Equity investment prospects in emerging markets

The Mexican debacle in late 1994 had a contagious, if short-lived impact on emerging markets. Evidence suggests that fund managers panicked and withdrew investments. Portfolio equity flows to emerging markets decreased by more than a third in 1995. The investor base shrank. The longterm case for investing in emerging markets is, however, very strong. Most of them are growing faster, some much faster, than developed countries, and are likely to yield higher returns on investment. By one estimate, emerging markets will increase their share of world stock market capitalization from 15 percent in 1995 to 45 percent in 2010. The article will review the trends in private capital flows and prospects for the future, focusing on opportunities in East Asia as an example. The author discusses the investment strategies that help explain the panic of 1995 and proposes a more analytical approach to investment in developed markets and the information needed to facilitate its adoption.     

An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

Commodity futures and equity markets differ in several important respects. Nevertheless, it was found that momentum profits in commodities are highly significant for holding periods as long as 9 months, and returns to momentum strategies are roughly equal in magnitude to those that have been reported in stocks. The profits documented are too large to be subsumed by transactions costs. Although the momentum strategies appear to be quite risky, their profitability cannot be fully accounted for in the context of a market factor model. Further, it is shown that momentum profits eventually reverse if positions are maintained long enough after portfolio formation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:227–256, 2007     

On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in bond yields and common sources of variation. Results suggest that EM dollar-denominated debt markets are highly integrated; one common factor, highly correlated with US and EU interest rates, explains 80% of the total variability in yields. Local currency bond markets are not as internationally integrated, and three common factors explain 74% of total variability. But a global interest rates factor still explains 63% of the yield variation accounted for by common factors. Heterogeneity among EMs is explored.     

Organizational entrainment and international new ventures from emerging markets

Organizational entrainment captures the temporal fit in the activity cycles between exchange partners. We argue that organizational entrainment between international new ventures (INVs) and their most important international customers positively moderates the relationship between the degree, scope, and speed of internationalization and performance of INVs. We test our hypotheses on INVs from China, India and South Africa. The results support the contingent role of entrainment for degree and scope of internationalization but not for speed. Findings suggest that, when INVs attain temporal fit with their most important international customers, they can implement their strategic goals in international markets more effectively.     

Response strategies of local firms to import competition in emerging markets

Using a sample of 3808 firms from 1996 to 2007, the impact of three strategic options that can be implemented by local Asian (i.e., Indian) firms facing increased import competition in their domestic market is analyzed. On average, firms with greater investments in intangible resources and tighter product focus do better, while firms with greater international sales perform poorly compared to their peers. However, in industries characterized by high import competition, firms with international operations and product focus tend to have higher performance, while firms with intangible resources perform poorly.     

Exploring and investigating sustainable international business practices by MNEs in emerging markets

While there are a number of dimensions to sustainability, ranging from the environmental to the social, a common assumption in the literature is that firms from the mature markets are more likely to have the capacity and indeed, rationale to take sustainability more seriously. Emerging market counterparts, MNEs included, are seen to lag behind in sustainable practices. However, recent developments challenge this conventional wisdom. This article introduces the special issue on ‘Sustainable International Business Practices by MNEs in Emerging Markets, and highlights emerging themes which are promising future directions for theoretical and empirical enquiry.     

Differentiation strategies in emerging markets: The case of Latin American agribusinesses

This study furthers the research agenda on Porter's generic strategies by exploring their implementation by firms that suffer from under representation in the literature. It focuses on agribusinesses based in emerging markets that specialize in high value added products. Relying on information collected through interviews, and a survey with 66 agribusinesses based in eight countries of Latin America, it examines the factors that distinguish firms implementing a differentiation strategy (DS). The findings provide interesting insights for scholars and practitioners alike, illustrating the strategic initiatives that DS firms use to ensure they command higher than average prices.     

Balancing social and political strategies in emerging markets: Evidence from India

This article explores the substitution and complementary effects between political and social strategies on firm performance in the context of an emerging market (EM). Using in‐depth, historical case‐study approach, the article investigates how companies integrate political and social resources in this market. Corporate performance includes traditional measures, such as accounting performance and nonfinancial measures like the ease of doing business. The study finds that social strategies are stronger enablers of firm long‐term performance than political strategies. The latter have a short‐term impact on performance, but their success over time is limited. The main drawback of reliance on political resources in EMs is the lack of political stability, fragmented polity, and weak political coalitions. We identify rather limited evidence of firms using these two strategies as complements. Thus, we suggest that firms should employ both these strategies in the EM.     

Foreign direct investment,institutional quality,economic freedom and entrepreneurship in emerging markets

This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment, institutional quality, economic freedom, and entrepreneurship in emerging markets. The research compares the capacity and appetite for business creation among high-income, low-income and emerging countries. The results are based on a panel study of data, from 2004 to 2009 for 87 countries, using as its source “The World Bank Entrepreneurship Snapshots” to look at the connection between business creation, institutional quality, market freedom and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal a strong positive relationship between institutional quality and business generation in all three of the above categories. The freedom to create businesses and invest has an impact on business generation in emerging countries, while the influence of international trade appears more important as a spur to the genesis of business in low-income countries. Finally, there is a direct and significant relationship between FDI and business development in emerging countries. This result is consistent with “the spillover theory of entrepreneurship” (,  and ).     

Size,value, profitability,and investment: Evidence from emerging markets

In this study, we investigate how the Fama and French three-, four-, and five-factor models perform in emerging markets. We find that the four- and five-factor models perform better than the three-factor model in most of our tests. We note that the value factor seems to be somewhat redundant in the presence of profitability and investment factors. We find clear evidence of size effects in average stock excess returns, little evidence of value and profitability effects, and some investment effects. Finally, the local factors perform better than the US and global factors do, showing evidence of emerging market segmentation.     

Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets

We examine the trading strategies of mutual funds in emerging markets. We develop a method for disentangling the behavior of fund managers from that of underlying investors. For both managers and investors, we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no momentum trading: mutual funds systematically sell losers and buy winners. Selling current losers and buying current winners is stronger during crises, and equally strong for managers and investors. Selling past losers and buying past winners is stronger for managers. Managers and investors also practice contagion trading—they sell (buy) assets from one country when asset prices fall (rise) in another.     

Predicting default probabilities and implementing trading strategies for emerging markets bond portfolios

In this paper, we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for U.S. Dollar denominated Global bonds of 12 emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997–2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a “customized benchmark”, and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation.     

Syndicated loans in emerging markets

There has been a considerable expansion of the volume of syndicated loans in emerging markets in the recent years. We provide the first analysis of the determinants of the decision of banks to syndicate a loan on a sample of loan facilities from 50 emerging countries. We show the significant role of loan characteristics and of financial development, banking regulation, and legal institutions, in the decision to syndicate a loan. We support the efforts of authorities to increase banking competition and efficiency, and to implement binding banking regulation on capital requirement to promote the expansion of syndicated loans.     

Clustering in emerging equity markets

We consider pairwise tail behavior of return series for identifying the most important emerging markets clusters. Pairs of markets belonging to the same group present similar type and strength of interdependence during stressful times, represented by a common copula and a statistically equivalent measure of tail dependence. By collapsing data from d markets in to a group we overcome the difficult problem of finding their (higher dimensional) d-variate distribution. Results may help portfolio managers to deal with risk due to co-movements within clusters. We provide examples on how this can be done. Our study contributes to the discussion about the international association among stock markets during turbulent periods, and does not confirm the intuition that the observed association between extremes should be credited to linkages to leading markets. The study also confirms the importance of stock selection, particularly among the non-dominant stocks, instead of holding market-value weighed portfolios of stocks from countries within the same region.     

Capitalizing on emerging markets

Miller, R. (1998) Selling to Newly Emerging Markets, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 274 pages, ISBN 1 56720 044 3 Dixon, J. and Newman, D. (1998) Entering the Chinese Market: The Risks and Discounted Rewards, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1 56720 137 7 Bullis, D. (1998) Doing Business in Today's India, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 320 pages, ISBN 1 56720 136 9     

金融危机后新兴市场间国际储备模式变动分析

本文选取国际储备对国内生产总值的比率、国际储备与进口的比率以及国际储备对短期外债的比率三项指标,论证了主要新兴市场都采取了大量囤积国际储备的模式.但是当金融危机发生时,他们对国际储备的使用呈现了两种不同的方式:一种是大量减持国际储备;另一种是保持国际储备规模基本稳定.国际储备变动方式的不同反映了囤积国际储备的不同动机.大量减持的国家是为了发挥储备的自我保险作用,而保持储备基本稳定的主要动机包括提升国家信用和经济实力、综合考虑下的谨慎使用以及重商主义动机.     

The big emerging markets

During his tenure as Under Secretary of Commerce, the author was one of the architects of the Clinton administration's Big Emerging Markets policy under Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He is now dean of the Yale School of Management. The Clinton policy emerged out of a growing conviction that some ten markets will account for the overwhelming growth potential in world imports, not to mention commensurate growth in economic and political influence around the world. These markets include, in Asia—the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, Indonesia and India; in Africa—South Africa; in Central Europe—Poland and Turkey; and in Latin America—Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The administration concluded that, because many of these countries still have important state sectors, and because virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments, U.S. companies need the U.S. government at their side to win a fair hearing. What is more, because of the intensity of foreign competition and the capital demands on these countries, international competitors will be public/private partnerships in which foreign governments provide concessionary financing and aggressive advocacy to support their companies' efforts.This presentation is based on the author's speeches during his tenure as Under Secretary for International Trade of the U.S. Department of Commerce, June 1993 to October 1995.     

International R&D spillovers in emerging markets: The impact of trade and foreign direct investment

While economic theory predicts that growth in developing countries will gain significantly from technology spillovers, the empirical evidence on this issue remains relatively scarce. The present study focuses on a panel of 27 transition and 20 developed countries between 1990 and 2006 and uses the latest developments in panel unit root and cointegration techniques to disentangle the effects of international spillovers via inflows of trade and FDI on total factor productivity (TFP). The findings show that imports remain the main channel of diffusion for both sets of countries, while FDI, although statistically significant, has a lower impact on productivity of the recipients. The domestic R&D capital stock plays an active role in Western Europe while in the Eastern part it is less significant owing to lower levels, transitional disinvestment and relative obsolescence. Human capital affects TFP directly as a factor of production as well as indirectly by enhancing a country's absorptive capacity. In aggregate, the results show that transition countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia seem to enjoy bigger productivity gains from the international diffusion process than their Western counterparts.