The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

Productivity differences in an interdependent world

This paper studies cross-country differences in productivity from an open economy perspective by using a Helpman-Krugman-Heckscher-Ohlin model that embraces the single-cone model and a one-sector economy with factor deepening as particular cases. To estimate the model, I combine tools from development accounting and the factor content of trade literature. When simultaneously fitting data on income, factor prices and the factor content of trade, I find that the one-sector model is by far better supported by the data than the single-cone model. Rich countries have far higher productivities of human capital than poor ones, while differences in physical capital productivity are not related to income per worker. Finally, I estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between human and physical capital that is significantly below one.     

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AMONG THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION COUNTRIES: Linder Effect on Developed and Developing Countries (1985–1999)

This study tests the income similarity effect developed by Linder on the developed and developing APEC countries. A modified gravity model is estimated for fourteen APEC countries based on trade data from 1985 to 1999. The result confirms early prediction that the income similarity effect is stronger for developed APEC countries. The developed APEC countries with similar per capita incomes tend to trade more with each other during the study period. In addition, the level of trade between the APEC countries can be predicted by their economic characteristics. The result reveals that trade between the APEC countries would increase as their economies become more developed.     

Timing of trade liberalization

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on growth and long-run global income inequality using a two-country model of human capital accumulation by credit-constrained households. I show that the timing of trade liberalization is a crucial determinant of its effects on growth. Moreover, I show that the size of the long-run income gap between the two countries depends on the difference in domestic income inequality when they open up to trade. Based on these results, I analyze the effects of redistributive policy within a country. I show that redistribution in one country may increase income per capita of its trading partner if it is undertaken in a steady state, while the opposite is true if the policy is undertaken during transition.     

On the Incidence of US Tariffs

This paper provides evidence on the incidence of tariffs on products of export interest to developing countries by investigating the relationship between per capita incomes of US trading partners and tariff rates. It constitutes the first attempt to assess the incidence of tariffs imposed by the US on countries that span the entire range of per capita incomes. Average tariff rates are lower for the poorest and richest countries and higher for countries in the middle of the income distribution. This finding is not consistent with the widely held view that tariffs used by industrial nations bear more heavily on products of export interest to poorer developing countries than on imports from industrial nations. It is consistent with the tariff escalation pattern reported in earlier studies if advanced countries account for most products at the high end of the fabrication scale. Results show that poorest countries will find it difficult to escape tariffs by attaining higher levels of economic development.     

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification

This paper shows that improved trade facilitation can help promote export diversification in developing countries. We find that 10 per cent reductions in the costs of international transport and domestic exporting costs (documentation, inland transport, port and customs charges) are associated with export diversification gains of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively, in a sample of 118 developing countries. Customs costs play a particularly important role in these results. Lower market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the effect is weaker (1 per cent). We also find evidence that trade facilitation has stronger effects on diversification in poorer countries. Our results are highly robust to estimation using alternative dependent and independent variables, different country samples, and alternative econometric techniques. We link these findings to recent advances in trade theory that emphasise firm heterogeneity, and trade growth at the extensive margin.     

Product quality and the direction of trade

A substantial amount of theoretical work predicts that quality plays an important role as a determinant of the global patterns of bilateral trade. This paper develops an empirical framework to estimate the empirical relevance of this prediction. In particular, it identifies the effect of quality operating on the demand side through the relationship between per capita income and aggregate demand for quality. The model yields predictions for bilateral flows at the sectoral level and is estimated using cross-sectional data for bilateral trade among 60 countries in 1995. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction: rich countries tend to import relatively more from countries that produce high-quality goods.     

TRADE,NON‐SCALE GROWTH AND UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT

This paper investigates the relationship between trade and economic development using a two‐country, non‐scale growth model. Depending on the share of the expenditure for manufactured goods, we obtain two different results with regard to long‐run production patterns. Whether or not the follower country can catch up with the leader country in the long run depends on two factors: (1) the patterns of production in both countries and (2) the measure of economic welfare that is used, i.e. per capita income or per capita consumption.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Aid for trade and trade policy in recipient countries

ABSTRACT

This article explores the impact of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on trade policy in 123 recipient countries over the period of 2002 to 2015. It shows empirical evidence that AfT interventions are conducive to trade policy liberalization. These results apply to both the entire sample and to the sub-sample of least developed countries (LDCs). Additionally, the analysis shows that the lower the development level, the higher the positive impact of AfT inflows on recipient countries’ trade policy liberalization, although above the US$ 4,885.40 threshold of real per capita income, AfT inflows exert no significant impact on trade policy.     

Why Are Agricultural Goods Not Traded More Intensively: High Trade Costs or Low Productivity Variation?

This paper empirically studies the sizes of agricultural trade costs and productivity variation in the agriculture sector. In a general Ricardian trade model, I identify these two factors as possible causes of the observed low trade intensity of agricultural goods. Using data on bilateral trade flows, prices of agricultural goods and sectoral production from a sample of 46 countries, I estimate the variation of agricultural productivity as well as trade costs on agricultural and manufactured goods. I find that trade costs are substantial, with agricultural trade costs roughly twice as large as manufacturing trade costs. Moreover, consistent with the existing literature, I find that distance is the dominant part in the estimated trade costs. Lastly, relative to existing estimates of the heterogeneity of manufacturing productivity, the heterogeneity of agricultural productivity is large. These findings suggest that high trade costs are the main impediments to agricultural trade.     

Factors Influencing China’s Exports with a Spatial Econometric Model

This article employs a spatial econometric model to examine whether China’s exports are affected by political risk, economic integration, and spatial effects. The results show that as China’s economy has grown, a home market effect is evident for its exports. A higher level of economic integration is beneficial to China’s exports. A substitutive relationship is discovered between China’s OFDI and exports. In addition, the higher income per capita of partner countries and the high degree of economic openness are both beneficial to China’s exports. The partner countries of China, with their higher values of export trade, have been mostly countries with lower political risk.     

Technology Trade in Economic Development

Recent evidence on the respective contributions of institutions and trade to income levels across countries has demonstrated that – once endogeneity is considered – institutional quality clearly dominates the effect of trade. We argue that overall trade is not the most appropriate measure for technology diffusion as a source of productivity growth and propose to focus on imports of research and development (R&D)‐intensive goods instead. Overall, we confirm previous findings that institutions matter most and that overall trade is not positively associated with per‐capita income levels. Yet this does not hold for technology trade, as there is a positive and significant linkage between technology imports and income levels. This outcome is robust to various model specifications, including an instrumental variables approach.     

The biggest losers (and winners) from US trade liberalization

Many development experts worry that continuing reductions of tariff levels in high-income countries will limit trade flows from developing countries that benefit from preferential trade programs because of ‘preference erosion.’ Using a panel of US import data between the years of 1997 and 2005, I find that reductions in preference margins will significantly diminish imports of some products, particularly from lower-middle and low income countries; for example, a 1% reduction in the US tariff on a product that is currently imported duty-free from developing countries will decrease imports of that product from lower-middle income countries by an average of 2.6%. However, many products produced by developing countries fail to qualify for preferential tariffs, thus a gradual reduction in all US tariff rates is expected to have only a modest impact on trade flows from developing countries.     

International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence

We present a model of trade and search-induced unemployment, where trade results from Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) and/or Ricardian comparative advantage. Using cross-country data on trade policy, unemployment, and various controls, and controlling for endogeneity and measurement-error problems, we find fairly strong and robust evidence for the Ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade openness are negatively related. This effect dominates the positive H-O effect of trade openness on unemployment for capital-abundant countries, which turns negative for labor-abundant countries. Using panel data, we find an unemployment-increasing short-run impact of trade liberalization, followed by an unemployment-reducing effect leading to the new steady state.     

Drivers of international tourism demand in Africa

Despite Africa’s potential for tourism, the continent’s tourism endowments are still largely underdeveloped and underutilized. The identification and enquiry into the drivers of international tourism demand in Africa is key to any effort to understand and explain changes in tourism demand in Africa. This study estimates a Poisson regression model to determine the key drivers of international tourism demand in 44 African countries, employing annual data over the period 1995–2015. The outcomes of the Poisson regression show that taste formation, real exchange rate, infrastructure, political stability and absence of violence, per capita income, FDI, and trade openness are significant drivers of international tourism into Africa. However, travel costs and domestic prices are not significant drivers of the decision to travel to Africa.     

Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won,which lost?

The world average exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports-to-GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

Why So Small? Explaining the Size of Firms in Latin America

On average, Latin American firms are small with respect to world patterns, both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and the amount of employment they generate. We examine data on firm size from developed and developing countries around the world to assess the influence of demand, supply and institutional factors on the size of the largest firms in each country. We find that, besides the size of the economy and the level of income per capita, the key determinants of the size of firms are trade openness, stock market capitalisation and physical infrastructure. Our simulations suggest that if the gaps with respect to the best Latin American performer were closed in each of these three areas, firm size in the countries of the region would – on average – reach world patterns.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.