Wage Rigidity, Monetary Integration and Fiscal Stabilization in Europe

Flexibility in fiscal policy is a necessary ingredient in a policy package for EMU. Even with strong endogenous shock absorbers, such as real wage flexibility, fiscal policy can speed up the stabilization process in response to demand shocks. If real wages are rigid, as they typically are in Europe, fiscal policy cannot remove the adverse effects of asymmetric supply shocks, but it can successfully limit the divergence between member states. Monetary flexibility, a possible option in the run-up to EMU, cannot completely make up for the stabilization function of fiscal policy.     

Monetary Rules and Deficit Shocks

Modern theory on interest rate rules is based on the representative agent framework with infinite-horizon consumers, thereby ignoring redistributions of the fiscal burden across generations due to deficit shocks. We show how the ‘Taylor principle’ relies on this restrictive assumption. In a dynamic New Keynesian general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, the existence of a unique stable rational expectations equilibrium may also occur under a passive monetary policy. However, active monetary policy is still required to stabilize the economy in response to fiscal shocks. Thanks are due to an anonymous referee, Andrea Costa, Jordi Galí and Giancarlo Marini for very useful comments and discussions. Financial support from CNR and the FIRB project is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

外部供需冲击视角下的东亚货币合作可行性研究

区域货币合作在维护区域金融稳定、促进区域经济发展方面具有不可替代的作用。欧洲主权债务危机爆发后,人们对东亚能否继续进行货币合作产生了疑问,有必要结合欧债危机产生的新情况、新问题,从新的视角探讨东亚货币合作的可行性。文章从供给与需求两方面的经济结构冲击对称性视角,对东亚10个经济体之间的冲击相关系数、冲击规模与调整速度进行了实证分析,证实了东亚区域不同经济体之间存在着不同的对称性,具有双边和次区域货币合作的经济基础。同时文章提出东亚区域未来货币合作的形式、实现路径和风险防范措施。     

Optimal Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Is International Monetary Cooperation Beneficial?

A stochastic general‐equilibrium model is used to explore the welfare effects of optimal monetary policy and the potential benefits of policy coordination. Cross‐country perfectly symmetric shocks in the traded goods sectors and imperfectly correlated shocks in the non‐traded goods sectors are considered. In this set‐up, monetary policy may not be able to achieve efficient sectoral resource allocations within countries and avoid inefficient relative price changes across countries. Welfare gains from coordination are sizable if the shocks to the traded and non‐traded goods sectors are negatively correlated and both sectors are of roughly equal size.     

Fiscal Stabilization in the EMU

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a stylized two-country model. First, it is shown how asymmetries between countries might matter in terms of the resulting business cycle fluctuations. More specifically, country-specific shocks are allowed for as well as cross-national differences in wage behavior. Second, it is shown by means of numerical simulations how national and federal fiscal stabilization policies can be used to dampen business cycle fluctuations in various (a)symmetric settings. The main innovation of the paper is to illustrate how structural differences between countries help to determine the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.     

Productivity Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Two-Country Model

In this paper, we examine the effects of foreign productivity shocks on monetary policy in a symmetric open economy. Our two-country model incorporates the New Keynesian features of price stickiness and monopolistic competition based on the cost channel of Ravenna and Walsh (2006). In particular, in response to asymmetric productivity shocks, firms in one country achieve a more efficient level of production than those in another economy. Because the terms of trade are directly affected by changes in both economies’ output levels, international trade creates a transmission channel for inflation dynamics in which a deflationary spiral in foreign producer prices reduces domestic output. When there is a decline in economic activity, the monetary authority should react to this adverse situation by lowering the key interest rate. The impulse response function from the model shows that a productivity shock can cause a real depreciation of the exchange rate when economies are closely integrated through international trade.     

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.     

Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

We analyze the conduct of monetary policy in a currency union in the face of asymmetric shocks. In particular, we compare the stabilization properties of a currency union versus alternative exchange rate arrangements. The relative performance of a currency union is shown to depend on the extent of economic integration in patterns of consumption and production and on the relative weights placed on price stability versus employment stability in the monetary authority's objective function.
JEL classification : F 33; F 40     

货币冲击、房地产收益波动与最优货币政策选择

与传统资产定价模型中风险收益权衡关系相悖,我国房地产市场存在投资异象和波动长记忆性特征。文章利用泰勒规则(Taylor Rule)的利率缺口,在剔除市场预期之后测度了中国市场的货币政策冲击,并基于房地产投资回报的时序数据波动聚集性和时变性特征构建GARCH(1,1)-M模型,以此度量我国房地产市场投资收益的波动演变路径,解释了央行实施加息的货币政策后当期房价反而上涨的投资现象。文章还立足于房地产市场参与人的投资特征,从行为金融学的全新研究视角出发,建立包含行为资产定价的动态模型经济系统,研究资产价格波动与最优货币政策选择问题,求得相应闭型解,为实施关注资产价格波动的最优货币政策提供理论基础。     

Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules

The Fiscal Stability Pact for EMU implies that constraints on fiscal policy facilitate inflation control. In this paper we identify two stable policy regimes. When monetary policy seeks to raise real interest rates in response to excess inflation, a self-stabilising fiscal policy is required to ensure model stability. A fiscal policy which does not, by itself, ensure fiscal solvency constrains monetary policy to be relatively 'passive'. However, in simulations we conclude that the central bank does not need to seek, on this account, the degree of debt stabilisation that appears to be implied by the fiscal stability pact.     

A Model of Balance‐of‐Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs. Fiscal Approaches

This paper develops a model for balance‐of‐payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis.     

Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: a Reappraisal

This paper proposes a two‐country general‐equilibrium model incorporating a tradable sector with pricing‐to‐market as well as a nontradable sector. In that case, real exchange rate fluctuations arise from two sources: changes in the relative price of traded goods, that exemplify deviations from the law of one price, and movements in the relative price of traded to nontraded goods across countries. Our framework sheds light on the propagation mechanisms through which monetary shocks affect the real exchange rate. More specifically, the two components respond in opposite directions to monetary disturbances, which is consistent with data. Besides, the introduction of nontraded goods does not alter the predictive power of monetary shocks because the presence of nontraded goods magnifies the response of the deviation from the law of one price.     

人口老龄化影响财政与货币政策的有效性吗?

文章将人口结构、财政支出结构和货币政策引入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡框架,重点分析了人口老龄化对我国宏观调控经济政策的影响.研究结果显示:除了人口老龄化自身对经济增长的负面影响,留给宏观调控政策的腾挪空间也越发有限?影响政策调控的有效性,增加政策实施的成本.(1)除了加重财政养老负担,人口老龄化更损害财政刺激效果和财政绩效质量,限制政府实施反周期政策的能力,压缩财政政策发挥的空间;(2)老年人主导的社会对通货膨胀的容忍度将不断下调,势必削弱货币政策刺激总需求能力,增加政策实施成本,迫使中央银行改变货币政策操作方式,可能采取更激进措施以实现相同效果,强化金融脆弱性;(3)相比增加人口生育率,提高劳动参与率既是缓解短期财政养老负担、保障养老融资可持续性的关键,也是有效增加劳动供给、改善政策发挥生态环境,进而提高财政政策与货币政策有效性的权宜之计.     

Modern Perspectives on Fiscal Stabilization Policies

The present paper describes recent research on two central themesof Keynes' General Theory: (i) the social waste associated withrecessions, and (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as astabilization tool. The paper also discusses some evidence onthe extent to which fiscal policy has been used as a stabilizingtool in industrial economies over the past two decades. (JELE32, E63)     

货币政策与财政政策的“新共识”

20世纪90年代以来,宏观经济政策领域出现了一种"新共识",近年来得到进一步发展。在"新共识"宏观经济模型中,货币存量不起作用,但货币政策被赋予非常重要的作用,货币政策可以决定通货膨胀;货币政策采用盯住通货膨胀的方式,通过调节利率将通货膨胀控制在一个较低的水平。财政政策在管理总需求水平方面仍然是一个强有力的工具,"新共识"宏观经济学体现了"货币主义与财政主义的综合"。     

Monetary Shocks, Inflation and the Asymmetric Adjustment of EU Output

Empirical studies have suggested that price rigidities ensure that real output responds asymmetrically to monetary shocks. Models advanced by Tsiddon and Ball and Mankiw argue that the degree of asymmetry to demand shocks is sensitive to inflation. This study tests whether this is the case for a sample of EU economies. Maximum likelihood estimation offers confirmation of output asymmetry in the cases of Germany and Italy but no such evidence in France and the UK.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

Abstract. This paper studies the design and effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area. To do so, a stylized two‐region model of monetary and fiscal policy rules in the EMU is built. We analyse how monetary and fiscal rules affect the adjustment dynamics in the model. Both the effects on the individual countries and on the EMU aggregate economy are studied. Three aspects play an important role in the analysis: (i) the consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policy rules, (ii) the consequences of asymmetries between EMU countries (asymmetries in macroeconomic shocks and macroeconomic structures), and (iii) the role of alternative degrees of backward‐ and forward‐looking behaviour in consumer decisions and inflation expectations.     

论财政政策与货币政策的有效搭配

货币政策有效性是近两年争论较多的问题,人们对货币政策效果的理解大都是从货币政策自身变化对经济增长的影响来分析的,事实上,货币政策的效果很大程度上依赖于其它宏观经济政策,尤其是财政政策的变化,因此,分析货币政策的效果要根据其它政策是否配合才能作出合理性判断,笔者认为,必须建立我国货币政策与财政政策有效搭配的协调机制,以及必须把握宏观调控的“度”和“时点”问题。     

我国货币需求的协整分析及其货币政策建议

本文运用协整以及弱外生和短期因果关系检验 ,对我国货币需求的长期稳定性进行实证 ,由此而产生的主要结论为 :我国货币需求的长期稳定性 (协整 )依赖于时间趋势 ,货币政策目标变量为M1,实际货币政策效应主要体现在促进经济增长。我国货币需求和利率是关于协整向量的弱外生变量。基于上述结论所提出的政策建议为 :当前的货币政策重点应转向于防范通胀