Economic Analysis in Plain English: A Course in Economic Journalism

The authors describe an experimental economics course designed as a journalism workshop. Students were reporters, writing articles on economic events and issues and about prominent economists and their ideas. The articles were read and discussed by the entire class. The requirement to explain economics to lay readers clearly but accurately developed the students' own economic literacy.     

我国通胀对股票市场条件波动影响研究

将通胀引入标准GARCH模型,分别研究我国通胀率、通胀率变化和移动平均通胀率对股市条件波动的影响。实证结果表明通胀对我国股票市场条件波动几乎不存在影响,从而否定了通胀会使投资者预期经济变坏,更加厌恶风险,以致引起资产价格剧烈波动的假说。     

Individual determinants of work attendance: evidence on the role of personality

We investigate the influence of personality as measured by the Big Five personality scale on absenteeism using the 2005 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Estimates of a double hurdle negative binomial regression allow us to test hypotheses on the influence of the Big Five personality traits on work attendance. Our findings augment previous results on the link between personality and absenteeism by analysing representative data and including a large set of control variables typically not available in small scale surveys. We find clear negative correlations between the absence probability and Conscientiousness among women. For male employees a negative correlation with the incidence of absence is observed for the Agreeableness dimension. When looking at the length of absence occurrences Neuroticism is found to significantly influence male absenteeism despite controlling for the subjective health of the individual. Following the reasoning by Bowles et al. (2001) for the provision of effort by employees, employers might pay for incentive-enhancing preferences such as low Neuroticism among male employees because employers can only insufficiently monitor the true level of sickness of their employees and consequently want to avoid voluntary absenteeism.     

The Impact of Cost Changes on Industry Entry and Exit

Increases in costs may have interesting, non-obvious effects on industry entry and exit. Three cases are possible when costs rise: the competitor neutral case, in which entry decreases and exit increases, entrant favoring, in which entry and exit both increase, and incumbent favoring, in which entry and exit both decrease. The model places restrictions on which outcomes are possible given which costs rise (marginal or fixed). The model can be used to examine the impacts of cost-increasing regulation or exogenous process innovation on industry entry and exit.      

The Effect of Information Technology on Economic Education

The author evaluated the effect on student performance of using a new information technology (IT) enhancement that permits students to participate in the recording of lectures that can be downloaded later from the Internet. The author compared two sections of the same Intermediate Microeconomics class and observed the sample students to be representative; the empirical model accounted for any differences in student characteristics between the comparison and test groups. Model results show that students exposed to the IT enhancement performed about 2 percentage points better on their final exam than did the comparison students; however, the difference was not statistically different from zero. The author concluded that the use of IT appears to not have any substantive influence on student performance.     

互补性与制度变迁理论研究

由于纯粹采用宏观指标测度制度互补性的外在表现弱化了它在制度变迁中的作用,甚至遭到某些学者的否认。在坚持制度互补性的技术原因并全面界定互补性概念并区分其与粘性、聚类等其他几种制度联系形式的基础上,全面拓展了互补性类型、强度的测度的微观方法;另外,整合均衡观与历史—政治观以构建制度变迁的方法论基石也是正确理解互补性在制度变迁中的作用的前提。简单否认互补性的普遍性是忽略了制度产生和演化的物质基础的直接体现。     

改革开放三十年市场化成果对国民消费的影响研究

梳理并回顾改革开放三十年以来经济重大成就以及一步步走向市场化的历史进程,深入分析经济改革中的各项指标对中国经济的影响。根据三十年消费与收入数据,采用回归分析,将三十年分三阶段建立模型。研究结果显示,三十年以来随着中国经济迅速发展,边际消费呈现递减趋势,体现出中国经济的发展成果。各项改革措施分别会对中国经济产生怎样的影响,该如何进行量化,值得深入思考。     

投入产出模型在规划环评中的应用探讨

本文首先介绍了适用于规划环评的两种投入产出模型,然后探讨了其在规划环境影响评价中的应用,并重点分析了其应用的技术路线,同时指出在应用时需要加以注意的几个问题.     

论经济全球化对世界大国关系的影响——以中国、日本、美国为例

文章以经济全球化为主线,分析经济全球化对大国关系的影响,以中美、日美之间的贸易摩擦为例展开论证。从中可以看出,经济全球化加强了各国之间的联系,贸易往来频繁,但由于各国利益在一定程度上的冲突,经济交往过程中的经济摩擦是不可避免的,中美和日美之间的贸易摩擦就是很好的例证。但加强各国之间的合作,缓解摩擦,获取共同的利益,实现互利双赢,符合各国的利益,我们应使经济全球化给全球人民带来的福利最大化。     

中印商品贸易的竞争性与互补性分析

中国和印度同为世界上发展中大国,由于两国地理位置相邻,国情相似,使得两国在贸易中有很大的相似性。运用贸易结合度指数、显示性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数三个测度指标,探析中国和印度商品贸易的竞争性和互补性的态势,对中国制定正确的贸易政策和促连双方经贸合作具有十分重要的意义。     

外包对于我国环境污染影响的实证研究:基于行业面板数据

发达国家和地区的外包行为,究竟是促进了发展中国家的技术进步,从而减少了经济活动对环境的污染呢,还是通过向发展中国家转移生产过程中的加工组装环节,从而扩大了对发展中国家的环境污染?本文在中国业已成为全球最大的代工平台的经济背景下,利用中国行业面板数据实证检验了发达国家和地区的外包对我国环境的影响.实证结果表明,外包行为显著降低了我国的环境污染强度.与此同时,本文还给出了我国规模效应、技术效应、结构效应、产权制度以及要素禀赋等的结果.本文的结论对于理解我国紧迫的产业升级等问题有启发意义.     

公众参与制度在环境影响评价中的影响

公众参与原则是我国环境法中一项重要的基本原则,它贯穿于环境法律的各项制度中,该原则有利于提高环境决策的民主性和科学性。我国先后出台了《中华人民共和国环境影响评价法》与《环境影响评价公众参与暂行办法》来保障环境影响评价中的公众参与制度。但由于我国环境法律的制定还不成熟,公众参与环境影响评价还存在着一些缺陷,因此有必要借鉴发达国家的有关规定来完善我国的公众参与环境影响评价制度。     

The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making: The Norwegian experience

Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.     

结构性冲击对中国经济的影响——兼论新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响

传染性疾病作为一种短暂而剧烈的结构性冲击对中国经济的影响以及政策选择因全球爆发的新冠肺炎疫情受到广泛关注.基于包含上下游生产结构、不同类型企业以及异质性金融摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型的研究发现,疫情冲击是对供给与需求同时产生影响的综合冲击,这一特征对评估其经济影响非常重要,并能解释疫情以来中国消费下滑幅度大于生产投资且恢复较慢的特征事实.结构性减税政策对经济的稳定效果显著优于宽松货币政策且福利损失更小,但两种政策组合使用可以带来更好的福利结果.这是因为货币扩张在稳定需求的同时恶化了信贷资源错配,结构性减税则部分纠正了信贷错配,而政策组合使用能充分发挥两种政策的优势.     

Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty

The formation and accuracy of unemployment expectations are investigated in this paper. Unemployment expectations were found to contain predictive information that was not captured by past trends in unemployment and other economic variables. The predictive content of expectations was based on private information about future unemployment and overall economic prospects. The data indicated a greater consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis than with adaptive, extrapolative, and error-learning models, although households did not optimally use all available information. The data indicate that unemployment expectations are to an important extent derived from more general expectations about the future performance of the economy.     

Executive compensation among Australian mining and non-mining firms: Risk taking,long and short-term incentives

How firms determine the pay of their executive employees is a vital research area. In the Australian context, mining firms form a large portion of listed companies. These miners tend to have more volatile earnings, operate with less certainty and higher risk in relation to capital investment. We look at a sample of ASX listed miners and non-miners from 2005 to 2013. We note that miners pay their CEOs less (AUD 1 m vs AUD 1.5 m for non-miners) overall. However, we also note that miners tend to use enhanced contingent long-term remuneration arrangements to significantly boost the pay-performance relationship compared to non-miners particularly during the pre-GFC period. Curiously, non-miners tend to have more generous short-term contingent arrangements linking executive pay and performance. The GFC, as an event, has adversely impacted these arrangements, lessening the generosity of pay-performance among miners, while enhancing these arrangements among non-miners. Overall, the results of the study provide support for optimal contracting theory and do not generally support the managerial power approach for both mining and non-mining firms.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

论金融信息化对金融业的影响

在信息技术成果的广泛应用不断推动国民经济信息化进程的背景下,金融领域的信息化进程深刻地改变着金融活动与管理的内容、范围和方式。本旨在探讨金融信息化对金融业已经可能产生的广泛而深刻的影响。     

国有企业改制对就业的影响——来自11个城市的证据

在20世纪90年代中后期,中国工业企业的就业规模大幅度下降,许多人认为,企业改制是其主要原因。本文通过对11个城市386家企业从1995年到2001年的面板数据的研究,评估了企业改制对就业的影响。我们的面板数据回归结果显示,和一般印象相反,改制显著地减缓了就业的下降趋势。我们还发现,改制对企业的就业增长有持续的和递增的积极作用。即使在控制了企业的绩效、就业条件、资产结构以及改制前就业历史之后,我们仍然得到相同的结论。另外,我们还使用了倾向分值匹配基础上的差分内差分方法对我们的结果进行了验证,也得到了相似的结论。