转轨经济中自然垄断产业的竞争与所有制研究

竞争与所有制改革是目前自然垄断产业规制改革的主要趋势.但原有的理论和经验都是针对发达国家而言,对于转轨国家如何协调经济转轨与自然垄断产业改革却没有现成的理论与经验.因此,本文关注转轨国家自然垄断产业引入竞争可能性以及所有制改革模式的选择.研究发现:考虑管理成本,转轨国家自然垄断产业引入竞争是可能的;改革进程取决于转轨国家市场发育程度以及改革的初始条件;混合所有制的企业竞争模式更适合于转轨国家自然垄断产业的改革.     

Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions

Aggregation of trade distortion measures is essential in applied work, but traditional trade‐weighted average measures are egregiously flawed. This paper shows how appropriate tariff aggregation can overcome underestimation of both efficiency and terms‐of‐trade gains from reform. The improvement is shown to result from better measurement of a distortion effect that is most important in the early stages of reform and a weighting effect that becomes more important as protection is reduced. Applications confirm that the technique can be applied relatively easily, and—with elasticity estimates suggested by the available econometric evidence—point to close to a doubling of the global welfare gains from global trade reform, and dramatic changes in the measured welfare impacts in many individual cases. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform, the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much more important than that between varieties from different countries. We provide an online aggregation tool to allow replication of our analysis or investigation of alternative scenarios for global reform. We hope that this paper will contribute both to wider use of optimal aggregators and improved estimates of the key elasticity parameters.     

The quality of human capital,educational reform and economic growth

Using a general equilibrium growth model with a costly schooling process, this paper analyses the effect on economic growth of educational reform that allocates more resources to the schooling sector to raise the quality of human capital. It shows that the positive effect of improved quality on the economic growth could be offset by the reverse effect of reduced human capital formation that arises from the distortion of resource reallocation. An appropriate tax-subsidy scheme is shown to remove this reverse effect of educational reform.     

政府经济职能:市场机制的补充者

转变政府职能是现阶段经济改革的一项主要任务,关系整个改革进程,因此,我们亟需寻求政府职能的恰当定位。政府经济职能不能定位于市场的替代者,而应定位于市场机制的补充者。把政府经济职能定位于市场机制的补充者是政府职能的真正回归。     

On Reform Intensity under Uncertainty

We model policy reform as a way to affect the stochastic process of relative returns that firms face when switching from old to new activities. This stochastic process has an Ito process component that is noncontrollable and policy reforms result in jumps in relative returns that arrive according to a Poisson process. The intensity of policy reform depends on the arrival rate and magnitude of jumps. We use a single firm model to understand the reaction of the firm to such a stochastic process and the usual hysteresis results in switching between old and new activities. Aggregation to the level of all firms leads to an appropriate definition of the government payoff function, and we use this to obtain the optimal level of reform. The results are as follows: there exists an optimal level of radical reform that overcomes the hysteresis behavior of firms; if such a level is not desirable, then the intensity of policy reform is not at an extreme point; and this gradual level of optimal reform is lower if uncertainty is higher.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 297–321. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142; Olin School of Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63130; and IBM, Armonk, New York 10504.     

人民币汇率制度改革:回归有管理的浮动

在人民币汇率制度改革过程中,确定汇率形成机制变革和汇率水平变化的优先次序至关重要。本文认为:机制改革优先,并且在改革过程中始终重视汇率稳定,应当是人民币汇率制度改革的基本战略。回归有管理的浮动汇率制度,是实施这一战略的适当选择。在回归有管理的浮动汇率制的过程中,货币错配构成我们的主要风险。为了有效管理这一风险,中国应保持较高水平的外汇储备,在稳步推行资本项目放松管制过程中加强针对货币错配问题的审慎性监管,实施稳健的宏观经济政策,促进资本市场发展。     

TAX-PRICE REFORM WITH DIRECTLY UNPRODUCTIVE PROFIT-SEEKING (DUP) ACTIVITIES*

This paper explores the extent to which insights available from existing writings on directly unproductive profit-seeking (DUP) activities in international trade modify rules of tax and tariff reform in normative public economics and examines in what way these should affect advice on tax policy usually given to developing countries. The analysis proceeds by developing two models. The first incorporates revenue seeking directly into a standard open economy public finance model and examines whether analysis of policy reform and economic costs of distortionary tariffs must be modified. The second includes a political component in the form of lobbying for subsidies – the expenditure side of the budget – as well as a normative economic component that raises taxes – the revenue side – to finance the social costs of such lobbying. The model can be used to determine the effects of politically determined expenditures on tax setting. The analysis shows that the grammar of welfare-theoretic arguments that underlies the reform and design of tax and tariff structures is robust to the inclusion of DUP activities of the type considered here. In particular, the latter lend no presumption in favor of uniformity in tax and tariff structures. It is argued that existing policy advice on tax and tariff reform derived from models where DUP activities have traditionally played no role continues to be appropriate when account is taken of formal treatments of DUP-type phenomena extant in the current literature.     

基于中国制度背景的动态业绩评价体系的构建

业绩评价是企业组织管理控制系统的重要组成部分,对企业的经营起着导向性作用,直接关系到企业核心竞争力的形成与保持。随着业绩评价体系的演变,基于制度背景来研究业绩评价体系越来越受到理论界和实务界的关注。通过回顾改革开放三十多年来中国国有企业业绩评价的改革过程,对中国现有的业绩评价体系进行评价,指出中国在借鉴西方的业绩评价方法的同时要以特殊的国情为背景,通过适当修改,建立适合中国制度背景的动态业绩评价体系才是可行之路。     

经济体制转轨时期的投资波动及其启示

本文采用实证方法， 将我国改革开放前后不同历史时期投资波动状态加以比较， 以充分、可靠、翔实的数据资料证明， 进入经济体制转轨时期， 我国的投资运行已呈现较为适度、平稳状态。并侧重从理论上分析了经济体制转轨时期投资波动新变化的原因和从中得到的启示。     

我国城市居民最低生活保障制度发展与完善研究——以长沙市为例

我国城市居民最低生活保障制度是我国实施比较成功的一项社会救助制度。目前，长沙的低保制度在制度设计和运行方面仍存在消极的救助取向、平均式的救助标准、配套政策的负激励效应以及管理监督体系不健全等一些问题。为此，有必要对其进行探索改革，通过采取积极的福利政策、制定科学的保障标准，推行分类施助和差异救助、建立健全低保制度的管理监督体系等积极措施解决其存在的问题，更好地发挥最低生活保障制度的有效功能。     

中国垄断行业运营模式模型研究

在全球经济日趋迅速变革,产业链不断重新划分的浪潮中,运营模式创新成为企业发展的必然选择.新的市场形势下,各行业产业链都在不断细分、拆解、重构、融合,这必然对企业原有运营模式提出了创新的要求.在这样的经济和市场背景下,只有那些有能力主动调整和设计全新运营模式的企业,才能在市场中常立不败之地.而垄断行业在国民经济中占有很高的比重,但长期滞后的中国垄断行业改革中问题不断暴露,作为渐近式改革中相对容易,但很重要的运营模式改革不断进行调整,因此,选择合适的垄断行业运营模式模型——技术、市场、政府规制和价值创造系统进行分析意义重大.     

Development Policy Lending, Conditionality, and Ownership: A Dynamic Agency Model Perspective

Is the World Bank's Development Policy Lending likely to enhance ownership and have greater effectiveness than structural adjustment? We specify a dynamic common agency model in which a government considering economic reform faces domestic opposition from interest groups. The dynamic specification, which is original in the context of policy reforms supported by the International Financial Institutions (IFIs), is essential to allow the strength of special interest groups to arise endogenously during the reform process. We show that conditionality may alter the country's political equilibrium and lead to higher social welfare. However, under certain circumstances which depend on country‐specific circumstances, conditional assistance could lead to lower social welfare. Thus, for conditionality not to be inconsistent with ownership, its design must be appropriate to the country circumstances and directly affect the domestic political constraint.     

对建立银行存款保险制度的分析研究

金融中介机构在现代市场经济中起着至关重要的作用,但是伴随着中国银行业市场化步伐的加快,金融领域的平静日益被打破,“优胜劣汰”的改革会使一些金融机构退出金融市场。为了保护这一退出过程中的存款者利益,构建良好的改革氛围,迫切要求我国尽快建立起存款保险制度。本文主要分析建立存款保险制度的时机选择,并结合我国实际情况,提出中国建立存款保险制度的构想。     

经济欠发达地区农民家庭经营性纯收入增长影响因素的经济学分析

运用适当的经济数学模型,对我国改革开放以来及2002年全国各地农民的收入进行分解分析,寻求影响农民收入增长的主要因素,再分析我国当前的实际情况,指出我国农民收入增长缓慢的关键问题所在,最后就反映出来的问题提出对策。     

网络背景下的税收管辖权问题研究

税收管辖权主要分为两种,一种是属人管辖权,另一种是属地管辖权。但是,不论是属人税收管辖权还是属地税收管辖权都是一种不完全的税收管辖权,都存在许多征税漏洞。对国际税收法律体制进行适合于电子商务的改造或者变革,不仅仅是一项法律制度通常的改变,而是具有划时代意义的举措,这表明从此以后我们不但要关注现实的世界,还要时时留意那个数字化空间的影响。从这一意义上说,电子商务税收法律制度必定是一个十分重大的命题。     

文化产业的战略地位与发展途径

文化产业是经济建设的新干线,是21世纪最有前途的产业之一,并为精神文明建设开辟了新途径。应加快文化体制 改革,建立新型管理体制和运行机制,以优势特色文化产业为重点,提高科技含量,培育品牌企业,促使文化产业走集团化、规 模化经营道路。     

我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。     

医疗卫生产业化改革研究综述

看病难、看病贵在全国范围内是一个普遍存在的问题,深化医疗卫生体制改革是解决该问题的重要途径之一。然而,医改是世界难题。2005年,国务院作出了中国医改基本不成功的结论。学术界和实业界有关人士把前一阶段医改的失败归因于＂过度市场化＂,新医改方案也特别强调政府的作用。而由于一直以来,理论界对于＂市场化＂和＂产业化＂均没有形成统一的概念和认识,二者经常被混淆,因此目前医疗卫生产业化的提法显得相当谨慎。该研究系统分析了市场与产业的区别,在此基础上明确市场化与产业化的本质差别;对医疗卫生产业化的内涵进行了综述和界定,对医疗卫生是否应该产业化的正反两方观点进行总结和评析,提出在当前国情下,医疗卫生应该继续走产业化改革和发展之路,并着重讨论了医疗卫生产业化发展的背景和意义、遇到的困难障碍及应对思路。     

A dirty deed done dirt cheap: Reporting the blame of a national reform on local politicians

This paper tests the hypothesis that upper-level governments can transfer the accountability of the costs of a reform to a lower one. The reform of the school week in France provides the ground for a verification of the attribution of accountability hypothesis, as it was nationally decided and locally implemented, right before a municipal election. The results confirm that local incumbents have taken the blame of the reform, especially in larger cities. In this case, thus, the cost of the reform is borne twice by the lower level of government, financially and politically. So doing, the central government does a dirty deed to the local ones, for a very cheap cost. That mayors who have announced a boycott of the reform have received electoral gains confirms that some local politicians expected to be the fall guys, bearing the brunt of the costs of the reform.     

乡镇财政解困研究:基于基层政区改革的视角

乡镇财政困境成为近年来"三农"问题研究的热点,对此的破解思路也已有诸多探索。然而总体来说,多数学者将乡镇财政解困的研究视野锁定在乡镇财政体制机制上,忽视了乡镇财政体制与基层政区组织之间的逻辑关联与互动效应。文章试图通过理论分析、逻辑推理来指出基层政区改革是研究和破解乡镇财政困难的一个恰当视角,并进一步通过文献佐证和案例印证来证实通过基层政区改革来实现乡镇财政解困的科学性与合理性。