Can Japan succeed in “Chigyo-ka” (intelprise-formation)?

There are two aspects in today's information revolution that started in the late 1970s. The first is an aspect referred to as “the third industrial revolution,” which triggers the transition to the “21st century system of Industrialization.” The information revolution in this sense brings the creation of new “breakthrough industries (new multimedia industries).” And the second aspect of the information revolution possesses the characteristics of both a technological revolution and a social revolution and brings about the arrival of the third phase of the historical evolutionary process of the modern civilization, which proceeds through three phases, namely “militarization, industrialization, and then informatization.”If the bearers of modern industrialization are a “group of enterprises” that have been engaged in the race in order to gain “wealth” (generalized means of exchange/exploitation power), and if these enterprises' activities have been exercised in the world market where their products have been sold, then it is appropriate to call the bearers of informatization a “group of intelprises.” They will be engaged in the race to gain “wisdom” (generalized means of persuasion/induction power), then stages of their activities can be called a “global intelplace” where “sharables,” that is, information and knowledge, will be disseminated. And now, toward the 21st century, the third phase of modernization, which can be called the “informatization/intelprise formation” or the “wisdom game” (intellectualism), is about to begin.Japan's “ie society (a society based on the ie principle—literally, it means “house” but here it is interpreted as cultural principle for organizing a society), which has been going through the process of evolution on the Japan Archipelago, has developed a network-based organization with little stratification within its infrastructure. In this sense, Japanese society can be characterized as a “network-oriented society” in which intelprises and an intelplace in the broad sense have functioned as the essential components of the society since Middle Ages. In general, an intelplace and intelprises that operate actively within this framework serve as the flexible bases for different types of social relations and institutions, such as states and markets and eventually integrate these into the society to a certain extent. In fact, it took place quite regularly during the modernization “in the narrow sense,” or Westernization of Japanese society after the Meiji Restoration. There exist some problems, however. Some of the characteristics found in Japanese society may become obstacles to activities aimed at the sharing and promotion of information and knowledge in the global intelplace and Japanese participation in the “wisdom game.” Badly needed are serious efforts for Japanese intelprise-formation to reduce these obstacles as much as possible.     

中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。     

The mature region building a practical model for the transition to the sustainable society

The demographic shift from the northeast to the “sunbelt” has resource implications that will span several decades. Early in the 21st century, today's “boom” regions will be significantly affected by declining petro-energy and an aging population and infrastructure. The northeast is now in an analogous situation.The transition to the sustainable society is unlikely to occur in the sunbelt while the boom is on, but the need for sustainability is immediate in the northeast. For the mature industrial states, economic survival is tied to the level of self-sufficiency they can achieve in the 1980s and 1990s. The efforts toward greater regional sustainability can offer practical models to regions yet to encounter cyclical decline. The transition to the sustainable society will be built on the aggregated efforts of regions to bring their unique circumstances into balance.New England is presented as the case study of a mature region, no longer growing, but embarking in measurable ways on a path toward regional sustainability. The model focuses on the recapture of resources that have traditionally sustained the region—the landscape, the 19th century settlement pattern, and the educational establishment.The inquiry is directed to practical efforts now being made by the private sector to readapt these traditional resources and increase New England's self-sufficiency. The paper will examine the significance of New England private sector endeavors, for effects on other regions, demonstration value and transferability, and conditions that merit continuing investigation as models for the transition to the sustainable society.     

Self-referential thinking and equilibrium as states of mind in games: fMRI evidence

Sixteen subjects' brain activity were scanned using fMRI as they made choices, expressed beliefs, and expressed iterated 2nd-order beliefs (what they think others believe they will do) in eight games. Cingulate cortex and prefrontal areas (active in “theory of mind” and social reasoning) are differentially activated in making choices versus expressing beliefs. Forming self-referential 2nd-order beliefs about what others think you will do seems to be a mixture of processes used to make choices and form beliefs. In equilibrium, there is little difference in neural activity across choice and belief tasks; there is a purely neural definition of equilibrium as a “state of mind.” “Strategic IQ,” actual earnings from choices and accurate beliefs, is negatively correlated with activity in the insula, suggesting poor strategic thinkers are too self-focused, and is positively correlated with ventral striatal activity (suggesting that high IQ subjects are spending more mental energy predicting rewards).     

论物流信息化建设中知识管理的实施

在知识经济时代,知识管理已经成为当代企业管理的重要概念与手段,只有当企业充分认识到知识管理的重要性并自觉实施有效的知识管理,才能使企业在全球激烈的竞争环境中立于不败之地。而21世纪的物流企业如何将其战略资源从资本转移到知识用以解决各种问题、发挥更高的效能已成为我国物流业普遍关注的新课题。     

Challenging the human crisis: “The trilemma”

The great increase in world population in the coming century will result in a human crisis of worldwide proportions. A new concept for describing and proposing solutions to this crisis, called the Trilemma, is described by the authors. To feed large and growing populations, humankind is now being forced to make the difficult choice between producing sufficient food for the world population and preserving the environment, or generating economic growth, requiring the consumption of energy and natural resources. These difficult choices present the Trilemma, a new concept that is composed of three dimensions: economic growth, resources such as energy and food, and the environment. None of these three dimensions can be optimized individually as they are mutually interdependent.This paper describes a possible world energy condition in the 21st century. Three scenarios of this energy consumption are presented and compared with the possible energy supply at that time. This supply is estimated from the extrapolation of the renewable energy development of the past and the possible fossil fuel supply. The comparison of the energy supply and the energy consumption indicates that the annual rate of economic growth in the developed region would be only 1% if the gross national product (GNP) per capita of the developing region increases gradually from 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions in 1990, to 1/10 in 2020, and finally to 1/3 in 2100.Another possibility is that if the GNP per capita of the developing region remains 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions between 1990 and 2100, the economic growth rate in the developed region could be as large as 3%. In the latter case, an energy shortage would develop in the middle of the 21st century, even if the fast breeder reactor were fully operational by the year 2030. Energy technological developments in Japan are also described as a part of the possible countermeasures against the Trilemma.     

Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

Is Japan really a share economy?

Weitzman claims that Japan is a “living laboratory” for the share economy. This paper examines that proposition and concludes that Japanese bonuses are better interpreted as disguised wage payments than as profit shares. Other institutional features of the Japanese labor market provide more likely explanations of that economy's performance.     

Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

Subjective conditional probability modelling

Cross-impact analysis is a technique for investigating the effect of interaction of events in future oriented studies. A fundamental difficulty with cross-impact analysis is to determine what respondents mean when they answer the “conditional probability” questions normally posed. This paper offers a heuristic alternative to traditional cross-impact analysis which is applicable to cross-impact situations where the object is to generate scenarios for decision making.     

Semiotic emergent framework to address the reality of cyberterrorism

The following paper examines concepts associated with cyberterrorism. Most of the current attention given terrorism involves both probability and consequences related to the physical world. Focuses in “what-if” scenarios involve threats to the economy and the population from an enemy that has all the discretion in selecting the battlefield. But what if the target of terrorism activity is a virtual world? The economic and communications infrastructure of many countries depend on cyber thoroughfares at least as much as they do those of concrete or steel. Yet little attention is given to the notion of attacks that can occur in cyberspace. This discussion examines what cyberterrorism means, the forms it may take and how it may occur, and safeguards that should be considered in preparation for cyber warfare. To this end, we draw from current theories involving semiotics, emergence, and complexity to ground our work.     

Revisiting the Roots of Japan's Economic Stagnation: The role of the Japanese corporation

For a long period in the 20th century, the development of the Japanese corporation appeared congruent with the development of the Japanese economy. The growth-maximising behaviour of the Japanese corporation and the preference for internal growth over acquisitions (see Odagiri, 1992) appeared to suit the long-term ambitions of Japan. Now, that formerly clear connection between the ambitions of corporate Japan and the Japanese public interest is no longer so clear. Increasingly, the global ambitions of the corporation appear as an impediment to Japan's economic development. By favouring the development of large-scale transnational corporations, Japanese industrial policy-making appears to have contained a fundamental flaw. Japan is now dominated by large-scale organisations with global ambitions, controlled by corporate elites. It is unlikely that their strategic decisions will correspond with the wider public interest, which raises the possibility that Japan is now afflicted with 'strategic failure'. Other examples from around the world suggest that Japan is not unique in this respect. Alternative ways forward are suggested.     

Limiting the system and reshaping lifestyles: Solving unemployment by social and technical innovations

We have become used to seeing crises in growth, unemployment, and inflation as purely economic problems that can be overcome by suitable economic and political means. One basic assumption of the following reflection however, is that the above might be only half the picture. To paraphrase a formula of Friedrich Engels, the concern is not “in the first and last instance” with questions of the “economic basis,” but with questions of the current images of human kind, social milieus and lifestyles. Solutions will thus tend to lie in social innovations and reorganization of the System insofar as they complement the new lifestyles.     

Explaining the economic trajectories of civilizations: The systemic approach

A civilization constitutes a durable social system of complementary traits. Some of the complementarities of any given civilization are between elements of “material” life and ones commonly treated as integral to “culture.” Identifying the mechanisms responsible for a civilization's observed trajectory involves, therefore, causal relationships that cross the often-postulated “cultural–material” divide. Complementarities make it difficult to transplant institutions across civilizations on a piecemeal basis. They imply that reforms designed to jump-start an economy will fail unless they are comprehensive. Civilizational analysis can benefit, therefore, from attention to institutional complementarities, including ones involving both cultural and material variables.     

新疆对外贸易竞争力研究

以竞争力理论为基础,应用定性和定量相结合的方法,通过对新疆贸易现状的分析和国际、国内的比较,认为在经济全球化下如何竞争已成为世界各国（包括地区）政府、国际组织和理论学术界关注的焦点之一。从理论和实际的结合上研究在世界经济结构调整下的国际竞争力与提升新疆贸易竞争力问题,对于新疆深化改革、扩大开放,以发展为主体、结构调整为主线、体制创新和科技创新为动力,采取渐进式的发展模式提升地区的贸易竞争力,使新疆这一边疆地区与全国一同登上世界经济舞台,积极参与国际竞争,到21世纪中叶达到中等发达国家贸易水平,具有重要的现实意义。同时提出了新疆贸易竞争力提升的对策措施和政策建议。     

经济全球化下的农产品对外贸易政策及其调整

经济全球化形成当今世界经济发展的主流,中国加入WTO,必将加快其融入经济全球化的步伐,因而农产品对外贸易政策体系的建立及其调整是21世纪我国农业经济和贸易经济发展的战略选择。     

Financial markets, specialization, and learning by doing

This paper considers three questions: (1) what is the role of financial markets in development, (2) why do some economies have such poorly developed financial markets, and (3) can government policy be used to promote financial market development? With respect to the first question, we formalize the widely-held notion that financial markets promote entrepreneurship, specialization, and learning-by-doing. However, if economic incentives for specialization are absent, financial markets may fail to form. This occurs when real interest rates are too low. We also discuss policies that can be used to promote financial market development. When these policies are successful, they will be growth promoting. Finally, we examine policies intended to manipulate returns on savings, which are often important components of “financial liberalizations”. We describe conditions under which such policies will be conducive to growth.     

日本农业领域生物技术的研究开发与应用

进入新世纪,日本将生物技术产业纳入国家经济发展的最重要产业之一,政府和民间通过各种方式全力推进其技术研发和成果产业化进程。 在农业领域,日本虽然在基因育种等个别领域起步较晚,但凭借其在尖端技术研发和资金投入等方面的实力,农业生物技术的研发水平在短期内迅速提高,综合研发能力和许多单项技术水平已处于世界前列。基因组研究和转基因技术开发不断取得突破性进展,功能食品开发成果显著,胚胎移植和克隆技术已实际应用,利用不同生物手段育成大量的动植物新品种。许多研发成果已成功转化并实现产业化,生物技术在日本的现代化农业中起愈加重要的作用。 本文概述了目前日本农业生物技术的发展战略和政策措施,以及种植、畜产、水产等六大领域生物技术的研发现状和最新进展,并对农业生物技术主要研发机构的情况作了简要介绍。     

The Research on System for Green Manufacturing Assessment

In the 20th century, manufacturing industries created a great amount of wealth for mankind, but they also caused the serious environmental pollution. Therefore, the implementation of green manufacturing will be imperative for manufacturing industries in the 21st century. The philosophy of sustainable development is necessarily and importantly used in the enterprise survival and progress. So, the green manufacturing prevails in the whole world, which appeals to the research from lots of experts and governments. However, how we can assess the green degree of the product becomes a significant problem to us. From the sustainable development view, it is pointed out in this paper how an enterprise can properly assess the green degree of the green products, which uses different indexes to measure the different influence.     

When economics harmonized mathematics in Japan: a history of stability analysis

This article discusses how economics was mathematized by Japanese theoretical economists with the cooperation of Japanese mathematicians before 1950. Mathematicians played the leading part in assimilating European scientific ideas and providing an internationally oriented attitude in Japan from the mid nineteenth century. They began to publish many updated textbooks in Japanese from around 1930 on. In the 1940s, Japanese mathematical economists were intensively studying the so-called stability problem, thereby mathematizing economics more rapidly than ever before. Their research activity will give us an interesting example of a process of organizing economic knowledge by introducing more mathematics into the economics literature.