中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态及协同性分析

笔者运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期的区制状态以及两地经济周期的协同性进行了检验.结果显示:一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期均存在显著的三区制性质,即经济周期可划分为"低速"、"适速"和"高速"增长区制;另一方面,中国内地与香港经济周期的协同性水平偏低,并且存在依赖于区制状态的"门限性质",即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平.     

医药制造业发明专利与产业发展的空间耦合协调研究

专利与产业协调发展对实现产业创新发展至关重要。采用改进的象限图法以及专利重心与产业重心空间耦合态势模型,定量分析我国医药制造业发明专利与产业发展之间的耦合协调关系以及两者的时空动态演变趋势。结果表明,目前我国医药制造业发明专利与产业发展间存在明显偏离,耦合协调性主要表现为西高东低、北高南低的分布格局;近5年来,耦合协调性有所提高,发明专利重心与产业发展重心间的距离逐渐缩小,变动一致性提高。结论可为专利密集型产业、高技术产业专利与产业协调发展提供理论和实证支持。     

Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions

This study revisits business cycle duration dependence in G7 countries by controlling for foreign recessions, defined as the number of other G7 countries in a recession. Estimates from regime switching logit models show that the monthly likelihood of ending an expansion roughly doubles for every extra G7 country in recession, but the end of foreign recessions do not affect the ending of recessions. They also show that recessions are duration dependent in all G7 countries, but expansions only in the United States and Germany. The economic importance of foreign recessions and duration in driving business cycle phase changes vary across countries.     

Interest Rate Volatility Regimes in Selected Asian Countries: A Univariate Markov Switching Analysis

Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output,consumption,and investment,which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates.Using the Markov switching model,we model the nominal interest rate movements to explain the volatility regime shifts in a set of selected emerging Asian economies.The estimated results provide significant evidence of regime-dependent means,variances,and probabilities in both stable and volatile regimes in selected countries,confirming the existence of two distinct regimes in nominal interest rate movements.In addition,the smoothed probability results of switching autoregressive model show that the model is capable of capturing the two regimes for the corresponding nominal interest rate behaviors.Besides,the results reveal that the stables regimes have higher durations than the volatile regimes.This study also shows the advantage of Markov switching models over conventional regression models,allowing the identification of different regimes for the cyclical behavior of interest rates.     

管理层收购:宏观意义与微观监管

管理层收购(MBO)对中国的宏观意义是在国有资产战略性重组过程中与国有股向外商转让、向民营企业转让并列的国有资产退出方式;它能有效激发国有企业干部员工的积极性,提高企业经营效益,促进国民经济增长的速度和质量;在明晰产权的基础上,MBO的发展有助于职业经理人的市场化,有助于建立现代企业制度,改善公司治理机制。因此国家应积极推动MBO,但为防范国有资产的流失,有必要坚持先规范后发展的原则。并加强MBO过程中的微观监管,包括在转让方式、转让价格、整体出售、融资安排与信息披露等方面的规范,使MBO得以规范有序地进行。     

Transmission effects of the U.S. and China monetary policy shocks on the world

This paper applies the Markov-switching model to analyse the transition probabilities and generalized method of moments (GMM) with Newey–West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance estimators (HAC) to examine the continuity of monetary policies in different countries when the U.S. and China change their monetary policies. Our results indicate that the euro area’s monetary authority continues to increase/decrease their money supply to stimulate/depress the economy. In Japan, long-term economic recession motivated the Japanese government to maintain a loose money supply. The continuity of Korea’s monetary policy in expansionary states lasts up to 5.1 years. Besides, the outcomes show the implementation of U.S. quantitative easing (QE), overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP), and Chinese RRP policies have significant spillover effects on other nations. Particularly, the effects on the euro area are the largest. Furthermore, although the monetary policies of China and the euro area seem to move in opposite directions, they are interdependent.     

建筑产业集群及其模式的探讨

在产业集群理论基础上,分析了建筑产业集群现象,提出采用区位商识别建筑产业集群的方法。根据形成原因的不同,将建筑产业集群划分为市场自发型和政府主导型两种模式,并对这两种模式进行比较分析,提出促进集群发展的对策建议。     

我国水产品专业市场发展动力及其商业模式研究——基于面板数据的经验分析与沪粤浙三地例证

全球化背景下的食品质量安全问题受到前所未有的关注,学术界纷纷从产业组织模式新视角探寻其治理机制.文章通过理论推演与经验分析发现,在当今移动互联时代现代流通组织模式快速扩散的情形下,专业市场显示出巨大的生命力,是我国水产品质量安全与产业升级的重要载体与集成平台.基于面板数据探寻水产品专业市场经营绩效的驱动因素,发现专业市场高效运转有赖于市场经营特色与区位优势,市场商业模式与消费需求的对接,市场与入驻商户尤其是大商户伙伴关系的建立.依循这三个主导要素,采用多案例研究总结了成功的专业市场商业模式的共性并讨论了对水产品专业市场兴建与繁荣升级的启示.     

The Impact of Patents on Innovation,Technology Transfer and Health: A Pre- and Post-TRIPs Analysis of India's Pharmaceutical Industry

The debate surrounding the World Trade Organization's Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) Agreement indicates that patents matter for development. Yet literature on the geography of knowledge transfer shows that knowledge is spatially sticky, suggesting that the impact of patents can be exaggerated. Using interview evidence, this paper explores how Indian pharmaceutical firms have responded to changes in patent law, including the introduction of more extensive patent protection in 2005 as a condition of TRIPs. A regime of limited patent protection for over three decades prior to TRIPs facilitated informal knowledge transfer and the emergence of a pharmaceutical industry with significant domestic capabilities. Contrary to some expectations, the Indian pharmaceutical industry has continued to grow post-TRIPs, with large domestic firms becoming involved in more formal technology transfer as part of an increasingly collaborative relationship with multinationals. This trend is also driven by a focus on the markets of developed countries, raising questions for the future sustainability of India's low-priced medicines. While changes in patent law can facilitate or inhibit a variety of aspects of development, the adaptation of the Indian pharmaceutical industry suggests that their impact must be related to the broader institutional setting, particularly the underlying domestic capabilities.     

The business cycle in a financially deregulated context: Theory and evidence

This article proposes Minsky's financial instability hypothesis (FIH) as a theoretical underpinning for a three‐regime business cycles model. Further, it is argued that the development of the FIH for open, developing economies (FIH‐ODE) provides a better understanding of the performance of business cycles in these economies, particularly during the last two decades. In support of these claims, a three‐regime autoregressive Markov switching model is estimated from 1980q1 to 2000q4 to Mexico's quarterly real GDP to investigate its business cycle behaviour. The estimated probabilities of the high and medium growth regimes suggest, for example, that after the financial liberalisation programme was fully launched, in the late 1980s, the economy shifted from the regime of medium to high growth (and vice versa) swiftly, reflecting its dependence on capital flows. Furthermore, the estimated parameters indicate that the average length of the business cycle has not changed.     

Impact of macroeconomic factors and country risk ratings on GCC stock markets: evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with regime switching

This study examines the non-linear relationship between stock markets in GCC countries and their country risk ratings as well as with major macroeconomic factors. Based on a dynamic panel threshold model with two and four regimes, the results provide evidence of short-term asymmetry between first-lagged GCC stock returns and the performance of GCC stock markets. In addition, only the financial risk (FR) rating has a significant positive effect on the performance of GCC stock markets according to the prevailing regimes for the GCC lagged returns and the Brent oil market. Among the macroeconomic factors, improvements in the global stock markets, the MSCI Global Islamic Index, and the oil price increased the performance of GCC stock markets, whereas increases in the gold price, the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate, and the U.S. Treasury bond rate reduced the performance of the GCC stock markets. These results have important implications for investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers.     

减免东盟农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.在Chingem模型的基础上,按照中国与东盟达成的"早期收获方案",模拟2006年减免东盟原六国农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业的短期影响.研究表明,减免东盟六国农产品进口关税有利于我国经济增长,其中经济增长的动力来源于就业水平的提高;国内价格水平会下降,如CPI下降了0.11%;出口增长高于进口增长,贸易顺差有增加的趋势;促进了制造业的发展,其中纺织部门受益最大;羊毛部门受纺织业的拉动产出增长,而其它的农业和服务业部门影响轻微.