Naked exclusion with minimum‐share requirements

We consider a class of contracts in which buyers commit to giving a seller some minimum share of their total purchases. We show that such contracts can be used by an incumbent seller to reduce the probability of entry by a rival seller when the incumbent can commit to its selling price as part of the contract. We further show that such contracts can be profitable for the incumbent even when exclusive dealing would not be, and even when buyers can coordinate their accept‐or‐reject decisions. The average price paid by the buyers will be higher and welfare will be lower whether or not the incumbent's exclusionary conduct turns out to be successful in preventing entry.     

中国的金融市场开发与贷款证券化

随着金融市场竞争压力的加大,传统的融资方式已经不能满足投资者的需要。贷款证券化可以使资金拥有者通过这一渠道将资金转移到贷款者手中,能很好地解决当今社会许多融资难的问题。这种形式如果能够在我国的金融体系中得到完善,会极大地促进我国的经济建设,也能较好地解决投融资体系的现实问题。     

模型验证:“花瓶”还是“安全阀”?——香港地区银行的经验及启示

良好的模型治理机制对于保障内部评级法初级法在商业银行的建立和有效运用十分重要。通过完善的模型治理机制,可以有效控制模型风险、补救模型缺陷和实现对内外部标尺的正确使用,从而真正发挥在银行风险管理中的安全阀作用。香港地区银行的做法和经验,可以为内地银行提供参考与借鉴。     

论资产计量

本文从会计信息的质量特征、会计的本质、会计的目标等方面对资产计价进行探讨, 认为资产难以全部采用价值计量, 成本计量有其存在的必要性与合理性, 能单独产生现金流量的资产可以采用价值计量, 不能单独产生现金流量的资产, 则必须以成本计量, 这样才能更好地实现会计的目标。本文最后探讨了计量属性在资产中应用的具体条件。     

社会资本与企业发展

单纯用经济资本理论不能解释诸多的经济问题,把社会资本引入经济学领域,就会克服这一局限。同时也意味着除了物质资本和人力资本外,经济活动者所拥有的社会资源也可以进入经济活动中,作为另一种类型的资本而发挥作用。而社会资本则是通过人际之间的合作达到促进社会发展的目的。     

The moments of the Gompertz distribution and maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters

The Gompertz distribution is widely used to describe the distribution of adult deaths. Previous works concentrated on formulating approximate relationships to characterise it. However, using the generalised integro-exponential function, exact formulas can be derived for its moment-generating function and central moments. Based on the exact central moments, higher accuracy approximations can be defined for them. In demographic or actuarial applications, maximum likelihood estimation is often used to determine the parameters of the Gompertz distribution. By solving the maximum likelihood estimates analytically, the dimension of the optimisation problem can be reduced to one both in the case of discrete and continuous data. Monte Carlo experiments show that by ML estimation, higher accuracy estimates can be acquired than by the method of moments.     

An analysis of secured debt

This paper analyzes the pricing of two types of secured debt and shows that secured debt can be used to increase the value of the firm. In particular, it is shown that some profitable projects will not be undertaken by a firm which can use only equity or unsecured debt to finance them but will be undertaken if they can be financed with secured debt. Secured debt is priced for a firm with two assets and some unsecured debt outstanding. The pricing results are used to illustrate the benefits of the security provision of secured debt.     

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach

This article explores how a multivariate logit model of theprobability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor bankingsector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily availabledata, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretationbased on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sampleperformance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoringsystem can be tailored to fit the preferences of decisionmakersregarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be usefulas a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs.     

科技,财政“催化剂”

要说老百姓最关心的事情,无非两条:安居与乐业。重庆公租房的出现,无疑令房奴和准房奴欣喜不已。重庆模式一旦成形,或许可以成为未来大城市中低收入人群的首选。在百度上搜索重庆公租房,可以找到1,900,000个网页,可见老百姓对拥有一个安定住房的迫切心     

Efficient Post-Retirement Asset Allocation

Abstract

To examine post-retirement asset allocation, an extension to the classic Markowitz risk-return framework is suggested. Assuming that retirees make constant (real dollar) annual withdrawals from their portfolios, reward and risk measures are defined to be the mean and standard deviation of wealth remaining at end of life. Asset returns and time of death are both treated as random variables. Assuming constant lifetime asset allocation, the risk and reward measures can be evaluated analytically, and an efficient frontier can be determined. Life annuities can be used to extend the left-hand (low-risk) side of the efficient frontier. The desired level of wealth at end of life can be used to choose a desirable portfolio on the efficient frontier. The desirable portfolio strongly depends on the withdrawal rate. It is suggested (although not proven) that asset allocations strategies that vary with age do not add efficiency in this model, and asset allocation strategies that vary with wealth can add efficiency.     

The prevention of excess managerial risk taking

Executives with poor prior performance may be inclined to take excessive risk in the hope of meeting performance targets, in which case a compensation contract featuring severance pay can be optimal. While prior work has shown that severance can induce managers to take positive NPV risks, we show that it can also keep them from taking negative NPV risks. We show that severance should be contingent on results: complete failure should nullify any payments. We also show that mandating a firm size that is larger than first-best, while costly, can help screen for good managers.     

非法资金流动行为及其博弈均衡研究——基于演化博弈的分析

运用演化博弈的方法对实施非法资本流动群体的行为和最终均衡分析结果显示,不能指望在对非法资本跨国流动行为的惩罚力度有限的加强之后,这种行为会马上得到抑制.对于监管当局来说,由于非法资本跨国流动的收益是无法控制的,所以为了尽量抑制这种行为,对实施者的惩罚力度应持续加强.而且这种惩罚威胁即使只作用于部分个体,也能有效遏制整体的非法资金流动.     

Historical analysis as a basis for population foresight

A framework for conducting historical analysis of population reactions to stimuli is presented. This analysis provides a structured, rigorous and auditable approach to forecasting population behaviours. The multi-methodology approach takes complex qualitative data and structures it in such a way that patterns of population behaviours can be identified and semi quantitative data can be extracted for further analysis. The ability of the framework to allow simple contextual analysis is discussed, as is its ability to provide the foundations for understanding stimuli. Together, the information provided by the framework can be used as the basis for generation of plausible future scenarios within appropriate contexts for both the near and far futures. Additionally, both current and future events and stimuli can be added to the model as they occur, to either evolve or validate trends in population behaviours.     

农行拓展个人金融业务的探讨

个人金融业务已成为商业银行实现盈利的重要渠道,是入世后中外银行竞争的焦点。农行应利用自身的优势,制定个人金融业务优先发展的战略,通过借鉴国外先进经验,加大金融业务的品种创新和营销力度,实行差异化服务等,以个人金融业务作为业务发展的突破口。     

国家开发银行在我国银行间债券市场做市商服务透析

COSO发布的风险管理框架完全适用于企业财务风险管理，是衡量企业风险管理有效性的一个标准。依据此标准，通过对企业财务风险控制体系的评价，在评价的基础上，进行符合性测试，可以确定企业财务风险控制体系的健全程度和得到遵循的程度，进而确定财务风险控制体系是否可以依赖以及可以依赖的程度，以此来发现企业财务风险控制体系的不足。     

The Costs of Restrictive Trade Policies in the Presence of Factor Tax Distortions

This paper uses a numerical general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative importance of pre-existing factor tax distortions for the welfare effects of tariffs and import quotas. The presence of pre-existing taxes can greatly raise the costs of these policies, possibly by over several hundred percent. For a tariff much of this extra cost can be offset if tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes. Hence there can be a large cost discrepancy between tariffs and quotas. The optimal tariff for a country with market power in trade can be reduced to zero, unless revenues finance cuts in distortionary taxes.     

从税收视角看工业化:以湖南为例

税收是经济的"晴雨表",可以作为整个经济的"了望台"。从税收规模、税收增长、税收构成等方面的分析,能揭示税收与工业化之间的关系。剖析湖南工业化过程中存在的问题,可得出如下结论:可以从税收视角去把握一个地区的经济发展水平或工业化程度;经济结构的转变与调整,不仅对经济发展本身具有重要意义,而且从政府财源的角度看,也至关重要。     

地方政府融资平台贷款风险分析与思考

地方政府融资平台贷款风险分析不能仅仅着眼于单纯的地方政府和企业层面,而应首先从更宏观的视野来考察中国地方政府乃至中国政府的总体负债水平,在此基础上,再来考察地方政府和融资平台的关系、融资平台之间的关系、融资平台自身,从而确定地方政府融资平台贷款的风险特征,提出解决之道。     

Algorithms for handling soft constraints and their applications to staff scheduling problems

This paper presents a new model for dynamically deciding when, how, and to what extent soft constraints should be relaxed. The first part of the model is a depth-first search algorithm and a best-first repair algorithm which can generate partial schedules quickly. The second part is an iterative relaxation algorithm which can augment the generated partial schedules by slightly relaxing potentially relaxable constraints (i.e. soft constraints). The model guarantees that (1) a soft constraint will be relaxed only when no backtrack (repair) can be made within a time limit, (2) the relaxation of soft constraints can always deepen the search tree, and (3) the relaxation will only be made at dead nodes, and when the search algorithm can be continued the relaxed soft constraints will return to their initial states. The model has been successfully applied to two staff scheduling problems, dispatcher scheduling problem and crew scheduling problem. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.