Patinkin as a reader of Keynes’ General Theory: Are wage cuts a good remedy to unemployment?1

Abstract

This paper analyses Patinkin's appraisal of Keynes’ concept of involuntary unemployment while focusing on his reading of the General Theory Chapter 19. On several critical issues, Patinkin departs from Keynes’ original matters of concerns. He leans against an individual criterion for unemployment and implicitly endorses Wicksell's understanding of voluntary unemployment as chosen leisure. His appraisal of involuntary unemployment as a disequilibrium phenomenon ultimately relies on nominal rigidities and assumes the existence of a competitive adjustment process. On all these three critical points, Patinkin departs from Keynes but also initiates the contemporary New Keynesian programme that went even further from Keynes.     

Patinkin,Walras and the 'money-in-the-utility-function' tradition

This paper concentrates on Patinkin's use of Walras' model in his attempt at providing a proper theory of the price of money integrated with the theory of relative prices. Patinkin stands as the last major contributor to a Walras-Hicks-Patinkin tradition based on an attempt at introducing money into the agent's utility function. More in Hicks than in Walras' footsteps, Patinkin gives a clear priority to money as a store of value over an assumed function as a means of exchange. It is also shown how confident the profession was in the early 1950s in the ability of general equilibrium to provide theoretical foundations to the neo-classical synthesis. However, the similitudes between the technique used by Walras and Patinkin are only a smokescreen behind which very different intentions are hidden.     

马克思主义与后凯恩斯主义经济增长理论比较研究*——从经济增长基本方程说起

本文从设定经济增长基本方程出发，探讨了马克思主义与后凯恩斯主义经济学构建闭合增长模型的不同思路，进而对两种增长理论进行详细的比较分析。研究发现，马克思主义与后凯恩斯主义增长理论都对收入分配给予了特别的关注，并且都坚持阶级、制度、非均衡的分析方法；然而，两者在所依据的理论基础、经济增长的最终决定因素、资本主义经济增长是否存在极限以及增长过程中的市场结构等问题上仍存在明显分歧。与后凯恩斯主义增长理论相比，马克思主义增长理论在理论基础、研究视阈及内在逻辑一致性等方面都更具优势。全面比较马克思主义与后凯恩斯主义经济增长理论对于构建中国特色发展经济学具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Keynes against Kalecki on economic method

In the past twenty years, there has been considerable debate on the “coherence” of post Keynesian economics, in view of post Keynesian economists’ ambitions to develop a paradigmatic alternative to neoclassical economics. Given the growing importance of methodological aspects in this discussion, this article addresses the differences of approach to economic theory between the fathers of the two most important strands in post Keynesian economics. We thus focus on Keynes’s criticism of Kalecki’s theory of the business cycle and the tensions between Keynes’s logical approach and Kaleki’s formal modeling. We show that in criticizing Kalecki’s theory, Keynes made use of the same methodological criticism (based on detecting logical fallacies in reasoning) he had employed to attack both the classical theory and contemporary “pseudo-mathematical” models. After illustrating these fundamental differences between Keynes and Kalecki about the proper way of doing economics, we draw some conclusions on the possible future evolution of post Keynesian economics.     

凯恩斯经济学方法的科学哲学评价

主流经济学在凯恩斯经济学形成之后,一直存在着争论,如何理解凯恩斯经济学理论的真谛,是当前研究现代经济学一个值得关注的问题,而在理解凯恩斯经济学理论中有关他的研究方法的哲学思想内涵是方法论的根本,也是构成其经济学理论的重要组成部分。本文以凯恩斯的《通论》为基础,分析凯恩斯经济学方法的哲学基础,并在方法论意义上进行了评价。分析结果表明,对于凯恩斯经济学的理解应当以全面发展的眼光看待,宏观经济学只是其理论起源的一个方面,追求经济思维的合理性和适应人类经济活动的需要是凯恩斯经济学方法论的根本。     

Theory creation and the methodological foundation of Post Keynesian economics

For the last 15 years there have been extensive discussionsabout the foundations of Post Keynesian economics. From thesediscussions, Post Keynesians have reached the consensus thattheir economics is based on a philosophical foundation of realismand critical realism. However, the methodological foundationof Post Keynesian economics, which refers to the methodologicalguidelines used for creating and developing theory, has receivedrelatively less discussion and development. The aim of thispaper is to stimulate discussion in this area by advocatingthat the method of grounded theory is consistent with criticalrealism and is a better and more developed set of guidelinesfor theory creation than the currently accepted alternatives.     

Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve

The canonical new Keynesian Phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis. However, in the basic new Keynesian model, there is no unemployment, all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin, and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers’ marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption. In this paper, we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new Keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics. We show how a traditional Phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers. We estimate on US data the Phillips curve generated by the model. While we can reject the baseline new Keynesian Phillips curve in favor of the search-frictions specification, we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms’ marginal costs.     

Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves.     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

凯恩斯革命中的创新与继承

凯恩斯革命是从理论、政策、方法三个层面展开的。货币非中性论、货币供给外生论、对萨伊定理的彻底否定构成凯恩斯革命的理论基础;财政政策和货币政策是凯恩斯革命赖以实现的政策工具;对经济学研究对象的纠偏、破除传统的两分法和首创货币经济学是凯恩斯革命赖以完成的方法论。与此同时,《通论》内在逻辑上的不一致性,与经典学派崇尚经济自由传统的趋同,决定了凯恩斯革命中的继承。由于经济运行的常态是非充分就业均衡,《通论》必然具有永恒价值。     

Uneven Development and the Destabilization of the North: a Keynesian view

Can Keynesian theory illuminate the questions of rising North–South trade in manufacturing, industrial relocation from North to South, rising wage inequality and unemployment in the North, and the consequent breakdown of Northern labour movements as effective political forces? I think so. Indeed I will argue here that the main relevance of Keynesian theory today may lie in its capacity to capture the dynamics of the North–South relationship, and especially the influence of Northern macroeconomic policy and Northern business cycles on industrial trading patters.     

Accounting for the business cycle: Nominal rigidities, factor heterogeneity, and Austrian capital theory

An Austrian interpretation of the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is proposed. Austrian and New Keynesian business cycle theories share the feature that the cycle is generated by rigidities which prevent the economy from adapting instantaneously to changing conditions. Austrian business cycle theory is capital-based, focusing on credit expansion which artificially lowers interest rates and causes an investment boom and unsustainable business expansion. In contrast, the New Keynesian small menu cost model of the business cycle is based on nominal rigidities which prevent markets from clearing. Small menu costs introduce dichotomous behavior, where firms find it locally optimal to avoid instantaneous output price adjustments in the face of the cost, but this local optimum results in economy-wide output and employment fluctuations which are much greater in relative magnitude. The small menu cost model of the business cycle is extended and reinterpreted in light of Austrian business cycle theory with heterogeneous, multiply-specific capital, thus providing a rigorous formalization of the Austrian business cycle. The Austrian interpretation of this New Keynesian model fortuitously addresses several of its shortcomings. JEL classification B53, E12, E23, E32     

The contemporary money-supply paradigm: Friedman and Patinkin

The contemporary money-supply paradigm is summarized in the expression M = mB. Friedman and Patinkin formulate money-supply models of that genre. This paper shows that their two models are identical. The underlying bases (i.e., the view of the role of economic theory) on which each is formulated are different, and this provides part of the explanation of why the same formal result has gone unrecognized.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Keynes' Monetary Thought:A Study of its Development. By Don Patinkin     

后凯恩斯主义经济学的货币非中性理论

后凯恩斯主义经济学的突出贡献是将凯恩斯关于不确定性和货币非中性思想发展为一个完整的关于货币非中性的理论框架,它强调无论是长期还是短期,货币都是影响真实部门的一个重要因素。后凯恩斯主义的货币理论在凯恩斯的灵活偏好理论中加入融资性需求,这样就必然导致存量和流量的矛盾,从而造成利息率的不确定性和波动性;从不同角度分析了货币的创造过程,提出了内生货币供给理论。这一理论完全是与主流经济学所信奉的货币数量论对立的,从而拒绝资本主义经济自然趋于长期充分就业均衡的概念。     

哈耶克对凯恩斯有关通货膨胀理论的批判及其启示

在全球应对金融海啸初见成效之时,国内外无论政府还是学界都对通货膨胀存在一定预期。本文通过对哈耶克有关文献的梳理,站在哈耶克立场上着重对凯恩斯通货膨胀的性质、形式及后果进行了批判。剖析了人为的、只重视结果的凯恩斯通货膨胀理论在经济和政治层面可能造成的后果,并运用哈耶克理论为中国预防通货膨胀从心理、政治和现实三个方面提供了思想资源。     

Pasinetti,Keynes and the multiplier

This paper explores the relationship between the Keynesian multiplier and Pasinetti's model of pure production. Key assumptions of Pasinetti's model are its multisectoral structure, the definition of all income as a reward to labouring activities and, as a consequence, the operation of a pure labour theory of value. A translation between these models is effected by introducing investment as an exogenous determinant. By drawing from Keynes to apply his concept of the wage unit, it is possible to aggregate from Pasinetti's multisectoral model to a genuinely macroeconomic multiplier. This provides a way of using the scalar Keynesian multiplier without making the restrictive one-commodity assumption. In addition, this formal demonstration enhances our understanding of the relationship between the wage unit and the labour theory of value. Finally, critics have argued that Pasinetti downgrades the importance of institutional analysis; in contrast, the derivation of a scalar Keynesian multiplier contributes to an understanding of how relevant Pasinetti's approach is to the analysis of a monetary production economy.     

Keynesian Policy in Disarticulated Economies

Keynesian theory is, for several reasons, a weak basis for development policy. This paper argues fundamental obstacles to the construction of a coherent Keynesian development theory are the disarticulation of developing economies and the problem of economic sovereignty.     

A critique of Powell, Woods, and Murphy on the 1920�C1921 depression

A series of recent reviews of the depression of 1920?C1921 by Austrian School and libertarian economists have argued that the downturn demonstrates the poverty of Keynesian policy recommendations. However, these writers misrepresent important characteristics of the 1920?C1921 downturn, understating the actions of the Federal Reserve and overestimating the relevance of the Harding administration??s fiscal policy. They also engage a caricatured version of Keynesian theory and policy, which ignores Keynes??s views on the efficacy of nominal wage reductions and the preconditions for monetary and fiscal intervention. This paper argues that the government??s response to the 1920?C1921 depression was consistent with Keynesian recommendations. It offers suggestions for when Austrian School and Keynesian economics share common ground and argues that the two schools come into conflict primarily in downturns where nominal interest rates are low and demand is depressed. Neither of these conditions held true in the 1920?C1921 depression.     

To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in separate, sometimes unsequential, chapters. The connection between the short run and the long run is not apparent. The author builds a bridge between the neoclassical growth theory and the Keynesian model. He links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short-run to long-run transition of the economy after changes in saving and other macroeconomic policies.