ELECTRICITY REFORMS IN MALI: A MACRO–MICRO ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS ON POVERTY AND DISTRIBUTION

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) micro-simulation model to explore the distributional and poverty-related effects of price reform in the electricity sector of Mali, a poor country in West Africa. In the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in Mali by income deciles, showing that few poor households are connected to the electricity grid. We then apply a sequential CGE micro-simulation model to track the transmission mechanisms between increases in electricity prices and changes in poverty and inequality among different household groups. Our results show that direct price increases have a minimal effect on poverty and inequality, whereas the general equilibrium effects of such increases are quite strong and negative. The compensating policies we tested do not help those who lose from the pricing reform. In fact they amplify the negative effects.     

In search of FDI-transmitted R&D spillovers: A study based on Swedish data

In Search of FDI-Transmitted R& D Spillovers: A Study Based on Swedish Data. — This paper analyzes empirically whether inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) work as channels for international R&D spillovers. The authors utilize firm-level and industry-level data for Swedish manufacturing. Hardly any evidence of FDI-related R&D spillovers is found. But while the results do not provide support for the hypothesis that the activity level of MNEs’ affiliates matters for the extent of FDI-transmitted international spillovers, they suggest that utilizing foreign affiliates’ employment as a weighting scheme may be too crude a measure. The authors’ analysis shows indeed that the type of activity — R&D or assembly — carried out in the affiliates matters significantly for technology sourcing.     

When Does Economic Growth Reduce Poverty and Strengthen the Middle Class? A State-Level,Sector-Specific Analysis of Peru

Using novel state-level data of Peru from 1997 to 2010, we investigate how growth in different sectors affects poverty rates and the middle class. Our results indicate that only the manufacturing sector seems to robustly decrease poverty. Growth in the service sector emerges as a meaningful predictor of a rising middle class. Allowing for regional differences, we find substantial variation across the 25 Peruvian states with large shifts in magnitudes, signs, and statistical importance. Beyond the immediate implications for Peru, these findings highlight the importance of analyzing the link between economic performance and poverty rates on a subnational level. Policy implications are likely to differ substantially, depending on the source of economic growth and regional particularities.     

Poverty Effects of the Philippines’ Tariff Reduction Program: Insights from a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

A computable general equilibrium micro‐simulation model is used to assess the economic and poverty impacts of tariff reduction in the Philippines. Tariff reduction induces consumers to substitute cheaper imported agricultural products for domestic goods, thereby resulting in a contraction in agricultural output. In contrast, tariff reduction reduces the domestic cost of production, benefiting the outward‐oriented and import‐dependent industrial sector. The national poverty headcount decreases marginally as lower consumer prices outweigh the nominal income reduction experienced by the majority of households. However, both the poverty gap and severity of poverty worsens, implying that the poorest of the poor become even poorer.     

The determinants of export performance: A firm-level study of Italian manufacturing

The Determinants of Export Performance: A Firm-Level Study of Italian Manufacturing. — This paper analyzes some determinants of a firm’s probability of exporting and export intensity and presents the findings of an empirical study carried out on a large sample of Italian firms. On the basis of Probit and Tobit estimates, it emerges that these determinants change according to the size of firms. In particular, only for small firms is the relationship between size and export performance positive. The export activity of small and medium-sized firms decreases with the share of sales due to subcontracting. Larger firms, instead, benefit more from being affiliated with business groups and performing innovative activities of a different nature.     

Misreporting of Government Transfers: How Important Are Survey Design and Geography?

Recent studies linking household surveys to administrative records reveal high rates of misreporting of program receipt. We use the FoodAPS survey to examine whether the findings of these studies of general household surveys using one or two states generalize to a survey with a narrow focus and across many states. First, we study how reporting errors differ from other surveys. We find a lower rate of false negatives (failures to report true receipt) in FoodAPS, likely partly due to the shorter recall period of FoodAPS. Misreporting varies with household characteristics and between interviewers. Second, we examine geographic heterogeneity in survey error to assess whether we can extrapolate from linked data from a few states. We find systematic differences between states in unconditional error rates but no evidence of substantial differences conditional on common covariates. Thus, extrapolating error rates across states may yield more accurate receipt estimates than uncorrected survey estimates.     

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL AND SOUTH-EAST ASIAN TIN MINING, 1906–40

This article examines the role of Australian capitalists in developing the tin dredging industry in South-East Asia. The capital intensive nature of the industry required substantial preparatory investment in prospecting, and the formation of many different kinds of alliances. The group that played the major role in demonstrating the viability of tin dredging was unable to make the transition to the mature stage of the industry. While others were more successful, most felt their properties were best administered by an English group. The dominant role played at the beginning of the century became quite marginal by the outbreak of World War II.     

A VERY BRITISH PHENOMENON? INDUSTRIAL POLITICS AND THE DECLINE OF THE JAPANESE COAL MINING INDUSTRY SINCE THE 1950S

This paper describes how the Japanese government gradually abandoned its support for coal mining after 1945. Drawing parallels with the British experience during the 1930s, this article shows how coal miners and owners in Japan were able to slow the pace of economic adjustment from the 1950s. The government's initial reluctance to act reflected its willingness to put industrial politics to the fore, preferring to avoid alienating political support and aggravating a vocal unionised sector of the labour force. It eventually accepted and acted upon the need for draconian retrenchment.     

Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan

This paper attempts to enhance our understanding of macro aspects of bankruptcies in Japan. For this purpose, we estimate a vector autoregression comprised of three macroeconomic variables, two financial variables from the corporate sector and the bankruptcy rate, and construct its impulse responses. The estimation results generally show expected and consistent relationships between economic shocks and aggregate bankruptcies: in particular, a positive shock in the call rate clearly raises the bankruptcy rate. We also estimate industry-level models for manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail trade, the results of which show fundamental similarities, but differences as well, in the details by industry. We try to apply a standard framework for analysis aimed at establishing a clear benchmark for the study.     

IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF DIFFERENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH IN AN ECONOMY WITH HIGH INEQUALITY

The economic growth of South Africa has been disappointing over the last quarter century. This note addresses a conceptual problem that arises because of composition effects. Two important features of the South African economy are, first, its extreme inequality (primarily between the white population and the African population). Additionally, the African population has been growing rapidly, while the white population has experienced a declining share. This note derives an explicit equation for the impact of inequality and population-growth differences on the growth of per capita GDP. It shows that the combination of divergent population growth and high inequality can lead to an apparent drag on measured economic growth even though the components, and a more adequate measure of economic welfare, are growing at a healthy rate.     

Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings

This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing crosssection variability of earnings into components that are forecastableat the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity)and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variabilityin returns to schooling is forecastable. This has importantimplications for using measured variability to price risk andpredict college attendance.     

EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.