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中国进出口价格弹性研究 总被引:28,自引:1,他引:28
本文通过建立中国进出口弹性模型和行业计量经济模型,测算和研究了中国进出口弹性问题.主要研究结论是:第一,中国中长期出口价格弹性和进口价格弹性分别为-0.8579和-1.0774;第二,中国大部分行业的出口价格弹性小于1,特别是农业、石油及天然气开采业、纺织业、化学工业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业以及社会服务业价格弹性绝对值都在0.5左右.适当提高价格对增加这些部门的收入是有利的;第三,中国大部分行业进口需求价格弹性小于或接近于1;石油及天然气开采业的进口价格需求弹性为异常值,为 1.3148,说明:对于原油这样的战略性物资应该反市场操作,中东出现安全时价低时吃进以为战略储备,而出现危机时抛出以平抑国内原油市场价格的加速上扬. 相似文献
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以不完全替代理论为基础建立中国进出口需求模型,并运用该模型对我国1995~2008年间的各行业进出口的价格弹性和收入弹性进行估计与检验,估计结果表明:我国各类进口品的国内替代程度普遍较低,有必要全面促进国内进口替代行业的发展;制成品进口中电子类和医药类进口的收入弹性较大,着力发展电子类和医药类产品的国内进口替代,将有利于减少对国外市场的依赖;中国所有制成品出口需求的世界收入弹性都非常高,说明中国出口产品易受世界经济波动的冲击,因此有必要提高中国各项出口品在国际市场的综合竞争力。。 相似文献
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本文运用中国工业31个行业1998年-2004年的面板数据,分析了能源价格、FDI的进入程度、进出口商品结构、工业内部的行业结构和R&D投资强度对中国工业能源强度的影响。研究发现,能源价格的上涨对提高工业能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;降低FDI的进入程度与R&D投资强度都有助于降低工业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度;降低高能源强度行业的出口额在工业出口总额中的比重,有利于降低高能源强度行业的能源强度,进口商品结构变化对工业能源强度没有显著影响;降低高能源强度行业的工业增加值在整个工业增加值中的比重,有助于降低全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度。 相似文献
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自2001年国内燃料油定价放开后,燃料油成为中国石油及石油产品中市场化程度较高的一个品种,2004年国家取消进口配额后,实行进口自动管理许可,我国燃料油市场与国际市场基本接轨。近年来,国际市场燃料油价格跟随原油价格波动剧烈,燃料油生产、消费企业和相关贸易商都面临着市场风险,在此情况下,企业参加套期保值显得十分必要,可以有效规避市场风险,稳定经营预期。 相似文献
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采用2004~2010年中国各行业不同能源类型的相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的计算方法,计算了中国工业分行业各类能源消耗碳排放量;并应用LMDI法对中国工业分行业能源消耗碳排放量影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:在这7年中,中国工业能源消费碳排放年均增长8.18%,比工业增加值平均增速高5.26%;在对经济增长、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构四个因素的分析中可知,经济增长和能源强度的升高是中国能源碳排放持续增长的主导原因,能源结构对减少碳排放有较小贡献,产业结构对促进中国工业能源碳排放减少有很大贡献。通过对中国工业三大行业的进一步分析可知,制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业对中国工业能源碳排放的增加有较大影响。 相似文献
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自2001年国内燃料油定价放开后,燃料油成为中国石油及石油产品中市场化程度较高的一个品种,2004年国家取消进口配额后,实行进口自动管理许可,我国燃料油市场与国际市场基本接轨.近年来,国际市场燃料油价格跟随原油价格波动剧烈,燃料油生产、消费企业和相关贸易商都面临着市场风险,在此情况下,企业参加套期保值显得十分必要,可以有效规避市场风险,稳定经营预期. 相似文献
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Although Korea was the world's seventh largest oil consumer and fourth largest oil importer, relatively little attention has been paid to empirical analyses of the Korean crude oil market. In this paper, we have attempted to expand the scope of previous literature by examining Korea's import demand for crude oil in a dynamic framework of cointegration. The empirical focus is on assessing the short- and long-run relationships among volume of crude oil import, economic growth and price of imported crude oil in Korea. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to quarterly data for 1986–2010. Results show that income level is a more powerful determinant of the long-run behavior of Korea's crude oil imports than crude oil price. In the short-run, on the other hand, oil price is found to play a more important role in determining crude oil imports than income level. 相似文献
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It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand. 相似文献
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陈淮 《国际技术经济研究》2001,4(4):17-20
2000年国际油价的剧烈变动并非是由供求关系变化引起。国际油价暴涨对发达国家和国际大资本有利。考虑到后备资源严重不足的现状,中国将可能是国际油价大幅波动的最主要受害国。中国石油进口的增长速度要远比前期估计快得多。我们需要有一支采用金融化操作方式、介入投机性运作、从事风险贸易的强大力量,一方面从市场的价格波动中博取更多国际比较收益,另一方面保证对国内需求的均衡供给。 相似文献
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Developing countries pay substantially higher transportation costs than developed nations, which leads to less trade and perhaps lower incomes. This paper investigates price discrimination in the shipping industry and the role it plays in determining transportation costs. In the presence of market power, shipping prices depend on the demand characteristics of goods being traded. We show theoretically and estimate empirically that ocean cargo carriers charge higher prices when transporting goods with higher product prices, lower import demand elasticities, and higher tariffs, and when facing fewer competitors on a trade route. These characteristics explain more variation in shipping prices than do conventional proxies such as distance, and significantly contribute to the higher shipping prices facing the developing world. A simple back of the envelope calculation suggests that eliminating market power in shipping would boost trade volumes by 5.9% (for the US) to 15.2% (for Latin America). Our findings are also important for evaluating the impact of tariff liberalization. Cargo carriers decrease shipping prices by 1–2% for every 1% reduction in tariffs. 相似文献
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Augustine Arize 《Applied economics》2013,45(9):1233-1247
Previous studies on the behaviour of aggregate exports and imports have tended to ignore the simultaneous relationship between quantity and price. This paper investigates the price responsiveness of export and import demand and supply in eight African countries. The results indicate that export demand price elasticities are smaller when the sample is African. The import supply and demand elasticities were found to be generally large. The Marshall–Lerner condition of balance of payment stability is found to be easily satisfied. A positively sloped function of export supply is found to exist for a majority of countries in the sample. The average time lag of export supply is found to be about a year. The disequilibrium model is found to be more appropriate for import demand, import supply and export supply. 相似文献
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Using microdata from a U.S. retailer we document that customer turnover responds to pricing. We study the optimal price setting of a firm when its demand has an extensive margin that is elastic to price due to customers' opportunity to search for an alternative supplier. The price pass‐through of idiosyncratic productivity shocks is incomplete, with the most productive firms passing through more. Firm demand is more persistent than price. Higher demand is associated with lower markups due to higher search intensity, despite flexible prices. We find empirical support for these predictions in microdata from the retail industry. 相似文献
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We provide an econometric model of passenger and freight transportation demand based on panel data for 10 sections of toll roads in Slovenia. Transportation demand on Slovenian motorways is price inelastic. The price elasticity of transportation demand statistically varies among different parts of the toll sections, so it would seem sensible to introduce a differentiated toll system that would allow the simultaneous achievement of multiple objectives, such as increasing the internalization of the external costs of transport, increasing transportation demand management on the basis of price and increasing cost recovery for the maintenance and development of toll roads in Slovenia. Transportation demand is even more responsive to changes in fuel price than changes in tolls, so transportation policy can manage transportation demand using differences in fuel prices. Based on estimates of demand models differentiated according to several geographical groups of road sections, we also find that growth in the price elasticity of transportation demand in Slovenia can be achieved through the expansion of the transport supply by increasing the competitiveness of rail transport and alternative transportation routes. 相似文献
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M. S Alam 《International economic journal》2013,27(4):63-69
Decreasing transport costs are incorporated in the standard partial equilibrium analysis of trade by allowing the divergence—introduced by transport costs—between export and import price to decrease with the volume of trade. When the excess demand (supply) curve is steeper than the long run average cost curve for imports (exports), we observe that an import (export) tariff raises (lowers) the domestic price by an amount exceeding the tariff. Further, when the excess demand (Supply) curve is less steep than the long run average cost curve for imports (exports), the possibility exists that an import (export) tariff may lower (raise) the domestic price. These results lead to the important conclusion that tariffs cannot be used as measures of nominal protection across industries. [F10] 相似文献
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我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
我国航空运输服务业从宏观上分析具有寡头垄断的市场结构特点,从航线运营的角度分析却具有垄断竞争的特点,因此我国航空运输服务市场还处在重要的发展变革阶段。在我国空运市场特定的经济环境下,旅客的购买决策受到多种因素的影响,航空公司的价格竞争主要表现为不同价格的子舱位数量的决策,并且具有复杂的价格体系。在同一航线上经营的不同企业一方面要针对价格需求弹性大和时间需求弹性大的旅客采取强硬的价格竞争策略;另一方面也要注重差异化价格竞争策略, 避免恶性竞争的发生。 相似文献
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E. Dwight Phaup 《Journal of Macroeconomics》1981,3(1):97-115
This paper provides estimates, using a traditional import demand model, of the demand for imports on a bilateral basis among nine industrialized nations. These estimates provide greater detail about price and income elasticities, but in general are consistent with earlier, aggregate import demand studies with respect to conclusions about the effects of secular and cyclical income changes on trade balances and whether sufficiently high price elasticities are present to insure that the Marshall-Lerner stability condition is met. 相似文献