Factional Conflict Through the Generations

There are some kinds of violent conflicts between factions in which one generation of belligerents trains a successive generation to continue and/ or enlarge the scale of conflict in an arena where the hostilities are internecine A model is developed of the devolution of internecine conflict using the lexicon of game theory and the simple mathematics of probability Assumptions pertaining to the behavior and attitudes of factions are transcribed into mathematics to formulate a theory of conflict resolution The theory is general enough to be applied to the struggles in the Middle East as well as to warfare among youth gangs The chief proposition to emerge from the analysis demonstrates how the statistical incidence of aggressive and peaceable factions varies over time The time path has the characteristics of a stochastic process with estimable parameters     

The Born‐Again Favela: The Urban Informality of Pentecostalism in Rio de Janeiro

Since the 1980s, the metropolitan spaces of Brazil have seen a significant upsurge of the Christian Pentecostal movement, which today dominates the religious landscape of the favelas. In Rio de Janeiro, the rise of Pentecostalism coincided with the establishment of drug gangs as actors controlling favela territories. Based on an ethnographic field study conducted in a favela complex in the city's Zona Norte, this article examines the role and significance of the Pentecostal churches in Rio's favelas, both in everyday urban life and in the ways these areas are governed. One of my focal points of analysis is the increasing entanglement of actors in the drug industry and church actors. The article posits that the Pentecostal churches' role and significance, their institutional shape and their followers' practices are inextricably intertwined with the favela's social, spatial and political structural patterns. It shows the ways in which the evolving Pentecostal movement has permeated all aspects of the favela's informal way of urban life and government and has produced a new urban religious configuration in which the Pentecostal movement and the favela are intertwined and transform each other.     

Spatial majority voting equilibria and the provision of public goods

This paper develops general equilibrium conditions for urban areas where a pure public good is provided at a level decided upon by majority voting. Models with a property tax and a head tax and external land ownership are analyzed, and equilibrium solutions are compared using a specific form for the utility function. Optimal cities are characterized and compared to those emerging from the majority voting equilibria. Models where aggregate land rent is divided equally among the urban residents are also developed.     

Anticipating public expectations of humanitarian action—An ethnographic study of recruiting donors through face‐to‐face fundraising

In this article, we show how anticipating public opinion reinforces the tendencies of fundraising to work against the long‐term aims of humanitarian non‐governmental organisations through investigating the practices of face‐to‐face fundraising. The data of this qualitative analysis are based on the field notes of 45 encounters where we subjected ourselves to the fundraising performances of face‐to‐face campaigners. Furthermore, we conducted 12 semistructured interviews with fundraising and communication experts and made participant observations in the training sessions of new fundraisers and fundraising workshops. Through abductive content analysis, we show that face‐to‐face fundraising campaigns are designed to be simple and appealing rather than informative. The designers expect that audiences will not be able to digest complex information during brief encounters on the street. With advice from trainers, street fundraisers transform predesigned campaign materials into catchy, emotion‐loaded narratives. Street campaigners are also advised to echo the opinions of passers‐by. On the streets, campaigners need to establish a sense of proximity between the public and beneficiaries, (over)emphasise the agency capacities of donors, and particularise the humanitarian agenda according to the preferences of their audiences. Subsequently, our results show how anticipating public expectations sets manifold conditions for the discursive content of face‐to‐face fundraising.     

Property taxation and local public spending: the renter effect

The point of departure for this study is the pervasive finding that, other things equal, local jurisdictions tend to spend more on local services the larger the fraction of renters among their residents. This paper seeks to determine the approximate magnitude of this “renter effect” by posing the question “How much smaller would local public budgets be if all residents were home-owners?” Making use of two quite different approaches, the paper finds a typical renter effect on local public expenditure on the order of ten percent. This finding suggests that we might do well to reform the administration of the property tax so that changes in property tax liabilities on rental dwellings are directly and visibly transformed into changes of monthly rental payments.     

利益相关者合作逻辑下的我国城市社区治理结构

社区治理是社区利益相关者通过面对面协商,增进共识,消除分歧,合作互动,共同解决社区公共问题的过程,其实质是建立在社区公共利益与社区认同基础上的社区利益相关者的合作.社区治理要实现对公共事务的有效管理,实现公共利益的最大化,关键性因素就是建立利益相关者之间的协调参与网络,使政府、社区组织和居民等多方利益主体在持续的互动过程中经过重复的博弈而建立的合作与互惠关系,为社区公共事务的共同治理奠定良好的基础.     

Exploratory analyses of relief and development operations using social networks

We use social networks to explore how structural factors affect humanitarian organizations’ performance in relief and development operations. Analyses of two recent humanitarian disasters show that having pre-established partnerships among implementers, a central coordinator, high connectivity, and few structural holes facilitates coordination and improves performance. Similarly, cost efficiency analyses of 757 development programs reveal that (i) high performance of donors and beneficiaries is positively related to the amount of implementers they interact with, and (ii) programs connected by common actors are more cost efficient. Finally, short path lengths and frequent connections among actors or programs improve performance in humanitarian operations.     

On the unique features of post-disaster humanitarian logistics

Logistic activity can be thought of as a socio-technical process whereby a social network of individuals orchestrates a series of technical activities using supporting systems such as transportation and communications. To understand the functioning of the entire system requires proper consideration of all its components. We identify seven key components: the objectives being pursued, the origin of the commodity flows to be transported, knowledge of demand, the decision-making structure, periodicity and volume of logistic activities, and the state of the social networks and supporting systems. Based on our analysis of the differences between commercial and humanitarian logistics, we pinpoint research gaps that need to be filled to enhance both the efficiency of humanitarian logistics and the realism of the mathematical models designed to support it.We argue that humanitarian logistics is too broad a field to fit neatly into a single definition of operational conditions. At one end of the spectrum we find humanitarian logistic efforts of the kind conducted in long-term disaster recovery and humanitarian assistance, where operational efficiency – akin to commercial logistics – is a prime consideration. At the other, post-disaster humanitarian logistic operations involved in disaster response and short-term recovery activities represent a vastly different operational environment, often in chaotic settings where urgent needs, life-or-death decisions and scarce resources are the norm. The huge contrast between these operational environments requires that they be treated separately.     

The Good Samaritan and the Marketer: public perceptions of humanitarian and international development NGOs

• This article reports on a nationwide study investigating public responses to humanitarian communications. Based on focus group data with members of the UK public, the paper discusses two key models through which NGOs identities and activities are understood and judged, both positively and negatively: the Good Samaritan and the Marketer. Thematic analysis of the focus groups extracts exposes the salience of these models in people's thinking, how they speak to each other and how they inform and affect the relationship between NGOs and public. The paper discusses the themes in relation to current debates on organisations' image and trust and confidence in nonprofit organisations and humanitarian NGOs. The data show deep public disillusionment and disappointment deriving from the recognition of the Marketer model being applied to and employed within the realm of humanitarianism. This suggests that NGOs' moving away from traditional notions of charity might be counterproductive and in the long‐term risky. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

     

Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where are the needs for further research. We conducted a structured literature search in Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar resulted in only 38 papers published between 1990 and 2018. Based on our findings we highlight three case studies as exemplary research in forecasting within the humanitarian context and list seven future research streams with specific research needs identified in each stream.     

Private contracts for durable local public good provision

This paper presents a model of imperfectly durable local public good provision in a dynamic development framework. The private provision of these goods under contracts between developers and residents of condominium and homeowners' associations is examined. An optimal trajectory of public goods is determined and compared to time consistent contractual trajectories. This comparison is used to explain why developers typically transfer control of maintenance of these goods to residents before the development process ends. The optimal date to transfer control is determined and compared to existing contracts and recommendations in the industry literature. The optimal transfer date is nondecreasing in community size and length of the development process.     

基于ACSI的政府危机管理公众满意度指数模型实证分析

危机管理的研究越来越关注群体层面,加之＂新公共管理＂运动在世界范围内的影响,使得＂公众满意度＂成为衡量公共部门绩效的重要价值取向。本文从公众满意度的角度出发,在文献研究的基础上,建构了适用于中国政府公共危机管理评价的新型满意度测评指标模型GCMSI（政府危机管理满意度指数）,旨在找出政府危机管理过程中影响公众满意度的关键因素,探究模型的作用机理,从而从实践层面上对政府公共危机管理能力的改进提供指导性的参考与建议,并从理论层面上填补该领域研究的空白。     

北京老城区居民邻里关系调查分析

基于2006年完成的问卷调查和分析,认为当前北京城区居民的邻里关系在总体上呈现表面化和浅层次的特点;邻里之间日常互动的频率相对比较低,而拥有住房产权和不拥有住房产权的居民之间、北京出生和外地出生的居民之间、楼房和平房居民之间在邻里交往方面存在一定的差异性;尽管北京城四区居民的居住格局发生了很大的变化,邻里之间仍然存在着非常重要的守望相助这一日常的社会支持功能.     

Entrepreneurial Religion in the Age of Neoliberal Urbanism

The introduction to this symposium on entrepreneurial religion and neoliberal urbanism discusses leading scholarly approaches to religion and urban theory, arguing that, despite their merits, these approaches are in need of refinement. Theories on religion and urban theory too often describe religion as a reactionary phenomenon. Religious movements and spaces are generally defined as pockets of resistance and shelter against retreating or failing states under neoliberal restructuring programmes in the shadow of consumption dreams. Although religious actors and ideologies unquestionably form part of urban groups that are denied access to public and private means to wealth and security, the contributors to this symposium argue that within a global, comparative perspective, the entwinement of religion, state and market reveal more complicated configurations. Through a comparison of Islamic gated communities in Istanbul, Pentecostal prayer camps in Lagos and Pentecostal grassroots movements in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro, this symposium demonstrates that urban religion should also be regarded as a constitutive force of contemporary capitalism and should therefore be placed at the heart of the neoliberal construction of urban space instead of at its margins.     

世界遗产地社区居民旅游影响感知实证分析——以乐山大佛世界遗产地为例

为研究世界遗产地社区居民对旅游影响的感知度,文章以四川乐山大佛世界遗产地为例,对400位社区居民进行问卷调查,借助统计软件SPSS13.0,运用因子分析方法、方差分析方法和列联表分析方法对居民感知度的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,乐山大佛世界遗产地社区居民对旅游影响的感知度普遍较高,同时职业、学历、收入比重、家庭住址、居住年限等因素对居民感知度指标有显著影响,建议采取切实有效的措施以提高世界遗产地社区居民的正面感知度。     

A Socio‐Technical Perspective To The Right To The City: Regularizing Electricity Access in Rio de Janeiro's Favelas

This article takes the contemporary transformation in electricity access in Rio de Janeiro's favelas as a starting point for a broader review of the relationship between the right to the city in informal settlements and the neoliberalization of the electricity service (introduction of full cost recovery and ‘the user pays' principle). It examines the socio‐technical process through which contractual customer relationships have been established or restored through regularization of the electricity service in two favelas, namely, the installation of meters and networks. I suggest that applying a science and technology study perspective to the right to the city helps explore both the materiality and the spatial dimension of power and politics and, in so doing, provides an insight into some of the forms of mediation that help reshape recognition, urban practices and the favela dwellers' position within such an essential service. Our analysis shows how the means of recognizing these city dwellers ‘by the network' are materially and symbolically reshaped by commercial processes. The question then is whether this right to the city, which is being reshaped by commercial processes, will be the source of new inequalities or new politicizations.     

Space and Identity in Resistance against Neoliberal Urban Planning in Turkey

This article highlights the role of collective identity and space in the emergence of social resistance within a neoliberal context. It argues that the attempted eviction of residents from their established neighbourhoods through public planning projects generates resistance against the reappropriation of these spaces and has encouraged new forms of resistance among inhabitants in several neighbourhoods. I particularly emphasize that planning projects often displace particular populations by force, principally minority communities, in order to confine them to new resettlement areas far from their customary living places, which has a socioeconomic impact on people's identity, everyday life and social solidarity. The article is based on empirical research in two neighbourhoods in Istanbul — 1 May?s and Sulukule — to analyse practices of resistance of inhabitants in everyday life and examine how this resistance shapes their identity and daily life.     

Efficient inequality: differential allocation in the local public sector

This paper examines the consequences for social efficiency if the locally provided public input can be differentially allocated among residents. We derive the distributional efficiency condition, which is the distribution of public inputs that maximizes within-city gains from trade. Differential allocation also causes modifications to the standard (Samuelsonian) allocative efficiency condition. Additionally, we explore the consequences of differential allocation for the median voter model. Standard empirical voter models are seriously flawed because they fail to distinguish final public output production from either individual demand or the distribution of publicly provided inputs. Finally, we derive the club sharing efficiency condition.     

Measuring the consequences of promoting inner city homeownership

This paper examines low- and moderate-income households in the City of Philadelphia who are becoming homeowners for the first time. We examine two Nehemiah developments subsidized by the City of Philadelphia that offer newly constructed homes at well-below cost. This paper uses a unique survey of these new owners to measure what Nehemiah residents gain in terms of structure and community attributes as they make the transition from renting to owning. The new owners in the Nehemiah complexes significantly improve their housing structures while raising their exposure to crime and weak local public schools. As part of the City’s community development strategy, these developments were expected to increase economic activity near these sites. We document that there is no evidence of local benefit spillovers for census tracts where the Nehemiah developments were built. Our survey results suggest that the new housing developments represent an “oasis” where there are few interactions between the new homeowners and the incumbent residents of the greater community.     

Contradictions of the Climate-Friendly City: New Perspectives on Eco-Gentrification and Housing Justice

As local governments and corporations promote ‘climate friendliness’, and a low-carbon lifestyle becomes increasingly desirable, more middle- and upper-income urban residents are choosing to live near public transit, on bike- and pedestrian-friendly streets, and in higher-density mixed-use areas. This rejection of classical forms of suburbanization has, in part, increased property values in neighborhoods offering these amenities, displacing lower-income, often non-white, residents. Increased prevalence of creative and technology workers appears to accelerate this trend. We argue that a significant and understudied socio-environmental contradiction also occurs where the actual environmental outcomes of neighborhood transformation may not be what we expect. New research on greenhouse gas emissions shows that more affluent residents have much larger carbon footprints because of their consumption, even when reductions in transportation or building energy emissions are included. We describe an area in Seattle, Washington, the location of Amazon's headquarters, experiencing this contradiction and show a distinct convergence of city investments in low-carbon infrastructure, significant rises in housing prices and decreases in lower-income and non-white residents. We conclude with a discussion of a range of issues that require more attention by scholars interested in housing justice and/or urban sustainability.