Economic Viewpoint The Shape of the UK Recovery

Monthly economic data combined with the more optimistic tone of CBI and other surveys suggest that the recession may be drawing to a close. By the early summer it was becoming apparent that output was no longer falling; now it appears that the economy is in transition front the 'bumping along the bottom' phase, which lasted through the summer months, to the beginnings of a modest recovery in output and demand. The focus of interest is therefore switching away front the timing of recovery towards its shape and strength.
We have previously argued that the recovery would be led by consumer spending, that industry would not resume investment spending un ti1 demand elsewhere was picking up, and that although exports have held up remarkably well, taking some of the strain of the downturn in domestic demand, there was little prospect of a surge in world trade to provide the pre-conditions for an export-led recovery. What was and is needed is a recovery in consumer confidence, with a willingness to borrow at lower interest rates showing up in a reduction in the personal savings ratio.
But the recovery starts with the personal sector still having a large debt overhang from the 1988-9 boom, which will inevitably inhibit new borrowing. Meall while the credit crunch is restricting the ability of banks to lend. Together these imply only a limited response to the interest rate cuts of the last year and would, in the absence of the EMS link with high German interest rates, argue for further interest rate reductions. But high post-unification German rates put a floor under UK rates and will slow the recovery. The economy will do little more in 1992 than make up for the output losses of 1991 and our forecast (as in June) suggests that it will not be until 1993 that previous output peaks are passed and unemployment is stabilized.     

Company Sector

The latest national accounts data suggest that the corporate sector is still playing very little part in the recovery. Though business investment rose by 2% in Q3 2013, it remained more than 5% lower than a year before and is still 24% lower than the early‐2008 peak…     

Economic Viewpoint

The search for a policy device which will yield the benefits of monetary discipline without the pain is as old as it is fruitless, and the central message of this Economic Viewpoint is that going into the EMS will not provide a magic answer to our problems. However we believe that if we go into the EMS at today's rate, and pursue monetary policies consistent with maintaining that rate, the authorities' target of 3 per cent inflation by 1988 is well within reach… Our analysis of the experience of other countries, inside and outside the EMS, over the floating rate period suggests that membership of the EMS should also reduce exchange rate fluctuations and help to create a more stable environment for business planning. However, sterling's vulnerability to oil-related fluctuations cannot be eliminated just by joining the EMS. We therefore suggest that an oil bond, which capitalises the value of our North Sea assets, is created and sold to our EMS partners, thus equalising the exposure to fluctuations in oil prices and removing one major cause of exchange rate instability.     

Economic Sector Stabilization

Using a dynamic competitive disequilibrium model this paper determined that centrally directed sector resource stabilization or planning probably could not shorten the time for a developed economy to reach equilibrium. This is due to the disaggregation of data available centrally, an old concern. Therefore, the old issues of freedom and corruption under planning appear moot.     

Economic Viewpoint:The Medium-term Financial Strategy

A medium-term financial plan was proposed in the October 1977 Economic Outlook. The essential idea was that the government should show that its plans for public expenditure and revenue were consistent with the objective of reducing monetary growth and thereby the rate of inflation in the medium term. The Budget speech of March 26 introduced a Medium-term Financial Strategy. (The word "Plan" is politically unacceptable.) This Viewpoint evaluates the strategy and considers some of the criticisms that have been made of it.     

Economic Viewpoint: The real wage debate

Why is unemployment so high in Britain? Is it because demand is too weak or is it because real wages are too high? Many participants in the debate are trying to insist that it must be one or the other. In practice it is perfectly sensible to believe that both causes are involved, so that a fall in unemployment will require both a rise in demand and a fall in real wages. In this Economic Viewpoint we discuss the economic analysis involved; we investigate some of the relevant evidence and we explore some policy options.     

经济集聚与服务业的发展

服务业的发展,不仅可以缓解我国就业压力,而且还有助于优化经济结构,有利于促进产业结构的升级.然而,我国服务业发展相对滞后.很多研究者对这一现象进行了深入地研究,并提出一些有价值的政策建议.本文研究经济集聚对服务业发展的影响.在理论分析中,我们得到了这样的结论:经济集聚程度加强可以促进服务业的发展.用广东省21个地级市2001-2007年的非平衡面板数据所做的实证研究支持了这一结论.这说明.推动经济活动在空间上的集聚可以有效地促进各个地区服务业的发展.     

Economic Viewpoint: Economic Models and Economic Forecasting: Ptolemaic or Copernican?

Economic forecasters have come in for a lot of criticism in recent months. But this is not new. The failure to predict the boom in 1988 and ensuing inflation and balance of payments problems led to some serious re-examination of the structure of the main macroeconometric models in the UK. The speed with which the UK economy moved into sharp recession in the second half of 1990- also appeared to catch most forecasters on the hop. This Briefing Paper is not directly about forecasting; it is about macroeconometric models. However, forecasting provides by far the most extensive use of these models. Not all macroeconomic forecasters use a formal econometric model - some City economists find a spreadsheet more than adequate - but those that do find that they are an invaluable aid to clear thinking and provide an effective way of filtering all of the information that is available, in one form or another, about the economy. This paper was originally intended to provide a retrospective review of the development of UK macro-models since the late 1970s, coinciding broadly with my period at London Business School. However, it became clear that there was a need to argue more generally in favour of macro-modelling, given the numerous assaults that this activity has sustained over the last 15 years. I want to demonstrate that the conduct of research in this area - at the very least in the UK - has been, and continues to be, a progressive research strategy in the sense in which philosophers of science use this term. I believe that macro-modellers, because they have an obligation to forecast and to make the forecast public, are closer to how theoretical constructs in economics conflict with the observation of economic events, and provide a more robust testing ground for economic theories than the relatively narrow - though very important - confines of single equation statistical testing, that dominate academic journals. This should not mean that every new theoretical idea should be expected to be able to survive immediately the rigours of testing within an existing macro-model. One of the attractions of recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been an explicit attempt to seek to try to reconcile macroeconomics with micro-economic reasoning and to derive macroeconomic principles from how rational, maximizing individuals can be expected to behave in a market economy. There is always a need periodically to re-examine the basic postulates of any area of economics, especially one such as macroeconomics, which provides the basis for the conduct of national and international economic policy, and for providing explanations for economic cycles. Macro-econometric model building is a worthwhile exercise because it confronts theoretical models of how the macro-economy is supposed to work with the hard lessons of experience. The use of these models for forecasting is therefore crucial to their continued growth and development.     

建筑垃圾资源化的经济效益研究

根据对建筑材料生命周期的分析,利用物料守恒的原理考虑了材料损耗,计算了建筑物在整个寿命周期所产生的建筑垃圾,利用建筑垃圾的运输费用、处理费用、资源化后再利用所节省的成本以及政府的补贴等计算建筑垃圾资源化的成本,与建筑垃圾直接舍弃的成本相比较,判断建筑垃圾资源化的经济效益高低。     

油气回收技术的经济性分析

由于原油及成品油的蒸发损耗造成油料数量减少、油品质量降低、潜在火灾隐患、环境污染等一系列问题,在环境保护和节约能源的要求下,油气回收技术已成为公众关注的热点。介绍了四种油库用油气回收的技术工艺,并通过对回收工艺进行经济性分析,为是否进行油气回收的改造提供了依据。