Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

The legacy of the past: ancient economic thought on wealth and development

Ancient economic thought was in general hostile to enrichment and saw wealth as inner wealth. This attitude was coherent with an economy mainly closed and static, based on agriculture and on slave work. But also it greatly contributed to restrain economic development in ancient societies. Ancient economic thought had an enormous influence on early modern thought. The latter borrowed its hostility from enrichment, which contradicted the real tendency of the new society. Thus, from the beginning, modern economy could not enjoy the support of a high economic theory. It could not legitimate enrichment and the increase in consumption.     

Federalism and Conflicts over Principalship. Some Insights into the American Constitutional History

The article provides an economic interpretation of Kelsen's theory of decentralized governments. It helps to distinguish different forms of federalism and in particular the corresponding conflicts of principalship inside the governmental structure. The model is applied to the early American constitutional history and shows how opposed views of agency relationships in the constitution foreshadowed what would later end up in a civil war.     

An assessment of polish economic development in the 1970's

The economic policy of the Gierek administration is examined alongside the economic performance of the Polish economy in the 1970's. From very favourable economic circumstances in the early seventies the authorities encouraged a consumption and investment boom of which they soon lost all control. Sharp reversals in economic policy were later applied in order to deal with the chronic macroeconomic disequilibrium produced by the uncontrolled expansion. Policy zigzags have resulted in a highly disorganised economy increasingly ‘managed’ in an arbitrary way by central directive. The period was one of costly mistakes and lost opportunities.     

PUBLIC ENTERPRISES IN TURKEY*

ABSTRACT: Public enterprises have played a distinct role in promoting economic development and have been instrumental in initiating the industrialization of Turkey, and in facilitating its balanced regional development, especially during the early stages of its economic development. However, since the late 1960s, public enterprises have been a drag on the economic performance of the country because of the economic problems they have caused. In response to the problems associated with public enterprises, privatization entered the political arena in the early 1980s. The Turkish government has now adopted a timetable to privatize the public enterprises. In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the place and the weight of the public enterprises and their problems in the Turkish economy.     

The Production Boundary Reconsidered

Hill and Hawrylyshyn rediscovered a classical contribution made by Margaret Reid as early as 1934, known now as the “third party criterion.” The general production boundary in SNA 1993 is defined by using this criterion. They considered that the property of “delegability” was the key to the concept of economic production. That is, an activity is called production in an economic sense if it can be delegated to another economic unit. The author calls due attention to the fact that the SNA includes another criterion, which he tentatively calls “World 1 criterion” meaning that an activity is called economic production only when it is a physical process, where the term World 1 is due to Karl Popper. It is claimed that this criterion can generate a more appropriate general production boundary for the SNA if it is used with “role‐exchangeability” criterion, another new criterion.     

基于Rough Set的经济预警的规则提取

通过分析影响宏观经济预警的主要因素,运用Rough Set理论,对建立的宏观经济预警分类决策表进行知识表达系统的简化,提取决策规则,得出影响经济预警结果的重要因素,有助于对经济的发展状况进行科学的预测.同时以安徽省近15年的分类实际数据为例,进行了实证分析,证明了该方法的切实可行性.     

Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID-19 breakout

How does a new epidemic affect individuals' expectations on economic prospects in the early stage of the breakout? We implemented an incentivized longitudinal online survey soon after the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China to answer this question. Results show that fewer new confirmed COVID-19 cases significantly increase individuals' expectations on gross domestic product and consumer price index growth rates. Our finding provides evidence that at the early stage of an unfamiliar epidemic, containing the spread of the disease may help to maintain positive economic expectations among individuals.     

我国金融风险预警模型的建立与实证研究

在系统学习国内外现有金融风险预警模型的基础上,结合我国经济金融运行实情,构建符合中国国情的金融风险预警模型。通过对模型的预测能力进行检验,可以对未来我国金融风险进行全面预警判断和实时预警分析,从而为构建金融风险预警系统提供判别基准。     

The Role of Trade and International Economic Policy in Indian Economic Performance*

India's economic policies have undergone major reforms since the early 1990s. Before that, government regulation and control of economic activity was pervasive, and the trade sector did very poorly. One consequence was that imports were highly restricted and their scarcity was itself a major constraint on growth. After the crisis of the early1990s, trade policy was substantially liberalized. In this paper, the pre‐1990s regime is first briefly described. Thereafter, the economic policy reforms that impinged most directly on the trade sector are set forth, and the response of exports and imports to those changes is outlined. Exports have grown rapidly, from about 5% of the gross domestic product to around 15%, and they continue to grow at an average annual rate of 20%. Improved performance of the trade sector has been a major contributing factor to India's dramatically accelerated growth performance. A final section of this paper assesses the current situation, and sets forth the major policy challenges that will need to be met if that performance is to be sustained, if not improved upon.     

Early Starts,Reversals and Catch‐up in the Process of Economic Development*

Early states like China and India have been experiencing more rapid economic growth in recent decades. We show that more rapid growth by early starters has been the norm in economic history, and that the “reversal of fortune” associated with the European overseas expansion was both exceptional and temporary. Not only was the post‐1500 reversal in the process of being reversed after 1960, but also the advantage conferred by early development in the latter period was considerably greater than the growth rate disadvantage that it conferred during 1500–1960, implying a rapid undoing of the first reversal.     

Evolution and the growth process: Natural selection of entrepreneurial traits

This research suggests that a Darwinian evolution of entrepreneurial spirit played a significant role in the process of economic development and the dynamics of inequality within and across societies. The study argues that entrepreneurial spirit evolved non-monotonically in the course of human history. In early stages of development, risk-tolerant, growth promoting traits generated an evolutionary advantage and their increased representation accelerated the pace of technological progress and the process of economic development. In mature stages of development, however, risk-averse traits gained an evolutionary advantage, diminishing the growth potential of advanced economies and contributing to convergence in economic growth across countries.     

Understanding political−economic development in the American South

We propose an empirical strategy to adjudicate between competing explanations of political–economic development in the American South. This strategy evaluates the dynamic relationship between partisan control of representative institutions and economic performance, both before and after major partisan realignment forces and economic conditions had structurally transformed the American South. The political–economic development of low‐capacity Southern states since the early 1980s reflects a “virtuous cycle” of rising income growth and partisan balance of state legislatures mutually reinforcing one another. These findings reconcile conflicting claims regarding the catalytic nature of political–economic development coevolution in the American South and have broader implications for the study of comparative political–economic development.     

Gender Pay and Occupational-Attainment Gaps in Costa Rica and El Salvador: A Relative Comparison of the Late 1980s

This study investigates gender occupational attainment and earnings differentials in El Salvador and Costa Rica at the end of the 1980s. During this decade, El Salvador experienced a civil war and an economic depression. Costa Rica was also mired in a recession in the early 1980s, but programs adopted in the mid-1980s led to rapid economic recovery. It is found that the gender pay gap in El Salvador is 30.4% and 23.6% in Costa Rica. The intercountry difference in the gap disappears after accounting for high gender differences in occupational attainment and hours worked in El Salvador.     

新古典宏观经济学的经济周期理论述评

二十世纪七十年代初,凯恩斯主义经济学在受到经济实践批判的同时,新古典宏观经济学也指出了其理论的缺陷,并以此为基础构建其宏观经济学的微观基础,即经济主体的理性原则、理性预期、市场出清,建立了货币经济周期理论和实际经济周期理论,否定政府政策的有效性,反对政府干预,力图完成其对凯恩斯主义经济学全面彻底的批判。     

Income inequality and economic growth

Despite the extensive existing literature on income inequality and economic growth, there remains considerable disagreement on the effect of inequality on economic growth. Existing literatures find either a positive or a negative relationship. In this paper, we attempt to theoretically examine that relationship with a stochastic optimal growth model. We make the disagreement clear within a single model. We conclude (i) that both are possible – that is, higher inequality can retard growth in the early stage of economic development, and can encourage growth in a near steady state, (ii) that income redistribution by high income tax does not always reduce income inequality. Income inequality can be reduced by higher income tax in a near steady state, but it cannot be reduced in the early stage of economic development, and (iii) that two government polices – rapid economic growth and low income inequality – can be achieved by low income tax in the early stage of economic development, but both cannot be achieved simultaneously in a near steady state.     

Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book

This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume.     

Transition economies in the Middle East: the Syrian experience

There have been no in-depth studies of the post-socialist transition in the Middle East. Syria’s experience is a useful one to explore given its historically important role in the region and its distinctive characteristics. The Syrian economic transition, from the early 1990s to 2011, was in two phases: an incremental liberalisation phase and a transition to a social market economy phase. During both phases, Syrian policymakers showed a preference for a gradualist approach to economic transition, rather than a big-bang approach. This was facilitated by oil revenues and subsidies from the Gulf States. The Syrian experience therefore has its own distinct characteristics, as well as elements in common with the transitions in other post-socialist economies.     

Growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development

This study examines (1) whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and (2) if it does, whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development. Leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth. In addition, the natural and heritage-related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible. This notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development. Thus, the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism. As an economy grows, the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry. The empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development, but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops.