Simple tests of alternative specifications in stochastic frontier models

Previous work on stochastic production frontiers has generated a family of models, of varying degrees of complexity. Since this family is nested (in the sense that the more general models contain the less general), we can test the restrictions that distinguish the model. In this paper we provide tests of these restrictions, based on the results of estimating the simpler (restricted) models. Some of our tests are LM tests. However, in other cases the LM test fails, so we provide alternative simple tests.     

西方国家政府绩效审计发展述评

本文回顾了西方国家政府绩效审计的发展历程,并对以澳大利亚、英国为代表的西方国家的政府绩效审计的特点进行了分析,最后得出了几点启示.     

Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems: Analytic results and experimental evidence

This paper discusses eight alternative tests of the absence of casual ordering, all of which are asymptotically valid under the null hypothesis in the sense that their limiting size is known. Their behavior under alternatives is compared analytically using the concept of approximate slope, and these results are supported by the outcomes of Monte Carlo experiments. The implications of these comparisons for applied work are unambiguous: Wald variants of a test attributed to Granger, and a lagged dependent variable version of Sim's test introduced in this paper, are equivalent in all relevant respects and are preferred to the other tests discussed.     

Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures

Airline traffic forecasting is important to airlines and regulatory authorities. This paper examines a number of approaches to forecasting short- to medium-term air traffic flows. It contributes as a rare replication, testing a variety of alternative modelling approaches. The econometric models employed include autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, time-varying parameter (TVP) models and an automatic method for econometric model specification. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model and various univariate alternatives are also included to deliver unconditional forecast comparisons. Various approaches for taking into account interactions between contemporaneous air traffic flows are examined, including pooled ADL models and the enhanced models with the addition of a “world trade” variable. Based on the analysis of a number of forecasting error measures, it is concluded that pooled ADL models that include the “world trade” variable outperform the alternatives, and in particular univariate methods; and, second, that automatic modelling procedures are enhanced through judgmental intervention. In contrast to earlier results, the TVP models do not improve accuracy. Depending on the preferred error measure, the difference in accuracy may be substantial.     

The permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries: a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition test

This paper presents a new test of the permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries. The test first decomposes consumption and income into their long run trend (permanent) and short run cyclical (transitory) components, using the recently developed multivariate stochastic detrending approach developed by Vahid and Engle (1997), among others. This approach exploits the presence of possible common stochastic trends and cycles among the variables in the system to arrive at a more efficient decomposition of these variables. Using the decomposition results, and in contrast to many articles in the literature, the paper finds support for the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper finds that, while permanent consumption is related to permanent income, transitory consumption is related to neither permanent nor transitory income.

世界主要发达国家物联网的发展现状

物联网技术是目前各国重点发展的网络技术。各国相继制定了物联网发展的规划战略,加快推进下一代网络基础设施的建设步伐。文章主要介绍了美国、欧盟、日本、韩国和新加坡5个国家和地区的物联网发展现状,以期为我国的物联网发展提供借鉴。     

The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models

We compare a number of methods that have been proposed in the literature for obtaining h-step ahead minimum mean square error forecasts for self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. These forecasts are compared to those from an AR model. The comparison of forecasting methods is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte-Carlo method of calculating SETAR forecasts is generally at least as good as that of the other methods we consider. An exception is when the disturbances in the SETAR model come from a highly asymmetric distribution, when a Bootstrap method is to be preferred.An empirical application calculates multi-period forecasts from a SETAR model of US gross national product using a number of the forecasting methods. We find that whether there are improvements in forecast performance relative to a linear AR model depends on the historical epoch we select, and whether forecasts are evaluated conditional on the regime the process was in at the time the forecast was made.     

Bootstrapping the process of model selection: AN econometric example

If a researcher has mined the data (i.e. selected an empirical model based on a series of trial estimates), inferences based on the final set of results are in general incorrect. This note treats the entire data mining process as an estimator and shows how a bootstrapping technique may improve the quality of inference. The method is applied to an empirical example on the deterrent effects of capital punishment.     

The impact of ambidexterity on enterprise performance: Evidence from 15 countries and 14 sectors

The assumption made by research on ambidexterity is that enterprises operating ambidextrously perform better as a result. Similarly, the beneficial effects of ambidexterity are often assumed to be invariant across different contexts, such as sector. However, as is widely acknowledged in the literature, there is a paucity of evidence on which to base these assumptions. To address this issue, in this note we examine evidence from the Community Innovation Survey covering 15 countries and 45,113 enterprises. The paper shows a strong, positive effect on growth in sales turnover from ambidexterity in the manufacturing and the scientific and technical services sectors.     

The effects of corruption on growth performance of the mena countries

This article aims at testing the effects of institutional characteristics on growth in countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. For this purpose we consider conditional convergence in terms of initial conditions, macroeconomic performance, trade openness, government size, natural resource abundance and institutional and political structures for a sample of 90 countries over the period 1960–2000. We use regional indicators and MENA-specific variables in order to test for the effects of each variable on the growth performance of the MENA economies. We highlight the direct and indirect impacts of both corruption and bureaucratic quality on the MENA growth compared to the other regions of the world.     

A framework to measure the relative socio-economic performance of developing countries

This research develops a framework to estimate the relative efficiency of developing countries in utilizing both their domestic and external resources to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The analysis highlights distinct efficiency differences across lending groups and geographic regions e.g. between Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. The performance of regions exposed to natural disasters and political violence need to be analyzed individually and risk management ought to be an integrated part of development policy. The gap between the Millennium Development Goals and human rights approaches is then examined. Finally, we qualify a country's performance level as potentially sustainable in terms of human, social and environmental welfare, in turn searching for realistic benchmarks and intermediate targets for the relatively inefficient countries. Principal component analysis in combination with data envelopment analysis was applied to solve the problem of efficiency overestimation with multi-dimensional scaling used to present the issue graphically. In summary, the aim of this work is not to rank countries in a league table rather to provide a framework that combines economic, environmental and social issues in order to search for sustainable, pragmatic benchmarks, pushing the boundaries of the Human Development Index.     

Estimation of bank performance from multiple perspectives: an alternative solution to the deposit dilemma

Journal of Productivity Analysis - In this paper, we propose a flexible two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to evaluate the bank performance. Specifically, instead of fixing the role...     

Evaluating the comparative performance of countries of the Middle East and North Africa: A DEA application

Over the past few decades, countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have achieved varying levels of economic development. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is employed to study the comparative performance of selected MENA countries. For 1999, our DEA identified four of the 18 countries studied as the most efficient: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. All are from the Middle East, with three being members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Yemen was rated as the least efficient of all countries considered in the analysis. A regression analysis showed that the efficiency scores have a significant relationship with the richness of the countries (in terms of GNP per capita) but do not have a significant relationship with the size of the countries (in terms of population). Further, a time-series analysis using the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) indicated that the MENA countries achieved higher values of desirable attributes, and lower values of undesirable attributes, in 1999 compared to 1998. During 1998-1999, technology change contributed more to the improvement of MPI than did technical efficiency change.     

Offshoring and job loss fears: An econometric analysis of individual perceptions

We quantify the impact of offshoring and other globalisation measures on individual perceptions of job security. For the analysis we combine industry-level offshoring measures with micro-level data from a large German household panel survey and estimate ordinal fixed effects models. Our results indicate that offshoring to low-wage countries significantly raises job loss fears whilst offshoring to high-wage countries somewhat lowers them. Over our sample period from 1995 to 2006, offshoring to low and high-wage countries together can account for about 13% of the total increase in job loss fears. High-skilled workers are more sensitive to offshoring although their objective job loss risk is lower relative to low-skilled workers, which we argue reflects the fact that they have more to lose from unemployment.