浅析日本泡沫经济的形成原因及其启示

日本在上世纪的80年代后期经历了泡沫经济的形成和破灭,其教训深刻。本文旨在分析日本泡沫经济的形成原因,并在此基础之上探讨其对我国经济管理的启示。     

The Role of Interregional Trade in Generating Change in the Regional Economies of Japan, 1980-1990

An earlier analysis (Hewings et al., 1998) revealed the 'hollowing-out' process, a decrease in the level of intraregional intermediation, in the Chicago economy during the period 1975-2011. The main force underlying this structural change has been the change in regional trade patterns in a way that interregional trades across economies has replaced the local purchases of intermediate inputs. The issue addressed in this paper focuses on the decomposition of structural change into changes in interregional trade and in technology, in order to investigate the nature of structural change over time and across sectors. The empirical realization is provided by reference to a series of regional input-output tables for a nine-region division of the Japanese economy (1980-1985-1990). The results revealed that interregional trade has played a key role in determining regional output level while technology itself had a tendency to decrease further.     

Energy Demand,Structural Change and Trade: A Decomposition Analysis of the Danish Manufacturing Industry

This paper examines the relation between trade patterns and energy consumption in manufacturing industries. An input-output decomposition method is used to decompose the change in industrial energy consumption for Denmark into six components, of which three are trade-related. Trade-induced changes in energy consumption have important implications for issues such as international distribution and regulation of energy consumption and emissions. It is shown that a structural change in foreign trade patterns can increase domestic energy demand. This is contrary, however, to what might be expected for a small industrialized country, which is presumed to export products that intensively use inputs of skilled manpower as well as research and development. Finally, calculations carried out at different levels of aggregation are compared. The findings here demonstrate the importance of large variations in energy intensities among subsectors for the calculation results.     

Structural Change in Apartheid-era South Africa: 1975-93

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of South Africa's economy over 1975-93 using a decomposition method within the inputoutput (IO) framework for analysing output changes from a demand side perspective. It decomposes output growth into private consumption, government consumption, investment and export components and also measures the impact of import substitution and changes in intermediate input use (as indicated by changes in IO coefficients). It is found that, before 1981, overall output growth was multi-components driven with all the above components contributing positively to economic growth. However, the collapse of investment demand is by far the single largest factor contributing to the economic stagnation that categorizes the post-1981 period.     

二元经济的结构转变与增长分析

近来国外的许多研究利用现代经济增长理论的分析框架,从理论上探讨了结构转变对经济增长的重要性。但相关模型设定不尽符合我国二元经济的现实。本文结合我国实际、通过拓展相关理论模型,构建包含两个代表性个体、考虑劳动力转移成本和政府投入的二元经济增长模型,从理论上探讨我国结构转变与经济增长的关系,指出了政府投入对促进结构转变、加快经济增长的关键作用。进一步,本文还利用该模型解释了经济增长过程中的区域差距和城乡差距的变动,并探讨缩减经济差距的相关对策。     

Sources of Structural Change in Input–Output Systems: A Field of Influence Approach

The analysis of structural change with input–output (IO) tables is extended beyond the initial ideas of Chenery and Watanabe, and beyond the recent applications of Feldman et al. and Dewhurst, to embrace a more comprehensive view. With this perspective, change is decomposed into three initial components, and these components are further divided into change initiated within the sector and outside the sector. The analysis is then linked with the notion of a ‘field of influence of change’ to provide a more complete view of the way in which changes penetrate the rest of the economic system. The analytical perspectives are illustrated with applications to a three-sector set of IO tables for the US economy for the period 1948–77.     

A Spatial Structural Decomposition Analysis of Chinese and Japanese Energy Demand: 1985–1990

This paper proposes a spatial structural decomposition analysis to measure the effects of the changes in intra- and inter-country linkages on the embodied energy demand in the concerned country. For the empirical analysis, we have used the China- Japan inter-country input–output tables for 1985 and 1990, expressed in constant prices of 1990. The empirical results reveal that (1) at least for the period between 1985 and 1990, the effects of the non-competitive input structural changes in China on the primary energy requirements of Japan were negligible, and (2) the contribution of the Japanese final demand shifts on the total change in Chinese primary energy demand was 40 times larger than that of the Chinese final demand shifts on the primary energy requirements of Japan. The Japanese policy makers should concentrate on the energy impacts of the changes in the domestic production structure rather than the changes in the Chinese production structure.     

Change and continuity in Japanese compensation practices: the case of occupational pensions since the early 2000s

This article analyses changes in the provision of Japanese occupational pensions since the early 2000s. It shows how Japanese companies have followed strategies of cost and risk reduction by creating multi-layered benefit systems that offer a combination of defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) plans whose benefits are becoming increasingly performance-oriented. Analysing the reasons behind the resilience of DB schemes in Japan, the article concludes that enterprise union behaviour has had less influence than regulatory issues and continued corporate commitment to long-standing employment practices for regular workers. These findings highlight the embeddedness of Japanese employment practices in their institutional context.     

Sources of Structural Change and Output Growth of China's Economy: 1987-92

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of China’s economy over 1987–92 using a decomposition method within the input-output (IO) framework. The model uses three comparable IO tables of 1987, 1990, and 1992 as the main data sources; it accounts for output changes from a demand side perspective and decomposes the growth of output into consumption demand, investment demand, export, import, and intermediate use (indicated by changes in IO coefficients). Special attention is given to identifying the effects of government policies on economic growth and structural change. It is found that overall output growth was multi-components driven rather than single-factor led; the share of the contribution to output growth from consumption and investment expansion declined and that from export and import increased. Whilst the efficiency of factor utilisation remains an issue of further research, a remarkable rise in IO coefficient share indicates a deepening and strong interdependence between industrial sectors over the data period. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

对我国公路运输结构变化及其演进趋势的分析

在我国加速经济发展方式转变的背景下,公路运输作为国民经济重要的基础产业,应以怎样的运输结构来适应其转变是一个具有全局性和长远性的问题。通过对公路运输结构的变化及其影响因素进行分析,提出了公路运输业演进的一般趋势,为我国公路运输结构的合理发展提供了借鉴。     

妇女缠足、性别分工和经济变革:19世纪和20世纪早期的中国农村

妇女缠足在中国持续了一千年左右,晚清时已发展到了中国绝大部分地区农村劳动阶级的妇女也普遍缠足的程度。除缠足外还有一系列的习俗束缚着妇女参与社会劳动,强化着农村家庭内两性间的性别分工。本文通过家庭经济学中的性别分工理论研究传统农家生产的性别分工和效率,以及缠足等习俗对经济效率的损失和对性别分工的强化作用。性别分工的强化不仅仅是强化了女性的被奴役地位,在经济上还强化了家庭农业和家庭手工业的结合,增强了农家的自给性质。在这种生产方式下,生产资料和劳动力没有分离,社会分工和专业化生产不发达,同时束缚了经济的变革。     

日本对外直接投资特征及其对中国的启示

我国对外直接投资起步晚但发展快,要想充分发挥后发优势,需要学习和借鉴先进国家的经验教训,做出具有前瞻性和预判性的战略部署。日本是亚洲对外直接投资最发达的经济体之一,其经验教训值得我们研究。本文回顾了日本对外直接投资的演化历程,归纳了日本对外直接投资的特点,提出了对我国对外直接投资具有现实意义的启发。     

Input-Output Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Price Gaps between Japan and China

Sectoral price gaps that were observed in 1990 between Japan and China are studied in this paper by using a decomposition procedure within the input-output framework. The empirical results show that Japan exhibited producer prices that were higher than those observed in China mainly because it registered higher wages that were only partially offset by higher productivity. The effects on output cost gaps of primaryinput price differences and relative productivity levels are analysed. The effects arising from the use of direct inputs as well as the indirect effects that are incorporated into the difference of intermediate-input prices are accounted for by means of an input-output decomposition technique.     

Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity

Structural decomposition techniques are widely used to break down the growth in some variable into the changes in its determinants. In this paper, we discuss the problems caused by the existence of a multitude of equivalent decomposition forms which are used to measure the contribution of a specific determinant. Although it is well known that structural decompositions are not unique, the extent of the problem and its consequences seem to have been largely neglected. In an empirical analysis for The Netherlands between 1986 and 1992, results are calculated for 24 equivalent decomposition forms. The outcomes exhibit a large degree of variability across the different forms. We also examine the two approaches that have been used predominantly in the literature. The average of the two so-called polar decompositions appears to be remarkably close to the average of the full set of 24 decompositions. The approximate decomposition with mid-point weights appears to be almost exact. Although this last alternative might seem a solution to the problem of the marked sensitivity, in fact, it only conceals the problem.     

日本大地震对中国进口日本汽车零部件的影响分析

作为中国汽车零部件最大的进口国,日本大地震对中国汽车产业的影响最为显著。本文采用自组织数据挖掘的GMDH模型方法,建立日本地震对中国进口日本汽车零部件影响的GMDH模型。结果表明,日本大地震后中国进口日本汽车零部件数量经历了一个涨——跌——跌——起——正常的过程,大地震对后续三个月中国日系汽车零部件市场有非常严重的显著影响。     

物流在日本分销体系中的贡献及对我国的启示

传统的日本分销体系是典型的长渠道模式,而且还具有复杂性、多层次、低效率的特点,然而由于日本对物流的高度重视,现代化的高效物流配送体系对日本分销体系的改造起着极大的支撑作用。这对研究我国物流发展、发送我国配送体系具有一定的现实意义。     

A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Pollution in the Netherlands

This paper reviews the results of a structural decomposition analysis in which the annual changes in a number of air pollutants and solid waste are decomposed according to their causes. The analysis in this paper is applied with the help of the so-called National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) for the Netherlands, covering annual data for the period 1987-1998. In a sensitivity analysis it is shown that the average of any pair of so-called 'mirror image' decomposition forms will substantially reduce the variation in the estimates. These mirror image couples are approximately just as reliable as the full average of all decomposition forms. Besides reliable results, the full average also foresees the mutual comparability between the distinguished change factors and is therefore applied in the empirical analyses presented in this paper. The results of these analyses contain the macro-economic developments, results on the industry level as well as a comprehensive overview of the origin and destination of pollution in the Dutch economy that includes the environmental consequences of consumption and international trade.     

产业结构变化对青海涉外经济发展的影响

本文基于区域产业结构的相关理论,着眼于持续发展青海涉外经济的当前需要,立足青海省情,就全省产业结构调整对涉外经济发展的影响问题进行了研究,结果表明,产业结构调整对全省涉外经济发展确实具有带动作用,样本区间内估测的产业结构变化对涉外经济发展的动态效应具有明显的阶段性特征,产业结构调整对涉外经济发展的弹性系数与产业政策的调整及涉外经济制度的变迁有很大关系。     

Financial Recovery and Structural Changes in the Economy

How significant is the Soviet Union's financial crisis? Sergei Vasil'ev, of the Institute of Finance and Economics in Leningrad, argues that the financial crisis is the key to future developments in the Soviet economy and that heavy industry can be expected to suffer as the budget deficit is brought into balance.     

中国企业对日并购策略研究

中国企业对日并购的增加体现出了对核心技术的强烈需求。对日并购是中国企业变大变强的一种成长战略,却不是一件易事,它是一个系统工程,牵涉的要素要比国内的企业并购复杂得多。中国企业对日并购要充分做好并购前的准备工作,加强自我保护,在股权完成交割或资产过户完成后要重点做好文化整合、人事整合、技术整合、营销整合四方面的工作。