美国产业结构的调整与贸易逆差

美国贸易逆差问题一直是学者们关注的焦点。众多学者对美国贸易逆差产生的原因提出了不同的解释。本文认为美国贸易逆差的持续扩大是其实体经济结构不断调整的外部反映,美国服务业占国民经济比重的不断提高是其贸易逆差持续扩大的深层次根源。服务业所占比重的提高一方面增加了美国对制造业产品的进口;另一方面也大大削弱了其产品出口能力。与服务业所占比重提高相伴随的是制造业向海外的转移,而这种产业转移也在一定程度上导致了美国贸易逆差。本文进一步利用实证分析方法检验了以上观点。     

美国储蓄不足和全球储蓄过剩是美国贸易逆差产生的根本原因

美国贸易逆差以及主要由贸易逆差造成的经常帐户赤字已成为世界经济关注的热点问题。对美国贸易逆差产生原因的解释众多,本文以主流经济学分析框架得出美国储蓄不足是美国贸易逆差的根本原因的结论。美国国内储蓄不足导致外国资本的流入。外国资本一方面为美国提供了购买力,补充了美国的储蓄,另一方面,美国可用外国提供的购买力进口产品,满足自己的需求。美国的贸易逆差是其储蓄不足的结果。从全球视角出发,其他国家的储蓄增加,为美国补充了储蓄,为美国贸易逆差的产生提供了外部条件。认识美国贸易逆差产生的原因,可以更有利地支撑美国贸易逆差与中国对其贸易顺差没有根本联系的观点,及人民币汇率问题不是美国贸易逆差根本原因的观点。     

Splitting the firm between the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist with the help of stock options

The Net Present Value (NPV) Rule provides the basic principle underlying the sharing of ownership in a new venture. The principle often fails because the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist cannot agree on the potential profitability value of the venture.First, the venture capitalist may simply have a less optimistic interpretation of the data related to the venture's profit potential. We refer to this discrepancy between the expectation of the entrepreneur and that of the venture capitalist as the expectation gap.Second, the venture capitalist knows that for the venture's potential to be realized, the entrepreneur/manager must devote his full effort to the success of the organization. This is not a problem if the entrepreneur owns the entire project. Once the ownership is shared, however, especially when the venture capitalists own the majority of the shares, the entrepreneur has a financial incentive to apply less than the diligence required to control costs and protect the interests of the outside equity holders. This financial incentive arises because any perk, including leisure or shirking, consumed by the entrepreneur does not have to be shared with the venture capitalist, while every dollar saved does. This is not solved by the venture capitalist acquiring a larger percentage of the company. That will only exacerbate the problem as it decreases the cost to the entrepreneur of each dollar of the company's funds spent for the perk. We refer to this as the motivation problem.In the article, we show how stock options can be used to deal effectively with both problems. First, stock options are always worth more to the optimist than to the pessimist. Thus, there will be a reverse valuation gap with respect to the stock options. We show that by issuing stock options to the entrepreneur, it is possible to close the expectation gap.To solve the motivation problem, the entrepreneur's stake must be increased to the extent where the cost to him of excessive consumption of perks will be as high as the benefit he derives. This can be accomplished by taking advantage of two valuation characteristics of stock options. First, stock options are worth only a fraction of the value of the underlying equity shares. Thus, it is easier for the venture capitalist to give up these, rather than the underlying equity shares. Second, the stock options will fluctuate with the venturing firm's value at a higher rate than the entrepreneur's percentage ownership. Thus, by issuing the entrepreneur a combination of equity shares and stock options, it is possible to increase significantly the entrepreneur's cost of “shirking” or “excessive consumption of perks.” Under idealized conditions, it is possible to design a financing arrangement that eliminates the motivation problem.The principles discussed here provide benchmarks that both the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist may wish to bring to the negotiating table. In the end, there is no substitute for the building of trust between the two to give the venture the maximum chance of success.     

中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性及政策启示

金融危机之后,中美贸易顺差成为美国贸易保护主义的主要借口,人民币升值的压力日益增加。此背景下,准确测度中美贸易收支的人民币汇率弹性,关系"后危机时代"中国对外贸易政策以及汇率政策的选择。实证分析表明,中国对美国出口的人民币汇率富有弹性,而对美国进口与人民币汇率不相关。因此,对中国政府来说,应该顶住外部压力,尽可能保持人民币汇率的稳定,促进贸易、就业和经济增长;对美国来说,人民币汇率不是其贸易逆差的根源,人民币升值的结果只能产生贸易转移效应,并不能缓解其逆差状况,过度和偏激地施压人民币升值实非明智之举。     

How Ethical are U.S. Business Executives? A Study of Perceptions

Not much has been written about how the ethics of U.S. business executives are perceived by the American public, yet the perception of integrity is important to both businesses and their investors. This study examines the U.S. public’s perceptions of the ethics of American business executives using Gallup Poll data for the past thirty years. Organizations with unethical executives have trouble attracting investors, customers, and new managerial talent. They suffer lawsuits, market share deterioration, and often prison time for the once-revered leaders. This study also looked at the U.S.’s relative standing on the Corruption Perceptions Index and the Edelman Trust Barometer. Confidence in the ethics of the U.S. business executive remains fairly low on the Gallup Poll surveys and the U.S. has declined on the CPI and Edelman Trust Barometer.     

The Influence of Green Innovation Performance on Corporate Advantage in Taiwan

The purpose of this study was to explore whether the performance of the green innovation brought positive effect to the competitive advantage. This study found that the performances of the green product innovation and green process innovation were positively correlated to the corporate competitive advantage. Therefore, the result meant that the investment in the green product innovation and green process innovation was helpful to the businesses. This study argued that the businesses should cognize the correct value and positioning of the green innovation.Dr. Chen is the assistant professor in the Department of Business Administration in National Yunlin University of Science & Technology in Taiwan. His research focused on management of technology, innovation management, corporate environmental management and intellectual capital. Dr. Lai is the professor in the Department of Business Administration in National Chengchi University in Taiwan. His research focused on management of technology, new product development and operation management. Dr. Lai is also the legislator in Taiwan. Dr. Wen is the professor in the Graduate Institute of Technology and Innovation Management in National Chengchi University in Taiwan. His research focused on corporate environmental management, marketing management of technology and entrepreneurship management. Dr. Wen is also the head of the EMBA (Executive MBA) program in the College of Commerce in National Chengchi University in Taiwan.     

品牌财务价值评估到品牌权益评估的发展分析

品牌价值及其相关概念的界定是做好品牌评估工作的基础。基于营销学概念的基础上分析得出:品牌财务价值评估主要针对企业的品牌价值与品牌资产,而品牌权益评估才真正以品牌权益为中心;与前者相比,后者能更好地指导企业的品牌实践活动。     

Consequences of consumer regret with online shopping

Negative online reviews can significantly hurt future sales. After impulsive decisions, consumers may feel regret and write negative online reviews. Two studies are conducted to understand the origin and consequences of negative reviews according to the review content and the responsibility for the mistake in the decision. The first study analyses the influence on the review creation of regret with the process and the outcome through structural equation modelling. For the second study, a 2 × 2 experimental design was conducted. This study analyses how different content in the review (regret with the process vs. regret with the outcome) and guilt of the error (the consumer vs. the seller) affects the perceived persuasiveness, usefulness and credibility of the information, and the intention to follow the advice. The results show that for generating negative reviews, it is the regret with the process coupled with the presence of regret with the outcome which ultimately leads to the intention to write negative reviews. However, the results of the second study show that reviews that criticize the outcome are more damaging than those that criticize the process. Furthermore, reviews that show regret in which the buyer is responsible affect readers more through the greater persuasion they generate.     

解析解混沌雷达系统的多目标测距

针对传统混沌雷达对多目标测距困难的问题,提出了一种建立在解析解系统上的混沌雷达多目标测距方法。该方法使用解析解混沌系统中的连续信号作为雷达发射信号,并把解析解混沌系统中的二值离散序列经移位寄存器保存在雷达接收端,通过保存的二值离散序列能够准确重构雷达发射信号模板。使用该模板和回波信号进行匹配滤波,通过匹配滤波输出信号的峰值得到待测目标的距离。该方法能够在-10 dB信噪比条件下实现多目标测距,且雷达接收端因为只需保存二值离散信号所以需要的存储空间小,实现过程成本低廉。仿真实验验证了提出方法的有效性。     

Relationship Quality of an Establishment and Perceived Value of a Purchase

Relationship quality is an emerging concept that attempts to measure the lifetime value of a customer. A review of the literature reveals that the indicators that determine the construct are satisfaction with the relationship, the customer's trust and the customer's level of commitment. The paper also considers how the perceived value of a purchase influences the quality of the relationship with an establishment, i.e. how a single transaction influences the valuation of a whole relationship. Gummeson [1987] considers that the quality of the relationship is the value accumulated during/throughout the relationship. This posits the existence of a causal link between perceived value and relationship quality. On the basis of an Expectancy–Value Model [Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975], and the model of Berkowitz [1993], we consider the relationships among the variables of the model. The results show that affect plays a fundamental role in long term valuation, while cognition is more influential in the short term. Another important conclusion is that the affective valuations made during the first moments have decisive consequences in the long term.     

世界经济失衡与资本失衡：基于《资本论》的视角

当今世界经济处于失衡之中,而在众多关于世界经济失衡的解释中,只有马克思主义的观点才真正抓住了失衡的本质。文章以马克思的《资本论》为基础,从探讨资本失衡导致世界经济失衡的过程出发,对资本在全球的积累、配置、流动、竞争和要素分配进行了分析,认为资本的失衡是世界经济失衡的本质原因,资本在全球的积累、配置、流动、竞争和要素分配的失衡导致了世界经济的失衡,从而勾勒出资本失衡导致世界经济失衡的全过程。     

Transitions in industrial research: the case of the Philips Natuurkundig Laboratorium (1914–1994)

In this article we describe the history of the Philips Natuurkundig Laboratorium (Nat.Lab.) in the Netherlands in the period 1914–1994. The article aims at considering three main research problems. Firstly, we pay attention to the process of institutionalisation of industrial research and development (R&D) in the twentieth century. Secondly, we place the history of the Nat.Lab. in the context of innovation in the Netherlands. Finally, we investigate the role of this industrial laboratory in its company, Philips Electronics. The historical account shows that the Nat.Lab.'s mission changed over time in accordance with the changes in its context and adapted its structure, culture and external contacts according to the needs of each new mission. Throughout time it remained a unique place for multidisciplinary research for the company.     

Minding our Ps and Qs: Exchange rates and foreign trade

Since early 1985, the dollar has been declining in the foreign exchange markets. An examination of interest rate patterns internationally suggests that the dollar's decline is not inflation induced. Taking the analysis one step further it is clear that Europe and Japan have had supply-side revolutions of their own. Therefore, the fall in the U.S. dollar appears to be the consequence of improved foreign economies. As such, the lower valued dollar will lead to improvements in the U.S. economy, especially in the tradable goods area. These improvements will not be made at the expense of the less tradable goods, however. The rich will get richer and so will the poor.     

朝鲜新义州经济特区解读

朝鲜设立新义州经济特区无疑是朝鲜近年来在经济改革中迈出的重要一步。与我国20世纪80年代初期在深圳设立经济特区相似的是：深圳经济特区的建立与发展得益于毗邻香港这一重要因素,新义州经济特区选择在中朝边境设立也是看中了我国东北在多年的经济改革和发展过程中所聚集的资金、技术和人才优势;而且。包括着中俄日韩几个经济大国部分地区在内的东北亚拥有的人才技术优势和丰富的矿产资源,它一直被称为世界经济发展的处女地,发展潜力巨大。无论是从摆脱国内日益严重的经济危机出发还是从积极参与东北亚区域经济合作、扩大本国经济开放程度而言。新义州经济特区的设立都有着非常重要的经济意义。     

Hidden costs of consumption

Consumers often underestimate the costs resulting from their consumer decisions. This is especially the case when purchasing durable consumer goods, but also for recreational activities, for which e.g. athletic equipment is bought. A similar situation exists when pets are kept. This disregard for the costs of subsequent use connected with the purchase of household appliances is problematic for consumers. In a study on the usage life of consumer goods¹ in the household, it was recognized that many consumers do not pay attention to these subsequent costs. The decisive consumer problem was not the durability of consumer goods, nor their tendency to become defective, but the resulting costs of the purchase, the operating costs of household appliances. On one hand, the working expenses are not considered at the time of purchase and their effect is not included in the purchase decision. On the other, the operating costs vary greatly, depending on the chosen type and model of appliance and, of course, on the specific form of utilization. In this paper, the question of the durability of consumer goods is first discussed with the help of empirical work. Then the hidden resulting costs, i.e. operating costs or costs of usage of consumer goods, are described. The resulting costs of keeping pets are also discussed. In the final part, the question of objective help for the consumer making purchase decisions is discussed.     

资本崇拜的宗教性及其悖谬——国际金融危机的经济哲学剖析

资本作为一种能够实现自行增值的价值,其逻辑是资本主义世界的运行基础,并构成资本主义社会的最高＂意识形态＂;作为资本宗教性质集中表达的资本拜物教,催生财富幻象化,引发资本的自反性并不可避免地导致资本主义金融危机。基于对资本逻辑的深刻洞察,马克思运用经济哲学的方法,系统地把握资本主义的本质特征和悖谬性质,并深刻地揭示资本世界自我否定和自我瓦解的必然性。坚持马克思主义资本批判理论对于超越资本逻辑、坚持社会主义经济制度具有重要的现实意义。     

What moves the tail? The determinants of the option‐implied probability density function of the DAX index

In this article a study of the option‐implied probability density function (PDF) of German stock returns is presented. The use of option prices allows for the quantification of the risk‐neutral probability of large movements in the DAX index. Using daily data for the period from December 1995 to May 2002, the mixture of log‐normals specification with a constant maturity of 49 days is estimated. The time series behavior of the option‐implied PDF during episodes of market turbulence is discussed at the outset. The main purpose of the study is to consider the relationship of summary measures of the option‐implied PDF to macroeconomic news, information from the U.S. stock market, and risk premia. The results suggest the existence of a significant spillover from the U.S. stock market. Returns and the volatility of U.S. stock prices have a strong effect on changes in the lower DAX tail probability, but also on the higher moments of the option‐implied PDF. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:515–536, 2005     

银行利润对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于中美两国数据的对比

随着中国利率市场化改革的深化,银行拥有更多的经营自主权,但银行在信贷市场中所处的垄断地位却没有随着利率市场化改革而相应改变。运用VECM模型对中国12家上市银行及同时期美国商业银行的利润增长对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明美国的银行利润增长显著促进了经济发展。相比之下,中国银行利润增长对经济发展的长期影响并不显著,而四大国有银行利润增长对经济发展有显著的阻碍作用,非国有银行利润增长则对经济发展有显著的促进作用。四大国有银行在信贷市场中的垄断地位导致其对经济发展产生阻碍,这意味着中国利率市场化改革及资本市场改革仍不彻底。因此,应鼓励非国有股份制银行发展,并进一步深化利率市场化改革及资本市场改革。     

美元霸权兴衰与逻辑演进

本文首先回顾了美元与国际货币的演化进程,诠释了美元霸权地位形成的路径,分析了美元作为经济武器能收割世界财富的缘由。其次,揭示了布雷顿森林体系解体后,美元仍然能收割世界财富的原因,说明了美国贸易逆差的实质。再次,分析了本次新冠疫情之后,美元霸权的延续可能会出现的一些颠覆性变化,以及美元作为主导货币地位的变化。最后,分析了国际货币体系未来会出现的几种情境,以及人民币在这一历史变局中的前景,并提出了中国在长周期应该采取的应对之策。     

风险、激励与监管:ISDS仲裁员的身份冲突及其化解

ISDS仲裁员具有较为明显的身份特征、地域来源及性别特征。为解决投资仲裁员分布不平衡的问题,ICSID已开始尽量选择女性仲裁员或来自发展中国家的仲裁员。当事方指定仲裁员的天然争论以及仲裁员多种身份的重复交互,导致了仲裁员之间的感知风险、妥协风险以及偏见风险。扩大仲裁管辖权和维持ISDS体系的利害关系是对仲裁员的两大主要激励路径。不同当事方在ISDS中选择仲裁员时存在不平等信息或信息不对称的问题,导致仲裁员信息灰色市场的产生,影响ISDS仲裁程序。仲裁员及时彻底披露其与当事方的关系和潜在的冲突对保障仲裁员的独立性和公正性至关重要。仲裁员的双重身份易产生争论点冲突,从而引发正当程序的问题。披露可能产生合理怀疑的情况并制定仲裁员的行为守则可一定程度上消除这种冲突。