Capital accumulation and real exchange rate behavior in a small open economy with credit market frictions

Summary. We consider the nature of the relationship between the real exchange rate and capital formation. We present a model of a small open economy that produces and consumes two goods, one tradable and one not. Domestic residents can borrow and lend abroad, and costly state verification (CSV) is a source of frictions in domestic credit markets. The real exchange rate matters for capital accumulation because it affects the␣potential for investors to provide internal finance, which mitigates the CSV problem. We demonstrate that the real exchange rate must monotonically approach its steady state level. However, capital accumulation need not be monotonic and real exchange rate appreciation can be associated with either a rising or a falling capital stock. The relationship between world financial market conditions and the real exchange rate is also investigated. Received: October 3, 1997; revised version: October 23, 1997     

Does risk aversion explain behavior in a lemon market?

Siegenthaler proposes an ingenious solution to the lemon market adverse selection problem. He incorporates ‘‘cheap talk’’ in which sellers send out costless and nonbinding messages informing potential buyers of the quality of their goods; these messages could be true or false. This segments the market into several submarkets. Potential buyers need to decide which submarket to enter and what price to bid for the goods. Sellers then decide whether to accept the bid or not. He experimentally tests his model and finds that the comparative static results align with his theory, although the data do not exactly fit the model. Indeed, he does not fit the model to the data. His theory assumes risk-neutral decision-makers (DMs). Two reasons why the fit is not perfect may be that the DMs are not risk neutral and not perfectly rational. In this note, we report the results of fitting an asymmetric risk averse quantal response equilibrium (QRE) extension of his model to his data, and we find that the extension fits well. We show that the results are consistent with the market evidence and shed light on future research on lemon markets.     

不确定性条件下资本市场投资预期收益模型探析

在现实经济活动中特别是在资本市场投资中,人们对将来的情况很难准确地预测到,他们所知道的最多只不过是在未来各种各样的收益状况下所可能产生的结果.也就是说,未来经济活动特别是资本市场投资活动具有不确定性.由于不确定性的预期的作用和影响,在不确定性条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型与在确定性条件下的收益模型存在着一定的偏差.只有减少人们对经济不确定性的预期,才能使资本市场投资需求旺盛.     

Variety of products,public capital,and endogenous growth

This paper develops an extension of the endogenous growth model with variety expansion presented in Romer [Romer, P.M., 1990. Endogenous technical change, Journal of Political Economy 98, part 2, S71–S102] by considering public capital accumulation. Characterizing the transitional dynamics, the growth rate of consumption traces (and available number of intermediate goods also might trace) an S-shaped converging path to the equilibrium growth rate, similar to a logistic growth curve, if the intensity of public capital is sufficiently high. We also show that public investment enhances economic growth because it stimulates demand for intermediate goods and raises the market interest rate.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy on co-movements between money and capital markets

From 2010 to 2017, with interest rate liberalization and capital market development in China, the impact of monetary policies on China’s financial markets underwent continuous evolution. Using the DCC-GARCH model, this study investigates the transmission process of monetary policies from the money market to capital markets (stock and bond markets). The results show that in the early stage the instability of the money and stock markets and the downturn in the bond market are primarily caused by the block of monetary policy transmission and the paucity of fund sources in the capital markets. Subsequently, the outbreak of the 2013 money shortage and the 2015 stock market crash are also closely related to monetary policies. In the later periods, the money and stock markets maintain a low degree of correlation for a long time, reducing the impact of destabilizing factors on the stock market. By contrast, with the advancement of interest rate reform and the optimization of bond market structure, the bond market is highly relevant to the money market. The central bank regulates the bond market more effectively using both traditional and innovative monetary policy tools.     

资本市场促进技术创新的效率研究——以西部地区为例

在运用Malmquist指数的基础上,笔者测量了我国西部地区12个省市资本市场促进技术创新的全要素生产率(TPF)、技术效率变化指数(TECH)以及技术进步率指数(TPCH),比较和分析了西部地区各省市资本市场促进技术创新的效率水平。运用12个省市的专利和资本市场融资面板数据建立回归方程进行验证,发现各省市资本市场在促进当地创新效率方面还不均衡;资本市场发展较好以及技术创新潜力较大、需求较高的地区,资本市场融资投入对技术创新的全要素生产率也较高。     

跨国公司的市场行为:从垄断到竞争--以汽车工业为例

20世纪90年代中期前,一些外商投资企业垄断了中国同行业市场。之后由于国内同类竞争者的形成、多家跨国公司进入、进口商品大量增加等因素的影响,跨国公司对中国市场结构的影响开始向竞争性转变。这种转变给我们的启示是:跨国公司对东道国市场结构的影响不能纯粹的界定为垄断性或竞争性;引进外资时,不必担忧跨国公司在市场上会长期处于优势地位,他们对国内企业具有带动作用。     

替代、互补及互嵌:企业与市场关系的新考察

在现实世界中,企业市场关系呈现出替代、互补及互嵌等多种特征,使得单一的“替代”说或“互补”论均缺乏足够的解释力。本文从交易费用角度将交易关系分为三种类型并指出企业和市场谁更有利于交易费用的节约,主要取决于交易品的特征以及交易本身的具体职能。企业其实是一种通过非人力资本和人力资本、人力资本和人力资本间相互交易以实现生产功能的特殊履约机制。这样就不难理解,只有部分交易可以通过企业与市场间的相互替代来提高效率,而更多的交易则须通过改善企业内部管理或改进市场制度本身来提高其效率。     

CEO社会资本对其薪酬水平和薪酬波动性的影响——公司市场价值波动性和股权集中度的调节作用

探讨了CEO的社会资本对自身薪酬水平和薪酬波动性的影响,以及公司市场价值波动性和股权集中度对这种影响关系的调节作用。利用2009—2015年德国DAX30指数企业的数据验证研究假设。结果显示:CEO的社会资本对其薪酬具有显著影响,即丰富的社会资本能够提高其薪酬水平,而且增大了薪酬波动性;上述两个正向影响受到公司市场价值波动性和公司股权集中度的调节作用,即公司市场价值波动性增强了CEO的社会资本对其薪酬波动性的影响,股权集中度则减弱了这种影响。     

Labor Mobility, Trade, and Social Capital

Labor market integration raises welfare in the absence of distortions. This paper examines labor and goods market integration in a general‐equilibrium model with social capital. The findings are: (i) labor market integration has an ambiguous impact on welfare, and raises it if the goods and labor skills are sufficiently different; (ii) compared to Pareto optimum, labor mobility (social capital) is excessively large (depleted); (iii) trade is superior to labor market integration if trading costs are no higher than private migration costs, otherwise the outcome is ambiguous; and (iv) the creation of new institutions in response to labor market integration has an ambiguous impact on welfare.     

电子商务平台上的信息不对称、交易成本与企业机制的运用

基于交易成本理论,将电子商务平台上交易的商品分为两类——物理属性标准的商品和物理属性不标准的商品,将商品信息分为两类——物理描述信息和价格信息,研究了两类商品在两类信息上存在的信息不对称问题,并对比分析了在线交易中的市场机制和企业机制。指出:在市场机制下,信誉机制和搜索排名机制能有效缓解物理属性不标准的商品在物理描述信息上的信息不对称,但无法有效缓解物理属性标准的商品在价格信息上的信息不对称,解决物理属性标准的商品的价格信息不对称需要企业机制;在电子商务平台上部分地用企业机制代替市场机制可以减少交易成本。     

Capital Trading,Stock Trading,and the Inflation Tax on Equity

A market for used capital goods, or financial instruments that represent the ownership of the used capital goods, induces inflation taxes on wealth and on the nominal income flows that they provide. This paper explicitly introduces trading in either used capital goods or financial instruments into the standard stochastic growth model with money and production. These two monetary economies are equivalent. The value of the firm is equal to the firm's capital stock divided by inflation. The resulting asset-pricing conditions indicate that the effect of inflation on asset returns differs from the effects found in the literature by the addition of a significant wealth tax. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E0, E4, E5.     

Currency Internationalization and the International Price System

Although China, now the world’s second largest economy and largest goods trading nation, has rolled out the ambitious currency internationalization protocol while maintaining strict capital controls for nearly a decade, the implications of this unique reform path on the international economy still present uncertainties. In this paper, we fill in this gap by developing a two country, two-goods model to investigate the impacts of currency internationalization on the international price system, which consists of goods market and factor market interactions. We propose a critical condition of sustainable currency internationalization and reveal high international price sensitivity to exchange rate adjustments.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data

This paper investigates pricediscrimination of German exporters across differentforeign markets. We examine the degree of pass-throughof exchange rate fluctuations in the pricing of 70export items. The model is estimated using panel dataon export unit values. Parameter estimation relies onGMM first difference, fixed effects, LAD, OLS firstdifference, and the random coefficients model. Themain results for 70 manufactured goods and 15destination countries between 1990–1994 are: Thedegree of pricing to market differs among destinationsand products. Highest pricing to market is observedfor U.S., Japan, Italy and Spain. Pricing to market ismore prevalent in exports of chemicals and fertilisersthan in machinery products.     

Effect of goods market segmentation on labor mobility: Evidence from China

This study empirically investigates the effects of goods market segmentation on interregional labor mobility using data from National Population Surveys in China. The findings reveal that a one-standard deviation increase in the goods market segmentation index reduces interprovincial migration by 4.0%. Restraining interregional trade and improving industrial specialization are the two mechanisms at work. Further analysis indicates that the restrictive effect of goods market segmentation is greater on highly educated laborers and the labor flows from poorer to richer regions. The heterogeneous analysis also implies that migrants are more concerned about educational resources and consumption diversity.     

The political economy of capital market integration and tax competition

This paper investigates the effect of capital market integration (CMI) on capital taxes in a political economy framework in which policy is influenced by lobbying of interest groups. CMI increases the efficiency cost of the capital tax, which introduces incentives to reduce the tax rate, but also reduces lobbying by owners of capitalists, which introduces countering incentives to increase the tax rate. CMI can therefore result in a higher capital tax rate. When the market share of each country is small, CMI may increase government supply of public goods and enhance efficiency, which implies that, in the presence of policy endogeneity through lobbying, decentralized policymaking can be more efficient than centralized policymaking.     

我国价格总水平决定的一个理论模型

开放经济条件下的价格总水平由产品市场、货币市场和劳动市场三个市场达到均衡状态时共同决定,影响我国价格总水平的主要因素包括货币供给量、名义工资水平、利率、汇率和资本市场发展水平。从长期来看,在其他情况不变的情况下,价格总水平随着名义货币供给量、名义工资水平、汇率以及利率的增加而上涨;推动资本市场发展对于促进价格总水平的稳定具有积极作用。     

Optimal Indirect and Capital Taxation

We consider an environment in which agents' skills are private information and follow arbitrary stochastic processes. We prove that it is typically Pareto optimal for an individual's marginal benefit of investing in capital to exceed his marginal cost of doing so. This wedge is consistent with a positive tax on capital income. We also prove that it is Pareto optimal for the marginal rate of substitution between any two consumption goods to equal the marginal rate of transformation. This lack of a wedge is consistent with uniform taxation of consumption goods within a period.