A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap

The paper proposes a framework for modelling cointegration in fractionally integrated processes, and considers methods for testing the existence of cointegrating relationships using the parametric bootstrap. In these procedures, ARFIMA models are fitted to the data, and the estimates used to simulate the null hypothesis of non-cointegration in a vector autoregressive modelling framework. The simulations are used to estimate p-values for alternative regression-based test statistics, including the F goodness-of-fit statistic, the Durbin–Watson statistic and estimates of the residual d. The bootstrap distributions are economical to compute, being conditioned on the actual sample values of all but the dependent variable in the regression. The procedures are easily adapted to test stronger null hypotheses, such as statistical independence. The tests are not in general asymptotically pivotal, but implemented by the bootstrap, are shown to be consistent against alternatives with both stationary and nonstationary cointegrating residuals. As an example, the tests are applied to the series for UK consumption and disposable income. The power properties of the tests are studied by simulations of artificial cointegrating relationships based on the sample data. The F test performs better in these experiments than the residual-based tests, although the Durbin–Watson in turn dominates the test based on the residual d.     

A note on theE-optimality of block designs

Summary In this paper we consider the problem of determiningE-optimal block designs for experimental situations in whichv treatments are to be tested onn experimental units arranged inb blocks and where the block sizes and number of replications assigned to the treatments are allowed to vary. Some sufficient conditions are obtained for designs to beE-optimal in these situations and methods for constructing designs which satisfy the sufficient conditions given are also derived.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-person Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining solution under pre-donations

This study examines the behavior of simple n-person bargaining problems under pre-donations where the Kalai-Smorodinsky (KS) solution is operant. Pre- donations are a unilateral commitment to transfer a portion of one’s utility to someone else, and are used to distort the bargaining set and thereby influence the bargaining solution. In equilibrium, these pre-donations are Pareto-improving over the undistorted solution; moreover, when the agents’ preferences are sufficiently distinct, the equilibrium solution coincides with the concessionary division rule.     

Accuracy of self-reports on donations to charitable organizations

In this paper we assess overall accuracy in survey self-reports on giving to charitable organizations, direction of bias in self-reports, and the influence of this bias on relationships. We compare donations to one specific health charity reported in the Giving in the Netherlands Panel Study 2003 with donations recorded in the database (n =  191). We find that (a) reported donations are significantly higher than recorded donations; (b) reported amounts contributed are correlated very strongly with recorded contributions; (c) differences between amounts reported and amounts recorded are positively related to education, religious affiliation, and the tendency to social desirability, and negatively to household income. This suggests that effects of education are overestimated and effects of income and religious affiliation are underestimated using self-reports on donations rather than archival records.     

A theory of formal conceptual definitions: developing theory-building measurement instruments

This study develops the need for formal conceptual definitions (sometimes called nominal definitions) and how to develop better measurement instruments for theory-building. It develops the underlying theory for ‘good’ formal conceptual definitions by defining terms, demonstrating that formal conceptual definitions are needed for all theory-building empirical research, explains how and why ‘good’ formal conceptual definitions are used to develop properties and their measures, and last, it logically explains that good formal conceptual definitions are necessary conditions for construct validity (content validity, criterion validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity) while statistical tests are sufficient conditions for validity. This theory development explains why formal conceptual definitions are necessary before any traditional statistical empirical validity tests are performed. This study suggests that any statistical validity tests are not meaningful if the concept is not formally defined.In short, the theory of formal conceptual definitions provides a structure to develop ‘good’ measures of the formal theory that leads to ‘good’ empirical theory-building.     

The relative importance of journals used in operations management research A citation analysis

Journal rankings are important for a variety of reasons, most importantly as the basis of academic tenure and promotion decisions. A common approach in other fields is the citations methodology which is used in this study to determine the relative importance of various operations management (OM) journals. The citations analysis noted the frequency that all other journals are cited in Decision Sciences, Journal of Operations Management, and Management Science during the period 1992 to 1994. Rankings are provided based on total citations, citations per article, and citations per words published. The study shows that the journals with the most importance to OM research are Management Science, Decisions Sciences and Operations Research. Other journals important to OM research are the Harvard Business Review, Journal of Operations Management, and IIE Transactions.     

Review of Non-Independence,Asymmetry, Skew-Symmetry and Point-Symmetry Models in the Analysis of Social Mobility Data

A non-standard log-linear approach is employed to fit the class of non-independence,asymmetric, skew-symmetric and inclined point-symmetry models to intergenerationalmobility table. While these models are not new, our goal in this paper is to present theimplementation of the models that are discussed here using SAS PROC GENMOD. This approach is used to fit these class of models to the 6 × 6 Brazilian social mobility data which has received extensive consideration in the literature, as well as to the 9 × 9 mobility table of men in England and Wales. These are further extended to two 5 × 5 mobility tables of men in the US aged 20–64. Parsimonious models are sought for each table and expressions for estimated odds-ratios under the appropriate models are provided based on our approach.     

An approximation method to derive confidence intervals for quantiles with some applications

Standard jackknife confidence intervals for a quantile Q _y (β) are usually preferred to confidence intervals based on analytical variance estimators due to their operational simplicity. However, the standard jackknife confidence intervals can give undesirable coverage probabilities for small samples sizes and large or small values of β. In this paper confidence intervals for a population quantile based on several existing estimators of a quantile are derived. These intervals are based on an approximation for the cumulative distribution function of a studentized quantile estimator. Confidence intervals are empirically evaluated by using real data and some applications are illustrated. Results derived from simulation studies show that proposed confidence intervals are narrower than confidence intervals based on the standard jackknife technique, which assumes normal approximation. Proposed confidence intervals also achieve coverage probabilities above to their nominal level. This study indicates that the proposed method can be an alternative to the asymptotic confidence intervals, which can be unknown in practice, and the standard jackknife confidence intervals, which can have poor coverage probabilities and give wider intervals.     

Eastern European Public Opinion on Economic Issues:

Abstract Survey data on Eastern Europe is investigated with respect to two major questions: How do people view the creation of a market economy and how do they assess the speed of economic transformation and privatization. These questions are analyzed by looking at the development over 1990 to 1992 and by performing regressions with a number of demographic variables as regressors. Some findings are that the opposition to the creation of a market economy is increasing over time, that in Hungary and Poland people are quite satisfied with the speed of transformation as compared to Czechs and Slovaks, that the Polish are divided over the speed of privatization, and that the relationship between the speed of transformation and privatization is not considered to be very tight by the respondents.     

Sociological Models Based on Fréchet Random Variables

Products of random variables are of both practical and theoretical significance to social scientists. This has increased the need to have available the widest possible range of statistical results on products of random variables. In this note, the distribution of the product XY is derived when X and Y are independent Fréchet random variables. Extensive tabulations of the associated percentage points are also given.     

Through Thick and Thin? How Self‐determination Drives the Corporate Sustainability Initiatives of Multinational Subsidiaries

Multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries implement corporate sustainability initiatives (CSIs) if they are self‐determined to do so (based on intrinsic motivation) or when urged on by circumstances and pressures (based on extrinsic motivation). Such differences in self‐determination are derived from underlying corporate psychological needs for competence, autonomy and relatedness, and are manifested in the governance choices of making, allying or buying CSIs. In this study of oil and gas MNC subsidiaries in the developing country context of Trinidad and Tobago, four distinct types of firm are identified based on their levels of self‐determination and corporate governance tendencies. These groups are identified as trail blazers, marching soldiers, sharp shooters and fire fighters, and their distinctive characteristics are described. These findings are useful to corporate sustainability strategists seeking to select, design and implement CSIs that satisfy MNC headquarter directives but balance subsidiary objectives of maintaining good relations and access to operate in developing countries. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

“We do not hire smokers”: May employers discriminate against smokers?

Smoking employees are less healthy than nonsmokers, are absent more, make more and more expensive claims for health and disability benefits, and endanger co-workers who breathe smoky air. Employers may establish smoke-free workplaces, but—beyond that—employers may absolutely discriminate against smokers. Absent some common-law or statutory prohibition, employers are free to hire whomever they wish. The Americans with Disability Act prohibits discrimination against “disabled” applicants or employees, but smokers are not “disabled,” nor “regarded as” being disabled. Moreover, statutory construction does not lead to the conclusion that smokers are “disabled.” Since the policy of government is to discourage smoking, and discrimination against smokers promotes nonsmoking, such discrimination is not only not illegal, it is good social policy.     

Generalized variance-ratio tests for serial correlation in multivariate regression models

Exact tests for rth order serial correlation in the multivariate linear regression model are devised which are based on a multivariate generalization of the F-distribution. The tests require the computation of two multivariate regressions. In the special case of a single-equation regression model the procedures reduce to simple always-conclusive F-tests. The tests are illustrated by applications to the Rotterdam Model of consumer demand.     

Bayes estimates of distance‐to‐market: transactions costs,cooperatives and milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non‐participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for positive marketable surplus—‘distances‐to market’—are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left‐censored at some unobserved threshold; production efficiencies are heterogeneous; and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise is important because they are fundamental to the data‐generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second, because selling involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third, the potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market‐precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can the Public's Desire for Future Benefits Be Deduced form Their Private Decisions?

Abstract . How should benefits and costs occurring at different times be evaluated to decide whether to undertake tax financed public projects? What interest rate should be used? If public decisions were based on people's willingness to pay for future private income, they still could not be based on market interest rates. The benefits of public projects (except in the cases of private land values or affected fixed private capital investments) are not marketable. However, among other things, market interest rates do represent the opportunity costs of public investments. Still, many citizens are concerned about the welfare of future generations; they may have a lower time preference rate. Human capital investments are directly analogous to public investment to produce non marketable public goods. Both are illiquid; both yield returns higher than market rates. This indicates the private rates of time preference for most citizens are high.     

Developing breakthrough products: challenges and options for market assessment

Competitive pressures and market forces are augmenting the importance of product innovation as a source of competitive advantage. Key drivers underpinning market success have the capacity to develop the “right” products for the “right” customers, using the “right” channels, with a shorter development cycle than competitors. But when breakthrough products (BTPs) are involved, how do we sort out what is “right”? How do we identify customers' future requirements when the technology platforms are still unfolding, products are still in development and customers lack experience with the product? Traditional product development market research techniques are problematic since they assume the customer has historical experience with products similar to those being created. The objective of this paper is to raise the awareness of the OM community with the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies for developing and introducing innovative products to market. Further, it suggests promising future directions for both practice and research when BTPs are involved. This is important because of the central role OM plays in managing the success of the BTP development process.     

Economic designs of two-sided single and double screening procedures

Economic designs of single and double screening procedures for improving outgoing product quality based on two screening variables are presented for the case of two-sided specification limits. Two screening variables are observed simultaneously in the single screening procedure. In the double screening procedure, one variable is used first to make one of three decisions — accept, reject, or undecided — and after the first screening, the second variable is employed to screen the undecided items. It is assumed that the performance and the two screening variables are jointly normally distributed, and the deviation of the performance variable from the ‘ideal’ value causes dissatisfication to the consumers. Two quality cost functions — constant and quadratic — are considered. Cost models are constructed which involve screening inspection cost, and costs of accepted and rejected item. Methods of finding the optimal cutoff values are presented and a numerical example is given.     

Irrational Expectations, Unclearing Markets and a Business Cycle That Won't Go Away: The Recent School of New Classical Economists Comes a Cropper on Basic Economic Facts

Abstract . The assumptions and conclusions of New Classical Macroeconomics (NCM) are critically examined. NCM grew out of the alleged failure of the Keynesian school to deal with the problems of stagflation of the 1970s. The two fundamental ideas of the NCM are the rational expectations hypothesis and the theory of instantaneous market clearing. According to the NCM, fiscal and monetary policies will achieve desired results if they are unanticipated. Business cycles are thought to be results of imperfect information on the part of rational agents (people). The NCM has been severely criticized by such prominent economists as Arrow, Tobin and Thurow.     

The Unbounded Gatherer: Possibilities for posthuman writing-reading

This article develops a posthuman approach to authorship to challenge implied distinctions and superiorities between the social and material worlds, which can detach academics and their writing from societies and ecosystems. By reimagining academic texts that are open for richer interpretation and accessible to diverse audiences, this article offers two main contributions. Firstly, I develop a conceptualisation of the posthuman author as an 'unbounded gatherer', adding to others' attempts to destabilise predominant humanistic ways of writing about managing and organizing that view authors as autonomous agents. Secondly, by developing the idea of 'mediators' as a means to explore how the sociomaterial is implicated in writing, debates about materiality in writing are extended. Through an illustration of posthuman writing, five emergent categories of mediators are analysed, and three textual practices are performed and examined.     

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SIMPLE X2 AND NEYMAN SMOOTH GOODNESS OF FIT TESTS

Suppose we wish to test whether data are consistent with a completely specified continuous distribution against a general alternative. Familiar omnibus tests are PEARSON'S X² test and NEYMAN'S smooth test. Fundamental problems in the application of these tests are the construction and number of classes to use for X², and the choice of the order of the NEYMAN smooth test. This paper examines these questions.