Trade and the location of industries: Some new results

We study a two-country two-sector model with free entry and monopolistic competition where both industries use labour to produce differentiated goods. The two countries are identical except for size. Labour is freely mobile across industries but it cannot move internationally. Transport costs affect both industries. The location of industries and the pattern of trade are the results of the interaction of two effects: the home market effect and the wage differential effect. The main results are: (i) if the two countries are sufficiently close in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), a continuous fall in transport costs from a prohibitive level to zero is associated with a reversal in the pattern of trade at some intermediate level. For large transport costs, the large country is a net exporter of the more differentiated good. For lower transport costs, the large country becomes a net exporter of the less differentiated good; (ii) if the two countries are very different in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), the larger country is always a net exporter of the less differentiated good.     

Does lumpiness matter in an open economy?: Studying international economics with regional data

This paper addresses the empirical question whether the regional distribution of production factors within countries is ever so uneven that it triggers specialization of production that makes regions produce different sets of goods at different factor prices. Due to the different welfare effects of trade policy in a country with regional specialization, this is an important question. In addition, it is a question about the legitimacy of treating a country as a relatively homogenous unit. In answering these questions, I implement the concept of “lumpiness” as introduced by Courant and Deardorff [J. Polit. Econ. 100 (1992) 198]. I find that lumpiness or an uneven regional distribution of production factors that induces intranational specialization and different regional factor prices is not an issue for Japan, the United Kingdom and maybe not even for India.     

Specialization dynamics

This paper proposes a new empirical framework for analyzing specialization dynamics. A country’s pattern of specialization is viewed as a distribution across sectors, and statistical techniques for analyzing the evolution of this entire distribution are employed. The empirical framework is implemented using data on 20 industries in seven OECD countries since 1970. We find substantial mobility in patterns of specialization. Over time horizons of 5 years, this is largely explained by forces common across countries, including world prices and common changes in technical efficiency. Over longer time horizons, country-specific changes in factor endowments become more important. There is no evidence of an increase in countries’ overall degree of specialization.     

On the origins of comparative advantage

This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit. There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of each task, which creates gains from specialization, and uncertainty in the enforcement of each contract, which create transaction costs. The trade-off between these two forces pins down the size of productive teams across sectors in each country. Under free trade, the country where teams are larger specializes in the more complex goods. In our model, it is the country where the product of institutional quality and human per worker capital is larger. Hence, better institutions and more educated workers are complementary sources of comparative advantage in the more complex industries.     

The structure of factor content predictions

The last decade witnessed an explosion of research into the impact of international technology differences on the factor content of trade. Yet the literature has failed to confront two pivotal issues. First, with international technology differences and traded intermediate inputs, there is no existing definition of the factor content of trade that is compatible with Vanek's factor content prediction. We fill this gap. Second, as Helpman and Krugman (1985) showed, many models beyond Heckscher-Ohlin imply the Vanek prediction. Thus, absent a complete list of these models, we do not fully know what models are being tested when the Vanek prediction is tested. We completely characterize the class of models being tested by providing a familiar consumption similarity condition that is necessary and sufficient for a robust Vanek prediction. Finally, we reassess the performance of the prediction using the correct factor content definition and input-output tables for 41 countries. We find that the prediction performs well except for the presence of missing trade. Further, missing trade is not pervasive: it is associated entirely with ‘home bias’ in the consumption of agricultural goods, government services and construction.     

Vertical Specialization Across Developed Countries

This article explains why a large part of vertical specialization in production takes place across developed countries. By introducing the concept “the Ideal Intermediate Good” it is shown that there are incentives for vertical collaboration between an intermediate good producer and a final good producer. The purpose of locating the intermediate good production in an identical host country is to come closer to the most suitable intermediate good. Thereby the variable costs in the final good production are reduced. When the final good production takes place in one company, we have a vertical integrated multinational enterprise, which splits its production across identical countries. By inclusion of internal economies of scale and transport costs the problem becomes much more complex, and a reallocation of welfare between the countries can be the result.     

Industrial Policy in the United States

Does US government policy purposefully benefit particular industries or is industrial policy absent in the USA? Based on a review of recent US policies this paper argues that the USA applies many policies with an industry-specific impact. But these policies do not differ significantly from those in other countries and the process in which US industrial policies emerge severely limits their consistency. What differentiates the USA is a microeconomic business environment that enables a high degree of regional specialization, benefits especially knowledge-driven industries, and raises the impact of innovation and entrepreneurship policies.     

The persistence of emerging market equity flows

The portfolio flows of institutional investors have been found to be highly persistent across countries and individual investment funds. This paper investigates the source of this persistence in emerging market equities. We employ the decomposition methodology in NBER Working Paper no. 9079 (July 2002), which decomposes the persistence of flows into four components: (i) own-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from informed trading within each country by individual funds); (ii) own-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchronicities across funds); (iii) cross-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchonicities within a fund) and (iv) cross-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from other reaction lags—such as contagion—across both countries and funds). We find evidence that all four components are positive in emerging markets. Our results differ from those in developed countries, in that we attribute approximately 10–20% of total persistence to cross-country effects (iii) and (iv). These findings are consistent with stories of contagion, which suggest that demand shifts move predictably from one country to another. They cannot easily be explained by informed trading alone or by wealth effects.     

Low-wage country competition and the quality content of high-wage country exports

We study how competition from low-wage countries in international markets affects the quality content of high-wage country exports. We focus on aggregate quality changes driven by a reallocation of sales from low- to high-quality exporters, within industries. Two alternative indicators are used on firm-level data to measure quality changes. Both lead to similar conclusions. Namely, we show that the mean quality of French exports increased by 10–15% between 1995 and 2005. Quality improvement is significantly more pronounced in markets in which competition from low-wage countries has increased the most. This holds true for various specifications including two different identification strategies. The results are consistent with competition from low-wage countries leading developed countries to specialize within industries in the production of higher quality goods.     

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions vs. greenfield foreign direct investment: The role of firm heterogeneity

We develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to address two sets of questions: (1) what are the characteristics of firms that choose the various modes of foreign market access (exporting, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A), and (2) how does the international organization of production vary across industries and country-pairs? We show that the answers to these questions depend on the nature of firm heterogeneity. Depending on whether firms differ in their mobile or immobile capabilities, cross-border mergers involve the most or the least efficient active firms. The comparative statics on industry and country characteristics display a similar dichotomy.     

Globalisation and the Spatial Concentration of Production

(1240) Friederike Niepmann and Gabriel J. Felbermayr In new trade theory (NTT) models, freer trade tends to increase the spatial concentration of industrial production across countries. While nations with large home markets and central geographical location become increasingly attractive business locations, small peripheral countries gradually deindustrialise. Using data for 26 industries, 20 OECD countries and 20 years, we investigate the empirical validity of this claim. Separating out the role of home market size from geographical factors, and using various panel methods, we find robust evidence in line with theory. Freer trade has indeed magnified the importance of domestic demand and geographical location for the pattern of industrial production across the globe and has therefore exacerbated spatial disparities.     

Networks of foreign affiliates: Evidence from Japanese micro-data

The paper provides evidence of the investment patterns of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) across countries and industries and analyses the main drivers of their location strategies, using detailed micro-data on Japanese parents and their affiliates including the final destination of affiliate sales. The breakdown of affiliate sales by destination market reveals that Japanese MNEs establish services affiliates primarily to maximise proximity to local customers, while foreign affiliates in manufacturing sectors tend to engage more widely with third countries. Yet, some economies emerge as strategic gateways to other destinations in their region. The empirical analysis delves into the drivers of host country attractiveness for FDI seeking new markets, production efficiency and to act as regional or global platforms. Important factors shaping Japanese FDI decisions include trade and investment policies in goods and services, deep FTAs, as well as streamlined customs procedures. Furthermore, well-calibrated rules for digital commerce and investments in digital infrastructure and innovation contribute to attracting MNEs. Overall, the paper stresses the factors behind better integration into global production networks and the policy priorities to attract various types of FDI inflows.     

Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants

This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. Motivated by the factor proportions framework, we introduce a new measure of industry exposure to international trade that focuses on where imports originate rather than on their overall level. We find that plant survival and growth are negatively associated with industry exposure to low-wage country imports. Within industries, we show that manufacturing activity is disproportionately reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Finally, we provide the first evidence that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade pressures. Plants are more likely to switch industries when exposure to low-wage countries is high.     

产品内国际生产分工对中国的劳动需求效应分析——基于制造业转移承接国的视角

从国际产业转移承接国角度,借鉴Falk等提出的标准劳动需求方程模型,基于中国2002—2007年25个制造业行业面板数据,实证考察了产品内国际生产分工对中国劳动需求的总量效应和结构效应。研究结论显示,中国参与产品内国际生产分工促进了劳动需求总量的增长,但其对不同行业的影响程度表现出很大的差异。其中,劳动密集型产业、高技术行业和出口导向型行业的产品内国际生产分工对中国劳动需求的增长具有积极的促进作用,而资本密集型行业和进口替代型行业的产品内国际生产分工对劳动需求的增长存在负面效应。因此,进一步促进产业结构调整、消除行业就业壁垒和促进人力资本升级是中国深化国际分工的关键所在。     

Sources of variation in firm profitability and growth

This article reports an analysis of the sources of variation in profitability and growth for manufacturing firms located in eleven European countries. A variance decomposition analysis determines the importance of the country, industry, corporate group and firm effects on profitability and growth. The analysis reveals evidence of differences between industries in the comparative advantage offered by different countries, reflecting a tendency for specialization and geographic concentration. However, as in several previous studies, the firm-level effects are the most important class of effect in explaining the variation in performance.     

Regime Dependent Sensitivity of Country Exchange Traded Funds to Common Risk Factors

If common factors jointly affect country stock markets, it is an indication of global stock market integration. Common factors may affect some markets more/less than other markets, an indication of the degree of global stock market integration/ segmentation. In this paper, we study the integration of global stock markets based on the returns on exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Australia and Japan. The relationship between country ETF returns and common risk factors may be time-varying across countries, and that favors a regime switching (RS) factor model for the dynamics of the country ETF returns. A RS factor model for the relationship between country ETF returns and common risk factors is fitted to daily data for the period from May 31, 2000 to March 31, 2014. We use the data to test a hierarchy of hypotheses on country ETF returns: (1) common factor exposure across all country ETFs and all regimes; (2) common factor exposure across some country ETFs and all regimes, and (3) common factor exposure across some country ETFs and some regimes. The RS factor model for ETF returns fits the data well and the common factors have variable effects across countries and over regimes.     

Pattern and Determinants of United States' Intra-Industry Trade

This study identifies country and industry-level determinants of intra-industry trade and its components, vertical (VIIT) and horizontal (HIIT) intra-industry trade, in bilateral U.S. trade. Unlike studies for other countries, U.S. intra-industry trade is found to be dominated by HIIT rather than VIIT. This finding is important because HIIT tends to have relatively low factor adjustment costs relative to VIIT. Industry specialization takes place within, rather than across, product lines within the same industry. Two new variables contribute to our understanding of intra-industry trade. Country-level product differentiation and the interaction between technological innovation and foreign direct investment are found to be important determinants of both HIIT and VIIT. Distance, foreign direct investment flows, scale economies, and seller concentration affect HIIT but not VIIT. Other influences exert similar influences on components of intra-industry trade.     

Where does ESG pay? The role of national culture in moderating the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance

This study investigates the moderating role of a country’s culture as an external contingency factor in the relationship between a firm’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and financial performance. Using ESG performance data of 4978 firms from 48 countries for 17 years, we argue that the financial return from engaging in ESG varies depending on the countries’ cultural aspects because stakeholder evaluations and appreciations for a firm’s ESG performance differ across nations. We find that a country that espouses a culture of high individualism or masculinity tends to appreciate and reflect on this more explicitly, strengthening the relationship between a firm’s ESG performance and financial performance. Contrastingly, in a country with a culture of high power distance or uncertainty avoidance, firms’ ESG efforts are less likely to be associated with financial performance. Our findings have important implications for multinational enterprises facing various cultural environments when dealing with heterogeneous stakeholder demands across countries.     

Labour–Intensive Industrialization in Hong Kong, 1950–70: A Note on Sources and Methods

This research note critiques published quantitative sources on employment in manufacturing enterprises during a crucial epoch of rapid industrialization, and uses newly discovered archival sources to investigate organizational dualism, the co-existence of labour and capital-intensive modes of production. New quantitative data demonstrates that a high proportion of the industrial workforce was employed in small enterprises, notably workshops using labour-intensive techniques. New surveys of two ‘traditional’ Hong Kong industries (rattan ware furniture and basket ware; and umbrella making) show that factory, workshop, and home-based production co-existed within the same sector across the whole period, 1950–70.     

General Purpose Technologies and local knowledge accumulation — A study on MNC subunits and local innovation centers

This research looks into the innovative activities of subunits of large non-U.S firms in the U.S from 1969 to 1995, suggesting that the innovations in the subunits of multinational corporations are closely linked to their specializations in General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). GPTs enable recombining knowledge from different domains on an international scale, and that the specialization of innovations in GPT fields within a subunit is positively associated with the innovative capacity at large, along with the degree of technological diversification of that specific subunit. As firms expand geographically to tap into local innovation centers to develop new growth alternatives, specialization of GPTs in these firms actually facilitates further geographical dispersion of innovative activities across locations. Lastly, additional specializations of innovations in GPT fields within the host innovation centers does help in attracting innovation activities of firms from a wider range of industries.