物价上涨对不同收入群体消费支出的影响分析——以广东省为例

为了考察物价上涨对居民生活的影响,本文以广东省为例,从短期和长期两个方面对不同收入层城镇居民的消费支出变动情况进行了实证分析。结果表明,从短期看,物价上涨使城镇不同收入层居民的消费支出出现不同程度的增加,但低收入层居民消费性支出的增长幅度最大,普遍高于其他收入层居民。从长期看,物价上涨对城镇不同收入层居民消费支出的影响方向和程度不尽相同,其中使低收入户、中低收入户和高收入户的支出增加,而使中等收入户和中高收入户的支出减少。但是,无论是从长期还是从短期看,物价上涨对低收入户的影响最大,其消费性支出的增长幅度均高于其他收入群体的支出增长幅度。     

The Revenue Adequacy of Site Value Taxation in a Ricardian System of Economic Growth

A bstract . The federal administration has sought to reduce the growth of federal expenditures by shifting some government costs to state and local governments. An increased expenditure burden for the latter governments would require increased tax rates for existing types of taxes that have adverse impacts on economic incentives. Land taxes are considered as a source of revenue because of their efficiency aspects. Unfortunately this idea is all too often dismissed because of alleged revenue inadequacy. Thus an analysis is called for of the revenue adequacy of site value taxation in a Ricardian model of economic growth. The model allows analysis of revenue adequacy over time in an economic growth context that is suited for the long range tax-expenditure planning horizon with which local governments are faced. When revenue needs are primarily dependent upon the population size, and the fisc is initially operating at a deficit, for a land tax to permit attainment of balance, per capita rents must be increasing over time. Also when the economy's public service demand is primarily dependent upon income, deficits will not occur if rental share exceeds the share of income devoted to public output. Not all income goes to fiscal output, so rent eventually exceeds expenditures.     

Infrastructure and Performance of the Italian Economic System

This paper aims to analyze the consequences for the Italian economy of the recently started process of modernization and extension of the country's infrastructure. The planned measures are expected to increase the competitiveness of Italian businesses, and to improve the quality of life. In the short term, investments in infrastructure will increase the construction sector's production and, consequently, activate income and employment multipliers. The Italian economic system being highly differentiated from a territorial viewpoint, the impact of new investments on its economic system has been analyzed by means of a biregional model that accounts for the peculiar productive structure of the 20 Italian regions.     

坚持价值思维和效益导向 为企业做好开源节流

研究目的:坚持价值思维和效益导向,为企业做好开源节流,实现企业经营管理中的效益最大化是河北大唐国际新能源有限公司当前一项紧迫而重要的任务。方法:创新思维、实际求证。结果:通过价值思维和效益导向转化为行动上开源节流,为企业实现利益最大化。结论:只有坚持价值思维和效益导向,不断增强广大干部职工的市场意识、竞争意识、效益意识,用科学的思维观、效益观指导经营管理的实践,不断深挖潜力,采取多种措施开源节流,增收节支,促进公司经营管理的实际问题的解决,才能使企业的盈利能力、竞争能力、可持续发展能力不断增强。     

上市公司股利水平比较分析——基于石化行业的实践

本文对沪深股市石化行业股利进行分析后发现,石化行业上市公司的股利水平总体上高于国内股市的平均水平和欧美市场的整体水平,但低于亚洲市场的整体水平和整个国际市场的平均水平。从行业内部看,石化行业上市公司的股利水平因所在地区不同、股本规模不同、每股收益不同和负债水平不同而存在差异。经济较发达地区、股本规模较大、每股收益较高、负债水平较低的上市公司,其股利总体水平也较高。     

Regional trade and foreign currency regimes among the former Soviet Republics

The paper examines the problems arising from the adoption of national currencies in former Soviet Republics, and advances proposals to avoid excessive trade and output contractions. The move towards national currencies in many republics — though politically unavoidable and economically efficient in the medium term — is seen as having disruptive effects on interrepublican trade in the short term, with heavy losses of incomes and employment, which add to the costs of market transition. Mutual convertibility among the new currencies could allow some of the negative consequences on trade and production to be overcome, while in the event of mutual currently inconvertibility the effects on interrepublic trade could be disastrous and only some form of payments agreement could reduce the magnitude of the contraction. An intermediate currency regime which could sustain the level of income and employment would be based on the use of the Russian rouble as a regional means of payment. Such an event, however, would require as a pre-condition the stabilization of the Russian currency.     

The real effects of inflation in a developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk

In this paper we develop an intertemporal optimizing model to examine the real effects of inflation induced by monetary policy in an open developing economy with external debt and sovereign risk. The economy faces an upward sloping supply curve of debt. In our model, households require real balances in advance for consumption expenditures, and monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. We show that an increase in the inflation rate leads to a decrease in the stock of foreign debt. It also leads to a decrease in consumption, employment, capital accumulation and output in the long run. Our results show that the accumulation of foreign debt exhibits non-monotonic adjustment. Particularly, an increase in the inflation rate leads to a current account surplus followed by a deficit. Along with this non-monotonicity, our model also explains the positive correlation between savings and investment during the transitional periods (Feldstein–Horioka puzzle).     

Accounting for Public Recreation Expenditures

A bstract . Understanding why local parks and recreation budgets are set at particular levels is an interesting but difficult area in which to conduct research. In order to help clarify some of the important ideas, 22 hypotheses are developed and tested, correlating for 103 United States cities , the relationships of dependent variables (city's total recreation budget, recreation as a percent of total expenditure and recreation expenditure per capita) to selected sets of urban variables identified as demographic, labor force structure, local income, and public service variables. Results of the analysis suggest that the size of park budgets is positively associated with pet cent of population Non-White, birth, death and marriage rates, crime rates, non-agricultural employment , white collar employment, and income growth. Variables inversely related to budgets include the percent of lower to middle income groups and expenditures for education.     

Regional factor specificity,wage differential and resource allocation

We developed a two-region, rigid-wage model incorporating features of a region-specific factor (in addition to the primary inputs) and an inter-regional wage differential. While full employment of capital is always maintained, labor, however, is subject to unemployment in both regions because of wage rigidity. The model was deployed to examine the effects of a change in the specific factor and a non-specific factor on regional resource allocation, output production and total employment. It is demonstrated that an increase in the factor specific to region 1 will result in a reallocation of resources from the second region to the first region and a decrease in the capital rentals in both regions. Thus, the output production will expand in region 1 at the expense of that in region 2. However, total employment in the nation may increase or decrease depending on whether or not the production in the second region is relatively capital intensive.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

The New Year has started with a burst of enthusiasm in UK asset markets. The stock market has reached an all-time high and the pound has recovered from the sub-1.50 and DM2.40 lows that it hit in the aftermath of its exit from the ERM last September. There are external reasons for the buoyant start to 1993, namely the exposure of UK companies to the us economy where recovery seems assured, and the desire to park short-term funds outside the EMS where renewed turmoil greeted the start of the New Year. But over and above this, hopes have risen that the worst of the UK downturn may be over, that recession is at last ending and recovery beginning. It is this question that we examine here.
We have argued before that the recession will not be over in any meaningful sense until the level of output tops the pre-recession peak of the second quarter of 1990, output growth returns to its trend rate of 2-2.5per cent and unemployment starts falling, But in a more limited sense we can ask whether output has stopped falling and whether a recovery in output is under way. Specifically we may ask whether, when the CSO comes to date the trough of the recession, it will be put in 1992 or whether it is still ahead of us in 1993.
In answer to this last question, we find that the trough of the recession may have occurred as long ago as April 1992. If so, the initial recovery phase has been feeble to say the least - there is almost no hard data yet showing a recovery in output. What is evident - and it is on this that market enthusiasm is based - is that (consumer) demand is rising slowly. The hope is that the increase in demand will be sustained, and that a recovery in output will follow.     

Estimation of data measured with error and subject to linear restrictions

Variables are often measured subject to error, whether they are collected as part of an experiment or by sample surveys. A consequence of this is that there will be different estimates of the same variable, or, more generally, linear restrictions which the observations should satisfy but fail to. With knowledge of the variances of the various observations, it has been shown elsewhere that maximum-likelihood estimates of the observations can be produced. This paper shows how, given a sequence of such observations, estimates can be produced without knowledge of data reliabilities. The method is applied to estimates of constant price US GNP. It suggests that 64 per cent of the discrepancy should be attributed to the expenditure estimate, with only 36 per cent going to the income/output estimate. The current method of presentation, on the other hand, places the whole of the error in the income/output estimate.     

Using a Demand System to Estimate Extended Input–Output Multipliers

The interface between household income and expenditure has always been considered to be a key component in the construction of input–output models. However, it can be argued that households are too often treated as if they were just another in dustry in the input–output table. In this paper, we seek to address this problem by developing a new modelling framework in which a micro demand system is used to estim ate the relationship between income and expenditure. This demand system is conjoined with an input–output table for the UK economy, and the system as a whole is solved as a computable general equilibrium model. Comparisons are made between the Jacobian multipliers generated by this model and those derived from a more traditional input–output model in which the income-expenditure linkage is estimated using static coefficients.     

Income and Expenditure Switching Among the Impoverished During Structural Adjustment in India1

The impoverishment during 1991–1993 was largely a result of policy reforms. In the absence of income switching, the impoverishment would have been greater. The patterns of income switching differed among the three Indian states, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Confining the analysis to household expenditure on food, medical care and education, however, little, if any, expenditure switching occurred. To some extent, the effects of household expenditure cuts were compounded by cuts in public expenditure. But, given the aggregate expenditure categories, there is a risk of overstating the effects on the poor. A more fundamental concern nonetheless remains. Given the acute deprivation of a large segment of the rural population, it is imperative that public provision of basic goods and services is strengthened. A case in point is the public distribution system for food (PDS). Despite the revamping, the benefits to the poor have not increased while the subsidy has. Short of drastic reforms, it is unlikely that the cost-effectiveness of the PDS will improve.     

The Changing Structure of the UK Economy: Implications for the Current Account

In common with other developed countries, the UK has seen the relative importance of the service sector grow, accounting for an ever greater share of employment and output — a trend that has accelerated over recent decades. At the same time, globalisation means that international trade is of increasing importance as a share of UK expenditure. With the traded goods sector dwindling in importance, what are the implications for the current account? This paper examines the changing structure of the UK economy and prospects for the current account. Although the current account is expected to remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, the size of the deficit is likely to remain manageable as growing surpluses from trade in services and investment income offset a widening goods deficit.     

Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics

The trade-off between military expenditure and public health spending has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This paper investigates whether military expenditure has crowded out public health spending in 116 countries (including a subsample of 87 non-OECD countries) over the period 2000–2017. Through our system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimations, we find that military expenditure, whether it is measured on a per-capita basis or as a proportion of total government expenditure, has a positive impact on the demand for health care. Nonetheless, we find a significant crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending by taking into account government fiscal capacity. The evidence we present supports the long-standing view that military expenditure has a particular ability to compete government financial resources away from publicly funded health spending. By interacting the military expenditure variable with income per capita, we find that an increase in income per capita has neutralized the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending – less well-off countries stand to suffer most, and wealthy ones stand to suffer least, from the crowding-out effect. The crowding-out effect is statistically more specific to middle- and low-income countries in our samples.

     

Innovate or perish: A cautionary tale

Post war business has seen the emergence of a number of conglomerates that showed impressive growth in their early days. Recently, however, several of these conglomerates have entered into serious difficulties, sometimes resulting in complete company collapse. Of course many factors will have featured in these dramatic events, but it is felt that the neglect of innovation and a preoccupation with financial data may have been predominant in certain cases.In this paper a hypothetical conglomerate is constructed and the (fictitious) history is described which brought this conglomerate to the verge of collapse. The question posed is whether a sound rescue operation for the conglomerate in question is possible, and this question is answered in the affirmative. The strategy for this operation (apart from obvious short term measures) centres around a long term product innovation program. It is shown that if such a program is stringently adhered to a healthy company may emerge in the end, but the operation takes quite a long time (from 5 to 10 years) and the first 4 years of the program will be very difficult indeed. The necessary change in strategy is a very fundamental one and amongst the major problems in its execution will be finding an able top executive capable of managing such a long-term innovative program. The financing of such a program will require the utmost restraint on the part of the company with regard to its other expenditures and a suggestion is made to help solve this facet of the problem. The difficulties to be overcome will be tremendous, but success does seem possible. After all, there is hardly any alternative for the conglomerate that has to make an ultimate decision: innovate or perish.     

Interregional economic-demographic model of the Tokyo region

The Tokyo Metropolitan Area consists of four prefectures, and experienced a rapid social inflow of population from other areas in 1960s, and a removal of residential population from CBD to suburban cities within the Area in 1970s. Tokyo prefecture at the centre functioned as CBD, and showed a continuous growth of economic activities, while the leading sector changed from secondary to tertiary sector. The number of daily commuters to Tokyo prefecture has increased to two million persons. Thus in the Tokyo prefecture several variables like social inflow, employment in secondary sector and residential population reached to historical highest values in late 1960s and early 1970s, An economic-demographic model is constructed by pooling data of four prefectures for 1965–1979 to describle these rapid changes in four prefectures.

The model consists of seven blocks (population, commutation, employment, production, income and expenditure, capital stock, price) and contains 142 equations. Social movement of residential population is explained by per capita income, housing stock, endowment of social overhead capital, and land price. Daily commuters are explained by labor productivities. Private and public investments are endogenously explained in the model. Potential type variables of income and population are used to describe the interregional linkages in various equations. After final test the model could properly explain the turning point period of Tokyo, and drastic changes of Metropolitan Area. The model is then applied to the forecast up to 1990, and several simulation studies to clarify various policy effects.     

中等收入家庭的综合理财规划方案

蒋女士为H省直高校的教师,收入稳定,丈夫马先生为某企业的土建工程师,家庭年度有9万结余,再过4个月家庭将有新成员加入,是典型的形成期过渡到成长期的家庭。本理财规划方案基于蒋女士家庭基本状况及财务状况基础上,编制出其家庭资产负债表和月、年收入支出表,分析家庭财务状况、并查找问题,分析其家庭现阶段资产配置的不妥之处,并给出相应的规划建议。     

持续盈余与盈余质量的相关性研究——来自中国股票市场的经验证据

持续盈余是指公司的会计盈余在较长时期内保持连续增长的特殊表现形式。本文选取上市公司中连续5年盈余增长的样本为研究对象,以盈余持续性和盈余反应系数作为盈余质量的测度,结果发现,盈余持续增长的公司具有更高的盈余质量,而当盈余持续增长主要来源于主营业务收入持续增长时,盈余质量更高。