Trade diversion in a currency union

This paper examines the consequences of trade diversion within the framework of a three-country,n-goods, two-period model. Two of the countries form a currency union while their currency floats with regard to the one of the third country. Trade diversion here is a shift in import demand from the goods produced in the third country to those produced by the union partner. It will be shown that because of the direct demand effect and the real balance effect, trade diversion will clearly increase intertemporal welfare in both union countries.     

The internal impact of a customs union; Baden and the Zollverein

Tariffs can affect the growth of states. But how do they affect regional growth within states? Using Baden's 1836 entry into the Zollverein, the customs union of German states, I investigate the internal impact of a change in tariffs. With a new data set of regional employment data I demonstrate that the Zollverein had a substantial positive effect. Two market access effects are shown, one follows the standard market access predictions and the second triggers the direct investment by Swiss entrepreneurs in German regions close to their home base. Furthermore occupational change within the crafts sector was shifting labour towards higher taxed occupations and towards the region close to Switzerland.     

Trade integration in the twentieth century: What does Belgian history tell us?

Trade Integration in the Twentieth Century: What Does Belgian History Tell Us? — This paper studies globalization, protection and the impact of regional trading blocs in the twentieth century. The authors take the perspective of a small open core country in Europe. Using a gravity approach, it can be shown that trade integration in Europe followed a U-shaped pattern during the last hundred years. Moreover, the similarity between the gold standard and the current period is striking. Finally, evidence is found of a strong EC effect, in particular among EC6 countries.     

'LAYIN' LOW AND SAYIN' NUFFIN': AUSTRALIA'S POLICY TOWARDS BRITAIN'S SECOND BID TO JOIN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (1966–67)

This article examines the problems and challenges which confronted the Australian government in its response to Britain's second attempt to join the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1967. While an adequate body of literature exists on Australia's policy towards Britain's first application to the EEC (1961–63), the Australian government's response to the 1967 bid has been completely ignored by historians. This article, therefore, aims to make a historical contribution to the understanding of Australia's policy towards Britain's 'turn to Europe'.     

西藏与印度设立边境自由贸易区效应分析

我国西藏自治区与印度相邻.目前,我国正在积极做亚东口岸全方位开放的准备工作,有关专家也在分析论证中印扩大经贸合作的潜在互补性.根据优化资源配置与提高双方居民福利的原则,西藏与印度不仅具备设应边境自由贸易区的区位与经济条件,国际政治与经济的环境趋势,也使双方同时具备了设立自由贸易区的可能.     

Econometric Analysis of the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement*

This paper investigates whether the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA) has had trade creation or trade diversion effects on the rest of the world. Using data on tariffs at the six‐digit level of the Harmonized System classification for the period 1996 to 2006, the methodology of the present paper follows a study on the North American Free Trade Agreement by Romalis (2005 ) We use the commodity and time variation in the tariff preferences allowed under ISLFTA to identify its effect on sourcing of different products from the ‘control country’ to the ISLFTA region. Using a fixed effects model, we find that the ISLFTA has had small trade creation effects in the control countries.     

LABOUR AND LAND IN GHANA, 1874–1939: A SHIFTING RATIO AND AN INSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTION

The Second Industrial Revolution created markets for new products for Ghana, rubber and then cocoa beans. Mechanised transport spurred the spread of cocoa planting. The paper estimates the resultant shift in factor ratios, and synthesises the data for prices of land-use rights and wages as the economy moved from land abundance to localised land scarcity. The consequences for factor markets were institutional rather than simply quantitative. For the first time markets in land use rights became widespread, while hired labour and farm pledging replaced slavery and debt bondage, as cocoa income made it possible for farmers to offer labourers sufficient inducement to enter the labour market.     

Breaking up a customs union: The case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919

Breaking Up a Customs Union: The Case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919. — This study has used new estimates of the gravity model to analyze the effects on European trade patterns in the mid-1920s of the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and its customs union after World War I. The gravity equation has been found to explain 70 percent of the variance of the trade flows of the principal trading nations in 1924–26. Moreover, the ties between the former members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire remained stronger than any other commercial relationship in Europe. They were second only in intensity — given economic and demographic factors — to those of the British Empire.     

RECOVERY FROM DEPRESSION: AUSTRALIA IN AN ARGENTINE MIRROR 1895–1913

The recovery from the 1890s depression in Australia was prolonged, and economic growth from 1895 to 1913 was below that in the comparable settler economies of Argentina and Canada. Why? Australia’s hesitant initial recovery is typically attributed to the imbalances in the economy resulting from the preceding boom, and its further delay to severe drought. Drawing on Argentine experience, it is suggested that additional factors need to be considered. Unlike Argentina, the unwillingness or inability of Australian governments to reschedule foreign debt or devalue the exchange rate exacerbated the slump. And the era of low‐cost pioneer farming ended earlier than in Argentina (or Canada).     

THE SWEDISH WAGE–RENTAL RATIO AND ITS DETERMINANTS, 1877–1926

Trends in wage–rental ratios figure prominently in the recent literature on factor price convergence and globalisation in the late nineteenth century. Sweden has been described as a free-trade country whose wage–rental ratio exhibited a distinctive upward trend before World War I. This article presents a new land price series that indicates an increase in land rentals and an evolution of the wage–rental ratio more in line with other European protectionist countries. We explore the determinants of the Swedish wage–rental ratio and assess the relative importance of protectionism and changes in Swedish farming's product mix from crop to animal products.     

China's WTO Commitments in Agriculture and Impacts of Potential OECD Agricultural Trade Liberalizations*

After accession to the WTO, China's agriculture is affected by the implementation of its WTO commitments and will be impacted by any multilateral liberalization (actions by the rich OECD economies in particular) resulting from the Doha negotiations. Using the actual commitment data, our computable general equilibrium simulation results show that China's WTO commitments will lead to increased agricultural imports and slightly declined outputs in China. The resulting efficiency gains will be negated by terms‐of‐trade losses, leading to quantitatively small welfare impacts. Furthermore, sectoral results depend critically on correctly representing the more complex policy measures, such as the tariff rate quotas. The negative output effects on Chinese agriculture can be alleviated/reversed if the rich OECD countries commit to reform their agriculture policies. The present paper concludes that trade liberalization should be carried out in both developing and developed countries. Reforming the latter will be particularly helpful in easing the problems facing those developing countries that are carrying out ambitious trade reforms.     

RAINFALL, THE MÉLINE TARIFF, AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MEDITERRANEAN FRANCE, 1885–1914

Wheat production stagnated in France during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, while cultivated acreage and wheat output declined sharply around the Mediterranean from the 1870s. Wheat output never recovered in this region despite the introduction in 1885 of tariff measures, such as the 1892 Méline Tariff. This paper analyses the response of Mediterranean wheat growers to changes in local rainfall and to variations of the duty on imported grains. It uses regional level data for nine administrative divisions located on or near the Mediterranean and assesses the impact of rainfall on yields. It argues that an interplay of protectionist policies and environmental conditions explain the decline of wheat production.     

BORDER BARRIERS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE IMPACT OF THEIR ELIMINATION: EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA

We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.