Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in

While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay more attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL INTERACTIONS: SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS

We model policy interactions in a growing economy. Unemployment can persist and matters for the real wage; conflicting claims underpin inflation outcomes; and aggregate demand determines capacity utilization and unemployment. Monetary policy is characterized by a Taylor rule. Fiscal policy is characterized by a marginal tendency to run deficits or surpluses. We address three questions: can monetary policy ensure macroeconomic stability in the absence of coordinated fiscal policy, can fiscal policy ensure macroeconomic stability when the monetary authority pegs the interest rate, and can policy authorities trade‐off some sustained inflation for a long‐run improvement in unemployment rates?     

How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk

The economic literature has been forceful on the role of fiscal institutions in attenuating economic fluctuations. In particular, the implementation of fiscal rules has gained importance in the toolkit of macroeconomic stabilization policies. This paper studies the effect of fiscal rule implementation on sovereign default risk and on the probability of capital flow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that fiscal rules are beneficial for macroeconomic stability, as they significantly reduce both sovereign risk and the probability of a sudden stop in countries that implement them. These results, which are robust to various empirical specifications, have important policy implications specially for countries that have relaxed their fiscal rules in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.     

Sovereign risk and procyclical fiscal policy in emerging market economies

This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for the differences in fiscal policy stance over the business cycle between developed and emerging market countries, and, in particular, for the volatile and procyclical government consumption and transfer payment in emerging market countries. Two models with and without default option in sovereign borrowings replicate the contrasting cyclical behaviors indicating that the default option is responsible for procyclical fiscal policy. Further, augmented model with third-party bailouts, together with the stochastic trend income process, successfully predicts high volatilities of fiscal expenditures. These imply that procyclical fiscal policy, entailed by default option, may exacerbate the business cycle in emerging market countries.     

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, Asian Economic Papers, 9, 2010 and 54, explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial, and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.     

战略性新兴产业财税政策实施效果研究--以陕西省数据为样本

本文运用耦合与协调模型,建立经济贡献、社会贡献、行业贡献、教育及科技贡献四个子系统共28个指标,为战略性新兴产业财税政策实施效果的评价构建了一个合理的框架。通过陕西省相关数据进行实证研究后发现,战略性新兴产业对经济和社会贡献度稳步提升,二者在大态势上呈现同步增长;不足之处在于政策实施的反馈作用滞后,导致协调度大于耦合度,内部要素相互影响、相互促进的程度有待提高。此外,财税政策促使行业贡献与教育及科技贡献的系统内部配合度上升趋势明显,但数值依然较小。鉴于此,应从观念、政策调整力度以及发展路径上对财税政策进行全方位评价与改进,以期推动战略性新兴产业健康发展。     

Fiscal Stimulus,Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia

Recent debates on a sustainable recovery of the global economy have tended to overemphasise the ‘savings glut’ hypothesis and the unavoidable imperative of higher consumption in China and other emerging Asian countries. That oversaving and not underinvestment is coming in the way of a quicker and more durable recovery is not just simplistic but misleading from a medium‐term growth perspective for emerging Asian countries and other developing countries in this region. Drawing upon country panel data for developing countries and a subsample of Asian countries during the period 1991–2007, this study makes a case for a bold and coordinated fiscal stimulus, directed to stimulating agricultural and overall growth, and mitigation of poverty and hunger. Our simulations further suggest that poverty reduction is likely to be larger if the fiscal stimulus is directed to social spending in health and education sectors. Indeed, if our simulations of fiscal impacts have any validity, the dire predictions of millions getting trapped in poverty and hunger may turn out to be exaggerated. The prospects of a strong recovery led by fiscal stimulus are thus real and achievable.     

Keynote Speech: Macro-Financial Policy Challenges in the Face of a Complex Environment: The Case of Mexico

Emerging economies face a complex environment as of April 2015, mostly as a result of a slowdown in global growth, an increased risk of capital flow reversals, and a reduction in the price of oil. Due to the effects of this reduction on external and fiscal balance, the environment is particularly adverse for oil-exporting countries. This article reviews the different channels through which the environment entails financial risk for emerging economies, focusing on Mexico, an emerging and oil-exporting country. Our analysis reveals that this country faces several macro-financial policy challenges stemming from the aforementioned financial risks.     

新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

大力发展风险投资加快培育战略性新兴产业

战略性新兴产业是新兴科技和新兴产业的深度融合.发展战略性新兴产业,是我国立足当前渡难关、着眼长远上水平的重大战略选择,不仅会对我国当前经济社会发展起重要的支撑作用,还将引领我国未来经济社会可持续发展的战略方向.在危机中得以历练和发展的风险投资行业,将成为促进我国战略性新兴产业发展最活跃的一支力量.要大力发展创业投资引导基金,创新财政资金投入方式和运作机制,引导社会资金投向政府有意重点发展的高新技术等关键领域或处于种子期、成长期的创业企业,引导民间资本进入专业化、规范化的投资运作渠道;要推动风险投资中介组织发展,加强行业自律和行业监管;要积极探索发展场外交易市场,有效拓宽风险投资进入与退出渠道;要贯彻实施创业风险投资人才培养和储备战略,培养一大批具有复合技能的风险投资家.     

危机后新兴大国产业结构调整的战略与政策研究

危机后新兴大国顺应世界产业调整与发展的趋势,结合国内经济结构转型需要,纷纷调整本国产业结构,其战略主要包括：推动制造业升级,提升产业竞争优势;加大科技投入力度,在新兴产业领域寻求战略突破;应对国际需求萎缩,谋求服务业更大的发展空间;扶持农业发展,夯实农业的基础地位。新兴大国从资本、技术与市场三方面入手,落实产业结构调整战略的政策与手段主要包括：提供融资支持,调整财政投入重点,加大资本投入;调整科技政策,加强国际技术合作,提升产业技术水平;改善收入分配,支持出口,扩大产业发展的市场需求。     

Fiscal policy,monetary policy and external imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa's three largest economies

This paper determines which of the three policy approaches: fiscal, monetary and exchange rate can better address external imbalances in the three largest African economies, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. To this end, use is made of the panel vector autoregressive model to assess the dynamic effects of shocks emanating from the three policy approaches. The findings of the paper indicate that unlike in many emerging and developed economies the current accounts of these three economies react to fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks. More particular, the results of the empirical analysis show that the appreciations of the currencies in the three economies lead to current account surpluses. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most African economies have a high propensity to import with limited productive capacity for exports.     

Stabilization and real adjustment in emerging market economies

Based on theory and on evidence from the Southern Cone the following paper concludes for emerging market economies (1) that fiscal reform is of utmost importance for macroeconomic reforms, (2) that credibility cannot be imported via a fixed exchange rate but has to be established by internal reforms and (3) that an exchange rate based stabilization remains a high-risk strategy even in the case of strong adjustment efforts.     

新形势下推进河北对外贸易的思考

在本轮经济危机中,主要依靠宽松货币政策和财政政策的刺激而启动的全球经济复苏,态势缓慢乏力,欧美国家更是将世界经济失衡的原因归咎于新兴经济体的快速发展及全球经济一体化带来的负面影响,致使经济发达国家放任本币贬值,更加注重通过增加出口来提振本国经济,加大对中国等发展中国家进口产品的限制,无端制造贸易摩擦,出台层出不穷的贸易保护措施,各国在争夺整体需求增长乏力的国际市场上的竞争更加激烈,致使我们面临的国际贸易环境更趋复杂。     

Global impact of loss of confidence in Asian emerging markets

With the interest rate hike in the US and, more recently, in the UK, sudden stops in investments and capital reversals are apparent in the Asian emerging economies. A modelling approach is taken, using the G-Cubed model, to simulate the potential global economic impacts, with a focus on Asia. The results demonstrate that myopic fiscal interventions in Asian emerging economies could result in short-term stimulus, at the expense of long-term growth. The stimulus in advanced economies too would be short-lived, diverting the benefits to unintended fractions in the global economy. Advanced economies that minimally change their trade and investment patterns tend to avoid distortionary impacts of the crisis.     

财税政策不确定性的衡量——基于适应性学习预期的分析框架

我国财税政策重视短期矛盾调节而忽视长期稳定性,但鲜有研究论及财税政策不确定性问题,其中财税政策不确定性的衡量是重点也是难点。本文在适应性学习预期的分析框架下,对市场主体不同政策学习模式进行甄别,发现我国市场主体倾向于采取重视近期经验的持续性学习策略组成财税政策预期,并且政策预期不能向理性预期收敛,证明我国存在财税政策不确定性。然后,在此基础上构建相应指标来衡量我国财税政策不确定性程度。结果显示,由于财税政策规则不具备动态稳定性以及由此导致预期模式的不稳定,我国财税政策不确定性呈现内生性和系统性特征。本文进一步通过财税政策不确定性的宏观经济效应检验,发现其对生产、物价、出口等产生负面冲击,并且对生产导致符合经典理论的“超调”效应,在一定程度佐证了本文财税政策不确定性指标的一致性。最后,本文对治理财税政策不确定性提出相应政策建议。     

财政风险的再界定及其成因分析：基于理性方法的视角

尽管实际的财政工作中,普遍把赤字率、债务率等指标作为判断财政风险的准则,但在理论上如何界定财政风险尚未达成共识。本文在相关研究的基础之上,试图运用理性方法来重新界定财政风险,分析认为：财政风险是社会“公正正义”的共性准则无法实现的可能性,财政风险是社会风险的表现形式,这和主流理论运用经验方法对财政风险的界定有较大的区别。基于此,探讨财政风险形成的原因并形成了对财政风险进行管理的基本认识。     

市场分割对地方财政收入增长影响的跨地区和跨时效应:1986—2008

利用1986—2008年中国大陆各省市场分割指数面板数据,从实证的角度检验地方政府市场分割对财政收入的影响,结果表明:市场分割会阻碍地区财政收入增长,并且存在显著的跨地区和跨时效应;财政分权和经济增长是促进地区财政收入增长的主要原因。