LIBERALISING TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA: A SURVEY OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STUDIES

This paper reviews applications of computable general equilibrium models to trade liberalisation in South Africa. It focuses on economic structure, data, macroeconomic closure and results of the models. The models project that trade liberalisation has had small positive impacts on growth. Poverty and inequality outcomes are less clear cut and depend on the model used. Models with fully integrated micro data find that poverty has worsened slightly while inequality has risen. Aggregated models predict that poverty has been reduced by small amounts. Dynamic models report rising inequality but falling poverty incidence. The paper identifies areas for future research.     

ELECTRICITY REFORMS IN MALI: A MACRO–MICRO ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS ON POVERTY AND DISTRIBUTION

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation model to explore the distributional and poverty-related effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Mali, a poor country in West Africa. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Mali by income deciles, showing that few poor households are connected to the electricity grid. We then apply a sequential CGE micro-simulation model to track the transmission mechanisms between increases in electricity prices and changes in poverty and inequality among different household groups. Our results show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects of such increases are quite strong and negative. The compensating policies we tested do not help those who lose from the pricing reform. In fact they amplify the negative effects.     

Can trade liberalisation in South Africa reduce poverty and inequality while boosting economic growth? Macro–micro reflections

South Africa is trapped in a cycle of modest growth, unacceptable poverty levels and record unemployment. This has led to renewed interest on the relationship between macro (growth) and micro (poverty and distribution) issues. This paper uses a macro–micro tool that couples a computable general equilibrium model with microsimulation models to examine the impact of further unilateral trade policy reforms on growth, poverty and welfare. Trade liberalisation alone has very minimal short-run macroeconomic consequences while its long-term impacts are positive and magnified by technical factor productivity (TFP) effects. Trade liberalisation has no appreciable impact on poverty in the short run even if we allow for trade-induced TFP increases. In the long run, however, poverty reduces even in the case when we do not allow for TFP increases. Trade liberalisation policy has been found to be progressive despite the low level of tariff protection remaining in South Africa.     

How social security policies and economic transformation affect poverty and inequality: Lessons for South Africa

This article examines how various characteristics of social and economic policy frameworks affect poverty and inequality levels in developing countries, principally in Botswana and Mauritius. The research findings suggest that poverty and inequality are lower in countries with generous and broad-based – rather than pro-poor – social security policies, and where social policies are complemented by economic policies promoting economic transformation rather than mere economic growth. While South Africa's challenges of combating poverty and inequality are shaped by its own historical context, the lessons from other countries offer the opportunity to reflect on the social consequences of various social and economic policy mixtures. In particular, it may be worth considering how to bridge the divide between the economically productive contributors to social security policies and the economically marginalised beneficiaries of such policies.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay

The 2008 global economic crisis affected the Uruguayan economy through two main channels: collapse in global trade and drop in capital flows. In response to the crisis, the Uruguayan government increased public consumption and investment and expanded social benefits to unemployed workers. We apply a computable general equilibrium model linked to microsimulations to analyze the distributional impacts of these policies and assess their effectiveness. We find that an increase in public investment was the only policy effective in mitigating the negative impact of the crisis on extreme poverty. The other policies reinforced the negative impact of the crisis on the poor. All three policies are costly and have an important impact on macroeconomic variables and the structure of production and export, while they have only slight or negative results on poverty and household income. More focalized policies, such as direct cash transfers, might have better results in terms of cost‐benefit.     

Spatial Comparisons of Poverty and Inequality in Living Standards in Malawi

The paper looks at poverty and inequality across areas in Malawi. The focus is on both monetary (consumption) and non‐monetary (health and education) dimensions of well‐being. Stochastic poverty dominance tests show that rural areas are poorer in the three dimensions regardless of poverty line chosen. Stochastic inequality dominance tests find that the north and south dominate the centre in health inequality, and there is no dominance between the north and south. With respect to education inequality, dominance is declared for the south‐centre pair only. A subgroup decomposition analysis finds that the south contributes the most to consumption and education poverty, while the centre is the largest contributor to health poverty. We establish that within‐area inequalities (vertical inequalities) rather than between‐area inequalities (horizontal inequalities) are the major driver of consumption, health and education inequality in Malawi.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

Poverty Alleviation in the People's Republic of China: The Implications for Sino–African Cooperation in Poverty Reduction

Abstract: In the last thirty years, remarkable achievements have been made in China's poverty reduction course. The dramatic fall in China's poor can be attributed mainly to a high rate of economic growth, government poverty reduction policies and targeted programmes and pro‐poor macroeconomic and industrial policies. This paper focuses on China's poverty reduction policies and programmes and their impact on the poor regions and poor households. Lessons are drawn for poverty reduction and economic development in African countries. The paper also explores the potential for collaboration in poverty reduction between China and African countries and recommendations are made for the governments and donor agencies.     

Smoke and mirrors? The science of poverty measurement and its application

Measures of poverty are much used, but also much criticised as having limited value in debates on public resource allocation. Some argue that the measures are too conservative and do little more than complicate important issues of inequality and injustice. However, poverty measurement can be sensitive to these concerns if grounded in the field's well-developed theoretical foundation. In South Africa, poverty measures over more than 50 years have consistently taken into account distributional issues and the causes and implications of deprivation, and most South African analyses of poverty have recognised and incorporated the multi-dimensional nature of poverty. Recognising different perceptions of aggregation, time horizon and the role of states and markets is perhaps more important than methodology when assessing what poverty measures can contribute. With proper theorisation, and attention paid to the purpose of poverty diagnostics, measurement is more than sleight-of-hand and can provide both a tool for advocacy and a means to implement policies that promote greater social justice.     

A BVAR MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1‐2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short‐term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out‐of‐sample‐forecast accuracy resulting from the BVAR model is compared with the same generated from the univariate and unrestricted VAR models. The BVAR model is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. The same is also capable of correctly predicting the direction of change in the chosen macroeconomic indicators.     

The effects of unemployment and inflation on the income distribution: A regional view

VI. Summary and Conclusions The behavior of the U.S. income distribution over the business cycle has been the subject of several previous studies. However, a facet of these inquiries which has not been viewed is the geographical effects within the U.S. The diverse economic characteristics of the country have contributed to uneven inflationary and unemployment experiences among the respective regions during the national business cycles. The purpose of this study has been to model the regional income inequality responses to the distinct macroeconomic records for the years 1968–1976. One general consequence of this study is the conformation of earlier work suggesting that in some settings increases in the unemployment rate tend to increase the extent of income inequality and that inflation tends to reduce the extent of such inequality. Another result, however, has not been anticipated: namely, that regional inflation and unemployment had a waker impact on the income distribution the more unequal the distribution. For example, the weakest effects of the business cycle were observed for the South, and it was the Southern region which had the greatest income inequality. The North Central region, on the other hand, showed the greatest sensitivity to the business cycle, and it has the most equal income distribution.¹² Such geographical disaggregation seems important in understanding the varied implicit distributional effects within the U.S. when macroeconomic policy is aimed at reducing unemployment and inflation.     

Pro-poor growth and social protection in South Africa: Exploring the interactions

This study evaluates the impact of South Africa's long-term economic growth on household poverty and inequality between 1995 and 2005. We find a decline in aggregate levels of poverty, but increasing levels of inequality. The evidence suggests that the growth model provides substantial redistributive income support to the poor through the social grant programme, whilst offering few returns to those in the middle of the distribution.     

External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa

Abstract: The paper uses a simple macroeconomic model to estimate the impact of debt relief and terms of trade shocks on growth and poverty in African countries. For the 18 heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) that reached the enhanced HIPC decision point by end‐December 2000, the basic quantitative findings are that HIPC debt relief has boosted economic growth in these countries by an average of 2.9 percent per annum and that the computed result of this increase in growth is a reduction in poverty by an average of 2.2 percent per annum. However, the paper shows that recent deteriorations in the terms of trade have counter‐balanced these positive effects by lowering growth by an average of 2.0 percent per annum and by increasing poverty by an average of 1.3 percent per annum. Clearly, much of the positive impact emanating from the HIPC Initiative has been eroded due to recent deteriorations in the terms of trade. The paper also estimates the net effect on growth and poverty of the recently agreed 100 percent multilateral debt relief. This is predicted to boost economic growth by an average of 5 percent per annum and reduce poverty by about 5.3 percent per annum for the group of all African HIPCs. The paper concludes that 100 percent debt relief is crucial for Africa, but that more aid and policies need to be focused on a long‐term development strategy that fosters the necessary structural transformation.     

The influence of policy on the roles of agriculture in South Africa

This article provides a framework for the analysis of the relationship between different macroeconomic, sector and commodity policies and the multiplier effects of agriculture. It starts with a listing of the macroeconomic, sector and commodity policies that have been included in the analysis. These should be considered in conjunction with the likely roles of agriculture along each of the dimensions of the social, poverty and cultural roles of agriculture. These policies and roles should be conceptualised as the vertical and horizontal axes respectively of a ‘policy role’ matrix. The ‘cells’ of this matrix – the policy role interactions – are discussed with respect to the immediate macroeconomic, agricultural, economic, institutional and social impact of the policy change on the agricultural sector at farm, regional, national and multinational levels, and thereafter on the role of agriculture in terms of each of the dimensions identified above.     

Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach

In this article, we study macroeconomic stabilization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a dynamic game approach. With the aid of a stylized macroeconomic model, this article analyzes the transmission and interaction of national fiscal policies and monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in the EMU. A special focus is on the effects of labor market institutions in the participating countries and of the introduction of fiscal stringency criteria like those imposed in the Stability and Growth Pact.     

The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.     

Sectoral Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A Multiplier Decomposition Technique Applied to South Africa

How does an increase in a sector's output affect poverty alleviation? In this paper a multiplier decomposition for a socioeconomic system represented by a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is used to study this linkage. The decomposition applied to South Africa reveals that growth in agriculture, services and some manufacturing sectors can alleviate poverty for the black African population. For sectoral growth to be effective, however, the need for appropriate skill acquisition for the poor must be addressed directly. Only long-term policies geared towards improving both economic growth and the human capital stock of the poor can lead to significant poverty alleviation.     

One Kind of Freedom: Poverty Dynamics in Post-apartheid South Africa

A 1993 South African living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity. Drawing on a 1998 re-survey of households in the 1993 study, this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded, or whether apartheid's end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape. After proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions, the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the South African poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time.