Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

Immigration, fertility, and human capital: A model of economic decline of the West

I show how the influences of unskilled immigration, differential fertility between immigrants and the local indigenous population, and incentives for investment in human capital combine to predict the decline of the West. In particular, indigenous low-skilled workers lose from unskilled immigration even if the indigenous low-skilled workers do not finance redistribution, do not compete with immigrants in the labor market, and do not compete with immigrants for publicly financed income transfers. For the economy at large, high-fertility unskilled immigrants and a low-fertility indigenous population result in economic decline through reduced human capital accumulation and reduced growth of per-capita output.     

Where do people live longer?

Can historical exposures of non-European countries to European migrants explain part of their current health outcomes? We find that higher European share of the colonial population robustly raised life expectancy and reduced both fertility and infant mortality rates of present-day population in these former colonies. Specifically, after controlling for other plausible determinants, our baseline results imply that, on average, countries at the 95th percentile of the European share of the colonial population, compared to those at the 5th percentile, live 17 years longer, have 1 less child, and experience 54 fewer infant deaths per 1000 live births. A causal interpretation is given to these results by considering various identification strategies. Overall, our results indicate that health fortunes around the world, on average, improved because of European colonial settlers and that differences in the current levels of health performance can be traced back to differential levels of European colonial settlements, where countries that experienced higher influx of colonial Europeans have better health prosperity nowadays than countries with lower inflow of colonial Europeans. A puzzlement arises, however, as countries with no colonial European settlements have outperformed countries with low colonial European settlements. Thus, explaining this phenomenon and exploring how historical migration holds such an enduring influence on the health of nations today opens up an important avenue for future research.     

Economic Growth in a Cross‐section of Nonindustrial Countries: Does Colonial Heritage Matter for Africa?

The paper investigates the effects of Sub‐Saharan African colonial heritage on economic growth in a sample of nonindustrial countries. An empirical Solow growth model is specified in a way that allows an examination of whether or not growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa reflects a legacy of extractive colonialization strategies, motivated by a hostile disease environment that resulted in extractive growth‐retarding institutions that persisted after independence. Parameter estimates suggest that the partial effects of extractive institutions engendered by a twentieth century colonial heritage account for approximately 30% of the growth gap between the former colonies in Sub‐Saharan Africa and other nonindustrial countries.     

Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers

This paper provides new empirical evidence regarding the formation of international trade networks. Established trade relations may open the gate to new trade opportunities, as they allow meeting new trade partners over time. We test this prediction and its implications for aggregate trade patterns by using the experience of ancient trade linkages between former colonies and their former colonizers (colonial trade linkages). We first show, using aggregate trade data, that former colonies have more trade with former colonizer's neighbors (colonial trade spillovers). We then show that the past export and import experience of former colonies with the colonizer have an impact on the propensity to trade similar products with third countries. In particular, the trade spillover effect is negatively related to geographical distance between third countries and the colonizer, and positively affected by their degree of economic integration.     

The profitability of U.K. foreign direct investment under colonialism

The effects of discrimination in favor of metropolitan direct investment in colonies on the size and composition of foreign investment there and the profits accruing therefrom have been derived with the help of a simple model. Empirical studies show that the rate of return to U.K. investment in her colonies was significantly higher than in non-British LDCs, although some doubt remains as to the extent to which this result is explained by data imperfections.     

Multinational Firms, International Knowledge Flows, and Dual Labor Markets in Developing Economies

This paper seeks to explain how the expansion of multinational firms in a developing economy affects its labor market variables, such as wages in indigenous firms, the average wage level and total employment. Three potential effects: the transfer of foreign knowledge and the associated technological change, diffusion of this knowledge among indigenous firms, and the inflow of the physical capital from abroad, are examined under two possible scenarios: fixed and unlimited labor supply. The results obtained depend on the organization of the labor market in the host country, differences in capital intensity between multinational and local sectors, the amount of physical capital transferred to the host country from abroad, as well as the magnitude of knowledge spillovers stemming from multinational activity to indigenous firms. The predictions of the model are more consistent with empirical observations reported in empirical studies than those of other theoretical studies existing in the literature.     

Historical legacies: A model linking Africa's past to its current underdevelopment

Recent studies have found evidence linking Africa's current under-development to colonial rule and the slave trade. Given that these events ended long ago, why do they continue to matter today? I develop a model, exhibiting path dependence, which provides one explanation for why these past events may have lasting impacts. The model has multiple equilibria: one equilibrium with secure property rights and a high level of production and others with insecure property rights and low levels of production. I show that external extraction, when severe enough, causes a society initially in the high production equilibrium to move to a low production equilibrium. Because of the stability of low production equilibria, the society remains trapped in this suboptimal equilibrium even after the period of external extraction ends. The model provides one explanation why Africa's past events continue to matter today.     

R&D资金管理与企业自主创新——基于我国信息技术类上市公司的实证分析

文章把R&D资金的管理引入企业自主创新研究,利用我国信息技术类上市公司2002-2007年的数据考察了企业R&D资金管理与自主创新之间的关系.研究结果显示,企业自主创新水平与R&D资金管理有着重要的密切关系.在反映R&D资金管理的各要素中,连续的R&D资源投入更有利于企业自主创新,而不断的变更研发计划以及过于分散的投资研发项目则会降低自主创新的有效性.文章研究的结论对企业加强R&D资金管理,提高自主创新效率具有理论参考意义.     

装备制造企业颠覆式创新实现机理及路径研究——基于扎根理论的分析

颠覆式创新是我国实施创新驱动发展战略、加快装备制造企业创新发展的重要手段。以我国3家具有代表性的装备制造企业为研究对象，运用扎根理论研究方法，对装备制造企业颠覆式创新实现机理及路径进行多案例探索性研究，通过开放式译码、主轴译码和选择性译码，构建装备制造企业实现颠覆式创新的机理路径模型，归纳出装备制造企业实现颠覆式创新的3个阶段，并据此为我国装备制造企业实现颠覆式创新提出管理策略和建议。     

The European origins of economic development

Although a large literature argues that European settlement outside of Europe during colonization had an enduring effect on economic development, researchers have been unable to assess these predictions directly because of an absence of data on colonial European settlement. We construct a new database on the European share of the population during colonization and examine its association with economic development today. We find a strong, positive relation between current income per capita and colonial European settlement that is robust to controlling for the current proportion of the population of European descent, as well as many other country characteristics. The results suggest that any adverse effects of extractive institutions associated with small European settlements were, even at low levels of colonial European settlement, more than offset by other things that Europeans brought, such as human capital and technology.     

对东部、西部地区固定资产投资与三个产业发展的实证分析

固定资产投资与经济发展有密切的关系,固定资产投资的数量决定了地区的经济总量,固定资产投资的方向决定了产业布局、产业结构。根据东部、西部地区2008年固定资产投资与国内生产总值的有关数据建立动态规划模型,进行了产业发展优势分析,并对西部地区的发展提出建议。     

THE CO‐OPERATIVE REFORM PROCESS IN TANZANIA AND SRI LANKA

ABSTRACT**: This article reports on findings from a three year study of co‐operatives in Sri Lanka and Tanzania. The article asks three questions: why do co‐operative sectors need reforming; what is the co‐operative reform process; and why has reform succeeded in some countries but not others? It provides a short history of co‐operatives in three phases: the colonial period, the post‐colonial nationalist period and the period of market liberalisation. It shows that the control exercised by colonial governments was deepened under nationalist governments, with co‐operatives becoming parastatals. Liberalisation brought a sustained attempt by international agencies to reassert the distinctive nature of co‐operatives as member‐owned businesses. However, co‐ops were ill‐prepared to adjust to a competitive market and the lifting of government regulation; many failed, some were corrupted, while a few became truly member‐controlled. The article draws on documentary analysis and key informant interviews to provide accounts of the reform process in Tanzania and Sri Lanka. It finds that the process is incomplete and often contested.     

Technology diffusion and its effects on social inequalities

We develop a dynamic general-equilibrium framework in which growth is driven by skill-biased technology diffusion. The model incorporates leisure–labor decisions and human capital accumulation through education. We are able to reproduce the trends in income inequality and labor and skills supplies observed in the United States between 1969 and 1996. The paper also provides an explanation for why more individuals invest in human capital when the investment premium is going down, and why the skill-premium goes up when the skills supply is increasing.     

Growth Due To Globalization*

This article presents a growth model including geographical space and transportation costs in which the geographical area where firms sell their product is endogenous. Growth is generated by the expansion of trade and there is a positive relationship between degree of openness and income level. The model explains why economies become increasingly more open and why the degree of openness is not robustly correlated with growth. In contrast to other growth models, investment in transport infrastructure plays an important role and the size of the country does not affect growth.     

南方最优知识产权保护水平与南方企业自主创新

构建了一个扩展的南北贸易模型,讨论了南方知识产权保护的决定因素及其对南北双方福利的影响。在模型中,南方政府内生决定知识产权保护水平,北方厂商内生决定研发投资水平和市场竞争策略,南方厂商内生决定自主创新或模仿。研究发现:南方的最优知识产权保护水平与北方存在差异;当南方厂商模仿北方厂商的技术时,南方执行最严格的知识产权保护对北方福利和南方福利都造成损害;当南方厂商的创新效率较高时,严格的知识产权保护能激励南方厂商进行自主创新、改善南方福利。     

A Schumpeterian model of investment and innovation with labor market regulation

Theoretical and empirical models provide ambiguous responses on the relationship between labor market regulation, innovation and investment. On the one hand, labor market regulation increases firms' adjustment costs and, ceteris paribus, decreases investment. But, on the other, it also stimulates firms to invest, innovate, increase productivity and profit in the long run. In this paper we present an endogenous growth model that describes the role of these opposite forces, and why a stricter labor market regulation may positively affect innovation and investment in the long run. Most of the theoretical and empirical results hold for Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.     

中国固定资产投资的影响因素分析

本文以古典投资理论、加速数理论、预期利润理论以及政治周期理论等相关投资理论为基础,分析了投资活动的决定因素,并结合我国实际建立了一个包括国民产出、利润率、利率和中央政府换届等多个解释变量的多元线性回归模型.本文采用1980-2009年期间中国的固定资产投资总额等相关数据,对各种投资理论假说进行实证检验.回归结果证实了投资与产出之间存在正相关关系,支持投资的加速数假说;估计结果还表明投资与利润率之间存在正相关关系,证实了投资的预期利润假说;但实际利率和中央领导换届这两个解释变量均未通过显著性检验.研究还发现我国的投资富有产出弹性远大于利润率弹性,最后就政府调节投资水平给出相应的政策含义.     

高经济增长低就业增长的原因探讨——以广东省和上海市的比较为例

以2000年全国第五次人口普查资料为依据, 对比分析了上海和广东省两个人口迁入中心在吸纳劳动力方面的差异。产业结构、国有经济比重和集体经济活力等差异是造成广东省和上海市吸纳劳动力能力不同的主要原因。政府主导的投资有可能推动中国部分地区偏离劳动密集型技术路线, 走上资金密集型或者技术密集型产业道路。这种格局将违背中国的比较优势, 不利于增加就业, 不利于有效地利用人力资源收获2020年前的人口红利。     

Institutional obstacles to African economic development: State, ethnicity, and custom

To account for the African growth tragedy and, in particular, for its causes rooted in governance problems, the institutional legacy that African countries inherited from pre-colonial and colonial times must be considered. Three aspects are examined here. First, the relationship between ethnicity and state performance is bi-directional: if strong ethno-regional identities prevent the emergence of modern citizenship, they themselves constitute an endogenous outcome of continuous state failures. Second, the persistence of informal rules and social norms causes legal dualism, which undermines the credibility of modern statutory law. Third, social customs and norms that hinder socio-economic differentiation and individual capital accumulation lower the performance of indigenous enterprises.