Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey

This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic.     

Agents as Empirical Macroeconomists: Thomas J. Sargent’s Contribution to Economics*

Thomas J. Sargent has fundamentally changed and, in the words of Art Rolnick, who interviewed him in 2010, “irrevocably transformed” the field of macroeconomics—whether as sole author, as co‐author with collaborators, as an author influenced by others, or as a teacher of the profession, influencing others. This paper is about his contribution to our field. The Nobel Memorial prize to Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims has been awarded for the “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” or, more broadly, for macroeconometrics. One often likes to distinguish between theorists, on the one hand, and empiricists and econometricians, on the other. Thomas J. Sargent holds a unique position in between. A key theme in a large part of his work has been to put the agents in his model on equal footing with the econometrician who is observing data from the model (i.e., to assume that agents are themselves empirical macroeconomists or macroeconometricians). In this paper, I use this theme to examine his work and his contributions to the study of economics.     

The information content of market-based measures for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: evidence from a midas analysis

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This article investigates the daily information content of market-based measures, such as inflation-linked swaps and breakeven inflation rates, for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of market-based measures when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of market-based measures. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.     

Asymmetric information in a competitive market game: Reexamining the implications of rational expectations

Summary. We examine price formation in a simple static model with asymmetric information, an infinite number of risk neutral traders and no noise traders. Here we re-examine four results associated with rational expectations models relating to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium prices, the advantage of becoming informed, the costly acquisition of information, and the impossibility of having equilibrium prices with higher volatility than the underlying fundamentals. Received: August 27, 1997; revised version: February 11, 1998     

Between mathematical formalism,normative choice rules,and the behavioural sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s

Abstract

This paper discusses why mathematical economists of the early Cold War period favored formal-axiomatic over behavioral choice theories. One reason was that formal-axiomatic theories allowed mathematical economists to improve the conceptual and theoretical foundations of economics and thereby to increase its scientific status. Furthermore, the separation between mathematical economics and other behavioral sciences was not as clear-cut as often argued. While economists did not modify their behavioral assumptions, some acknowledged the empirical shortcomings of their models. The paper reveals the multifaceted nature of rational choice theories reflected in the changing interpretations and roles of the theories in those early years.     

Preference purification and the inner rational agent: a critique of the conventional wisdom of behavioural welfare economics

Neoclassical economics assumes that individuals have stable and context-independent preferences, and uses preference satisfaction as a normative criterion. By calling this assumption into question, behavioural findings cause fundamental problems for normative economics. A common response to these problems is to treat deviations from conventional rational choice theory as mistakes, and to try to reconstruct the preferences that individuals would have acted on, had they reasoned correctly. We argue that this preference purification approach implicitly uses a dualistic model of the human being, in which an inner rational agent is trapped in an outer psychological shell. This model is psychologically and philosophically problematic.     

The notion of private information in a modern perspective: a reappraisal of Hayek's contribution

Hayek's critical attitude towards Walrasian modelling was based on informational considerations. In his view, a meaningful notion of equilbrium has to deal with the consistency of agents' plans which information is dispersed throughout the economy. He emphasized that only in this context could the role of market prices as aggregators of information be correctly analysed. Recent developments in general equilbrium theory with rational expectations have taken up the issue formally. In this paper, Haek's main ideas about the competiitive mechanism are compared with these recent results. It is argued that Hayek's notion of private information is different from that used in modern equilibrium theory, not only because of its dynamic content, as many critics observed ex post, as is usually in a general equilibrium framework. This issue of whether modern notions of private information, namel that used in conract theory, are good substitutes for Hayek' notion of personal knowledge is also examined in detail. From this analysis, it is possible to conclude that Hayek's notion of equilibrium neither entails Pareto optimality prperties nor full informational efficiency.     

The Magic of the Personal Touch: Field Experimental Evidence on Money and Appreciation as Gifts*

In this paper, we use two field experiments in professional settings to explore the effort levels of individuals in response to gifts. We extend the literature by looking at non‐financial gifts that signal worker appreciation and gifts that combine financial and non‐financial elements with or without a personal touch. We find that while money and appreciation are individually effective, these only work well together when they are combined with a personal touch. This suggests that responses to gifts are sensitive to the presentation of the gift as well as to interpersonal elements; these are factors that have so far been largely ignored in the literature but are easy to incorporate into existing principal–agent models.     

The Nature of the State and the State of Nature: a Comment on Grady & McGuire's Paper

In 'The Nature of Constitutions', Mark Grady & Michael McGuire provide a model of the evolution and purposes of constitutions as arising to minimize appropriation by dominants of subordinates. This Comment builds on Grady & McGuire's article in three ways. First, it supplements their analysis by operationalizing a model of constitutional evolution that views constitutions as arising out of the conflict of competing high-ranking individuals to preserve their own authority. From this clash of self-interest of dominant individuals, constitutions are born. This predicts that constitutions will not simply tame all forms of appropriation, but will also hard-wire some forms of appropriation behavior into the permanent constitutional structure. Second, it examines the American constitution in light of this model to show how that constitution reflects the mixture of appropriation and appropriation-taming behavior. Third, this Comment argues that the breakdown of constitutionalism in the United States this century can be explained by a failure to fully appreciate the purposes of constitutionalism in a biological framework.     

The impact of price floors on farmland investments: a real options based experimental analysis

Price floors are a common instrument for market intervention to stimulate investments. In some cases, it can be observed that a price floor does not have the stimulating effect. We experimentally analyse the investment behaviour of students who take the role of farmers. The experiment considers an investment problem under uncertainty in a ‘with price floor’ and a ‘no price floor’ treatment, stylizing a decision to take an ongoing farmland investment option. We compare the actual investment behaviour with normative benchmarks of the net present value and the real options approach. Furthermore, we look at order and learning effects. The results show that the price floor has no significant impact on the willingness to invest, whereas the effects of order were statistically significant. The investment reluctance arising from an abolishment is stronger than the investment stimulation arising from the introduction of a price floor. Furthermore, neither the net present value nor the real options approach is appropriate to predict the investment behaviour in general. Nevertheless, the predictions of the real options approach enable an approximation of the participants’ investment behaviour if the individuals have an adequate chance to learn from personal experience.     

开征物业税对土地利用效率的影响——比较静态模型的理论分析与数值模拟

文章通过引入土地国有制,土地再开发等因素建立了符合我国土地市场制度特征的土地开发和物业税模型,然后以比较静态分析和数值模拟为主要研究手段,考察了物业税对土地利用效率的影响。结论是开征物业税对土地利用效率存在负面的影响。     

The Effect of Marriage on Education of Immigrants: Evidence from a Policy Reform Restricting Marriage Migration*

We investigate the effect of immigrants’ marriage behavior on dropout from education. To identify the causal effect, we exploit a recent Danish policy reform that generated exogenous variation in marriage behavior by a complete abolishment of marriage migration for immigrants below 24 years. The reform influenced immigrants from countries with a high historical rate of marriage migration more than immigrants from country groups with a low rate. We find that the dropout rate for males increases by 25 percentage points as a consequence of marriage to a marriage migrant, whereas the effect for females is small and mostly insignificant.     

The moderating effects of gender on customer satisfaction and continuance intention in mobile commerce: a UTAUT-based perspective

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the study is to investigate the moderating effects of gender on proposed model relationships. In order to test the moderating effects of gender on the relationships of the model developed, multi-group SEM was applied. Performance expectancy was found to be the strongest predictor of satisfaction and comparative value was identified as the main driver of continuance intention. In addition, significant difference in attitudes between women and men were confirmed in the case of three out of ten effects. The originality of the study is its measurement of the moderating effects of gender on user satisfaction in relation to m-commerce and continuance intentions.     

中国金融资源配置效率不均衡对地区经济差距的影响——基于南北视角分析

为探究金融资源配置效率不均衡对地区经济差距的影响,采用我国2001—2020年间的省级数据对金融资源配置效率进行测算,基于Dagum基尼系数测度了金融资源配置效率的空间非均衡特征,通过二次指派程序（QAP）从全样本期和不同时期考察了金融资源配置效率对地区经济差距的影响,并尝试从南北视角对上述结果进行解释。本文的研究表明：我国金融资源配置效率具有明显的空间不均衡特征,表现为南高北低的“阶梯式”分布格局。全国金融资源配置效率对地区经济差距在全样本期考察和分期考察中均存在明显影响,在南北地区中,影响强度存在差异,南方地区虽更早的享受到了金融资源配置效率提高促进经济协调发展的红利,但其影响强度整体低于北方地区。