The history of economics as economics?

Abstract

This paper critically evaluates the current decline of the relationship between economics and the history of economics, and proposes a framework called the panorama-cum-scenario model for the practice of the history of economics. Starting with the Hegelian thesis that the history of economics is economics itself, the paper argues that such a relationship is necessary but not sufficient because the history of economics is a metatheory addressed to economic theory. The history of economics needs a panoramic view of the subject and a scenario for the construction, interpretation, and evaluation of the system of economics. The panorama-cum-scenario model enables us to work on the history of economics not only by historical and rational reconstruction but also by global reconstruction. Nietzsche's anti-Hegelian viewpoint and Heidegger's hermeneutical standpoint are useful for identifying the role of historical research in developing economic knowledge based on the panorama-cum-scenario model. Several approaches to the history of economics are examined in light of the panorama-cum-scenario model. Schumpeter's history of economics is interpreted as an example of the panorama-cum-scenario model.     

Corporate Control and the Decapitalization of Subsidiary Corporations: The Looting of the Bangor and Aroostook Railroad

John Rawls's A Theory of Justice is examined from the perspective of experimental methods in economics and complex adaptive systems simulations. This paper first discusses the justice principle selection process in Rawls's representation of it as a hypothetical experiment. This hypothetical experiment fails to satisfy reasonable experimental controls, particularly as reflects the conception of the individual it employs. The second section of the paper discusses the differences between Rawls's two conceptions of rational persons associated with his distinction between thin and full theories of the good. The third section uses his fuller conception of rational persons, life plans, and psychological laws in the third part of the book to offer an alternative view of the selection process understood as a complex adaptive system. The fourth section turns to a topic raised by this complex system approach, the status of normative reasoning in political-economic systems. The fifth section summarizes.     

A historiographical exhumation of J.A. Hobson's Over-Saving Thesis: General theory versus historiography

Abstract

The discussion of J.A. Hobson's understanding of over-saving has been largely confined within John Maynard Keynes' famous critique in the General Theory. I argue that gauging Hobson's contribution by ‘general theory’, that is, by an ahistorical, non-evolutionary yardstick, is to miss the larger part of Hobson's achievement. Hobson's conception of over-saving was contained within an evolving historiography of capital accumulation and took on various meanings depending on whether Hobson was discussing a competitive or monopolistic environment. I show that Keynes' ‘corrected’ version of over-saving was implicitly contained within Hobson's analysis of an evolving monopolistic industrial structure.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

Immanuel Kant and Endogenous Growth Theory

Despite the modern origins of endogenous growth theory, we argue that the ‘Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Aim’ written by Immanuel Kant in 1784 provides an early and coherent example of such a theory. Kant's endogenous growth mechanism is driven by the inherent rivalry that exists between agents which increases effort and strengthens the accumulation of knowledge, which in turn is carried through generations. In an exercise in ‘rational reconstruction’, we present a mathematical model of Kant's mechanism. We use the model to contribute to the contemporary policy debate as to whether ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ leads to excessive effort.     

Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

Instrumentalism and Economic Policy: The Quest for Reasonable Value

Neuroeconomics and behavioral economics (NEBE) is one of the most dynamic fields in contemporary economics. However, from the viewpoint of economic methodology there are still substantial reasons why NEBE is irrelevant for economic theory. This paper argues that they will only become an essential part of economics if they are embedded into a fully-fledged institutional and evolutionary paradigm. I develop a Neo-Veblenian theory of the individual that starts out from the observation that modern brain sciences do not support the notion of the brain to be an integrated and consistent rational decision apparatus. An evolutionary explanation is offered for this, which reinstates Veblen's distinction between adaptation as engineering optima and social selection. Individual identity does only emerge through communication and interaction among brains, in particular via language. The concept of the "extended brain" is proposed, which is applied to define human individuality as a social phenomenon. Thus, the systematic unity of neuroeconomics and institutional economics is established.     

EXTERNALITIES AGGREGATION IN NETWORK GAMES

We generalize the results on the monotonicity of equilibria for network games with incomplete information. We show that not only the distinction between strategic complements and strategic substitutes is important in determining the nature of the Bayesian Nash equilibria, but the nature of the statistic itself is also determinant. We show that understanding the underlying forces behind people's choices may be of fundamental importance for a policymaker that wants to incentivize efficient behavior.     

Do Financial Systems Converge?

We apply the new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007a ) on 13 financial development indices from the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure database, to test for financial system convergence across a large set of industrial and developing countries. Our results indicate that there is no convergence for either the financial systems as a whole or their main segments. Far from decreasing, the differences in the financial systems of the sample countries seemingly persist or even increase over time. These differences are more pronounced for the stock market segment and private credit by banks, and less so for the bond market segment and bank deposits. Moreover, the convergent clubs for most indices transcend the distinction industrial vs developing countries, as well as the distinction bank‐based vs capital‐market‐based financial systems.     

Overconfidence in the Markets for Lemons

We extend Akerlof's “Market for Lemons” (1970, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, 488–500) by assuming that some buyers are overconfident. Buyers in our model receive a noisy signal about the quality of the good that is on display for sale. Overconfident buyers do not update according to Bayes' rule but take the noisy signal at face value. We show that the presence of overconfident buyers can stabilize the market outcome by preventing total adverse selection. However, this stabilization comes at a cost: rational buyers are crowded out of the market.     

The notion of private information in a modern perspective: a reappraisal of Hayek's contribution

Hayek's critical attitude towards Walrasian modelling was based on informational considerations. In his view, a meaningful notion of equilbrium has to deal with the consistency of agents' plans which information is dispersed throughout the economy. He emphasized that only in this context could the role of market prices as aggregators of information be correctly analysed. Recent developments in general equilbrium theory with rational expectations have taken up the issue formally. In this paper, Haek's main ideas about the competiitive mechanism are compared with these recent results. It is argued that Hayek's notion of private information is different from that used in modern equilibrium theory, not only because of its dynamic content, as many critics observed ex post, as is usually in a general equilibrium framework. This issue of whether modern notions of private information, namel that used in conract theory, are good substitutes for Hayek' notion of personal knowledge is also examined in detail. From this analysis, it is possible to conclude that Hayek's notion of equilibrium neither entails Pareto optimality prperties nor full informational efficiency.     

Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

The critical literature on Keynes has provided extensive analysis of why individual agents may find convenient to adopt a “conventional judgement”, and what he meant by “polite techniques” used to save their faces as “rational, economic men.” This paper concentrates instead on impolite techniques of thought suited to deal with Keynesian uncertainty. The paper suggests that the thread going from Keynes's Treatise on Probability to the General Theory and its defence provides a positive analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, and that placing emphasis on this positive analysis simply means adhering to Keynes's long-standing commitment to a (surely peculiar) probabilistic set-up.     

Malthus versus Condorcet revisited

The article poses some counter-factual questions concerning the intellectual relationship between Condorcet and Malthus in the light of the latter's attack on Condorcet's Esquisse, bearing in mind the common ‘Smithian’ basis of their thinking and their background as ‘social Newtonains’ with an interest in placing the science of morals and politics on a rational basis. Malthus's reasons for opposing Condorcet's solutions to the population problem and their divergence over redistribution of income through social insurance are considered. Some stereotypical and ideological interpretations of Malthus as a bioeconomic determinist with demoralizing and reactionary tendencies are also discussed.     

Mr Keynes,the Classics and the new Keynesians: A suggested formalisation

Abstract

The paper suggests a new Keynesian model of the General Theory. A reduced form entails a diagram with three curves relating employment and the real wage, which represent the two fundamental classical postulates and the principle of effective demand. This diagram illustrates better than IS–LM the generality of Keynes's theory, clarifying the distinction between voluntary and involuntary unemployment. Other significant features are the role of the distribution of expected interest rates among heterogeneous agents, whether dispersed or concentrated, in shaping the LM curve, as well as the role of wage competitiveness constraints as a foundation of Keynes's relative wage hypothesis.     

Disequilibrium as the origin,originality, and challenges of Clower's microfoundations of monetary theory

Abstract

Robert W. Clower's article “A Reconsideration of the Microfoundations of Monetary Theory” (1967) deeply influenced the course of modern monetary economics. On the one hand, it questioned Don Patinkin's (1956) project to integrate monetary and Walrasian value theory. On the other hand, it was the fountainhead of the cash-in-advance models à la Robert J. Lucas (1980), one of the most widely used approaches to monetary theory since the 1980s. Despite this influence, Clower's project to integrate monetary and value theory remains an enigma. My paper intends to resolve it. This is a difficult task since Clower never completed the monetary theory outlined in his 1967 article. To overcome this difficulty, I characterise the intellectual context from which Clower's contribution emerged and have recourse to a reconstruction of his project. This reconstruction is based on the analysis of published and unpublished materials, written by Clower before and after the 1967 article. It is argued that Clower sought to elaborate a disequilibrium monetary theory whilst retaining the two pillars of Patinkin's integration, i.e., the introduction of money into utility functions and the real-balance effect. I trace the origins, account for the originality, and discuss the challenges of this project.     

Why rationality is not a consequence of Hume's theory of choice

This paper argues that the theory of action proposed by Hume in the Treatise does not imply that individuals are rational in the sense of modern choice theory. An individual's behaviour is non-rational if his/her choices systematically contravene the consistency axioms of the theory, and if the causal explanation of those choices cannot credibly be offered as a reason for making them. Hume proposes a theory of causal relationships between mental states, based on associations of ideas. The relationships he postulates are liable to induce various forms of non-rational behaviour, some of which have since been observed in controlled experiments.     

Geopolitics and the Vietnam War: Pyrrhic Victory's Antonym

If pyrrhic victory had an antonym, it would describe a loss with dramatic yet unanticipated benefits, a victory disguised as defeat. This essay's central assertion is the Vietnam War was a geopolitical victory for the United States. The war was a victory disguised as defeat. Nicholas Spykman's analysis of the United States' geopolitical position in America's Strategy in World Politics is applied along with older and post–Cold War Vietnam War historiography. Saul Cohen's maritime conception of the Cold War is also employed. The 1965 American ground force intervention in Vietnam geopolitically secured Indonesia in the Western strategic-economic orbit in the Cold War. The unanticipated benefit, making the Vietnam War pyrrhic victory's antonym, is the intervention's role in the movement of the Sino-American relationship from that of enemy to rapprochement to tacit alliance in the 1970s. This movement illustrates a recent historiographical assertion the war intensified communist bloc fractures beyond repair, reoriented international politics, and made a major contribution to the US Cold War victory.     

Economic Theory and Rationality: A Wittgensteinian interpretation

In this paper we invoke Wittgenstein's later philosophy to facilitate a number of methodological reflections on Paul Davidson's concept of transmutability. We argue that, while Davidson addresses the economic implications arising from his distinction between immutable and transmutable theories of external economic reality, he does not explore the more fundamental methodological implications of the concepts contained in his distinction, particularly that of transmutability. Transmutability is more fundamental and pervasive than Davidson had anticipated and presents a number of challenges to economic methodology and economic theorizing. Methodologically, the challenges require the consideration of new philosophical perspectives along with the fundamental reconsideration of widely accepted and influential modes of reasoning in economics. We respond to these challenges by invoking Wittgenstein's later philosophy to challenge the dominance of J. S. Mill's rationale for the immutability of economic laws; to motivate the empirical study of complex transformative processes; and to undermine the reductionist neoclassical theory of rationality.     

Innovation types and labour organisational practices: A comparison of foreign and domestic firms in the Reggio Emilia industrial districts

In his Theory of Economic Development, Schumpeter introduced the distinction between different innovation types. Since then, a variety of studies have addressed this topic. However, despite of the recognised significance of more de-verticalised organisational forms in shaping and directing firms' innovative performance, no attempt has been made, as far as our knowledge is concerned, to investigate whether these practices are linked to the introduction of specific innovation types. The aim of the study is to fill this gap by investigating the impact of de-verticalised forms of labour organisational practices, different modes of organising research and development activity and the nature of employees' competences on the likelihood of introducing different types of innovations, controlling for firm's size and sectoral specificities. The results obtained on a sample of 199 firms located in Reggio Emilia province in Italy confirm that innovation development is a heterogeneous activity. The empirical evidence gathered also shows that foreign and domestic firms do not differ, to some extent, in the introduction of different kinds of innovations. However, being foreign or domestic is a discriminating factor in the introduction of innovations stimulating labour organisational developments.