Effectiveness of Common Law and Civil Law Countries

The rule of law is one of the most important components of any explanation of cross-national differences in economic well-being. But what leads to better rule of law in a country? Using an institutional approach this paper probes the effect of legal systems in influencing the rule of law. There has long been speculation that the countries adopting English common law are better at providing legal dispute resolution than those adopting the continental forms of civil law. That speculative assessment is found to be true only in those countries that have been colonized, further analysis demonstrates that it is the effectiveness of the protection of property rights in common law systems rather than the institutions themselves that influence rule of law statistics. The paper calls for a more refined examination of legal systems which takes into consideration whether law is organically developed or transplanted.