Exchange rate pass-through in Canadian manufacturing: its direct and indirect components

Changes in the exchange rate have direct and indirect effects on the prices of domestically produced goods and imports in the domestic market. The direct effects originate with the impact of the exchange rate on the marginal cost of imports; the indirect effects, with its impact on the price of materials used by domestic producers and hence on their marginal costs. Direct and indirect exchange rate pass-through elasticities are estimated for 37 Canadian manufacturing industries and their determinants are examined in a cross-section analysis. It is found that the direct and indirect elasticities are approximately equal in size for domestic goods, while the direct effect is dominant for imports. For a small number of industries, the net result of the direct and indirect effects is that a depreciation of the domestic currency increases the competitiveness of imports, contrary to conventional analysis. Important determinants of the direct (indirect) elasticities are the import share and non-tariff barriers (the responsiveness of domestic costs to changes in the exchange rate, and concentration).     

CHALLENGES FOR FRANCE IN THE EMERGING INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

France faces substantial challenges as the economic integration of Europe and the international economy continues. This article uses a dynamic aggregate translog cost function with inputs of capital, labor, and imports to examine the likely impact of closer world economic ties on France. This technique allows one to estimate short- as well as long-run direct price elasticities of demand for the inputs and cross-price elasticities for each respective input pair. The findings of the article include that (1) the French economy is becoming more sensitive to changes in import prices and (2) all the inputs are substitutes for one another. These results suggest that continuing international economic integration will present substantial challenges to the French economy. The short-run estimates of direct and cross-price elasticities are consistent with the Le Châtelier principle, except for the cross-price elasticities between capital and labor. Some possible reasons for the latter result are discussed in the article. (JEL F14, O10, O12)     

The Spanish automotive industry: scale economies and input relationships

This paper investigates the existence of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry as well as the substitution possibilities between input pairs and the direct and cross price elasticities of demand for the various inputs by estimating a translog cost function for both a three input model involving capital, labour, and intermediate goods as well as a four input model where energy is separated from other intermediate goods. The results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis of economies of scale in the Spanish automobile industry, particularly at the low and mean levels of output. These results also are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for the other inputs, but that labour and intermediate goods are complements. Labour and energy also appear to have a complementary relationship over most of the data points in this study. The significance of a complementary relationship between labour and intermediate goods is that any attempt by the Spanish government to restrict imports of these inputs, resulting in higher domestic prices for them, may aggravate an already serious domestic unemployment problem.     

Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel

The supply side effects of both the nominal interest rate (i.e., the cost channel) and import prices on inflation are very important for the design of monetary policy. However, the empirical identification of the cost channel (traditionally associated with the advance payment of wages) has ignored import prices. We start by deducting a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) which shows that ignoring import prices in the estimation of the cost channel may lead to incorrect results. Taking this into account, we study the empirical relevance of the cost channel and import prices using the NKPC for the G7 countries. We test whether the estimation of the cost channel is affected when the price of imported inputs is considered; if it is relevant to extend the cost channel given that imports of final consumption goods are also paid in advance; if imports should be treated as inputs and/or consumption goods, and if there is an immediate or slow exchange rate pass-through. Empirical results indicate that the cost channel is present in imported consumption goods in particular, and import prices play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

The impacts of imports and trade liberalization in Brazil: Insights from an aggregate cost function

Brazil has faced and continues to struggle with difficult economic challenges, including achieving noninflationary economic growth and a manageable external deficit. This paper presents the results of the estimation of an aggregate translog cost function with inputs of domestic capital and labor and imports and outputs of consumption and investment goods. The resulting calculated elasticities give insights into the relationships among the inputs, as well as the possible impacts of further reducing international trade barriers. The findings suggest that all of the inputs are substitutes for one another and that an increase in imports may have at least short-run negative effects on the demand for domestic capital and labor. However, imports appear to be particularly important in the production of investment goods, so an increase in imports may result in a more than proportionate increase in the output of those products and enhance the long-term growth of the economy. The responses to current challenges facing Brazil will affect its future economic growth as well as have a broader impact on the international scene. The results described here may help to inform policy makers as they address these issues, particularly with respect to international trade policies.     

Estimating an Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka

Owing to the unavailability of time‐series data on the domestic market‐clearing price of imports, the estimation of notional price and income elasticities of aggregate import demand remains a daunting task for a large number of developing countries. This paper develops a structural econometric model of a two‐goods representative agent economy that incorporates a binding foreign exchange constraint at the administered prices of imports. A theoretically consistent parameterization of the “virtual relative price” of imports circumvents the data problem, and thus enables the estimation of income and price responses by cointegration approach. The price and income elasticity estimates for India and Sri Lanka, in contrast to the extant literature, have correct signs, high statistical significance, and plausible magnitudes.     

How Elastic is East Asian Demand for Consumption Goods?

This paper investigates import demand in East Asia. Estimating exchange rate elasticities for countries in the region is difficult because many imports are used to produce goods for re‐export. An exchange rate appreciation that reduces East Asian exports will also reduce the demand for imported inputs that are used to produce exports. To correct for this bias this paper examines consumption imports, since these goods are intended primarily for the domestic market. Results from several specifications indicate that currency appreciations and increases in income in East Asian countries would significantly increase imports into the region.     

Local Manufacturing Hurt by Depreciations in a Theoretical Model Reflecting the Australian Experience

The model is motivated by data showing that the Australian production of local manufactures is hurt by depreciations and invigorated by appreciations. The paper briefly presents such evidence and then proceeds to a theoretical analysis. The model aims to capture short‐to‐medium run exchange rate effects in an economy with goods and services aggregated into four commodities: (i) imports; (ii) local manufactures; (iii) services; and (iv) rural goods (agricultural, pastoral, forestry, fishing and mining products). With the exception of rural goods, each commodity comprises consumer goods as well as inputs into the other sectors. Rural goods enter consumption only indirectly after processing by the manufacturing sector. Exports are exclusively rural goods. The model has a Keynesian flavour in that the production of local manufactures and services is not constrained by the availability of resources and of labour. Variable inputs per unit of output are assumed to be constant. There are also fixed inputs. Variable inputs are imports in the case of the import sector; rural goods and imports in the case of the local manufacturing sector; and labour in the case of the services sector. The prices of imports, local manufactures and services are set by constant mark‐up factors on variable costs. This assumption is based on a picture of imperfect competition with constant elasticity of demand at the firm level. The extreme capital intensity of rural goods production is taken into account by modelling total production of rural goods as an exogenous parameter. The price of rural goods is determined in the export market. It falls with increasing exports. The economy is not assumed to be small in its export market. The domestic consumption demand schedule is modelled as predetermined in the sense that in the time span under consideration the relationship between quantities consumed and nominal prices is not affected by the exchange rate. The nominal wage rate is assumed to be predetermined in the same sense. No specific functional form is imposed on the consumption demand schedule: the analysis is based on general assumptions, mainly non‐inferiority and gross substitutability. In view of gross substitutability, there is a competitive relationship between imports and local manufactures. Adepreciation raises the price of imports and ceteris paribus such an increase raises the consumption of manufactures. However, the analysis shows that this enhancing influence of a depreciation on manufacturing is weaker than other causal channels that work in the opposite direction. An increase in the price of imports (and exportables) raises variable costs and thereby the price of local manufactures. This leads to a decrease in the output of local manufactures. In the course of the analysis, it is first shown that a uniquely determined equilibrium exists for every exchange rate above a lower bound. Then the effects of a change in the exchange rate are investigated. In most cases the results are unambiguous. In particular this is true for the output and the price of local manufactures. Other conclusions are that a depreciation increases exports and the amount of services provided. In some cases unequivocal results can be obtained only with the help of further assumptions. This concerns the domestic price of rural goods, the balance of trade in domestic prices and import penetration.     

The Italian Automotive Industry and Economies of Scale

This article investigates scale economies in the Italian automobile industry as well as substitution possibilities between inputs and direct and cross-price elasticities of factor demand, utilizing a cost function with capital, labor, domestic, and imported intermediate goods inputs. Continuing European integration makes economies of scale an important issue. The study results are consistent with economies of scale in the Italian motor vehicle industry, a particularly interesting finding because the Italian automotive industry consists primarily of one firm, Fiat. The estimated direct price elasticities suggest that capital is most responsive to own price changes, and estimated cross elasticities imply that all inputs are substitutes. (JEL D 2, L 6, O 1)     

Trends in Disaggregated Import and Export Prices in Europe: Implications for the Trade and Wages Debate

We consider carefully the evidence from traded prices (as proxied by unit values) concerning the transmission of the effects of globalisation to domestic labour markets. Using standard index number techniques we decompose changes in sectoral import and export unit values into movements due to changes in pure prices of the initial bundle of goods imported or exported and changes due to upgrading of that bundle. Looking at the imports of selected European countries of textiles, clothing and footwear relative to engineering products we find evidence of strongly falling pure prices of the unskilled intensive products relative to the skilled products in the 1980s. This reinforces the view that import prices can capture the impact of globalisation in terms of falling relative prices for products produced with the intensive use of unskilled labour. However, the trends are not common across all the unskilled sectors; footwear is clearly an exception. In the absence of detailed domestic data, we look for reactions by domestic firms to increased import competition in movements in the price and composition of exports. We find evidence of stiff price competition from imports being associated with similar movements in export prices and no support for the view that import competition from low–wage countries has led to upgrading of the quality of exports.     

A 'pricing-to-market' model with unobserved variables: explaining New Zealand's import prices

A model of ‘pricing-to-market’ (PTM) behaviour in import prices is developed for a small open economy to allow for two measurement problems: (i) that neither the marginal production cost of imported goods nor their corresponding (foreign-currency) export price are observable by the econometrician; (ii) that PTM behaviour, if it exists, alters the relationship between foreign countries' export price indices for total exports and the true, unobservable price index. The analysis shows that variations in the measured markup on import prices depends on the degree to which domestic demand is synchronized with world demand, whether bilateral exchange rate movements are due to domestic or foreign factors, and on the degree to which PTM behaviour differs from such behaviour in other countries. Equations estimated for the price of New Zealand (NZ) imports from the US strongly supports the model, and finds that the degree of PTM by US exporters in response to price and exchange rate movements is substantially greater in NZ than the average for other countries. However, the degree of PTM in NZ in response to excess demand is similar to that of other countries.     

Insourcing,Outsourcing, and Unemployment in the Spanish Auto Industry

This paper examines the role of outsourced intermediate goods, together with capital, labor, and insourced intermediate products, as inputs in Spain's motor vehicle production. Its findings are consistent with statistically significant economies of scale. Capital and labor are found to be substitutes, as are most of the other input pairs. However, capital and outsourced intermediate goods and labor and insourced intermediate goods appear to have complementary relationships, and the latter relationship has become stronger over the period of study. Any actions that decrease the price of one of the inputs in a complementary pair will increase the demand for the other input. Since labor and outsourced intermediate goods appear to be substitutes, a decrease in import prices as a result of further European integration will decrease the demand for domestic labor and exacerbate Spain's unemployment problem. A similar result holds for insourced and outsourced intermediate goods.     

The aggregate import equation: Price homogeneity and monetary effects

The theoretical and empirical assumptions implied by conventional import equations are identified and tested for the US and UK. The demand for imports is found to respond much more strongly to changes in domestic rather than foreign prices. The elasticity with respect to income estimated by traditional functions is shown to be upward biased. Finally, a direct link between the money supply and imports is established, with consequences for all import elasticities.     

Calculating the real return on a sovereign wealth fund

We present a new methodology for calculating the real return on sovereign wealth funds (SWF) that share the investment objective of maximizing international purchasing power in terms of goods and services. Specifically, we modify the traditional approach for deflating the nominal return along three dimensions: the aggregator formula, the measure of international prices and the weighting scheme. We argue that a geometric average of price levels is an appropriate aggregator formula for capturing the deflationary effects of imports increasingly originating from low‐cost countries, and that import prices paid by the SWF owner and weights reflecting the owner's import pattern are consistent with the investment objective. Our proposed approach, using the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global as an illustration, raises the estimated average annual real rate of return over the sample period of 1998–2012 from 3.1% to 4.9%.     

A cost-based analysis of scale economies in the French auto industry

This paper examines cost relationships in the French automobile industry using a translog cost function with domestic capital and labor and domestic and foreign intermediate goods inputs. The findings suggest scale economies at lower output levels, but diseconomies at mean and maximum output levels. Cross price elasticity estimates implied all input pairs except capital and foreign parts and labor and domestic parts are substitutes. Except for foreign components, direct price elasticity estimates were inelastic. Thus, further integration of Europe and reduction of foreign input prices may substantially increase their quantity demanded and decrease the demand for domestic labor and parts.     

An estimation of import demand,export supply and technical change for Korea

This paper estimates import demand and export supply functions for Korea based on the translog restricted profit (or GNP) function. It also estimates biases of technological change and applies decomposition analysis to examine the effects of technical change on input demand within the profit function framework. Our findings show that (a) factor inputs, as well as outputs, are, in general, moderately price-elastic and substitutable among each other. (b) the production of investment goods, as well as export goods, is capital-intensive while the production of consumption goods is labout-intensive, (c) technical change is labour-saving and is biased against imports, and (d) there has been a rapid decline of export supply price-elasticity which may be attributable to the rapid growth of export share of GDP (from 4% in 1964 to 38% in 1983). The larger the relative size of export sector and the faster the rate of its growth, the harder will it be to expand export production by drawing own resources from the domestic sector.     

The volatility of Australian traded goods’ prices

It is generally accepted that the Australian economy is continually subject to unanticipated shocks, particularly, unexpected swings in the prices of Australia's internationally- traded goods. This article empirically investigates the nature and extent of volatility in import and export prices faced by the Australian production sector. It estimates multivariate GARCH models of the stochastic processes generating the prices of imports and exports, and of important components of exports and imports. This article proposes an index of volatility, which is used to provide a summary measure of the extent of volatility in a multivariate context. The overall conclusion is that the price growth rates for Australia's traded goods exhibit considerable time variation in volatility and that these price growth rates are highly and positively correlated with each other.     

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.     

Scale properties and input substitution in mexican electrical equipment manufacturing

This paper investigates the existence of scale economies in the Mexican electrical equipment industry and estimates direct and cross price input demand elasticities using a translog cost function. Although the estimated value of the cost elasticity was consistent with economies of scale, it was significantly less than 1 only at a significance level slightly greater than 5 percent. The estimated cross price elasticities indicated that all of the inputs were substitutes. Nevertheless, while lower trade barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement, ceteris paribus, may have a short-term adverse effect on the demand for labor in this industry by increasing imports of cheaper capital and intermediate goods, the relatively low values for E_LK and E_LM also support the conclusion that the impact on employment may be relatively small.This project was supported by the Faculty Development Leave Program at the University of Texas at San Antonio.     

Cost relationships and challenges in the Spanish apparel industry

In the twenty-first century, the Spanish textile and apparel industries have faced substantial challenges, resulting in declining sales and employment. This study concentrates on the apparel industry, since its economic challenges and opportunities differ from those of the textile industry. The analysis employs a transcendental logarithmic cost function to investigate the presence of scale economies and the interrelationships among inputs of domestic capital, labour and intermediate goods as well as outsourced intermediate products for the Spanish apparel industry and discusses the implications for its future competitiveness and the demand for domestic inputs. The results are consistent with diseconomies of scale or, in the case of one model, possibly constant returns to scale, indicating that some contraction of the industry due to international competition will not raise unit costs. All of the inputs except for capital and intermediate goods were found to be substitutes. An important finding is that the cross elasticity values of both labour and domestic intermediate goods with respect to the price of outsourced goods have risen over time, indicating an increased sensitivity of the quantity demanded of these home-country inputs to the price of imported intermediate goods. It follows that domestic input markets will be more substantially affected by international prices for outsourced inputs as the industry tries to maintain its competitiveness in the global environment.