广东省经济增长研究

次贷危机爆发以来,广东省经济形势严峻,GDP增长受到严重影响。究竟出口、外商直接投资、人民币实际汇率在广东经济发展中起到什么作用呢?为了研究三者对广东省GDP的影响,本文以协整理论为基础,讨论了出口总额、外商直接投资、人民币实际汇率与GDP之间的关系。结果表明:①出口的增加能够带动GDP的增长;②外商直接投资与广东省GDP长期内存在正相关关系;③人民币实际汇率虽然与GDP没有直接的显著关系,但与出口总额长期负相关,与外商直接投资长期正相关。最后,针对以上结论进行进一步分析,并提出几点意见和建议。     

Backward participation in global value chains and exchange rate driven adjustments of Swiss exports

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate movements on export volume, export revenues and propensity to export taking into account the extent of foreign value added content of exports (“backward integration”) in global value chains (GVCs). Using both product-level and firm-level panel data, our results suggest that Swiss exports (intensive margin) and the export probability (extensive margin) are negatively affected by a currency appreciation. However, this adverse effect is mitigated in sectors and firms that are more integrated in GVCs, which could be explained by the “natural hedging” of exchange rate movements. Our findings are robust to the use of different measures of natural hedging and GVC integration and also hold across various specifications and estimation methods that control for sample selection, firm heterogeneity, heteroskedastic errors and persistence in export behavior. The dynamic specifications also reveal that export hysteresis driven by a currency appreciation is a concern particularly for firms that are not established in export markets.     

Has pass-through to export prices risen? Evidence for Japan

This paper investigates the exchange rate response of Japanese export prices over the period 1980 through 2007 using sector-specific measures of the yen’s value relative to invoicing currencies. It finds a significant increase in the response of total export prices to the yen in the late 1990s. The rise in the total export price response is traced to increases in the exchange rate response of two key export sectors. These findings for Japanese exports are consistent with the documented decline in pass-through to OECD import prices and suggest the latter could originate with changes in export pricing behavior.     

Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors

Most studies of exchange rate exposure of stock returns do not address three relevant aspects simultaneously. They are, namely: sensitivity of stock returns to exchange rate changes; sensitivity of volatility of stock returns to volatility of changes in foreign exchange market; and the correlation between volatilities of stock returns and exchange rate changes. In this paper, we employ a bivariate GJR-GARCH model to examine all such aspects of exchange rate exposure of sectoral indexes in Japanese industries. Based on a sample data of fourteen sectors, we find significant evidence of exposed returns and its asymmetric conditional volatility of exchange rate exposure. In addition, returns in many sectors are correlated with those of exchange rate changes. We also find support for the “averaged-out exposure and asymmetries” argument. Our findings have direct implications for practitioners in formulating investment decisions and currency hedging strategies.     

Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates

This paper argues that China's exchange rate policy played a critical role in its FDI boom. Devaluation of the Yuan (Renminbi) and the policy of pegging the Yuan to the Dollar both improved China's competitiveness in attracting Foreign Direct Investment. Examining the hypothesis in the context of Japanese FDI for nine Chinese manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the empirical results show that the real exchange rate between the Yuan and Yen is one of the significant variables determining Japanese direct investment in China. The devaluation of the Yuan substantially enhanced inflows of direct investment from Japan, and the response of FDI to the change of the real exchange rate is elastic.     

辽宁省出口贸易的多因素分析

为了更好的发展辽宁省出口贸易,运用计量经济学的计量方法以及E-views软件,对辽宁省出口额、辽宁省地区生产总值、人民币汇率（人均年平均数,对美元）、居民消费价格指数、城镇新增固定资产进行回归分析,并且对模型的时间序列平稳性、多重共线性、异方差以及自相关进行检验。得出最终模型,分析表明居民消费价格指数、人民币汇率对产品出口具有很高的相关性,其次是地区生产总值,城镇新增固定资产也对辽宁出口贸易产生影响。     

Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom

Dutch disease models predict a primary export boom may result in deindustrialization due to an appreciating real exchange rate. This paper examines the effects on the Colombian economy of large increases in foreign exchange earnings from coffee and illegal drug exports. As predicted by Dutch disease models, the relative price of nontraded goods rose and the real exchange rate appreciated. Once the boom was over, both were slow to return to previous levels. Nontraded sectors are shown to have increased their growth rates during the boom years, while traded goods experienced slower growth. Non-coffee exports also grew more slowly. Econometric estimation shows that the real exchange rate was sensitive to the price of coffee and fiscal expansion, that sectoral production adjusts to the exchange rate and level of absorption as predicted, and that non-coffee exports respond to changes in the real exchange rate and foreign demand. The paper concludes with a discussion of economic policy in response to the export boom.     

China＇s FDI Net Inflow and Deterioration of Terms of Trade： Paradox and Explanation

Starting from the contradiction between China's sustained growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow and deterioration of the terms of trade, this paper analyzes the characteristics of FDI sectoral structure since the 1990. Moreover, considering the international market competitive environment, this paper gives a concrete analysis of the influence mechanism and concludes that the flowing of FDI into labor‐intensive export sectors caused the deterioration of China's terms of trade. To improve its terms of trade, China needs to direct FDI inflow into capital‐ and technology‐intensive sectors and service sectors. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

Overvaluation of the Real Exchange Rate and Export-related Loans in Korea

This paper discusses exchange rates, finance for exports and plant and equipment investment for export industries in Korea. The real effective exchange rate of the won was substantially overvalued in 1991 using 1985 as the base year. In addition, the amount of low interest export loans has dropped substantially since 1987. These factors are some of the most important reasons for the sluggish growth of Korean exports in recent years.     

新的人民币汇率形成机制下企业规避汇率风险的选择

新的人民币汇率形成机制下,央行继续维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定.但可以预见未来我国汇率的变化的频率将会加快、波动幅度将会扩大,进出口企业面临的汇率风险加大,企业应当通过加速出口产品的结构调整、拓展海外投资、充分利用现有的金融工具等几个方面规避日益增大的汇率风险.     

Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation

The roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the manufacturing industries have attracted research attention on the “new new trade theory.” The agricultural sectors also produce new goods using product differentiation through breeding, branding, and other activities. In reaction to globalization, the Japanese Government has sought to revitalize its agri-food sectors by promoting exports of differentiated products. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of this policy, focusing on five agri-food sectors other than grains. We simulate Japan’s three trade deals and a policy intervention that cuts fixed export costs to promote exports. We show that only a few agri-food sectors can increase exports and maintain domestic output under freer trade, and that export promotion would markedly increase entrants into export markets and increase exports of the vegetables and fruit, and processed food product sectors. In these trade deals, tariff and nontariff barriers have different impacts on trade, output, and farm/firm entry.     

Japanese foreign direct investment and regional trade

We examine the relationship between Japanese FDI outflows, domestic and foreign fixed investment, and the exchange rate. The results indicate that aggregate FDI outflows have been driven by investment in Japan and the exchange rate, while the geographic distribution of such investment has been influenced by foreign economic conditions. We also find that FDI outflows have a temporary impact on exports but a permanent effect on imports. We find no evidence that behavior with respect to East Asia differs from that with respect to North America or Europe.     

FDI如何影响本地企业出口——来自中国制造业的发现

文章从理论上分析了外资进入影响本地企业出口行为的机制，并在构造外资溢出三类指标的基础上，运用1998-2007年中国制造业企业数据实证检验了外资溢出对本地企业出口参与决策和出口规模的影响。研究表明：（1）外资企业通过行业内水平溢出和行业间前向关联溢出显著促进了本地企业的出口参与决策，并提高了本地企业的出口规模；（2）外资行业间后向关联溢出对本地企业出口参与决策的影响不明显，但扩大了已出口企业的出口规模，控制内生性后结论仍成立；（3）外资进入对本地企业出口行为的影响因外资来源地和本地企业所有制性质的不同而存在显著的差异性。     

Effect of exchange rate risk on intra-EC trade

Summary The smooth development of the EMS towrds an exchange rate system with fixed exchange rates among its member countries recently came to an abrupt (temporary) end. This raises the question whether exchange rate volatility is damaging to international trade. So far, it has remained an open empirical question whether exchange rate variability has the presumed negative effects. This article shows that the exports of five countries participating in the ERM have substantially benefited from the diminische exchange rate risk in the period from 1979 up to and including 1990. Contrary to former empirical studies, which deal with figures for total trade or total trade or total manufactures, the analysis here has been conducted for exports broken down by type of product. The study suggests that a more disaggregated analysis, with respect to products or sectors, might be a fruitful way of identifying the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade.     

进口国汇率及其波动对福建省出口贸易的影响

本文利用月度数据,研究进口国名义汇率、名义汇率波动率、实际汇率、实际汇率波动率对福建省出口贸易的影响,通过协整检验来估计各变量间长期均衡关系。研究表明,福建省向美日韩、欧盟等国的出口与该国汇率及其波动无关,而福建省向香港、台湾、新加坡等地的出口则很大程度上受到其汇率水平变化的影响,但汇率波动率的影响却较小。同时,实证检验还发现,对于关注汇率变化的进口国而言,名义汇率和实际汇率水平的变化,对贸易的影响程度基本相同。     

中部地区对外贸易影响因素的实证分析

长期以来,尽管中部地区对外贸易取得了较快地发展,但在全国依然处于比较落后的地位。本文利用最新时间序列数据,通过建立多变量回归模型,对中部地区对外贸易的影响因素进行了实证分析。分析认为,中部地区出口贸易和进口贸易的影响因素存在很大差异。出口贸易影响因素主要是贸易条件、进口贸易和全社会固定资产投资;而进口贸易的主要影响因素是汇率、国内生产总值、外商直接投资和人力资本;很多影响因素对中部地区对外贸易没有起到应有的作用。     

Economic Liberalization and Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Asymmetric GARCH Analysis

Abstract: For small open economies, an understanding of movements in the exchange rate is imperative in analyzing trade and capital flows. In addition, reliable forecasting of exchange rate volatility is important in risk‐taking assessment and investment decision‐making, both of which are critical to long‐term growth. Using an asymmetric GARCH‐type approach, this paper examines the implications of economic liberalization on the stochastic behavior of the exchange rate series in a sample of sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries over the 1970–2004 period. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility is variable, and is less volatile under fixed exchange rate regime (pre‐economic liberalization) and higher under flexible regime (post‐economic liberalization), that is, it is asymmetric. For most of the countries, the EGARCH and TGARCH models are robust to parameter stability and gives better forecasting performance compared to the standard GARCH model.     

Economy of Russia’s Northern regions: Investment in fixed assets

This article discusses the features of the dynamics of investment in fixed assets in northern regions and the main factors of its rapid growth before the crisis and sharp decline in the crisis period. The contribution of individual regions to the growth rate of investment in the entire economy of the North is determined, and the territorial structure of investment by sectors and types of economic activity and the main sources of financing and changes in the structure of investment are investigated. An evaluation of the tendency towards investment and the investment attractiveness of northern regions are given.     

广州港港口货物吞吐量与区域经济灰色关联度分析

港口物流和区域经济互相促进、共同发展。以广州港为例,把港口货物吞吐量作为衡量港口物流的主要指标,选取广州市的 GDP、一二三各产业产值、外贸进出口总额、固定资产投资6项指标代表区域经济,运用灰色关联度模型对广州市进行分析,得到广州市GDP、一二三各产业产值、外贸进出口总额、固定资产投资6项指标对港口物流影响的大小关系。     

我国外汇储备影响因素分析与汇率制度选择

本文通过误差修正模型分析了我国外汇储备长期和短期的影响因素,认为短期影响因素是进出口额与外商直接投资。根据模型结论,本文认为继续深化汇率体制改革,适度加快人民币升值和扩大波动区间,利用汇率自身与对进出口额的杠杆作用,直接和间接地将外汇储备控制在合理的范围内。